研究者詳細 - 吉野　直行

論文 - 吉野　直行

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日本共済協会業務研究会報告アジアの経済・金融情勢と日本への示唆

吉野直行

共済と保険（共済保険研究会） 57 （ 12 ） 4 - 9 2015年12月

共著, ISSN 2187-1795

CiNii Research

Adjustments of Capital Account Restrictions and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia

Naoyuki Yoshino, Sahoko Kaji, Tamon Asonuma

Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy （World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte Ltd） 6 （ 3 ） 2015年10月

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1793-9941

This paper discusses adjustments of capital account restrictions and exchange rate regimes in East Asia. Monetary authorities have two options for these adjustments: Gradual adjustments and rapid adjustments. We analyze the costs and benefits for both adjustment options in each area, i.e., capital account restrictions and exchange rate regimes. The paper provides prominent country cases for each adjustment option to emphasize the benefits for policymakers. We then propose four transition policy options for East Asian countries aiming to relax capital account restrictions and increase flexibility in exchange rates from fixed regimes with capital account controls.

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インフラの経済効果の変化とそのファイナンス手法 (特集社会インフラの再検討)

中東雅樹, 吉野直行

フィナンシャル・レビュー（財務省財務総合政策研究所 ; [1986]-） 2015 （ 4 ） 77 - 94 2015年10月

共著, ISSN 0912-5892

CiNii Research

クラウドファンディングを活用した「ふるさと投資ファンド」

吉野直行, 青山直子

信託フォーラム = Shintaku forum （日本加除出版） 4 83 - 90 2015年09月

共著, ISSN 2188-4773

CiNii Research

投資信託のさらなる普及に向けた費用体系を考える : 投資家、運用会社、販売会社のインセンティブが一致する仕組みが重要

吉野直行, 青山直子

金融財政事情（金融財政事情研究会 ; [1950]-） 66 （ 33 ） 34 - 39 2015年08月

共著, ISSN 1345-3033

CiNii Research

Dynamic Analysis of the Exchange Rate Regime: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in East Asia

Naoyuki Yoshino, Sahoko Kaji, Tamon Asonuma

REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS （WILEY-BLACKWELL） 19 （ 3 ） 624 - 637 2015年08月

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1363-6669

This paper discusses exchange rate policies in East Asia. In particular, we explore whether actual policies that have been implemented by East Asian countries after the Asian Financial Crisis follow or deviate from theoretically desirable policies over the medium and long terms. On theoretical analysis, we show the relative superiority of a basket-peg regime with the basket weight rule when compared with a floating regime implementing the interest rate rule or money supply rule. For countries that currently adopt a fixed exchange rate regime, they would be better off shifting toward either a basket-peg or a floating regime over the medium term. A shift to a basket peg is more preferred when compared with a shift to a floating regime when the exchange rate fluctuations are large.

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アジア経済と信託の活用 (信託経済コンファレンス : わが国におけるエネルギーの課題と信託の活用可能性)

吉野直行

信託（信託協会）（ 261 ） 111 - 131 2015年02月

共著, ISSN 0386-1368

CiNii Research

Foreword

Naoyuki Yoshino

Renminbi Internationalization: Achievements, Prospects and Challenges （Brookings Institution Press） 1 - 241 2015年01月

共著

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An Analysis of Challenges Faced by Japan’s Economy and Abenomics

タギザーデヘサーリ, ファルハード

The Japanese Political Economy 40 （ 3-4 ） 1 - 26 2015年

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 2329-194X

Abstract: “Abenomics” refers to the economic policies advocated by Shinzo Abe, who became prime minister of Japan for a second time when his Liberal Democratic Party won an overwhelming majority in the general election in December 2012. Abenomics is distinguished by a set of policies comprising “three arrows”: (1) aggressive monetary policy, (2) fiscal consolidation, and (3) a growth strategy. The Japanese economy faces an aging population and increasing social welfare expenses. No other country has experienced such rapid growth of the number of retired people. In this article we will explain all three aspects of Abenomics, examine the current state of the Japanese economy, and explore what further remedies may be required if Japan is to recover from its long-term deflation. We will look at such proposals as hometown investment trust funds, postponement of the retirement age by introducing a flexible wage rate system, and changing the pension system to 401(k) style instruments.

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Macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on emerging and developed economies in a model incorporating monetary variables

Taghizadeh-Hesary, F., Yoshino, N.

Economics and Policy of Energy and the Environment 2015 （ 2 ） 51 - 75 2015年

共著, 査読有り

Effectiveness of the Easing of Monetary Policy in the Japanese Economy, incorporating Energy Prices

Yoshino, N., Taghizadeh-Hesary, F.

Journal of Comparative Asian Development 14 （ 2 ） 227 - 248 2015年

共著, 査読有り

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Determining the optimal structure of government debt in Indonesia

Ahmad Danu Prasetyo, Naoyuki Yoshino

Global Business and Economics Review （Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.） 17 （ 4 ） 445 - 466 2015年

共著, ISSN 1745-1329

Recently, there has been an increasing tendency for switching external debts into domestic borrowings in many developing countries. In this paper, we develop a simple general equilibrium model to determine the optimal share for domestic and external government debts in Indonesia. We emphasise the important role of demand in forming the optimal structure of government debts. We found that both domestic and external government debt markets are linked from both the perspectives of demand and supply. In addition, the back testing simulation suggests that the Indonesian government has to reduce the level of its external debt. Through a dynamic recursive simulation, it is suggested that, in the long run, the government must not hold any external debt while the debt-to-GDP ratio is at the 16%-17% level.

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Analysis of credit ratings for small and medium-sized enterprises: Evidence from Asia

Yoshino, N., Taghizadeh-Hesary, F.

Asian Development Review 32 （ 2 ） 18 - 37 2015年

共著, 査読有り

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The sovereign debt crisis: why Greece, but not Japan?

Naoyuki Yoshino, Uwe Vollmer

Asia Europe Journal （Springer Verlag） 12 （ 3 ） 325 - 344 2014年09月

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1612-1031

This paper asks why Japan has not yet suffered from a sovereign debt crisis, although its gross public debt as a percentage of GDP is much higher than in Greece. We use a simple stylized model to explain the occurrence of both a fundamental and a speculative debt crisis. We apply this model to both countries and derive some hypotheses about why investors are still ready to hold Japanese Government Bonds. In particular, we point to the significance of domestic debt holdings, to the central bank’s government debt purchases, to investors’ access to “safe havens,” and to the role of an autonomous monetary policy. We also analyze potential challenges to Japan’s long-term fiscal situation, resulting from its aging population.

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金融経済教育向上の必要性と背景 (特集金融リテラシー : 誰のために向上させるのか)

吉野直行, 青山直子

月刊金融ジャーナル（金融ジャーナル社） 55 （ 9 ） 70 - 73 2014年09月

共著, ISSN 0453-9176

CiNii Research

Dynamic Transition of Exchange Rate Regime in China

Naoyuki Yoshino, Sahoko Kaji, Tamon Asonuma

CHINA & WORLD ECONOMY （WILEY-BLACKWELL） 22 （ 3 ） 36 - 55 2014年07月

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1671-2234

The paper considers the optimal transition path for China's exchange rate regime. How can China successfully make the shift from the current dollar peg regime to a more desirable regime, whether a basket peg or a floating regime? To answer this question, we develop a dynamic small open economy general equilibrium model. We construct four transition policies based on a basket peg or a floating regime and compare the welfare gains of these policies relative to maintaining the dollar peg regime. Two main results are derived from the quantitative analysis using Chinese data from 1999Q1 to 2010Q4. First, following a gradual adjustment to a basket peg regime is the most appropriate path for China to take, with minimal welfare losses associated with the shift in the exchange rate regime. Second, a sudden shift to the basket peg is the second best solution, and is superior to a sudden shift to floating because the monetary authority can efficiently determine optimal weights to attach to currencies in the basket to achieve policy goals once they adopt a basket peg regime.

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会長講演最適自己資本比率と社会資本の経済効果

吉野直行

三田学会雑誌（慶應義塾経済学会） 107 （ 2 ） 139 - 156 2014年07月

共著, ISSN 0026-6760

会長講演本稿では, バーゼルの自己資本比率規制は, 国ごとに, その比率を変えることが望ましいことを説明する。その理由としては, 国によって, 銀行の金融市場に占めるシェアも異なり, 銀行行動も異なり, 株価や地価の動きも異なるからである。国を越えて銀行が行動する場合には, 貸出を行う相手国のバーゼル規制に従うことが望ましいことも示される。後半では, インフラ投資の経済効果の実証分析が説明される。インフラ投資には, 直接効果と間接効果が存在し, インフラの整備によって民間企業がその地域に入って来るかどうか, 民間企業の生産性がインフラ整備によって効率化されるかが, 重要な点である。インフラ整備の経済効果が低下しないためには, 資金面で, 民間資金を導入して, インフラの経済効果を高める必要がある。最後に, ふるさと投資ファンドのような民間資金による「ふるさとの投資」を進める方策について説明する。This study explains why it is desirable to change the ratio of the Basel capital adequacy for each country. Some reasons for this are that, depending on the country, the financial market share held by banks, bank behaviors, and share and land prices differ. When banks operate beyond national borders, this study shows that complying with Basel regulations in the country where lending is occurring is desirable. The second half of the study explains the empirical analysis of the economic effects of infrastructure investment. Infrastructure investments have direct and indirect effects, and an important point to note is that depending on the status of development of said infrastructure, it influences the decision of whether private enterprises enter the region and affect the efficiency of their productivity.From a funding aspect, it is necessary to increase the economic effects of infrastructure through the introduction of private funds to avoid a decrease in the economic effects of infrastructure development. Finally, this study discusses the measures for the promotion of Furusato Investments (microinvestments in local enterprises aiming at the development of local economies) by private funds such as the Furusato Investment Fund.