論文 - 吉野　直行

高齢化のもとでの財政金融政策の有効性低下と雇用体系の構造改革

吉野 直行, 宮本 弘暁, 高野 佳佑

立命館国際研究 = Ritsumeikan kokusai kenkyu / The Ritsumeikan journal of international studies （立命館大学国際関係学会）  33 （ 4 ） 89 - 101 2021年03月

共著,  ISSN  0915-2008

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高齢化が財政政策の効果に与える影響—特集 人口高齢化のもとでの財政金融政策の有効性

宮本 弘曉, 吉野 直行

フィナンシャル・レビュー / 財務省財務総合政策研究所 編 （財務省財務総合政策研究所）  2021 （ 2 ） 49 - 67 2021年03月

共著,  ISSN  0912-5892

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A model for calculating optimal credit guarantee fee for small and medium-sized enterprises

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Fukuda L., Rasoulinezhad E.

Economic Modelling （Economic Modelling）  95   361 - 373 2021年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  02649993

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A credit guarantee scheme is a method for promoting lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by formal financial institutions. It reduces information asymmetry and SMEs’ collateral burden, but at a cost of a credit guarantee fee. The paper provides a theoretical model for calculating the optimal credit guarantee fee. In the empirical part, this study examines whether selected macroeconomic variables and financial health of SMEs have a statistically significant impact on default risk ratio of loans to SMEs – the main determinant of the fee. Principle component analysis (PCA) and two vector error correction model (VECM) models are applied on a sample of 1363 SMEs. Empirical results support our hypothesis that the credit guarantee fee should be different for sound and risky SMEs in order to avoid moral hazard, but also according to the macroeconomic state.

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Default risks, moral hazard and market-based solution: Evidence from renewable energy market in Bangladesh

Hossain M., Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Economic Modelling （Economic Modelling）  95   489 - 499 2021年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  02649993

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This paper analyzes a unique case of default risks associated with a solar homes program in Bangladesh, implemented by the Infrastructure Development Company Limited (IDCOL). Out of 4.3 million solar homes adopter households, about 1.2 million households became default in paying their due payment of the solar home system. We explain the behavior of the customers in a hyperbolic discounting framework where various shocks increase the risks of default. Further we extend the model to explain moral hazard problem under the refinancing program structure in the absence of an optimal contract. For empirical analysis, we apply the Cox's proportional hazard model to study the factors responsible for default and instantaneous hazard rates. Using primary survey data from 1300 households, we find that various exogenous shocks and financial constraints can explain the default situation of the customers along with a portion of the default customers being adversely selected in the context of moral hazard problem, which is consistent with the prediction of our theoretical model. We propose a market-based solution to the problem by withdrawing subsidies from the program.

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Covid-19 and Optimal Portfolio Selection for Investment in Sustainable Development Goals

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Otsuka M.

Finance Research Letters （Finance Research Letters）  38   101695 2021年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  15446123

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The Covid-19 pandemic and global economic recession has shrunk global energy demand and collapsed fossil fuel prices. Therefore, renewable energy projects are losing their competitiveness. This endangers the achievement of several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Various consulting companies define the SDGs differently. Institutional investors hire consulting companies and allocate their investment based on the consultants’ suggestions. This paper theoretically shows that the current allocation of investors by considering SDG based on various consulting companies will lead to distortion in the investment portfolio. The desired portfolio allocation can be achieved by taxing pollution and waste such as CO , NO , and plastics, globally with the same tax rate. Global taxation on pollution will lead to the desired portfolio allocation of assets. 2 x

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The necessity of financial inclusion for enhancing the economic impacts of remittances

Chuc A.T., Li W., Phi N.T.M., Le Q.T., Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Borsa Istanbul Review （Borsa Istanbul Review）  22 （ 1 ） 47 - 56 2021年

共著,  ISSN  22148450

　概要を見る

International remittances by immigrants to their home countries is key in the funding development in migrant-sending countries. This study investigates the combined impact of international remittance inflows and financial inclusion on economic growth using a sample of 60 low- and middle-income countries over 1996–2017. The study constructs a composite financial inclusion index using principal component analysis. The results show that financial inclusion could strengthen the growth-enhancing effect of remittances. Thus, the study helps explain the development dilemma of remittance inflows and financial inclusion in migrant-sending countries to boost their economic growth.

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ESG/Green investment and allocation of portfolio assets

Yoshino N., Yuyama T.

Estudios de Economia Aplicada （Estudios de Economia Aplicada）  39 （ 3 ） 1 - 16 2021年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著,  ISSN  11333197

　概要を見る

This article examines the current portfolio allocation in ESG and Green projects. Traditional investments focus on rates of return and risks associated with investment. Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) or Green factors are additional components that investors have to pay attention to. Environmental protection is very important. However, we see that the current different definitions of ESG or Green factors lead to distorted allocations in portfolio investments. In order to bring portfolio allocations to a desirable direction, global taxation on pollution or creation of an accurate Green credit rating based on emissions of various pollutants are recommended.

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Unconventional monetary policy and income disparity in an aging society

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Rasoulinezhad E.

Journal of Economic Policy Reform （Journal of Economic Policy Reform）  25 （ 4 ） 451 - 470 2021年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著,  ISSN  17487870

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The main objective of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy is inflation targeting; however, it may be associated with the recently increased income disparity in Japan. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimation model, this study conducted in the context of an aging society revealed that the bank’s monetary policy increased income inequality through increased financial asset prices, resulting in a widening of the income gap. We also find that in the long run, the aging population will increase income disparity in Japan; however, tax policy will partially mitigate the adverse effect on income inequality. Unconventional monetary policy will not bring a desirable result for the Japanese economy and the nation as a whole. In addition, the government needs to revise the incremental tax system so that wealthier groups pay more tax than before. In addition, expanding the tax system by adopting the carbon taxation scheme would be beneficial. The government with this kind of tax can pursue two major goals: reducing poverty and environmental pollution, which are ongoing challenges in Japan.

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KNOWING THE UNKNOWNS - FRESH INSIGHTS FROM AN UNKNOWN STOCK MARKET

Sharma S.S., Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan （Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan）  24 （ 4 ） 641 - 658 2021年

共著,  ISSN  14108046

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The goal of our study is to examine the impact of natural disasters on the South Pacific Stock Exchange. We use daily time-series data for Fiji's stock market for the period 2000-2019. Our empirical framework is based on three factor regression models, namely the market model, the Fama and French three-factor model, and the Fama and French five-factor model. We find evidence that natural disasters in Fiji reduce abnormal returns in the most relevant five-factor model. Additionally, we provide evidence that different types of natural disasters have heterogeneous effects on Fiji's stock market. Our findings are further supported by a robustness check.

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Introduction: Investment in Startups and Small Business Financing

Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Naoyuki Yoshino, Chul Ju Kim, Peter J. Morgan, Daehee Yoon

World Scientific Series in Finance 17   IX - XVII 2021年

共著,  ISSN  2010-1082

財政安定化条件ドーマー条件の再考察 : 国債市場の需給からの新条件の導出—Rethinking of Fiscal Sustainability Condition : Revised Domar Condition based on Supply and Demand for Government Bond

吉野 直行, 宮本 弘暁

ファイナンシャル・プランニング研究 / 日本FP学会「ファイナンシャル・プランニング研究」編集委員会 編 （日本FP学会）  21   21 - 25 2021年

共著,  ISSN  1346-5112

Internal and external determinants of housing price boom in Hong Kong

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Mortha A., Chiu A., Naderi N.

Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan （Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan）  23 （ 4 ） 597 - 620 2020年12月

共著,  ISSN  14108046

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Hong Kong's housing market witnessed a dramatic housing price appreciation in recent years, with the price index for private domestic housing units being three times higher than ten years ago. This trend is supported by both internal and external factors, as illustrated in this paper. By developing a theoretical model and an empirical analysis on the key variables influencing housing prices using monthly data from 1999 to 2018, we find that the main drivers of housing price appreciation are from the demand side and include income level, money supply and inflation. The main contribution of this study is the quantification of the role of Mainland China's macroeconomic factors in housing price booms in Hong Kong. Our study shows that capital inflow from and inflation and recessions in Mainland China contribute to increasing housing prices in Hong Kong because the city's real estate is seen as a way to preserve asset value. These findings call for the need for control of capital inflow between the two economies as well as for stricter regulations against empty houses in Hong Kong.

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The COVID-19 Crisis: Policy Recommendations for Japan

Yoshino N., Hendriyetty N.

Economists' Voice （Economists' Voice）  17 （ 1 ） 1 - 9 2020年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  1553-3832

　概要を見る

Japan economy is dominated by Small and Medium enterprises. It covers around 99.7% of all enterprises operated in Japan and employs around 70% of the working population and account for a large portion of economic output. But, like other SMEs in the world, they also the ones that have hardly hit by COVID-19 quarantine and business closures. Japanese government made emergency loans and credit guarantee to assist SMEs. However, moral hazard problems of banks and SMEs have to be remedied. In the capital market, many investors take risk-averse behavior to anticipate further measures. Infrastructure investments are most needed in Asian region yet finance for infrastructure investments would face with shortage of funds due to low rate of return and risks. Private financing by long term investors such as pension funds and insurance better be directed to support infrastructure investment. Spillover tax revenues could be partly directed to increase the rate of return. The Japanese economy faces with aging population which would widen fiscal deficits unless postponement of retirement age and productivity-based wage rate rather than seniority wage rate facing with this crisis. Therefore, Japan government need to look into innovative policies options for sustainable economic growth.

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Determinants of international remittance inflow in Asia-Pacific middle-income countries

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Otsuka M.

Economic Analysis and Policy （Economic Analysis and Policy）  68   29 - 43 2020年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  03135926

　概要を見る

The international remittances by immigrants to their home countries is one of the key sources of funding development in middle-income countries, especially in migrant-sending countries. This study assesses the determinants of international remittances using panel data from 22 Asia-Pacific middle-income countries, most of which are well-known migrant-sending countries, using the generalized method of moments (GMM) method. The results show that the gap in the per capita GDP growth rate between origin and destination countries, gross enrollment ratio of secondary education, and trade openness are positively associated with remittance inflow. On the other hand, net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows are negatively correlated with remittance inflows. The results of this study can be interpreted as a paradigm shift for acquiring foreign capital in middle-income countries, from remittances in earlier stages of development to more FDI inflows when the country has the pre-requisites for absorbing foreign capital. The remittance inflows should be highly important, especially in the early stage of economic development, as additional incomes, or investment sources for those who live in middle-income countries.

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The impact of monetary and tax policy on income inequality in Japan

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Shimizu S.

World Economy （World Economy）  43 （ 10 ） 2600 - 2621 2020年10月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  03785920

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This paper assesses the effects of the most recent monetary policy behaviour of the Bank of Japan (in particular, zero interest rate policy and negative interest rate policy) and Japanese tax policy on income inequality in this country during the period of 2002Q1 to 2017Q3. The vector error correction model (VECM) that develops in this research shows that increase in money stock (m1) through Quantitative Easing (QE) and Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) policies of the BOJ significantly increases the income inequality. On the contrary, Japanese tax policy was effective in reducing the income inequality. Variance decomposition results show that increasing of income inequality by monetary policy is larger when comparing to decreasing effects of tax policy on income inequality. Cointegration and VECM results show that monetary policy has both short-run and long-run impacts but for tax policy paper could not find any significant short-run impact on income inequality. In addition, paper found that technological progress only in long-run can reduce the income inequality by increasing the marginal productivity of labour with positive impacts on employment and wages.

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Autologous Hematopoietic Recovery after Unrelated Umbilical Cord Blood Transplantation with Myeloablative Conditioning for Acute Myelogenous Leukemia.

Gomyo A, Nakasone H, Wada H, Kawamura S, Yoshino N, Takeshita J, Yoshimura K, Misaki Y, Tanihara A, Akahoshi Y, Kusuda M, Tamaki M, Kawamura K, Kimura SI, Kako S, Kanda Y

Internal medicine (Tokyo, Japan) 59 （ 19 ） 2409 - 2414 2020年10月

共著,  ISSN  0918-2918

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Enhansing financial connectivity between Asia and Europe: Implications for infrastructure convergence between the two regions

Naoyuki YOSHINO, Monzur Hossain, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

Asian Economic Papers (MIT Press) 19 （ 2 ） 84 - 101 2020年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り

Comments on Reforms and Crises in Government Statistics: The Case of Japan

Yoshino Naoyuki

ASIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS 19 （ 2 ） 38 - 40 2020年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  1535-3516

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Enhancing Financial Connectivity Between Asia and Europe: Implications for Infrastructure Convergence Between the Two Regions*

Yoshino Naoyuki, Hossain Monzur, Taghizadeh-Hesary Farhad

ASIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS （Asian Economic Papers）  19 （ 2 ） 84 - 101 2020年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  1535-3516

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This paper explores the methods and policies that could enhance the financial connectivity between Europe and Asia in infrastructure investments. We argue that if Asian governments agree to enter into a long-term repayment commitment with a share of spillover tax revenues of public infrastructure projects under a regulatory framework, it could attract European long-term institutional funds in Asia’s infrastructure projects. This approach will reduce divergence in infrastructure between the two regions and encourage regional connectivity. With some empirical evidence, this paper highlights the operational risks and methods of sharing spillover revenue for infrastructure projects.

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From window guidance to interbank rates: Tracing the transition of monetary policy in Japan and China

Angrick S., Yoshino N.

International Journal of Central Banking （International Journal of Central Banking）  16 （ 3 ） 279 - 316 2020年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  18154654

　概要を見る

Japanese monetary policy up to 1991 was based on a mix of price-based and quantity-based instruments and targets. Echoes of this system are today found in Chinese monetary policy. We explore the transition of these two regimes using historical statistics, computational text analysis, and structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models. Specifically, we examine the role of the interbank rate and “window guidance,” a policy by which authorities communicate target quotas for lending growth directly to commercial banks. We empirically demonstrate the declining effectiveness of quantity measures and the increasing importance of price measures and provide recommendations for managing this transition.