論文 - 吉野　直行

Enhancing private infrastructure financing through capturing spillover effect: Conceptual development and an empirical case study of Vietnam’s expressways

Yoshino N., Abe M., Truong H.T.

Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development （Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development）  8 （ 5 ）  2024年

共著,  ISSN  25727923

　概要を見る

While infrastructure provides necessary public services and is vital for the socio-economic development of a nation, public funds alone cannot finance all infrastructure needs in society, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, where many countries are facing budget deficits. Although private financing schemes, such as public-private partnerships (PPPs) and land value capture, have been considered intensively, they have yet to produce adequate private capital flows to infrastructure projects due to a lack of incentives for private investors. Against the background, this paper proposes a new financing mechanism in which governments might divert some of the increased tax revenue from the spillover effects of newly constructed infrastructures to fund the private sector through grants or subsidies. The empirical work in Vietnam shows a significant increase in tax revenues after completing two expressways, supporting our idea about spillover effects, which includes small-and medium-sized enterprise (SME) development. This study’s results suggest that spillover effects can bring new opportunities for governments and multilateral development banks (MDBs) to implement infrastructure projects with greater private sector involvement in the region. It also proposes some financial schemes, such as land capture and financing for business startups, including SMEs, to enhance the spillover effects of infrastructure.

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INVITED PAPER - COMPARISON OF VARIOUS FISCAL POLICIES IN THE FACE OF DIFFERENT DEMOGRAPHIC STAGES

Yoshino N., Kameda K., Miyamoto H., Lu Z.

Singapore Economic Review （Singapore Economic Review）  69 （ 4 ） 1473 - 1497 2024年

共著,  ISSN  02175908

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This study examines the impact of aging on the effectiveness of various fiscal expenditures, including government consumption, one-time government transfers to households, public investment and R&D spending, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Our findings reveal that (1) Aging enhances the effects of the transfer on augmenting GDP. (2) Regardless of aging, R&D expenditure consistently stands out over all time spans, with younger society benefiting more. (3) Public investment ranks second among for different fiscal policies in the long run, while shows bigger impact in younger society. (4) One-time transfer has only a temporary effect and is the least effective in boosting GDP in both young and old societies. (5) Multipliers for public investment and R&D expenditure increase with the accumulation of public capital and TFP. Their multiplier of young society is larger than old society because impact on consumption is much more effective.

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Diversified ESG Evaluation by Rating Agencies and Net Carbon Tax to Regain Optimal Portfolio Allocation

Yoshino N., Yuyama T., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Asian Economic Papers （Asian Economic Papers）  22 （ 3 ） 81 - 96 2023年09月

共著,  ISSN  15353516

　概要を見る

Environmental, Society, and Governance (ESG) investments have become increasingly popular in recent years, and, at the same time, many rating agencies provide ESG scores for each company. This means that the ESG investment model may have moved from the traditional two-factor model of risk-return to a three-factor model adding an ESG component to it. This paper highlights the potential for distor tion of asset allocation through the shift from traditional risk-return considerations to ESG score considerations. This is equally true for green bonds, resulting in the potential for asset allocation to be distor ted by green bond criteria. Fur thermore, we show that imposing a net carbon tax on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a measure to correct this distor tion in asset allocation and make asset allocation more risk-return based, in addressing global environmental issues.

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Financial literacy, behavioral traits, and ePayment adoption and usage in Japan

Long Trinh Quang, Morgan Peter J. J., Yoshino Naoyuki

FINANCIAL INNOVATION （Financial Innovation）  9 （ 1 ） 101 2023年06月

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This study investigates how financial literacy and behavioral traits affect the adoption of electronic payment (ePayment) services in Japan. We construct a financial literacy index using a representative sample of 25,000 individuals from the Bank of Japan’s 2019 Financial Literacy Survey. We then analyze the relationship between this index and the extensive and intensive usage of two types of payment services: electronic money (e-money) and mobile payment apps. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find that higher financial literacy is positively associated with a higher likelihood of adopting ePayment services. The empirical results suggest that individuals with higher financial literacy use payment services more frequently. We also find that risk-averse people are less likely to adopt and use ePayment services, whereas people with herd behavior tend to adopt and use ePayment services more. Our empirical results also suggest that the effects of financial literacy on the adoption and use of ePayment differ among people with different behavioral traits.

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Sustainable Financing Strategies for the SMEs: Two Alternative Models

Hossain M., Yoshino N., Tsubota K.

Sustainability (Switzerland) （Sustainability (Switzerland)）  15 （ 11 ）  2023年06月

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　概要を見る

A sustainable financing strategy for SMEs should aim to enhance a low-cost collateral-free supply of loans to SMEs with good track records of repayments to banks. In this paper, we suggest two alternative financing models for SMEs that address certain borrowing constraints of SMEs. First, the model incorporates institutional mechanisms involving the government, banks, and SMEs. The strategy employs a two-pronged approach: (i) the government enhances the supply of loanable funds to banks, and (ii) identifies good SME borrowers through skills development programs and introduces them to banks. This model will reduce default risk and allow banks to offer lower-interest and collateral-free credit to SMEs, thereby improving their access to finance and performance. Second, the model could be extended to accommodate digital finance using a data-driven credit risk score of the borrowers to reduce banks’ default risks and transaction costs with or without government funds. The proposed model could resolve the moral hazard and selection bias problems. Our proposed models are based on a public-private partnership approach and therefore could solve certain borrowing constraints of SMEs. Our empirical results support the model outcomes and therefore are consistent with the predictions of our theoretical models.

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SMEs and carbon neutrality in ASEAN: the need to revisit sustainability policies

Yoshino N., Rasoulinezhad E., Phoumin H., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja （Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja）  36 （ 2 ）  2023年

共著,  ISSN  1331677X

　概要を見る

Most rules and regulations for protecting the environment and reducing greenhouse gas emissions target large enterprises. Although small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have major shares in most Asian economies, they remain outside the purview of most environmental rules and regulations. The primary purpose of this study is to assess the association between SMEs’ activities and carbon emissions in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries from 2010 to 2020. To this end, a fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) model was developed. The results show that SMEs’ activities do not align with environmental protection goals and sustainable development, as the estimation results revealed their significant contributions to CO2 emissions. Other practical implications of this study for carbon-neutral SMEs are introducing green finance policies, revisiting the environmental and carbon reduction rules and regulations that cover SMEs, and changing banks’ lending mechanisms based on SMEs’ green economic performance.

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Aftermarket performance of green IPOs and portfolio allocation

Mumtaz Muhammad Zubair, Yoshino Naoyuki

GREEN FINANCE （Green Finance）  5 （ 3 ） 321 - 342 2023年

共著,  ISSN  2643-1092

　概要を見る

This study examines the aftermarket performance of high-green and low-green IPO and how green IPOs can optimize portfolio allocation. We assume the higher level of greenness increases investors’ participation in IPOs. To this end, we develop the utility function and determine that investors prefer to participate in new issues when firms account for greenness measures. This study proposes the global aspects of green measure: the desired level of greenness a firm maintains. We find that IPOs in our sample are far below the global standards of greenness. This evidence suggests they must adopt the necessary actions to make the environment green. Another significant contribution of this study is to measure the performance of high and low-green IPOs in short-and long-run horizons. This study reveals that high-green IPOs are less underpriced. This study estimates the effect of greenness on initial returns and finds an inverse relationship suggesting that high-green IPOs are less underpriced due to lower risk associated with new issues. In terms of measuring longer-term performance, this study determines that high-green IPOs underperform less than low-green IPOs.

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コロナ後を見据えた財政・金融政策

吉野 直行, 岩田 一政, 清水 順子, 松元 崇, 井堀 利宏

現代経済学の潮流 （一般社団法人 日本経済学会）  2023 （ 0 ） 239 - 293 2023年

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Measuring concentration in the Japanese loan and deposit markets

Uesugi I., Hiraga K., Manabe M., Yoshino N.

Japan and the World Economy （Japan and the World Economy）  63   101148 - 101148 2022年09月

共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  09221425

　概要を見る

This study is the first to exhaustively calculate the degree of concentration in regional banking markets using the outstanding amount of loans and deposits at branches and headquarters of financial institutions in Japan. Calculating the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for loans and deposits for each prefecture and for each urban employment area for the period 2005–2019, we show differences in the HHI across regions and developments in these differences over time. Furthermore, we decompose the level of and changes in the HHI into two components: the contribution of the number of financial institutions and the contribution of the deviation of individual financial institutions’ market share from the mean. We also examine the extent of the increase in the HHI caused by mergers of financial institutions and its persistence. The main results obtained are as follows. First, while the HHIs for loans and deposits show an upward trend, the HHI for loans in large metropolitan areas, which was already low, continued to further decline, indicating that competition among financial institutions in large metropolitan regions, which already was severe, has continued to intensify. Second, increases in the HHI are not only due to reductions in the number of financial institutions but also to the growing variation in financial institutions’ market share. And third, while an increase in the loan HHI due to a merger of financial institutions is sustained for a certain period, the duration of such an increase tends to be shorter in regions with a low market concentration.

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INTRODUCTION: WAYS TO ACHIEVE GREEN ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND MITIGATE GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE POST-COVID-19 ERA

Taghizadeh-Hesary Farhad, Yoshino Naoyuki, Mohsin Muhammad, Mirza Nawazish

CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS （WORLD SCIENTIFIC PUBL CO PTE LTD）  13 （ 03 ）  2022年05月

共著,  ISSN  2010-0078

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Nonlinear tail dependence between the housing and energy markets

Stenvall D., Hedström A., Yoshino N., Uddin G.S., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Energy Economics （Energy Economics）  106 2022年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著,  ISSN  01409883

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This paper examines the quantile dependence between energy commodities (oil, coal, and natural gas) and the real housing returns of the nine US census divisions for the period 1991–2019. In contrast to the literature on the association between oil and housing markets, we contribute by studying the effect of additional commodities on the housing market returns. We use a cross-quantilogram and quantile regression approach and find regional variation in the impact of energy commodities on housing returns. The effect within the same region varies over the quantile distributions. In general, we observe that all energy commodities are negatively associated with real housing returns. Significant correlations are found more often when the oil and housing returns are in similar quantiles. Coal and natural gas show a stronger relationship with higher quantiles of housing returns. Further, the results for coal and natural gas remains relatively stable after controlling for macroeconomic variables.

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LEVERAGING ON ENERGY SECURITY TO ALLEVIATE POVERTY IN ASIAN ECONOMIES

Taghizadeh-Hesary Farhad, Zakari Abdulrasheed, Yoshino Naoyuki, Khan Irfan

SINGAPORE ECONOMIC REVIEW （Singapore Economic Review）  68 （ 04 ） 1063 - 1090 2022年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著,  ISSN  0217-5908

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This study examines the role of energy security in poverty reduction in the 12 poorest Asian economies from 2000 to 2019. We postulated an energy security index using principal component analysis. We adopted the system generalized method of a moment technique to manage endogeneity and dynamism in the model. For robustness, we applied a panel-corrected standard error (PCSE). We found a negative relationship between energy security and poverty reduction, suggesting that energy security helps reduce poverty. We conclude that energy security promotes sustainable poverty alleviation and recommends feed-in tariffs, net metering, tax credits, and energy resource diversification away from fossil fuels.

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Greenness, mood, and portfolio allocation: A cross-country analysis

Mumtaz M.Z., Yoshino N.

Environmental Challenges （Environmental Challenges）  5 2021年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

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This study estimates the utility function, including the rate of return, riskiness, greenness, and mood across selected countries. We incorporate mood as investors’ sensitivity or momentum towards environmental issues. This study assumes that higher sensitivity of environmental issues compels the firms to follow green measures. We report that the proportion of investment is higher if the firms account for greenness measures. This study compares the results of five Asian economies and reports that Japanese and South Korean firms are following the greenness measures. However, the firms locating in developing countries are far behind in implementing greenness measures. Our regression results also suggest that greenness and mood x greenness positively influence stock returns.

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Power purchase agreements with incremental tariffs in local currency: An innovative green finance tool

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Rasoulinezhad E., Rimaud C.

Global Finance Journal （Global Finance Journal）  50 2021年11月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著,  ISSN  10440283

　概要を見る

Investment volume in green projects, specifically in the green electricity market, suffers from limitations such as inadequate long-term financing, various risks, and a low rate of return on investment. Renewable energy power purchase agreements (PPAs), as a direct legal contract between a power provider and a power buyer, are one of the most popular instruments to increase investment. In this study, we model an adjusted PPA in the local currency framework to lower exchange rate risk and incremental tariffs by having the government pay part of the spillover tax revenues to the PPA, leading to a higher return on investment. The major conclusion of this study is that the use of tax revenue through the spillover effect of green electricity supply is a suitable source of financing for PPAs. As one policy implication, we recommend that developing countries allocate 50% of the tax revenue originating from power supply and adopt incremental PPAs to encourage private investment in green projects.

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Determinants of the Russia and Asia–Pacific energy trade

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Rasoulinezhad E., Yoshino N., Sarker T., Mirza N.

Energy Strategy Reviews （Energy Strategy Reviews）  38 2021年11月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著,  ISSN  2211467X

　概要を見る

Asia remained the largest energy consumer in 2020. The Russian Federation hopes to gain a greater share of the Asian energy market. This study examined the Russian Federation–Asia and Pacific energy trade patterns using gravity trade theory and GMM panel estimation for 17 selected Asia and Pacific economies. We found that the Russian Federation's energy exports to the Asia–Pacific region (APR) followed the Linder hypothesis, and economic growth positively influenced Russian energy exports in the region. Furthermore, The results indicated that the sanctions against Russia since 2014 stimulated an increase in Russian energy exports to the APR. To improve the region's energy security, we recommend developing an energy trading hub in the APR to increase regional pricing power.

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Greenness index: IPO performance and portfolio allocation

Mumtaz M.Z., Yoshino N.

Research in International Business and Finance （Research in International Business and Finance）  57 2021年10月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著,  ISSN  02755319

　概要を見る

This study examines how the greenness of the firm affects the short- and long-term performance of IPOs. To measure the greenness of the firm, we develop the Greenness Index based on the emissions produced. We find that the greenness of the firms operating in services and financial sectors is higher than in other sectors. To examine the short- and long-run performance of IPOs, we classify our sample into high and low green firms. In the short-run, high green firms obtain a lower return than low green firms. However, high green firms perform better than low green firms in the long-run. This study also determines the factors that cause short- and long-run performance, and the results suggest that the firm's greenness negatively influences initial returns and underperformance of IPOs. Finally, we develop a theoretical model in terms of the portfolio's allocation and assert that investors participate in high-green firms to optimize their portfolio.

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Introduction: Investment in startups and small business financing

Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Naoyuki Yoshino, Chul Ju Kim, Peter J. Morgan, Daehee Yoon

Investment In Startups And Small Business Financing    ix - xvii 2021年08月

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Analyzing the factors influencing the demand and supply of solar modules in Japan – Does financing matter

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Inagaki Y., Morgan P.J.

International Review of Economics and Finance （International Review of Economics and Finance）  74   1 - 12 2021年07月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著,  ISSN  10590560

　概要を見る

This paper analyzes the influence of certain factors on the demand and supply of solar modules by employing the fully modified ordinary least squares method using Japanese data. Our regression analysis shows that interest rates and money supply (M2) significantly impact the solar photovoltaic module supply, indicating that lower interest rates and more funding channels for the renewable energy sector will increase solar photovoltaic module production. Based on this finding, the paper concludes that, for Japan to increase its energy self-sufficiency rate, the Government of Japan should implement green financing policies, providing renewable energy business owners with a wider variety of funding channels with lower interest rates, and ultimately invigorating investments in solar photovoltaic installation.

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Economic Impacts of Carbon Tax in a General Equilibrium Framework: Empirical Study of Japan

Yoshino N., Rasoulinezhad E., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management （Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management）  23 （ 1-2 ）  2021年06月

共著,  ISSN  14643332

　概要を見る

This study tries to find new insights of implementations of carbon tax policy as a suitable way to reach the long-term zero-carbon plan. This paper explores how carbon tax can affect the macroeconomy in Japan through the structural vector autoregression (S-VAR) technique conducted for the quarterly data throughout 2005-2020. A theoretical general equilibrium model backs the empirical analysis. The major findings reveal that any increase in energy price from the carbon tax will lead to an increase in interest rate, exchange rate, and consumer price index while there is a negative relationship between energy price increase from carbon tax and real gross domestic product (GDP) in Japan. Carbon Policy Refolution (Reform+Evolution), refunding carbon tax revenues, and adaptation of long-term policy of net zero GHG emissions by 2050 with the current situation of Japan's power sectors are the major practical policies of this study.

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Analyzing the characteristics of green bond markets to facilitate green finance in the post-covid-19 world

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Phoumin H.

Sustainability (Switzerland) （Sustainability (Switzerland)）  13 （ 10 ）  2021年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

　概要を見る

The COVID-19 pandemic and the global recessions have reduced the investments in green projects globally that would endanger the achievement of the climate-related goals. Therefore, the post-COVID-19 world needs to adopt the green financial system by introducing new financial instruments. In this regard, green bonds—a type of debt instrument aiming to finance sustainable infrastructure projects—are growing in popularity. While the literature does not contest their effectiveness in fighting climate change, research highlights the high level of risks and low returns associated with this instrument. This study analyzes the green bond markets in different regions with a focus on Asia and the Pacific. It aims to fill the gap in the literature by conducting a comparative study of the characteristics, risks, and returns of green bonds based on the region. The study is based on theoretical background and empirical analysis using the data retrieved from Bloomberg New Energy Finance and the Climate Bonds Initiative. The empirical results are based on several econometrics tests using panel data analysis estimation methods, namely pooled ordinary least squares and generalized least squares random effects estimator. Our findings prove that green bonds in Asia tend to show higher returns but higher risks and higher heterogeneity. Generally, the Asian green bonds market is dominated by the banking sector, representing 60% of all issuance. Given that bonds issued by this sector tend to show lower returns than average, we recommend policies that could increase the rate of return of bonds issued by the banking sector through the use of tax spillover. In the era of post-COVID-19, diversification of issuers, with higher participation from the public sector and de-risking policies, could also be considered.

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