研究者詳細 - 吉野　直行

論文 - 吉野　直行

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Enhancing private infrastructure financing through capturing spillover effect: Conceptual development and an empirical case study of Vietnam’s expressways

Yoshino N., Abe M., Truong H.T.

Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development （Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development） 8 （ 5 ） 2024年

共著, ISSN 25727923

While infrastructure provides necessary public services and is vital for the socio-economic development of a nation, public funds alone cannot finance all infrastructure needs in society, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, where many countries are facing budget deficits. Although private financing schemes, such as public-private partnerships (PPPs) and land value capture, have been considered intensively, they have yet to produce adequate private capital flows to infrastructure projects due to a lack of incentives for private investors. Against the background, this paper proposes a new financing mechanism in which governments might divert some of the increased tax revenue from the spillover effects of newly constructed infrastructures to fund the private sector through grants or subsidies. The empirical work in Vietnam shows a significant increase in tax revenues after completing two expressways, supporting our idea about spillover effects, which includes small-and medium-sized enterprise (SME) development. This study’s results suggest that spillover effects can bring new opportunities for governments and multilateral development banks (MDBs) to implement infrastructure projects with greater private sector involvement in the region. It also proposes some financial schemes, such as land capture and financing for business startups, including SMEs, to enhance the spillover effects of infrastructure.

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INVITED PAPER - COMPARISON OF VARIOUS FISCAL POLICIES IN THE FACE OF DIFFERENT DEMOGRAPHIC STAGES

Yoshino N., Kameda K., Miyamoto H., Lu Z.

Singapore Economic Review （Singapore Economic Review） 69 （ 4 ） 1473 - 1497 2024年

共著, ISSN 02175908

This study examines the impact of aging on the effectiveness of various fiscal expenditures, including government consumption, one-time government transfers to households, public investment and R&D spending, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Our findings reveal that (1) Aging enhances the effects of the transfer on augmenting GDP. (2) Regardless of aging, R&D expenditure consistently stands out over all time spans, with younger society benefiting more. (3) Public investment ranks second among for different fiscal policies in the long run, while shows bigger impact in younger society. (4) One-time transfer has only a temporary effect and is the least effective in boosting GDP in both young and old societies. (5) Multipliers for public investment and R&D expenditure increase with the accumulation of public capital and TFP. Their multiplier of young society is larger than old society because impact on consumption is much more effective.

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Diversified ESG Evaluation by Rating Agencies and Net Carbon Tax to Regain Optimal Portfolio Allocation

Yoshino N., Yuyama T., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Asian Economic Papers （Asian Economic Papers） 22 （ 3 ） 81 - 96 2023年09月

共著, ISSN 15353516

Environmental, Society, and Governance (ESG) investments have become increasingly popular in recent years, and, at the same time, many rating agencies provide ESG scores for each company. This means that the ESG investment model may have moved from the traditional two-factor model of risk-return to a three-factor model adding an ESG component to it. This paper highlights the potential for distor tion of asset allocation through the shift from traditional risk-return considerations to ESG score considerations. This is equally true for green bonds, resulting in the potential for asset allocation to be distor ted by green bond criteria. Fur thermore, we show that imposing a net carbon tax on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a measure to correct this distor tion in asset allocation and make asset allocation more risk-return based, in addressing global environmental issues.

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Financial literacy, behavioral traits, and ePayment adoption and usage in Japan

Long Trinh Quang, Morgan Peter J. J., Yoshino Naoyuki

FINANCIAL INNOVATION （Financial Innovation） 9 （ 1 ） 101 2023年06月

共著

This study investigates how financial literacy and behavioral traits affect the adoption of electronic payment (ePayment) services in Japan. We construct a financial literacy index using a representative sample of 25,000 individuals from the Bank of Japan’s 2019 Financial Literacy Survey. We then analyze the relationship between this index and the extensive and intensive usage of two types of payment services: electronic money (e-money) and mobile payment apps. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find that higher financial literacy is positively associated with a higher likelihood of adopting ePayment services. The empirical results suggest that individuals with higher financial literacy use payment services more frequently. We also find that risk-averse people are less likely to adopt and use ePayment services, whereas people with herd behavior tend to adopt and use ePayment services more. Our empirical results also suggest that the effects of financial literacy on the adoption and use of ePayment differ among people with different behavioral traits.

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Sustainable Financing Strategies for the SMEs: Two Alternative Models

Hossain M., Yoshino N., Tsubota K.

Sustainability (Switzerland) （Sustainability (Switzerland)） 15 （ 11 ） 2023年06月

共著

A sustainable financing strategy for SMEs should aim to enhance a low-cost collateral-free supply of loans to SMEs with good track records of repayments to banks. In this paper, we suggest two alternative financing models for SMEs that address certain borrowing constraints of SMEs. First, the model incorporates institutional mechanisms involving the government, banks, and SMEs. The strategy employs a two-pronged approach: (i) the government enhances the supply of loanable funds to banks, and (ii) identifies good SME borrowers through skills development programs and introduces them to banks. This model will reduce default risk and allow banks to offer lower-interest and collateral-free credit to SMEs, thereby improving their access to finance and performance. Second, the model could be extended to accommodate digital finance using a data-driven credit risk score of the borrowers to reduce banks’ default risks and transaction costs with or without government funds. The proposed model could resolve the moral hazard and selection bias problems. Our proposed models are based on a public-private partnership approach and therefore could solve certain borrowing constraints of SMEs. Our empirical results support the model outcomes and therefore are consistent with the predictions of our theoretical models.

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SMEs and carbon neutrality in ASEAN: the need to revisit sustainability policies

Yoshino N., Rasoulinezhad E., Phoumin H., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja （Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja） 36 （ 2 ） 2023年

共著, ISSN 1331677X

Most rules and regulations for protecting the environment and reducing greenhouse gas emissions target large enterprises. Although small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have major shares in most Asian economies, they remain outside the purview of most environmental rules and regulations. The primary purpose of this study is to assess the association between SMEs’ activities and carbon emissions in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries from 2010 to 2020. To this end, a fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) model was developed. The results show that SMEs’ activities do not align with environmental protection goals and sustainable development, as the estimation results revealed their significant contributions to CO2 emissions. Other practical implications of this study for carbon-neutral SMEs are introducing green finance policies, revisiting the environmental and carbon reduction rules and regulations that cover SMEs, and changing banks’ lending mechanisms based on SMEs’ green economic performance.

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Aftermarket performance of green IPOs and portfolio allocation

Mumtaz Muhammad Zubair, Yoshino Naoyuki

GREEN FINANCE （Green Finance） 5 （ 3 ） 321 - 342 2023年

共著, ISSN 2643-1092

This study examines the aftermarket performance of high-green and low-green IPO and how green IPOs can optimize portfolio allocation. We assume the higher level of greenness increases investors’ participation in IPOs. To this end, we develop the utility function and determine that investors prefer to participate in new issues when firms account for greenness measures. This study proposes the global aspects of green measure: the desired level of greenness a firm maintains. We find that IPOs in our sample are far below the global standards of greenness. This evidence suggests they must adopt the necessary actions to make the environment green. Another significant contribution of this study is to measure the performance of high and low-green IPOs in short-and long-run horizons. This study reveals that high-green IPOs are less underpriced. This study estimates the effect of greenness on initial returns and finds an inverse relationship suggesting that high-green IPOs are less underpriced due to lower risk associated with new issues. In terms of measuring longer-term performance, this study determines that high-green IPOs underperform less than low-green IPOs.

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コロナ後を見据えた財政・金融政策

吉野直行, 岩田一政, 清水順子, 松元崇, 井堀利宏

現代経済学の潮流（一般社団法人日本経済学会） 2023 （ 0 ） 239 - 293 2023年

共著

Measuring concentration in the Japanese loan and deposit markets

Uesugi I., Hiraga K., Manabe M., Yoshino N.

Japan and the World Economy （Japan and the World Economy） 63 101148 - 101148 2022年09月

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 09221425

This study is the first to exhaustively calculate the degree of concentration in regional banking markets using the outstanding amount of loans and deposits at branches and headquarters of financial institutions in Japan. Calculating the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for loans and deposits for each prefecture and for each urban employment area for the period 2005–2019, we show differences in the HHI across regions and developments in these differences over time. Furthermore, we decompose the level of and changes in the HHI into two components: the contribution of the number of financial institutions and the contribution of the deviation of individual financial institutions’ market share from the mean. We also examine the extent of the increase in the HHI caused by mergers of financial institutions and its persistence. The main results obtained are as follows. First, while the HHIs for loans and deposits show an upward trend, the HHI for loans in large metropolitan areas, which was already low, continued to further decline, indicating that competition among financial institutions in large metropolitan regions, which already was severe, has continued to intensify. Second, increases in the HHI are not only due to reductions in the number of financial institutions but also to the growing variation in financial institutions’ market share. And third, while an increase in the loan HHI due to a merger of financial institutions is sustained for a certain period, the duration of such an increase tends to be shorter in regions with a low market concentration.

INTRODUCTION: WAYS TO ACHIEVE GREEN ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND MITIGATE GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE POST-COVID-19 ERA

Taghizadeh-Hesary Farhad, Yoshino Naoyuki, Mohsin Muhammad, Mirza Nawazish

CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS （WORLD SCIENTIFIC PUBL CO PTE LTD） 13 （ 03 ） 2022年05月

共著, ISSN 2010-0078

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Nonlinear tail dependence between the housing and energy markets

Stenvall D., Hedström A., Yoshino N., Uddin G.S., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Energy Economics （Energy Economics） 106 2022年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, ISSN 01409883

This paper examines the quantile dependence between energy commodities (oil, coal, and natural gas) and the real housing returns of the nine US census divisions for the period 1991–2019. In contrast to the literature on the association between oil and housing markets, we contribute by studying the effect of additional commodities on the housing market returns. We use a cross-quantilogram and quantile regression approach and find regional variation in the impact of energy commodities on housing returns. The effect within the same region varies over the quantile distributions. In general, we observe that all energy commodities are negatively associated with real housing returns. Significant correlations are found more often when the oil and housing returns are in similar quantiles. Coal and natural gas show a stronger relationship with higher quantiles of housing returns. Further, the results for coal and natural gas remains relatively stable after controlling for macroeconomic variables.

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LEVERAGING ON ENERGY SECURITY TO ALLEVIATE POVERTY IN ASIAN ECONOMIES

Taghizadeh-Hesary Farhad, Zakari Abdulrasheed, Yoshino Naoyuki, Khan Irfan

SINGAPORE ECONOMIC REVIEW （Singapore Economic Review） 68 （ 04 ） 1063 - 1090 2022年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, ISSN 0217-5908

This study examines the role of energy security in poverty reduction in the 12 poorest Asian economies from 2000 to 2019. We postulated an energy security index using principal component analysis. We adopted the system generalized method of a moment technique to manage endogeneity and dynamism in the model. For robustness, we applied a panel-corrected standard error (PCSE). We found a negative relationship between energy security and poverty reduction, suggesting that energy security helps reduce poverty. We conclude that energy security promotes sustainable poverty alleviation and recommends feed-in tariffs, net metering, tax credits, and energy resource diversification away from fossil fuels.

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Greenness, mood, and portfolio allocation: A cross-country analysis

Mumtaz M.Z., Yoshino N.

Environmental Challenges （Environmental Challenges） 5 2021年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

This study estimates the utility function, including the rate of return, riskiness, greenness, and mood across selected countries. We incorporate mood as investors’ sensitivity or momentum towards environmental issues. This study assumes that higher sensitivity of environmental issues compels the firms to follow green measures. We report that the proportion of investment is higher if the firms account for greenness measures. This study compares the results of five Asian economies and reports that Japanese and South Korean firms are following the greenness measures. However, the firms locating in developing countries are far behind in implementing greenness measures. Our regression results also suggest that greenness and mood x greenness positively influence stock returns.

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Power purchase agreements with incremental tariffs in local currency: An innovative green finance tool

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Rasoulinezhad E., Rimaud C.

Global Finance Journal （Global Finance Journal） 50 2021年11月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, ISSN 10440283

Investment volume in green projects, specifically in the green electricity market, suffers from limitations such as inadequate long-term financing, various risks, and a low rate of return on investment. Renewable energy power purchase agreements (PPAs), as a direct legal contract between a power provider and a power buyer, are one of the most popular instruments to increase investment. In this study, we model an adjusted PPA in the local currency framework to lower exchange rate risk and incremental tariffs by having the government pay part of the spillover tax revenues to the PPA, leading to a higher return on investment. The major conclusion of this study is that the use of tax revenue through the spillover effect of green electricity supply is a suitable source of financing for PPAs. As one policy implication, we recommend that developing countries allocate 50% of the tax revenue originating from power supply and adopt incremental PPAs to encourage private investment in green projects.

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Determinants of the Russia and Asia–Pacific energy trade

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Rasoulinezhad E., Yoshino N., Sarker T., Mirza N.

Energy Strategy Reviews （Energy Strategy Reviews） 38 2021年11月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, ISSN 2211467X

Asia remained the largest energy consumer in 2020. The Russian Federation hopes to gain a greater share of the Asian energy market. This study examined the Russian Federation–Asia and Pacific energy trade patterns using gravity trade theory and GMM panel estimation for 17 selected Asia and Pacific economies. We found that the Russian Federation's energy exports to the Asia–Pacific region (APR) followed the Linder hypothesis, and economic growth positively influenced Russian energy exports in the region. Furthermore, The results indicated that the sanctions against Russia since 2014 stimulated an increase in Russian energy exports to the APR. To improve the region's energy security, we recommend developing an energy trading hub in the APR to increase regional pricing power.

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Greenness index: IPO performance and portfolio allocation

Mumtaz M.Z., Yoshino N.

Research in International Business and Finance （Research in International Business and Finance） 57 2021年10月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, ISSN 02755319

This study examines how the greenness of the firm affects the short- and long-term performance of IPOs. To measure the greenness of the firm, we develop the Greenness Index based on the emissions produced. We find that the greenness of the firms operating in services and financial sectors is higher than in other sectors. To examine the short- and long-run performance of IPOs, we classify our sample into high and low green firms. In the short-run, high green firms obtain a lower return than low green firms. However, high green firms perform better than low green firms in the long-run. This study also determines the factors that cause short- and long-run performance, and the results suggest that the firm's greenness negatively influences initial returns and underperformance of IPOs. Finally, we develop a theoretical model in terms of the portfolio's allocation and assert that investors participate in high-green firms to optimize their portfolio.

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Introduction: Investment in startups and small business financing

Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Naoyuki Yoshino, Chul Ju Kim, Peter J. Morgan, Daehee Yoon

Investment In Startups And Small Business Financing ix - xvii 2021年08月

共著

Analyzing the factors influencing the demand and supply of solar modules in Japan – Does financing matter

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Inagaki Y., Morgan P.J.

International Review of Economics and Finance （International Review of Economics and Finance） 74 1 - 12 2021年07月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, ISSN 10590560

This paper analyzes the influence of certain factors on the demand and supply of solar modules by employing the fully modified ordinary least squares method using Japanese data. Our regression analysis shows that interest rates and money supply (M2) significantly impact the solar photovoltaic module supply, indicating that lower interest rates and more funding channels for the renewable energy sector will increase solar photovoltaic module production. Based on this finding, the paper concludes that, for Japan to increase its energy self-sufficiency rate, the Government of Japan should implement green financing policies, providing renewable energy business owners with a wider variety of funding channels with lower interest rates, and ultimately invigorating investments in solar photovoltaic installation.

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Economic Impacts of Carbon Tax in a General Equilibrium Framework: Empirical Study of Japan

Yoshino N., Rasoulinezhad E., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management （Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management） 23 （ 1-2 ） 2021年06月

共著, ISSN 14643332

This study tries to find new insights of implementations of carbon tax policy as a suitable way to reach the long-term zero-carbon plan. This paper explores how carbon tax can affect the macroeconomy in Japan through the structural vector autoregression (S-VAR) technique conducted for the quarterly data throughout 2005-2020. A theoretical general equilibrium model backs the empirical analysis. The major findings reveal that any increase in energy price from the carbon tax will lead to an increase in interest rate, exchange rate, and consumer price index while there is a negative relationship between energy price increase from carbon tax and real gross domestic product (GDP) in Japan. Carbon Policy Refolution (Reform+Evolution), refunding carbon tax revenues, and adaptation of long-term policy of net zero GHG emissions by 2050 with the current situation of Japan's power sectors are the major practical policies of this study.

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Analyzing the characteristics of green bond markets to facilitate green finance in the post-covid-19 world

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Phoumin H.

Sustainability (Switzerland) （Sustainability (Switzerland)） 13 （ 10 ） 2021年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

The COVID-19 pandemic and the global recessions have reduced the investments in green projects globally that would endanger the achievement of the climate-related goals. Therefore, the post-COVID-19 world needs to adopt the green financial system by introducing new financial instruments. In this regard, green bonds—a type of debt instrument aiming to finance sustainable infrastructure projects—are growing in popularity. While the literature does not contest their effectiveness in fighting climate change, research highlights the high level of risks and low returns associated with this instrument. This study analyzes the green bond markets in different regions with a focus on Asia and the Pacific. It aims to fill the gap in the literature by conducting a comparative study of the characteristics, risks, and returns of green bonds based on the region. The study is based on theoretical background and empirical analysis using the data retrieved from Bloomberg New Energy Finance and the Climate Bonds Initiative. The empirical results are based on several econometrics tests using panel data analysis estimation methods, namely pooled ordinary least squares and generalized least squares random effects estimator. Our findings prove that green bonds in Asia tend to show higher returns but higher risks and higher heterogeneity. Generally, the Asian green bonds market is dominated by the banking sector, representing 60% of all issuance. Given that bonds issued by this sector tend to show lower returns than average, we recommend policies that could increase the rate of return of bonds issued by the banking sector through the use of tax spillover. In the era of post-COVID-19, diversification of issuers, with higher participation from the public sector and de-risking policies, could also be considered.

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Energy insecurity, renewable energy and economic growth

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Chang Y., Yoshino N., Morgan P.J.

Singapore Economic Review （Singapore Economic Review） 66 （ 2 ） 313 - 322 2021年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 02175908

Energy security, a multidimensional concept that encompasses the notion of resource availability, accessibility, environmental acceptability and cost affordability, has been widely discussed. However, the same cannot be said about energy insecurity, a concept that may not necessarily mirror energy security, but also comprises the various consequences of energy unavailability. Energy insecurity mostly affects the poorest and can lead to deepened inequalities and poor health at the household level. One solution for tackling energy insecurity could be adoption of renewable energy. Power generated from renewable sources could help in mitigating energy price fluctuations and reduce health issues, as well as encourage stable economic growth. This special issue discusses the interaction between the three concepts through careful case studies and panel analysis and proposes various policy implications for energy policymakers. This introductory paper introduces the articles selected for this special issue.

The energy-pollution-health nexus: A panel data analysis of low-and middle-income asian countries

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Rasoulinezhad E., Yoshino N., Chang Y., Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Morgan P.J.

Singapore Economic Review （Singapore Economic Review） 66 （ 2 ） 435 - 455 2021年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 02175908

Increased consumption of nonrenewable energy sources may lead to more air pollution, resulting in negative health impacts in a society. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between fossil fuel energy consumption and health issues using generalized method of moments estimation technique for data from 18 Asian countries (both low-and middle-income) over the period 1991-2018. The findings demonstrate that fossil fuel energy consumption increases the risk of lung and respiratory diseases. In addition, the results demonstrate the significant effect of CO 2 emissions and fossil fuel consumption on undernourishment and death rates. Furthermore, we find that increases in the gross domestic product per capita and healthcare expenditure may help reduce undernourishment and death ratio. The conclusion recommends that diversification of energy in low-and middle-income countries from too much reliance on fossil fuels to more renewable energy sources can improve energy insecurity, at the same time reduce greenhouse gas emissions and minimize the negative impacts on human health.

Quality infrastructure and natural disaster resiliency: A panel analysis of Asia and the Pacific

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Sarker T., Yoshino N., Mortha A., Vo X.V.

Economic Analysis and Policy （Economic Analysis and Policy） 69 394 - 406 2021年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, ISSN 03135926

In this study, we assess the impact of quality infrastructure, development, and corruption on damage caused by a natural disaster using panel data from 14 Asia and the Pacific countries for 2007–2017. Employing the generalized method of moments and vector error correction model, this study's main contribution to the literature lies in the quantification of the role of quality infrastructure in disaster impact mitigation. The empirical results prove that even if disaster intensity remains the most important factor in explaining damage, this effect is short-lived. At the same time, quality infrastructure significantly reduces damage in the long-term and is the variable with the largest magnitude. A higher level of development indicators, measured by gross domestic product per capita, and control of corruption, are also shown to reduce damage linked to natural disasters. Our study suggests that improving the quality of infrastructure can be effective in mitigating the impact of disasters. We also propose financial schemes such as public–private cooperation and innovative schemes to promote the construction of quality infrastructure.

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Optimal branching strategy, local financial development, and SMEs’ performance

Hossain M., Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Economic Modelling （Economic Modelling） 96 421 - 432 2021年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 02649993

This paper examines whether and to what extent development of the local-level financial sector improves SMEs’ performances. While only a handful of studies examines the relationship between local financial development and firm growth, no theoretical basis has been provided in those studies to understand transmission channels and instruments through which local financial development works in favor of firm growth. This paper attempts to fill that gap. In a theoretical framework, this paper shows that an optimal number of bank branches in an area works as an instrument of the transmission channel from financial development to growth, which helps reduce excess liquidity and increase SMEs’ access to bank credit by creating links between the demand and supply of liquidity. Banks default credit risk and cost of branch expansion determine the optimal number of branches in an area: a higher number of branches will reduce asymmetry of information about borrowers and monitoring costs, leading to lower default risks. Using new firm-level survey data of 1084 SME manufacturing firms from Bangladesh, our empirical analysis suggests that there is a threshold level of bank branches that can improve SME performance at the sub-district level. Our findings highlight the importance of potential returns to an optimal branching strategy of banks at the sub-national level that will lead to inclusive finance and growth within a country.

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The efficacy of a third-generation oncolytic herpes simplex viral therapy for an HPV-related uterine cervical cancer model.

Kagabu M, Yoshino N, Saito T, Miura Y, Takeshita R, Murakami K, Kawamura H, Baba T, Sugiyama T

International journal of clinical oncology 26 （ 3 ） 591 - 597 2021年03月

共著, ISSN 1341-9625

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財政赤字の安定化条件「ドーマー条件」の再考察—特集人口高齢化のもとでの財政金融政策の有効性

吉野直行, 宮本弘曉

フィナンシャル・レビュー / 財務省財務総合政策研究所編（財務省財務総合政策研究所） 2021 （ 2 ） 4 - 14 2021年03月

共著, ISSN 0912-5892

高齢化のもとでの財政金融政策の有効性低下と雇用体系の構造改革

吉野直行, 宮本弘暁, 高野佳佑

立命館国際研究 = Ritsumeikan kokusai kenkyu / The Ritsumeikan journal of international studies （立命館大学国際関係学会） 33 （ 4 ） 89 - 101 2021年03月

共著, ISSN 0915-2008

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高齢化が財政政策の効果に与える影響—特集人口高齢化のもとでの財政金融政策の有効性

宮本弘曉, 吉野直行

フィナンシャル・レビュー / 財務省財務総合政策研究所編（財務省財務総合政策研究所） 2021 （ 2 ） 49 - 67 2021年03月

共著, ISSN 0912-5892

A model for calculating optimal credit guarantee fee for small and medium-sized enterprises

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Fukuda L., Rasoulinezhad E.

Economic Modelling （Economic Modelling） 95 361 - 373 2021年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 02649993

A credit guarantee scheme is a method for promoting lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by formal financial institutions. It reduces information asymmetry and SMEs’ collateral burden, but at a cost of a credit guarantee fee. The paper provides a theoretical model for calculating the optimal credit guarantee fee. In the empirical part, this study examines whether selected macroeconomic variables and financial health of SMEs have a statistically significant impact on default risk ratio of loans to SMEs – the main determinant of the fee. Principle component analysis (PCA) and two vector error correction model (VECM) models are applied on a sample of 1363 SMEs. Empirical results support our hypothesis that the credit guarantee fee should be different for sound and risky SMEs in order to avoid moral hazard, but also according to the macroeconomic state.

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Default risks, moral hazard and market-based solution: Evidence from renewable energy market in Bangladesh

Hossain M., Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Economic Modelling （Economic Modelling） 95 489 - 499 2021年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 02649993

This paper analyzes a unique case of default risks associated with a solar homes program in Bangladesh, implemented by the Infrastructure Development Company Limited (IDCOL). Out of 4.3 million solar homes adopter households, about 1.2 million households became default in paying their due payment of the solar home system. We explain the behavior of the customers in a hyperbolic discounting framework where various shocks increase the risks of default. Further we extend the model to explain moral hazard problem under the refinancing program structure in the absence of an optimal contract. For empirical analysis, we apply the Cox's proportional hazard model to study the factors responsible for default and instantaneous hazard rates. Using primary survey data from 1300 households, we find that various exogenous shocks and financial constraints can explain the default situation of the customers along with a portion of the default customers being adversely selected in the context of moral hazard problem, which is consistent with the prediction of our theoretical model. We propose a market-based solution to the problem by withdrawing subsidies from the program.

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Covid-19 and Optimal Portfolio Selection for Investment in Sustainable Development Goals

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Otsuka M.

Finance Research Letters （Finance Research Letters） 38 101695 2021年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 15446123

The Covid-19 pandemic and global economic recession has shrunk global energy demand and collapsed fossil fuel prices. Therefore, renewable energy projects are losing their competitiveness. This endangers the achievement of several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Various consulting companies define the SDGs differently. Institutional investors hire consulting companies and allocate their investment based on the consultants’ suggestions. This paper theoretically shows that the current allocation of investors by considering SDG based on various consulting companies will lead to distortion in the investment portfolio. The desired portfolio allocation can be achieved by taxing pollution and waste such as CO , NO , and plastics, globally with the same tax rate. Global taxation on pollution will lead to the desired portfolio allocation of assets. 2 x

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The necessity of financial inclusion for enhancing the economic impacts of remittances

Chuc A.T., Li W., Phi N.T.M., Le Q.T., Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Borsa Istanbul Review （Borsa Istanbul Review） 22 （ 1 ） 47 - 56 2021年

共著, ISSN 22148450

International remittances by immigrants to their home countries is key in the funding development in migrant-sending countries. This study investigates the combined impact of international remittance inflows and financial inclusion on economic growth using a sample of 60 low- and middle-income countries over 1996–2017. The study constructs a composite financial inclusion index using principal component analysis. The results show that financial inclusion could strengthen the growth-enhancing effect of remittances. Thus, the study helps explain the development dilemma of remittance inflows and financial inclusion in migrant-sending countries to boost their economic growth.

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ESG/Green investment and allocation of portfolio assets

Yoshino N., Yuyama T.

Estudios de Economia Aplicada （Estudios de Economia Aplicada） 39 （ 3 ） 1 - 16 2021年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, ISSN 11333197

This article examines the current portfolio allocation in ESG and Green projects. Traditional investments focus on rates of return and risks associated with investment. Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) or Green factors are additional components that investors have to pay attention to. Environmental protection is very important. However, we see that the current different definitions of ESG or Green factors lead to distorted allocations in portfolio investments. In order to bring portfolio allocations to a desirable direction, global taxation on pollution or creation of an accurate Green credit rating based on emissions of various pollutants are recommended.

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Unconventional monetary policy and income disparity in an aging society

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Rasoulinezhad E.

Journal of Economic Policy Reform （Journal of Economic Policy Reform） 25 （ 4 ） 451 - 470 2021年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, ISSN 17487870

The main objective of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy is inflation targeting; however, it may be associated with the recently increased income disparity in Japan. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimation model, this study conducted in the context of an aging society revealed that the bank’s monetary policy increased income inequality through increased financial asset prices, resulting in a widening of the income gap. We also find that in the long run, the aging population will increase income disparity in Japan; however, tax policy will partially mitigate the adverse effect on income inequality. Unconventional monetary policy will not bring a desirable result for the Japanese economy and the nation as a whole. In addition, the government needs to revise the incremental tax system so that wealthier groups pay more tax than before. In addition, expanding the tax system by adopting the carbon taxation scheme would be beneficial. The government with this kind of tax can pursue two major goals: reducing poverty and environmental pollution, which are ongoing challenges in Japan.

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KNOWING THE UNKNOWNS - FRESH INSIGHTS FROM AN UNKNOWN STOCK MARKET

Sharma S.S., Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan （Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan） 24 （ 4 ） 641 - 658 2021年

共著, ISSN 14108046

The goal of our study is to examine the impact of natural disasters on the South Pacific Stock Exchange. We use daily time-series data for Fiji's stock market for the period 2000-2019. Our empirical framework is based on three factor regression models, namely the market model, the Fama and French three-factor model, and the Fama and French five-factor model. We find evidence that natural disasters in Fiji reduce abnormal returns in the most relevant five-factor model. Additionally, we provide evidence that different types of natural disasters have heterogeneous effects on Fiji's stock market. Our findings are further supported by a robustness check.

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Introduction: Investment in Startups and Small Business Financing

Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Naoyuki Yoshino, Chul Ju Kim, Peter J. Morgan, Daehee Yoon

World Scientific Series in Finance 17 IX - XVII 2021年

共著, ISSN 2010-1082

財政安定化条件ドーマー条件の再考察 : 国債市場の需給からの新条件の導出—Rethinking of Fiscal Sustainability Condition : Revised Domar Condition based on Supply and Demand for Government Bond

吉野直行, 宮本弘暁

ファイナンシャル・プランニング研究 / 日本FP学会「ファイナンシャル・プランニング研究」編集委員会編（日本FP学会） 21 21 - 25 2021年

共著, ISSN 1346-5112

Internal and external determinants of housing price boom in Hong Kong

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Mortha A., Chiu A., Naderi N.

Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan （Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan） 23 （ 4 ） 597 - 620 2020年12月

共著, ISSN 14108046

Hong Kong's housing market witnessed a dramatic housing price appreciation in recent years, with the price index for private domestic housing units being three times higher than ten years ago. This trend is supported by both internal and external factors, as illustrated in this paper. By developing a theoretical model and an empirical analysis on the key variables influencing housing prices using monthly data from 1999 to 2018, we find that the main drivers of housing price appreciation are from the demand side and include income level, money supply and inflation. The main contribution of this study is the quantification of the role of Mainland China's macroeconomic factors in housing price booms in Hong Kong. Our study shows that capital inflow from and inflation and recessions in Mainland China contribute to increasing housing prices in Hong Kong because the city's real estate is seen as a way to preserve asset value. These findings call for the need for control of capital inflow between the two economies as well as for stricter regulations against empty houses in Hong Kong.

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The COVID-19 Crisis: Policy Recommendations for Japan

Yoshino N., Hendriyetty N.

Economists' Voice （Economists' Voice） 17 （ 1 ） 1 - 9 2020年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1553-3832

Japan economy is dominated by Small and Medium enterprises. It covers around 99.7% of all enterprises operated in Japan and employs around 70% of the working population and account for a large portion of economic output. But, like other SMEs in the world, they also the ones that have hardly hit by COVID-19 quarantine and business closures. Japanese government made emergency loans and credit guarantee to assist SMEs. However, moral hazard problems of banks and SMEs have to be remedied. In the capital market, many investors take risk-averse behavior to anticipate further measures. Infrastructure investments are most needed in Asian region yet finance for infrastructure investments would face with shortage of funds due to low rate of return and risks. Private financing by long term investors such as pension funds and insurance better be directed to support infrastructure investment. Spillover tax revenues could be partly directed to increase the rate of return. The Japanese economy faces with aging population which would widen fiscal deficits unless postponement of retirement age and productivity-based wage rate rather than seniority wage rate facing with this crisis. Therefore, Japan government need to look into innovative policies options for sustainable economic growth.

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Determinants of international remittance inflow in Asia-Pacific middle-income countries

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Otsuka M.

Economic Analysis and Policy （Economic Analysis and Policy） 68 29 - 43 2020年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 03135926

The international remittances by immigrants to their home countries is one of the key sources of funding development in middle-income countries, especially in migrant-sending countries. This study assesses the determinants of international remittances using panel data from 22 Asia-Pacific middle-income countries, most of which are well-known migrant-sending countries, using the generalized method of moments (GMM) method. The results show that the gap in the per capita GDP growth rate between origin and destination countries, gross enrollment ratio of secondary education, and trade openness are positively associated with remittance inflow. On the other hand, net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows are negatively correlated with remittance inflows. The results of this study can be interpreted as a paradigm shift for acquiring foreign capital in middle-income countries, from remittances in earlier stages of development to more FDI inflows when the country has the pre-requisites for absorbing foreign capital. The remittance inflows should be highly important, especially in the early stage of economic development, as additional incomes, or investment sources for those who live in middle-income countries.

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The impact of monetary and tax policy on income inequality in Japan

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Shimizu S.

World Economy （World Economy） 43 （ 10 ） 2600 - 2621 2020年10月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 03785920

This paper assesses the effects of the most recent monetary policy behaviour of the Bank of Japan (in particular, zero interest rate policy and negative interest rate policy) and Japanese tax policy on income inequality in this country during the period of 2002Q1 to 2017Q3. The vector error correction model (VECM) that develops in this research shows that increase in money stock (m1) through Quantitative Easing (QE) and Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) policies of the BOJ significantly increases the income inequality. On the contrary, Japanese tax policy was effective in reducing the income inequality. Variance decomposition results show that increasing of income inequality by monetary policy is larger when comparing to decreasing effects of tax policy on income inequality. Cointegration and VECM results show that monetary policy has both short-run and long-run impacts but for tax policy paper could not find any significant short-run impact on income inequality. In addition, paper found that technological progress only in long-run can reduce the income inequality by increasing the marginal productivity of labour with positive impacts on employment and wages.

Autologous Hematopoietic Recovery after Unrelated Umbilical Cord Blood Transplantation with Myeloablative Conditioning for Acute Myelogenous Leukemia.

Gomyo A, Nakasone H, Wada H, Kawamura S, Yoshino N, Takeshita J, Yoshimura K, Misaki Y, Tanihara A, Akahoshi Y, Kusuda M, Tamaki M, Kawamura K, Kimura SI, Kako S, Kanda Y

Internal medicine (Tokyo, Japan) 59 （ 19 ） 2409 - 2414 2020年10月

共著, ISSN 0918-2918

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Enhansing financial connectivity between Asia and Europe: Implications for infrastructure convergence between the two regions

Naoyuki YOSHINO, Monzur Hossain, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

Asian Economic Papers (MIT Press) 19 （ 2 ） 84 - 101 2020年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り

Comments on Reforms and Crises in Government Statistics: The Case of Japan

Yoshino Naoyuki

ASIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS 19 （ 2 ） 38 - 40 2020年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1535-3516

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Enhancing Financial Connectivity Between Asia and Europe: Implications for Infrastructure Convergence Between the Two Regions*

Yoshino Naoyuki, Hossain Monzur, Taghizadeh-Hesary Farhad

ASIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS （Asian Economic Papers） 19 （ 2 ） 84 - 101 2020年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1535-3516

This paper explores the methods and policies that could enhance the financial connectivity between Europe and Asia in infrastructure investments. We argue that if Asian governments agree to enter into a long-term repayment commitment with a share of spillover tax revenues of public infrastructure projects under a regulatory framework, it could attract European long-term institutional funds in Asia’s infrastructure projects. This approach will reduce divergence in infrastructure between the two regions and encourage regional connectivity. With some empirical evidence, this paper highlights the operational risks and methods of sharing spillover revenue for infrastructure projects.

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From window guidance to interbank rates: Tracing the transition of monetary policy in Japan and China

Angrick S., Yoshino N.

International Journal of Central Banking （International Journal of Central Banking） 16 （ 3 ） 279 - 316 2020年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 18154654

Japanese monetary policy up to 1991 was based on a mix of price-based and quantity-based instruments and targets. Echoes of this system are today found in Chinese monetary policy. We explore the transition of these two regimes using historical statistics, computational text analysis, and structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models. Specifically, we examine the role of the interbank rate and “window guidance,” a policy by which authorities communicate target quotas for lending growth directly to commercial banks. We empirically demonstrate the declining effectiveness of quantity measures and the increasing importance of price measures and provide recommendations for managing this transition.

Effect of Smoking on Outcomes of Allogeneic Transplantation: A Single-Center Analysis.

Tamaki M, Nakasone H, Kawamura M, Kawamura S, Takeshita J, Yoshino N, Misaki Y, Yoshimura K, Matsumi S, Gomyo A, Tanihara A, Kusuda M, Akahoshi Y, Kawamura K, Kimura SI, Kako S, Kanda Y

Biology of blood and marrow transplantation : journal of the American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation 26 （ 6 ） 1131 - 1136 2020年06月

共著, ISSN 1083-8791

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How does population aging affect the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy ?

Naoyuki YOSHINO, Hiroaki Miyamoto

Global Solutons Journal, May 2020 May （ 2020 ） 2020年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り

Assessment of the Trade Integration Pattern Between the Russian Federation and East/Southeast Asian Economies Using the Panel Gravity Framework*

Ehsan Rasoulinezhad, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Naoyuki Yoshino

ASIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS （MIT PRESS） 19 （ 1 ） 1 - 14 2020年04月

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1535-3516

This study is the first attempt to investigate the patterns of imports and exports between the Russian Federation and East/Southeast Asian economies, namely, the People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Macau, China; Japan; the Republic of Korea; Mongolia; Cambodia; Lao People's Democratic Republic; Brunei; Indonesia; Malaysia; Myanmar; the Philippines; Singapore; Thailand; and Vietnam. To this end, a panel gravity trade model with series from 2001 to 2017 is provided to estimate the gravity variables in our models. The results reveal that GDP and income are more important in the export pattern from the Russian Federation to the East Asian region, meaning that the economic size and the income of the population in East Asian economies are more important in this pattern than other variables. Moreover, Russia's export pattern with the East Asian region follows the Heckscher-Ohlin hypothesis, while Russia's import pattern with this region is in line with the Linder hypothesis.

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Regional economic integration in asia: Challenges and recommended policies

Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Naoyuki Yoshino, Chul Ju Kim, Peter J. Morgan

Journal of Economic Integration 35 （ 1 ） 1 - 9 2020年03月

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1225-651X

© 2020-Center for Economic Integration, Sejong Institution, Sejong University, All Rights Reserved. Regional economic integration is one of the most effective ways of fostering stability, addressing regional challenges, and increasing rates of economic growth. Strengthening regional cooperation and integration in different Asian sub-regions offers great potential for eliminating poverty and achieving inclusive and sustainable development. Hurdles remain, however, for further integration. The willingness to commit to “unity in diversity” is important to overcoming this, requiring the acceptance of cultural, linguistic, social, religious, and political differences. Such complex unities have been achieved in the European Union (EU) and elsewhere (Fella, 2002). Currently, in most Asian sub-regions, such political ambitions for economic integration have been scarce. This implies that a more cautious approach is needed in Asia than in other places. However, by studying the European context, we can derive valuable lessons for better fostering economic integration. Regional economic integration should first ensure the maximization of benefits for all participants. With this, complete cooperation is required to develop an effective and uniform regional business environment. Second, a well-developed infrastructure with an absence of trade barriers is needed. Various Asian sub-regions (e.g., Central and South Asia), however, suffer from a lack of infrastructure, which hinders trade opportunities. Difficulties in accessing capital also presents a key obstacle. In this regard, the role of infrastructure financing is very important. In the EU, their European Investment Bank maintains equitable financing for intra-EU projects. Open engagements with partner countries also play a key role. Third, over the past 30 years, different institutional mechanisms have sprung into existence in Europe that have created the basis for strategic economic integration. Such institutional mechanisms and initiatives are needed in Asia.

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Financing infrastructure investment through spillover tax revenue sharing: Evidence from some Asian countries

Yoshino N., Hossain M., Hendriyetty N., Lakhia S.

Bangladesh’s Macroeconomic Policy: Trends, Determinants and Impact （Bangladesh’s Macroeconomic Policy: Trends, Determinants and Impact） 217 - 238 2020年01月

ISSN 9789811512438

In the context of growing demand for infrastructure investment in Asian countries including Bangladesh to support higher growth, this chapter discusses various alternative approaches of financing investments. This chapter particularly focuses on the use of spillover tax revenue to attract more private investments in infrastructure. Sharing spillover revenue with private investors will raise the rate of return of the private investors and improve infrastructures to a great extent with less burden on the government’s fiscal budget. Therefore, this approach is expected to create a win-win situation for both the government and private investors. Solving land acquisition related disputes is another key aspect for successful implementation of infrastructure investment projects. Therefore, we propose to use land trust method for acquisition rather than direct acquisition from landowners in order to reduce the cost and minimize the delay in implementation of infrastructure projects. Some innovative financing aspects practiced in Japan and other countries are also discussed.

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Financing infrastructure using floating-interest-rate infrastructure bond

Yoshino Naoyuki, Azhgaliyeva Dina, Mishra Ranjeeta

JOURNAL OF INFRASTRUCTURE POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT （Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development） 4 （ 2 ） 306 - 315 2020年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 2572-7923

This paper proposes a floating-interest-rate infrastructure bond, where the interest of a government bond is paid to investors during the period of construction and the early period of operation. Unlike the usual government bond, which provides a fixed interest rate, the proposed floating-interest-rate infrastructure bond pays a floating interest, the rate of which depends on spillover tax revenues. Effective infrastructure projects have a positive effect on the economic growth of a region, known as the spillover effect. When user charges and the return from spillover tax revenues are below the fixed rate of the government bond, the interest rate will equal to the fixed rate of the government bond. In this case, investors in the infrastructure will receive interest on the government bond at the minimum rate. As the spillover effect of the infrastructure increases, the rate of return for infrastructure investment will become greater than the fixed rate of the government bond. The success of the floating-interest-rate infrastructure bond depends on the spillover effect and on transparency and accountability. Policy recommendations are provided in this paper on how to increase the spillover effect and improve transparency and accountability.

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A NOTE on POPULATION AGING and EFFECTIVENESS of FISCAL POLICY

Miyamoto H., Yoshino N.

Macroeconomic Dynamics （Macroeconomic Dynamics） 26 （ 6 ） 1679 - 1689 2020年

共著, ISSN 13651005

This paper examines how population aging affects the output effect of a government spending shock by using a panel data of OECD countries. The government spending shock is identified as a forecast error of government spending, and its output effect is estimated by using the local projection method. We find that population aging affects the output effect of the government spending shock. While in non-aging economies, government spending shock increases output significantly in both short- A nd medium-terms, in aging economies, output responses are not statistically significant.

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Sustainable solutions for green financing and investment in renewable energy projects

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N.

Energies （Energies） 13 （ 4 ） 788 - 788 2020年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1996-1073

The lack of long-term financing, the low rate of return, the existence of various risks, and the lack of capacity of market players are major challenges for the development of green energy projects. This paper aimed to highlight the challenges of green financing and investment in renewable energy projects and to provide practical solutions for filling the green financing gap. Practical solutions include increasing the role of public financial institutions and non-banking financial institutions (pension funds and insurance companies) in long-term green investments, utilizing the spillover tax to increase the rate of return of green projects, developing green credit guarantee schemes to reduce the credit risk, establishing community-based trust funds, and addressing green investment risks via financial and policy de-risking. The paper also provides a practical example of the implementation of the proposed tools.

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Social funding of green financing: An application of distributed ledger technologies

Yoshino N., Schloesser T., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

International Journal of Finance and Economics （International Journal of Finance and Economics） 26 （ 4 ） 6060 - 6073 2020年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 10769307

Technical developments in the sphere of distributed ledger technologies (DLTs) provide the opportunity to enhance existing tools of social funding. In a first step, we elaborate their application to the community-based hometown investment trust (HIT) fund, which provides financing for small-scale renewable energy projects. In a second step, we model the investment decision problem of households to illustrate through which channel the use of DLTs impacts the household's behaviour. Our model captures the return–risk trade-off between two forms of investments for households with different risk preferences. It reveals that the use of DLTs can mitigate the associated risk of an investment in a HIT fund causing more risk-averse households to change their investment behaviour. Although our theoretical analysis ascertains the potentials of DLTs to enhance social funding schemes, it also works out challenges for the establishment of DLT based funds.

Performance Differential between Private and State-owned Enterprises: An Analysis of Profitability and Solvency

Phi N.T.M., Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Tu C.A., Yoshino N., Kim C.J.

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade （Emerging Markets Finance and Trade） 57 （ 14 ） 3913 - 3928 2020年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1540496X

Motivated by the rise of state capitalism, the paper investigates the relationship between ownership identity and the performance of firms in terms of profitability and solvency. Using cross-sectional data covering over 25,000 firms worldwide and by employing various empirical methods, we find robust evidence that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) tend to be less profitable than private-owned enterprises. However, they appear to use debt for their financial need and are, thus, better leveraged. SOEs are also more labor-intensive and have higher labor costs. In addition, an improvement in institutional quality could benefit both SOEs and POEs. Thus, evidence from this study could be interpreted to mean that privatization could improve the performance of public firms; however, this process should come with several prior-privatization approaches. A study over a more extended period is needed before these results can be considered conclusive.

Spillover Capture Financing for Infrastructure Projects: Implications for Asia

Hyun Suk, Yoshino Naoyuki

INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING IN ASIA 83 - 111 2020年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, ISSN 978-981-12-1511-7

Exogeneity of world oil prices to the Russian Federation’s economy and monetary policy

Alekhina V., Yoshino N.

Eurasian Economic Review （Eurasian Economic Review） 9 （ 4 ） 531 - 555 2019年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1309422X

This research investigates the interrelationship between the Russian Federation’s main macroeconomic indicators, monetary policy and world oil prices using a vector autoregressive approach and monthly time-series data from January 1993 to December 2016. We selected the Russian Federation for this analysis because it is one of the largest oil exporting countries that is not a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its oil revenues account for a significant proportion of the country’s total export and budget revenues. We assume that oil prices are exogenously given to this country, despite being a large oil-exporter, and explain the oil price transition mechanisms to the Russian Federation’s economy from the export side and through the fiscal channel taking into account the monetary policy factor. The results suggest that the impact of the oil price fluctuations on the country’s gross domestic product, consumer price index inflation rate, interest rate, and exchange rate was more significant between 2000 and 2016 than between 1993 and 1999. To estimate the monetary policy rule for the Russian Federation, we test the modified Taylor equation and associated Taylor rule, including the oil price gap, since the latter may have a significant impact on the key policy rate. The evidence suggests that the Taylor rule describes the post-financial crisis monetary policy of the Russian Federation relatively well.

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Energy insecurity in Asia: A multi-dimensional analysis

Le T.H., Chang Y., Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N.

Economic Modelling （Economic Modelling） 83 84 - 95 2019年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 02649993

Energy insecurity has been a critical challenge facing Asia's economic growth. This study constructs a comprehensive index for energy insecurity as well as examines its trend using a sample of 24 selected Asian countries during the 1990–2014 period. For this purpose, principal component analysis is applied to a series of 12 selected variables. The variables are standardized using different techniques including z-score, min-max and softmax normalization. Three different measures of energy insecurity are created accordingly. The empirical results depict the trend of increasing energy insecurity in Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam. On the other hand, the trend of fluctuating but recently improving energy security was observed in Hong Kong, Japan, Mongolia, Singapore, South Korea, and United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, the trend of fluctuating but recently increasing energy insecurity was found in Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, and Tajikistan. These findings are robust to all three measures of energy insecurity.

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The way to induce private participation in green finance and investment

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N.

Finance Research Letters （Finance Research Letters） 31 98 - 103 2019年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 15446123

Establishment of green credit guarantee schemes (GCGSs)and returning a portion of the tax revenue originally generated from spillover effect of green energy supply to investors. It can reduce the risk of green finance and increase the rate of return of green energy projects, respectively. In addition, technical developments in the sphere of distributed ledger technologies provide the opportunity to increase the transparency in green finance and investments. This paper contributes to literature by proposing two applied frameworks, backed by theoretical models on green finance and investment based on projects size. The objective is to induce the private participation in green finance and investment.

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Trade linkages and transmission of oil price fluctuations

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Rasoulinezhad E., Chang Y.

Energy Policy （Energy Policy） 133 2019年10月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 03014215

This study is an attempt to ascertain how oil price shock can affect a trade-linked system via monetary variables. To this end, a simultaneous equation model (SEM) was applied through a Weighted Two Stage Least Squares (W2SLS) estimation method to different countries (21 cases) with business relations over the period from Q1 2000 to Q4 2015. In the case of oil-exporting countries—consisting of Iran, Russian Federation, UAE, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan—the findings revealed that they totally benefit from oil price increases. In the case of oil-importing countries, the effects are more diverse. To derive a better interpretation, we divided them into four groups: European Union (EU) members (Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Poland); East Asian nations (Japan; People's Republic of China; Republic of Korea; Viet Nam; Taipei China; Singapore; and Hong Kong, China); Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) (Ukraine and Belarus) and others (the United States, India, and Turkey). The results showed that all these countries importing oil face a negative supply shock, except Turkey which benefits directly from an oil price shock. Furthermore, the indirect effect coefficient received through trade for all these countries was positive.

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Optimal credit guarantee ratio for small and medium-sized enterprises’ financing: Evidence from Asia

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Economic Analysis and Policy （Economic Analysis and Policy） 62 342 - 356 2019年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 03135926

Difficulty in accessing finance is one of the critical factors constraining the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Given their importance for national economies, it is imperative to find ways to provide SMEs with stable finance. One efficient way to promote SME financing is through credit guarantee schemes, by which the government guarantees a portion (ratio) of a loan provided by a bank to a SME. Due to asymmetry of information between banks and SMEs, total loans to SMEs are smaller than the desired level of SME loan demand. Therefore, providing credit guarantees reduces information asymmetry between SME and banks, which increases the amount of loans to SMEs. The ultimate goal of the government is to provide a desired level of loans to SMEs by reducing information asymmetry. This research provides a theoretical model and an empirical analysis of factors that determine an optimal credit guarantee ratio. The ratio should be at such a level that it achieves the government's goal of minimizing banks’ nonperforming loans to SMEs, and at the same realize the government policy objective of supporting SMEs by reducing information asymmetry. Our results show that three factors determine the optimal credit guarantee ratio: (i) government policy, (ii) macroeconomic conditions, and (iii) the behavior of banks. To avoid moral hazard and ensure the stability of lending to SMEs, it is crucial for governments to set the optimal credit guarantee ratio based on macroeconomic conditions and vary it for each bank or each group of banks based on their soundness.

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Fair premium rate of the deposit insurance system based on banks’ creditworthiness

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Nili F.

Studies in Economics and Finance （Studies in Economics and Finance） 36 （ 1 ） 8 - 31 2019年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 10867376

Purpose: Deposit insurance is a key element in modern banking, as it guarantees the financial safety of deposits at depository financial institutions. It is necessary to have at least a dual fair premium rate system based on creditworthiness of financial institutions, as considering singular premium system for all banks will have moral hazard. This paper aims to develop theoretical and empirical model for calculating dual fair premium rates. Design/methodology/approach: The definition of a fair premium rate in this paper is a rate that covers the operational expenditures of the deposit insuring organization, provides it with sufficient funds to enable it to pay a certain percentage share of deposit amounts to depositors in case of bank default and provides it with sufficient funds as precautionary reserves. To identify and classify healthier and more stable banks, the authors use credit rating methods that use two major dimensional reduction techniques. For forecasting nonperforming loans (NPLs), the authors develop a model that can capture both macro shocks and idiosyncratic shocks to financial institutions in a vector error correction model. Findings: The response of NPLs/loans to macro shocks and idiosyncratic innovations shows that using a model with macro variables only is insufficient, as it is possible that under favorable economic conditions, some banks show negative performance due to bank level reasons such as mismanagement or vice versa. The final results show that deposit insurance premium rate needs to be vary based on banks’ creditworthiness. Originality/value: The results provide interesting insight for financial authorities to set fair deposit insurance premium rate. A high premium rate reduces the capital adequacy of individual financial institutions, which endangers the stability of the financial system; a low premium rate will reduce the security of the financial system.

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経済学者が読み解く現代社会のリアル(第16回)高齢化時代の新・マクロ経済論

吉野直行, 宮本弘曉

週刊東洋経済（東洋経済新報社）（ 6855 ） 88 - 89 2019年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 0918-5755

Energy and Food Security: Linkages through Price Volatility

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Rasoulinezhad E., Yoshino N.

Energy Policy （Energy Policy） 128 796 - 806 2019年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 03014215

This study examines the linkages between energy price and food prices over the period 2000–2016 by using a Panel-VAR model in the case of eight Asian economies. Our results confirm that energy price (oil price) has a significant impact on food prices. According to the results of impulse response functions, agricultural food prices respond positively to any shock from oil prices. Our results show that there is a linkage between energy and food security through price volatility. Since inflation in oil price is harmful for food security, it would be necessary to diversify the energy consumption in this sector, from too much reliance on fossil fuels to an optimal combination of renewable and nonrenewable energy resources that will be in favor of not only the energy security by also the food security. In addition, the paper found that the impact of biofuel prices on food prices is statistically significant but explains less than 2% of the food price variance. However, by increasing the demand for biofuel, there should be more concern about the global increase in agricultural commodities prices and endangering food security, especially in vulnerable economies.

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Empirical analysis of factors influencing the price of solar modules

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Inagaki Y.

International Journal of Energy Sector Management （International Journal of Energy Sector Management） 13 （ 1 ） 77 - 97 2019年04月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 17506220

Purpose: One of the key drivers behind the recent growth in the global solar energy market is the decline in solar module prices. Many empirical analyses have been carried out to identify the mechanism behind this price reduction. However, studies on the price reduction mechanism of solar modules over the years have focused purely on the technological aspect of manufacturing. The purpose of this study is to consider the influence of economic and monetary factors such as the interest rate and exchange rate on solar module pricing in addition to other factors that considered in earlier studies including technology, wage rate and other energy prices. Design/methodology/approach: In this paper, an oligopolistic model and econometric method are used to determine the economic factors that have an influence on solar module prices. The paper constructs a solar module pricing model and conducts a fully modified ordinary least squares analysis to estimate the influence of each factor. Analysis is conducted for the top five solar module producing countries in the world from 1997 to 2015. The five countries are the People’s Republic of China, Germany, Japan, the Republic of Korea and the USA. Findings: Empirical analysis provides several findings concerning the solar module pricing mechanism. These vary for each country. However, generally the interest rate has a positive correlation with solar module prices, while the exchange rate, knowledge stock and oil price have a negative correlation with solar module prices. Practical implications: First, the government must expand channels for renewable energy funding. As renewable industries are high-tech, the influence that capital cost has on technology price is significant. Government efforts to provide industries with low-interest finance will accelerate renewable business. There have been many attempts to lower interest rates for renewable energy technology to accelerate growth in the green technology market. Second, the government must expand research and development (R&D) expenditures focused on renewable energy technology. The technological advancements acquired through R&D enhance module performance efficiency, thereby reducing costs. Therefore, government policies aimed at increasing targeted R&D expenditure will be an effective means of expanding the installation of renewable energies. Originality/value: Studies on the price reduction mechanism of solar modules over the years have focused purely on the technological aspect of the manufacturing. This is the first research to bring economic, monetary and technological factors of solar module pricing together.

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Modelling the social funding and spill-over tax for addressing the green energy financing gap

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Nakahigashi M.

Economic Modelling （Economic Modelling） 77 34 - 41 2019年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 02649993

The major challenge for filling the financing gaps of green energy is lower rate of return of green projects comparing to fossil fuels. Electricity tariffs are often regulated by governments; It has to be kept in low price to serve for every households as a necessary goods. Sources of revenue from green energy comes only from user charges. Hence it is not so much attractive for private investors. The paper is proposing a model for utilization of the tax revenue spillover of green energy supply by returning the portion of it to green energy projects in order to increase their rate of return. In addition, the paper is proposing a social community based funding scheme for smaller scale green projects (e.g. solar and wind). The paper theoretically and empirically shows that utilizing spillover effect in form of tax return for funding green energy projects will increase the rate of return and make them feasible and interesting for the private investors.

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A comprehensive method for credit risk assessment of small and medium-sized enterprises based on Asian data

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Unlocking SME Finance in Asia: Roles of Credit Rating and Credit Guarantee Schemes （Unlocking SME Finance in Asia: Roles of Credit Rating and Credit Guarantee Schemes） 55 - 71 2019年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 9781138353428

Due to the asymmetry of information between borrowers that are small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and lenders (banks), many banks consider this sector to be risky. It is crucial for banks to be able to distinguish healthy companies from risky ones in order to reduce their nonperforming assets in the SME sector. If they can do this, lending and financing to SMEs through banks will be easier, with lower collateral requirements and lower interest rates. In this chapter, we provide a scheme originally developed by Yoshino and Taghizadeh-Hesary (2014) for assigning credit ratings to SMEs by employing two statistical analysis techniques - principal component analysis and cluster analysis - using 11 financial ratios of 1,363 SMEs in Asia. If used by financial institutions, this comprehensive and efficient method could enable banks and other lending agencies around the world, especially in Asia, to group SME customers based on financial health, adjust interest rates on loans, and set lending ceilings for each group.

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Role of SMEs in Asia and the financing challenges they face

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Unlocking SME Finance in Asia: Roles of Credit Rating and Credit Guarantee Schemes （Unlocking SME Finance in Asia: Roles of Credit Rating and Credit Guarantee Schemes） 3 - 22 2019年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 9781138353428

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the backbone of the Asian economy. They make up more than 96% of all Asian businesses, providing two out of three private-sector jobs on the continent. Therefore, it is vital for Asia’s economic success that fully functioning support measures for SMEs are in place. However, SMEs face major challenges in accessing cheap finance, mainly because of the asymmetric information problem between suppliers and users of funds and high transaction costs. These lead to more collateral requirements for lending to SMEs with higher lending interest rates, which hinder their growth. As most Asian countries are bank-dominant economies, capital market financing is not a realistic option for SMEs. Therefore, we need to look for solutions that simplify banks’ lending to SMEs. This chapter will highlight the difficulties faced by SMEs in accessing finance and provide measures for mitigating them. The remedies proposed in this chapter include the development of a credit information infrastructure for SMEs, the utilization of credit-rating techniques for SMEs to address the problem of asymmetric information, and the development of a sustainable credit guarantee scheme to resolve the collateral issue.

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Land trust to facilitate development through land transfer

Yoshino N., Paul S., Sarma V., Lakhia S.

Land Acquisition in Asia: Towards a Sustainable Policy Framework （Land Acquisition in Asia: Towards a Sustainable Policy Framework） 135 - 145 2019年01月

ISSN 9789811364549

The recent political upheaval transgressing from the industrialization drive through forcible land grab in many parts of Asia (India, Indonesia, Nepal and the Philippines in particular) points to the need for a sustainable policy-a framework that results in a positive sum game, benefiting land owners without hurting growth prospects. Combining the tools from the fields of law and economics, we propose land trust or land lease for the development of infrastructure investment and industrialization purposes. We argue that this is one of the best ways to increase the rate of return to invite private investors into infrastructure investment. Through evidence from the success stories of land trust initiatives in many Asian countries, including India, we aim to showcase the relevance of this alternate method.

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Introduction

Yoshino N., Paul S.

Land Acquisition in Asia: Towards a Sustainable Policy Framework （Land Acquisition in Asia: Towards a Sustainable Policy Framework） 1 - 6 2019年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, ISSN 9789811364549

“Everything comes from land and ultimately goes back to it” explains an old Indian saying. All sense of value in an enterprise is rooted in the value of land. From business to warfare, the characteristics of land have the power to determine the ultimate success of the endeavour. From maintaining biodiversity to ensuring prosperity for all, the sound management of land resources is vitally important to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Asian Development Bank notes that more than 400 million Asians still lack electricity; roughly 300 million have no access to safe drinking water, and 1.5 billion lack basic sanitation. In many countries, power outages constrain economic growth. Development of infrastructure is a prerequisite for long-term sustainable economic growth. However, more than 8.8% of the GDP is needed to finance infrastructure-related projects in South Asia which are expected to have a spillover on the achievability of the SDGs.

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Establishment of the credit risk database: Concrete use to evaluate the creditworthiness of SMEs

Kuwahara S., Yoshino N., Sagara M., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Unlocking SME Finance in Asia: Roles of Credit Rating and Credit Guarantee Schemes （Unlocking SME Finance in Asia: Roles of Credit Rating and Credit Guarantee Schemes） 89 - 111 2019年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 9781138353428

A credit risk database (CRD) makes it possible to mitigate the problem of information asymmetry between SMEs and financial institutions and contributes to improving SMEs’ access to finance by collecting a large number of financial statements through the mechanism of SME finances and establishing a robust statistical model. In this chapter, we use the CRD in Japan, confirm the situation in Japan, and highlight the CRD’s contribution to evaluating the creditworthiness of SMEs. We also explain how to establish the CRD as a financial infrastructure, while indicating that the CRD and the scoring model based on it have maintained their quality due to their operating system. We hope our experience contributes to the introduction of a statistical CRD composed of a large number of anonymous financial statement data in other countries and that the CRD helps improve SMEs’ access to finance as a financial infrastructure.

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Credit risk analysis of small and medium-sized enterprises based on thai data

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Charoensivakorn P., Niraula B.

Unlocking SME Finance in Asia: Roles of Credit Rating and Credit Guarantee Schemes （Unlocking SME Finance in Asia: Roles of Credit Rating and Credit Guarantee Schemes） 112 - 135 2019年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 9781138353428

Small and medium-sized enterprise (SMEs) often face severe difficulties raising money. Considering the bank-dominated characteristic of Asian economies, banks are the main source of financing. In order to prevent the accumulation of nonperforming loans in the SME sector, it is crucial for banks to distinguish healthy SMEs from risky ones. This chapter examines how a credit rating scheme for SMEs can be developed when financial and non-financial data are not accessible just by using lending data of banks to SMEs. We employ statistical techniques on five variables from a sample of 3,272 Thai SMEs and classify them into subgroups based on their financial health. The source of data used for the credit risk analysis in this research is the National Credit Bureau of Thailand. By employing these techniques, banks could reduce information asymmetry and consequently set interest rates and lending ceilings for SMEs. This would ease financing to healthy SMEs and reduce the number of nonperforming loans to this important sector.

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Conclusion

Yoshino N., Paul S.

Land Acquisition in Asia: Towards a Sustainable Policy Framework （Land Acquisition in Asia: Towards a Sustainable Policy Framework） 183 - 184 2019年01月

ISSN 9789811364549

The acquisition, administration, and allotment of land for the purposes of development are intimately tied up with the issues of rights, local aspirations, power structures, and economic factors. This book has aimed to explore through diverse perspectives of the land grab crisis and its impact on those displaced within Asia. Throughout, we have sought to establish that land is a crucial factor in attaining sustainable development and approaching it from just an economic perspective would mean to isolate the multiple other factors that involve land management. Evidence from our regional case studies also pointed for the need of a policy framework that we proposed as the land trust method of Japan, explained in Chap. 9.

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Attitudes toward land acquisition in indonesia

Yoshino N., Parinduri R.A., Oishi Y.

Land Acquisition in Asia: Towards a Sustainable Policy Framework （Land Acquisition in Asia: Towards a Sustainable Policy Framework） 57 - 79 2019年01月

ISSN 9789811364549

Indonesia, a country with the fourth-largest population and abundant energy resources, is yet to fully optimize its potential. Especially, the high cost of logistics, missing links in the road network, and the unstable power supply undermine opportunities to revitalize economic activities. While there is a constant need for developing infrastructures, the country has struggled with tardy or unsuccessful land acquisitions. This research investigates the landowners’ decision-making in the land lease for infrastructure. The investigation of the determinants of leasing will provide insights into land planning and the negotiation process. We find that landlords are less willing to rent out their land if they self-cultivate the plots, if plots have been obtained through inheritance or have been owned for a longer period and if the land area is small particularly in the case of non-wetlands and plots located in their villages. Currently, the compensation is calculated based on the physical value of relinquished property. For the better facilitation of land acquisition for infrastructure projects, it would be advisable to take the above factors into account, as it would encourage landowners to accept the proposed compensation.

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Preface

Naoyuki Yoshino, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

Unlocking SME Finance in Asia: Roles of Credit Rating and Credit Guarantee Schemes （Springer） 201 （ 1 ） xxi - xxi 2019年01月

共著, ISSN 0920-5861

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Unlocking SME finance in Asia: Roles of credit rating and credit guarantee Schemes

Naoyuki Yoshino, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

Unlocking SME Finance in Asia: Roles of Credit Rating and Credit Guarantee Schemes 1 - 400 2019年01月

共著

© 2020 Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). There is limited access for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to bank credit. This book proposes new and sustainable models to help ease the access of SMEs to finance and boost economic growth and job creation in Asia. This book looks at the difficulties of SMEs in accessing finance and suggests ways on how to mitigate these challenges. It suggests how we can develop credit information infrastructures for SMEs to remedy the asymmetric information problem and to utilize credit rating techniques for the development of a sustainable credit guarantee scheme. The book provides illustrations of various Asian economies that implemented credit guarantee schemes and credit risk databases and is a useful reference for lessons and policy recommendations.

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Hoarseness as an Initial Symptom of Thymic Carcinoma: A Case Report.

Takeuchi S, Yoshino N, Usuda J

Journal of Nippon Medical School = Nippon Ika Daigaku zasshi 86 （ 6 ） 357 - 359 2019年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1345-4676

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International remittances and poverty reduction: Evidence from developing Asia

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Otsuka M.

Journal of Comparative Asian Development （Journal of Comparative Asian Development） 17 （ 2 ） 21 - 42 2019年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 15339114

International remittances represent the second-most-important source of external funding for developing countries after foreign direct investment (FDI). This paper examines the impact of international remittances on poverty reduction using the panel data of 10 Asian developing countries. In terms of the dependent variables, this paper sets 3 poverty indicators: the poverty headcount ratio, poverty gap ratio, and poverty severity ratio. The results show that international remittances have a statistically significant impact on the reduction of the poverty gap ratio and poverty severity ratio using the random-effect model of ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates. A 1% increase in international remittances as a percentage of the GDP can lead to a 22.6% decline in the poverty gap ratio and a 16.0% decline in the poverty severity ratio in the sample of 10 Asian developing countries from 1981 to 2014. In addition, the results indicate that a per capita GDP increase and trade openness can decrease the poverty measures and that higher inflation rates may be one of the causes of poverty.

Optimal fiscal policy rule for achieving fiscal sustainability: The Japanese case

Yoshino N., Mizoguchi T., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Global Business and Economics Review （Global Business and Economics Review） 21 （ 2 ） 156 - 173 2019年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 10974954

Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio is the highest among OECD countries. While the Domar condition and Bohn's conditions are often used in the literature to check whether a government's debt situation is in a dangerous zone, this paper shows that the Domar condition is obtained only from the supply of government bonds without consideration of the demand side. In addition, Bohn's condition satisfies the stability of the government budget in the long run and even if the condition is satisfied, the recovery of the economy may not be achieved. This paper proposes a new condition considering both the demand and supply of the bond market that satisfies both the stability of the government budget and the recovery of the economy. The empirical findings show that to achieve fiscal sustainability, both sides of the Japanese Government budget (expenditure and revenue) need to be adjusted simultaneously and the decrease in government expenditure has to be more than the increase in tax revenue.

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REMEDIES FOR MITIGATING ASIAN SMEs' ACCESS-TO-FINANCE DIFFICULTIES

Yoshino Naoyuki, Taghizadeh-Hesary Farhad

ROUTLEDGE HANDBOOK OF BANKING AND FINANCE IN ASIA 371 - 385 2019年

共著

Importance of Green Finance for Achieving Sustainable Development Goals and Energy Security

Jeffrey D. Sachs, Wing Thye Woo, Naoyuki Yoshino, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

2019年

共著, 査読有り

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Role of Hometown Investment Trust Funds and Spillover Taxes in Unlocking Private-Sector Investment into Green Projects

Naoyuki Yoshino, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

2019年

共著, 査読有り

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Trading and Ordering Patterns of Market Participants in High Frequency Trading Environment: Empirical Study in the Japanese Stock Market

Saito T., Adachi T., Nakatsuma T., Takahashi A., Tsuda H., Yoshino N.

Asia-Pacific Financial Markets （Asia-Pacific Financial Markets） 25 （ 3 ） 179 - 220 2018年09月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 13872834

In this study, we investigate ordering patterns of different types of market participants in Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) by examining order records of the listed stocks. Firstly, we categorize the virtual servers in the trading system of TSE, each of which is linked to a single trading participant, by the ratio of cancellation and execution in the order placement as well as the number of executions at the opening of the afternoon session. Then, we analyze ordering patterns of the servers in the categories in short intervals for the top 10 highest trading volume stocks. By classifying the intervals into four cases by returns, we observe how different types of market participants submit or execute orders in the market situations. Moreover, we investigate the shares of the executed volumes for the different types of servers in the swings and roundabouts of the Nikkei 225 index, which were observed in September in 2015. The main findings of this study are as follows: Server type A, which supposedly includes non-market making proprietary traders with high-speed algorithmic strategies, executes and places orders along with the direction of the market. The shares of the execution and order volumes along with the market direction increase when the stock price moves sharply. Server type B, which presumably includes servers employing a market making strategy with high cancellation and low execution ratio, shifts its market making price ranges in the rapid price movements. We observe that passive servers in Server type B have a large share and buy at low levels in the price falls. Also, Server type B, as well as Server type A, makes profit in the price falling days and particularly, the aggressive servers in the server type make most of the profit. Server type C, which is assumed to include servers receiving orders from small investors, constantly has a large share of execution and order volume.

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Establishment of a cell model of X-linked sideroblastic anemia using genome editing.

Kaneko K, Kubota Y, Nomura K, Hayashimoto H, Chida T, Yoshino N, Wayama M, Ogasawara K, Nakamura Y, Tooyama I, Furuyama K

Experimental hematology 65 57 - 68.e2 2018年09月

共著, ISSN 0301-472X

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Alternatives to private finance: Role of fiscal policy reforms and energy taxation in development of renewable energy projects

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Financing for Low-carbon Energy Transition: Unlocking the Potential of Private Capital （Financing for Low-carbon Energy Transition: Unlocking the Potential of Private Capital） 335 - 357 2018年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 9789811085819

The main obstacle to the development of Renewable Energy (RE) projects is lack of access to finance. Electricity tariff is often regulated by the government, hence, to increase the investment incentives the spill over effects originally created by energy supplies need to be used. Tax revenues are refunded to the investors in energy projects and such fiscal policy reform will increase the rate of return of energy projects. For smaller-size energy projects, this chapter provides a theoretical model for combining utilisation of carbon tax and a new way of financing risky capital, i.e., Hometown Investment Trust Funds (HITs). Because of the Basel capital requirement, and because most RE projects from the point of view of financers are considered to be risky projects, and thus many financers are reluctant to lend to them or they lend at high interest rates. This chapter theoretically shows that by taxing carbon dioxide (CO ), sulphur dioxide (SO ), and nitrogen oxides (NO ) and allocating those tax revenues to HITs, RE projects will become more feasible and more interesting for hometown investors, hence the supply of investment money to these funds will increase. 2 2 x

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Impact of International Remittances on Poverty Reduction: Case of Developing Asia

吉野直行

Global Solutions Journal 1 （ 1 ） 90 - 96 2018年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り

FINANCIAL INCLUSION, FINANCIAL STABILITY AND INCOME INEQUALITY: INTRODUCTION

Yoshino N., Morgan P.

Singapore Economic Review （Singapore Economic Review） 63 （ 1 ） 1 - 7 2018年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 02175908

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HOUSEHOLD INCOME DYNAMICS IN A LOWER-INCOME SMALL OPEN ECONOMY: A COMPARISON OF BANKING AND CROWDFUNDING REGIMES

McNelis P., Yoshino N.

Singapore Economic Review （Singapore Economic Review） 63 （ 1 ） 147 - 166 2018年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 02175908

This paper examines asset price and household income/consumption dynamics in a small open economy subject to terms of trade shocks, under two financial regimes. The first is a pure banking regime, in which firms borrow from banks for financing costs of labor, investment and intermediate goods for both the relatively riskless natural-resource traded sector and the non-traded sector. The second regime is more financially-inclusive banking/crowdfunding (BCF) regime, in which the households directly receive returns to capital from pooled lending to home-goods firms. Simulation results show that the banking regime better insulates the economy from negative shocks but limits the upside gain from positive shocks which would take place in the banking-crowdfunding regime.

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Mast cells partially contribute to mucosal adjuvanticity of surfactin in mice.

Yoshino N, Takeshita R, Kawamura H, Sasaki Y, Kagabu M, Sugiyama T, Muraki Y, Sato S

Immunity, inflammation and disease 6 （ 1 ） 117 - 127 2018年03月

共著

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Mast cells partially contribute to mucosal adjuvanticity of surfactin in mice.

Yoshino N, Takeshita R, Kawamura H, Sasaki Y, Kagabu M, Sugiyama T, Muraki Y, Sato S

Immunity, inflammation and disease 6 （ 1 ） 117 - 127 2018年03月

共著

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Optimization of trypsins for influenza A/H1N1 virus replication in MDCK SI-6 cells, a novel MDCK cell line.

Iskandar VI, Sasaki Y, Yoshino N, Abubakar RZR, Sato S, Muraki Y

Journal of virological methods 252 94 - 99 2018年02月

共著, ISSN 0166-0934

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Optimization of trypsins for influenza A/H1N1 virus replication in MDCK SI-6 cells, a novel MDCK cell line.

Iskandar VI, Sasaki Y, Yoshino N, Abubakar RZR, Sato S, Muraki Y

Journal of virological methods 252 94 - 99 2018年02月

共著, ISSN 0166-0934

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Housing bubbles and banking behaviors in China: A macro perspective

Yoshino N., Li V.J.

Journal of Comparative Asian Development （Journal of Comparative Asian Development） 17 （ 1 ） 73 - 94 2018年

ISSN 15339114

The objective of this paper is to evaluate if China’s housing market has formulated bubbles in recent years, and the relationship between housing bubbles and banking behaviors. Based on three theoretical models, a set of signaling and early warning bubble indicators are adopted, including growth of M2 and bank loans, indices of Shibor and stock market, ratios of bank loan and real estate loan to GDP, and housing affordability indicators. We observe various signals for housing bubbles in China with reference to Japan in the late 1980s and USA in the 2000s, with more significant bubble signals since 2014. To explore the potential systematic risks for the financial systems (such as the consequences of housing market collapses in Japan and USA), the performances of large and medium sized Chinese banks are examined regarding the impacts of housing prices and other variables on bank loans. Empirical evidence suggests that housing asset appreciation provides higher mortgage collateral for commercial banks, thus increasing bank loan which may speed up the formation of housing bubbles. The findings have rich implications for understanding China’s current challenge in the financial de-leveraging process.

Combining environmental taxation, spill-over effects and community-based financing in development of renewable energy projects in Asia

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Economics and Policy of Energy and the Environment （Economics and Policy of Energy and the Environment） 2018 （ 1 ） 133 - 148 2018年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 22807659

Asian economies are often characterized as having bank-dominated financial systems and underdeveloped capital markets, in particular with regard to venture capital. In economies that banks are the main source of funding, the main obstacle for financing infrastructural projects including renewable energy (RE) projects is lack of access to long-term finance. The second obstacle for development of RE energy projects is their lower rate of return comparing to fossil fuel projects as more subsidies are globally going to fossil fuels. For larger RE projects insurance and pensions are sustainable financing alternatives. Pension funds and insurance companies hold long-term savings, so these institutions could be a proper alternative for financing mega-size RE projects. In addition, utilizing the spillover effects originally created by energy supplies in form of tax revenues refund to RE projects will increase their rate of return and make them interesting for private investors. For smaller-size RE projects, the paper provides a theoretical model for combining utilisation of carbon tax and a new way of financing risky capital, i.e., Hometown Investment Trust Funds (HITs). The paper theoretically shows that by environmental taxation and allocating these tax revenues to HITs, RE projects will become more feasible and more interesting for private investors; hence the supply of investment money to these funds will increase.

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Assessment of the channels of transmission of oil price fluctuations to the economy

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N.

Argumenta Oeconomica （Argumenta Oeconomica） 41 （ 2 ） 5 - 34 2018年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 12335835

This paper develops a New Keynesian model to examine a theoretical global economy with two basic macroeconomic components: an energy1 producer and an energy consumer. This simple economy uses these two components to evaluate how oil prices affect the consumer economy’s gross domestic product and inflation. This model assumes that changes in the oil price transfer to macro variables through either supply (aggregate supply curve) or demand channels (aggregate demand curve). To examine the effects of this transfer, an Investment-Saving (IS) curve is used to look at the demand side and a Phillips curve is used to analyze the inflationary effects from the supply side. The empirical analysis concludes that movements in the oil price mainly affect the economy through the demand side (shifting the aggregate demand curve) by affecting household expenditures and energy consumption. This analysis provides several additional findings, among which is that easy monetary policies amplify energy demand more than supply, resulting in skyrocketing crude oil prices, which inhibit economic growth.

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マクロ経済学の視点原油価格の下落が引き金高齢社会の構造にも問題 (大論争なぜ物価は上がらないか)

吉野直行, 宮本弘暁

エコノミスト（毎日新聞出版） 95 （ 42 ） 82 - 83 2017年10月

共著, ISSN 0013-0621

Declined effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies faced with aging population in Japan

Naoyuki Yoshino, Hiroaki Miyamoto

JAPAN AND THE WORLD ECONOMY （ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV） 42 32 - 44 2017年06月

共著, ISSN 0922-1425

This paper studies how population aging affects economic performance and the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies. We develop a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households: workers and retirees. We demonstrate that an increase in the proportion of working population increases aggregate output, consumption, and investment by increasing total labor supply in the long run. It also increases wages and reduces the social security burden of the government. This paper also finds that the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies is weakened when the proportion of retirees becomes larger. (C) 2017 Published by Elsevier B.V.

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An impact evaluation of investment in infrastructure: The case of a railway connection in Uzbekistan

Naoyuki Yoshino, Umid Abidhadjaev

Journal of Asian Economics （Elsevier B.V.） 49 1 - 11 2017年04月

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1049-0078

The Tashguzar–Baysun–Kumkurgan (TBK) railway connection, completed in 2007 in southern Uzbekistan, provided a domestic through line to link rail stretches formerly connected only via neighboring Turkmenistan. We hypothesize that a better integrated domestic rail system would yield economic spillovers beyond the regions actually traversed by the new connector to generate higher growth for neighboring regions and even for the far terminal reaches of the system. We test for this using a difference in difference approach that assesses the impact of the rail connector on economic performance for each of three regional groupings relative to a control group of unaffected regions. We further distinguish effects for the short term (2008), medium term (2009–10), and long term (2011–12). We find statistically significant increases in GDP growth for all three regional groupings at medium or long term horizons with magnitudes of increase up to 2.6 percentage points per year.

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信託機能を活用したファイナンス手法等の海外展開に向けた考察(1) (信託経済コンファレンス : 信託機能を活用したファイナンス手法等の海外展開に向けた考察)

吉野直行

信託（信託協会）（ 269 ） 114 - 128 2017年02月

共著, ISSN 0386-1368

Decline of oil prices and the negative interest rate policy in Japan

Naoyuki Yoshino, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Nour Tawk

ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL STUDIES-EPS （TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD） 5 （ 2 ） 233 - 250 2017年

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 2095-4816

In April 2013, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) introduced an inflation target of 2% with the aim of overcoming deflation and achieving sustainable economic growth. But due to lower international oil prices it was unable to achieve this target and was forced to take further measures. Hence, in February 2016, the BOJ adopted a negative interest rate policy by massively increasing the money supply through the purchase of long-term Japanese government bonds (JGB). The BOJ had previously only purchased short-term government bonds, a policy that flattened the yield curve of JGBs. On the one hand, banks reduced the number of government bonds they purchased because short-term bond yields had become negative. The interest rates of long-term government bond up to 15 years even became negative. On the other hand, bank loans to corporates did not increase, due to Japanese economy's vertical investment-saving (IS) curve. The purpose of this paper is to show that the monetary policy through implementation of the zero interest rate and more recently through the negative interest rate could not help the Japanese economy to recover from the long-lasting recession and these are not the remedy. It is of key importance to make the IS curve downward rather than vertical. That means the rate of return on investment must be positive and companies must be willing to invest even if interest rates are set too low. Japan's long-term recession is due to structural problems that cannot be solved by its current monetary policy. The paper also explains why the BOJ has to reduce its 2% inflation target in the present low oil price era.

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為替制度の移行における動学的な最適経路：中国，シンガポール，マレーシアの分析

吉野直行, 阿曽沼多聞

国際経済（日本国際経済学会） 68 31 - 52 2017年

共著

<p>本稿では中国・シンガポール・マレーシアにおける為替制度の最適な移行について議論する。中国は現在，ドルペッグ制を採用しているが，今後，どのような形でバスケットペッグ制または変動相場制といった望ましい為替制度に移行するのが良いか。そして中国が為替制度を徐々に変更していく場合に，シンガポールやマレーシアはどのように為替制度を変更していけばよいか。この二つの問いに答えるために，本稿は小国開放経済を想定し動学的確率的一般均衡モデル（DSGE）を用い厚生関数（損失関数）で評価をする。その中で，現行制度からバスケットペッグ制または変動相場制への移行について複数の移行策を検討する。中国にとっては経済成長（GDPの成長）を安定化させるためにはバスケットペッグ制への漸進的な移行が最適な移行経路となる。シンガポールとマレーシアも徐々に為替制度を移行してバスケット通貨制とすることが，もっとも経済成長を安定化させる結果になることが示された。 </p>

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The effectiveness of the negative interest rate policy in Japan

Naoyuki Yoshino, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Hiroaki Miyamoto

Credit and Capital Markets 50 （ 2 ） 189 - 212 2017年

共著, ISSN 2199-1227

© 2017, Duncker und Humblot GmbH. All rights reserved. In April 2013, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), in order to overcome deflation and achieve sustainable economic growth, introduced an inflation target of 2 %. However due to the lower oil prices in the global market, this target could not be achieved for a long-term period. In Feb 2016, the BOJ took further steps, and started a negative interest rate policy, by increasing massive money supply through purchasing long-term Japanese government bonds (JGB). Previously the BOJ only purchased short-term government bonds. This policy has flattened the yield curve of JGBs. Banks started to reduce purchasing government bonds, because the yield of short-term government bonds’ became negative, and even for long-term government bonds up to 15 years the interest rates became negative. On the other hand, bank loans to the corporate sector did not grow, due to the vertical investment-saving (IS) curve in the Japanese economy. This paper discusses that first, in the low oil price era, the BOJ has to modify the inflation target of 2 % and reduce it, secondly it argues that the role of monetary policy and the negative interest rate policy in Japan cannot recover from the current recession and deflation situation for the long term. What is important is to make the IS curve downward sloping rather than vertical. That means the rate of return on investment must be positive and companies must be willing to invest if interest rates were set too low. The recession in Japan is coming from structural problems that cannot be solved by the current monetary policy. The last section reports a simulation results of tackling aging population of Japan by introducing productivity based wage rate and postpone retirement age will help the recovery of Japanese economy.

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MAJOR CHALLENGES SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES FACING WITHIN ASIA: SOLUTIONS FOR MITIGATING THEM

Naoyuki Yoshino, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

ENTREPRENEURS. ENTREPRENEURSHIP: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE 21ST CENTURY （TRITONIC PUBL HOUSE） 102 - 124 2017年

共著, 査読有り

Small and Medium-sized enterprises are the backbone of the Asian economy. They make up more than 98% of all Asian businesses that provide two out of three private sector jobs in the continent. Therefore, it is vitally important for the Asian's economic success that has fully functioning support measures for SMEs. However, SMEs face challenges from limited access to finance, lack of a database to low R&D expenditures, undeveloped sales channels, and low level of financial inclusion are some of the reasons behind the slow growth of SMEs. This paper focuses on four major reasons that slowed the SME growth in Asia including (i) Lack of finance (ii) Lack of comprehensive database, (iii) Low level of R&D expenditures and (iv) Insufficient usage of Information technology and provides remedies for mitigating them. It is important for the Asian policymakers to implement these remedies in order to promote the production and employment in the SME sector which is the essential part of the Asian economies and is in the supply chain of large enterprises as well.

Impact of the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster on the Oil-Consuming Sectors of Japan

Taghizadeh-Hesary, F., Yoshino, N., Rasoulinezhad, E.

Journal of Comparative Asian Development （Informa {UK} Limited） 16 （ 2 ） 113 - 134 2017年

共著, 査読有り

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Finding stability in a time of prolonged crisis: Unconventional policy rules for Japan

Paul D. McNelis, Naoyuki Yoshino

JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL STABILITY （ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC） 27 122 - 136 2016年12月

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1572-3089

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model representing several key characteristics of Japan, namely, a large open economy, with large fiscal deficits and increasing amounts of debt held by domestic residents, through recurring sets of adverse shocks to productivity and positiye shocks to government spending.
We compare optimal simple rules for consumption tax rates, a Taylor rule with negative interest rates, and a quantitative easing rule, for reducing government debt held by the banking system, as well as optimizing welfare. In times of crisis, we show that the QE policy rule outperforms optimally -derived simple tax-rate rules or Taylor rules with negative interest rates for mitigating the costs of post -crisis adjustment and debt overhang. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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地域銀行の経営統合 : 課題と展望—特集地銀のグループ経営

真鍋雅史, 平賀一希, 大庫直樹, 吉野直行

月刊金融ジャーナル（金融ジャーナル社） 57 （ 12 ） 8 - 13 2016年12月

共著, ISSN 0453-9176

Monetary Policy, Oil Prices and the Real Macroeconomic Variables: An Empirical Survey on China, Japan and the United States

Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Naoyuki Yoshino

CHINA-AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL （NUS PRESS PTE LTD） 14 （ 4 ） 46 - 69 2016年11月

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 0219-7472

This article examines the impact of US monetary policy as the world dominant monetary policy on the global crude oil prices and investigates the impact of oil price fluctuations on two real macro variables (gross domestic product [GDP] and inflation rate) of three global major crude oil consumers: the People's Republic of China (an emerging economy), and Japan and the United States (developed economies). To assess the relationship between monetary variables, crude oil prices and macro variables, the authors adopt an N-variable structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. The results suggest that the monetary policy had a significant positive impact on oil prices during 2001-13 through two different channels (quantitative easing and exchange rate fluctuations). Also, the impact of oil price fluctuations on developed oil importers' GDP growth is much milder than on the GDP growth of an emerging economy. However, the impact on the China's inflation rate is found to be less severe compared to the two developed countries.

Exchange rate regime switching in Malaysia and Singapore in response to China's move to a basket peg: A DSGE analysis

Naoyuki Yoshino, Sahoko Kaji, Tamon Asonuma

JOURNAL OF ASIAN ECONOMICS （ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV） 46 17 - 37 2016年10月

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1049-0078

Motivated by the observation that when China broke from its US dollar peg in 2005, Malaysia and Singapore likewise loosened their currency ties to the US dollar, this paper considers how these two countries might best respond to a hypothetical transition by China to a new basket peg regime. We specify five alternative exchange rate strategies that encompass fixed, basket, and floating regimes and gradual versus sudden transitions. To project outcomes for macroeconomic variables under these alternative regimes, we apply a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small open economy and incorporate exogenous shocks as actually occurred from 2005 Q1 to 2014 Q4. We then compare the strategies based on values of a cumulative loss function defined on the output gap, the inflation rate, and the real effective exchange rate. The exercise reveals that a gradual adjustment to a basket peg with long-term optimal weights is the first-best policy for both countries, where optimal weights are derived to minimize the loss function. Further, both a sudden shift to a basket peg with optimal weights and a sudden shift to a floating rate regime are superior to maintaining the dollar peg in Malaysia, but not to maintaining the existing basket peg in Singapore. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier Inc.

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Dynamic effects of changes in the exchange rate system

Naoyuki Yoshino, Sahoko Kaji, Tamon Asonuma

Asian Development Review （MIT Press Journals） 33 （ 1 ） 111 - 161 2016年03月

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 0116-1105

We propose a new dynamic transition analysis on the basis of a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Our proposed analysis differs from existing static and conventional dynamic analyses in that shifts from a fixed exchange rate regime to a basket peg or a floating regime are explicitly explored.We apply quantitative analysis, using data from the People’s Republic of China and Thailand, and find that both economieswould be better off shifting from a dollar peg to a basket peg or a floating regime over the long run. Furthermore, the longer the transition period, the greater the benefits of shifting to a basket peg regime from a dollar peg regime owing to limited volatility in interest rates. Regarding sudden shifts to a desired regime, the welfare gains are larger under a shift to a basket peg if the exchange rate fluctuates significantly.

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Why is financial education needed in Asia?

Naoyuki Yoshino, Peter J. Morgan, Ganeshan Wignaraja

Promoting Better Lifetime Planning through Financial Education （World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.） 20 - 30 2016年03月

共著, 査読有り

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Promoting better lifetime planning through financial education

Naoyuki Yoshino, Flore-Anne Messy, Peter J. Morgan

Promoting Better Lifetime Planning through Financial Education （World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.） 1 - 205 2016年03月

共著

Surveys show that financial literacy levels are typically low around the world, despite the widening access to financial services and the increasing financial risks borne by households in many countries. This suggests that there will be mounting challenges for households and SMEs to invest wisely and effectively as societies age and governments shift away from defined benefit to defined contribution pension schemes. Individuals will increasingly have to make complex financial decisions to plan for their retirement and for a range of foreseen and unforeseen expenditures. All of these developments suggest that financial education should be part of a lifetime process that starts at an early age and is pursued throughout adulthood. The contributions in this book came from a symposium titled, Promoting Better Lifetime Planning through Financial Education, organized by the Asian Development Bank Institute, the Bank of Japan, the Japan Financial Services Agency, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, held on 22-23 January 2015 in Tokyo. Amongst the topics discussed were: effective pension management, financial education curricula in schools, training for teachers of financial education, internationally comparable data on financial literacy and the evaluation of the effectiveness of financial education programs. There are also case studies on financial inclusion, regulation, and education in Indonesia, Pakistan, Philippines, Viet Nam, Thailand, and Japan.

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Causes and Remedies of the Japan's Long-lasting Recession: Lessons for China

Naoyuki Yoshino, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

CHINA & WORLD ECONOMY （WILEY-BLACKWELL） 24 （ 2 ） 23 - 47 2016年03月

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1671-2234

Japan has suffered from sluggish economic growth and recession since the early 1990s. In this paper, we analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy (the lost decade). Economics Nobel laureate Paul Krugman has argued that Japan's lost decade is an example of a liquidity trap. However, our empirical analysis shows that stagnation of the Japanese economy comes from its vertical IS curve rather than a horizontal LM curve, so the Japanese economy has been facing structural problems rather than a temporary downturn. The vertical IS curve is caused by an insensitivity of investment to a lower interest rate partly because of the decline of sales due to the aging population and firms not wanting to invest. The structural problems come from the aging demographic, which is often neglected by scholars and policy-makers, and also from the allocation of transfers from the central government to local governments, and the unwillingness of Japanese banks to lend money to startup businesses and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), mainly because of Basel capital requirements. Many countries, like China, are expected to face similar issues, particularly given the aging population. The present paper will address why the Japanese economy has been trapped in a prolonged slowdown and provide some remedies for revitalizing the economy.

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地方創生・人口減少社会に対応する「ふるさと信託」 (信託経済コンファレンス地方創生・人口減少社会に対応する信託)

吉野直行

信託（信託協会）（ 265 ） 186 - 202 2016年02月

共著, ISSN 0386-1368

Response of macro variables of emerging and developed oil importers to oil price movements

Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Naoyuki Yoshino, Majid Mohammadi Hossein Abadi, Rosa Farboudmanesh

JOURNAL OF THE ASIA PACIFIC ECONOMY （ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD） 21 （ 1 ） 91 - 102 2016年01月

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1354-7860

This paper assesses the impact of crude oil price movements on two macro variables, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and consumer price index inflation rate, in the developed economies of the United States and Japan, and an emerging economy, the People's Republic of China (PRC). These countries were chosen for this research because they are the world's three largest oil consumers. The main objective of this study is to see whether these economies are still reactive to oil price movements. The results obtained suggest that the impact of oil price fluctuations on developed oil importers' GDP growth is much lower than on the GDP growth of an emerging economy. The main reasons for this lie in fuel substitution (higher use of nuclear energy, gas, and renewables), a declining population (for Japan), the shale gas revolution (for the United States), and strategic oil stocks and government-mandated energy efficiency targets in developed economies. All of these factors make developed economies more resistant to oil shocks. On the other hand, the impact of oil price movements on the PRC's inflation rate was found to be milder than in the two developed countries that were examined. The main cause for this is that the PRC experiences a larger forward shift in its aggregate supply due to higher growth, which allows it to avoid a massive increase in price levels following oil price shocks.

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Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise (SME) Credit Risk Analysis Using Bank Lending Data: An Analysis of Thai SMEs

Yoshino, N., Taghizadeh-Hesary, F., Charoensivakorn, P., Niraula, B.

Journal of Comparative Asian Development 15 （ 3 ） 383 - 406 2016年

共著, 査読有り

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これからの消費生活における適切な選択：消費者教育の視点から

吉野直行, 東珠実

生活経済学研究（生活経済学会） 44 1 - 4 2016年

共著, ISSN 1341-7347

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金融経済教育を議論する目的とその必要性

吉野直行

生活経済学研究（生活経済学会） 44 5 - 10 2016年

共著, ISSN 1341-7347

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日本共済協会業務研究会報告アジアの経済・金融情勢と日本への示唆

吉野直行

共済と保険（共済保険研究会） 57 （ 12 ） 4 - 9 2015年12月

共著, ISSN 2187-1795

Adjustments of Capital Account Restrictions and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia

Naoyuki Yoshino, Sahoko Kaji, Tamon Asonuma

Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy （World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte Ltd） 6 （ 3 ） 2015年10月

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1793-9941

This paper discusses adjustments of capital account restrictions and exchange rate regimes in East Asia. Monetary authorities have two options for these adjustments: Gradual adjustments and rapid adjustments. We analyze the costs and benefits for both adjustment options in each area, i.e., capital account restrictions and exchange rate regimes. The paper provides prominent country cases for each adjustment option to emphasize the benefits for policymakers. We then propose four transition policy options for East Asian countries aiming to relax capital account restrictions and increase flexibility in exchange rates from fixed regimes with capital account controls.

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インフラの経済効果の変化とそのファイナンス手法 (特集社会インフラの再検討)

中東雅樹, 吉野直行

フィナンシャル・レビュー（財務省財務総合政策研究所 ; [1986]-） 2015 （ 4 ） 77 - 94 2015年10月

共著, ISSN 0912-5892

クラウドファンディングを活用した「ふるさと投資ファンド」

吉野直行, 青山直子

信託フォーラム = Shintaku forum （日本加除出版） 4 83 - 90 2015年09月

共著, ISSN 2188-4773

投資信託のさらなる普及に向けた費用体系を考える : 投資家、運用会社、販売会社のインセンティブが一致する仕組みが重要

吉野直行, 青山直子

金融財政事情（金融財政事情研究会 ; [1950]-） 66 （ 33 ） 34 - 39 2015年08月

共著, ISSN 1345-3033

Dynamic Analysis of the Exchange Rate Regime: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in East Asia

Naoyuki Yoshino, Sahoko Kaji, Tamon Asonuma

REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS （WILEY-BLACKWELL） 19 （ 3 ） 624 - 637 2015年08月

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1363-6669

This paper discusses exchange rate policies in East Asia. In particular, we explore whether actual policies that have been implemented by East Asian countries after the Asian Financial Crisis follow or deviate from theoretically desirable policies over the medium and long terms. On theoretical analysis, we show the relative superiority of a basket-peg regime with the basket weight rule when compared with a floating regime implementing the interest rate rule or money supply rule. For countries that currently adopt a fixed exchange rate regime, they would be better off shifting toward either a basket-peg or a floating regime over the medium term. A shift to a basket peg is more preferred when compared with a shift to a floating regime when the exchange rate fluctuations are large.

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アジア経済と信託の活用 (信託経済コンファレンス : わが国におけるエネルギーの課題と信託の活用可能性)

吉野直行

信託（信託協会）（ 261 ） 111 - 131 2015年02月

共著, ISSN 0386-1368

Foreword

Naoyuki Yoshino

Renminbi Internationalization: Achievements, Prospects and Challenges （Brookings Institution Press） 1 - 241 2015年01月

共著

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An Analysis of Challenges Faced by Japan’s Economy and Abenomics

タギザーデヘサーリ, ファルハード

The Japanese Political Economy 40 （ 3-4 ） 1 - 26 2015年

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 2329-194X

Abstract: “Abenomics” refers to the economic policies advocated by Shinzo Abe, who became prime minister of Japan for a second time when his Liberal Democratic Party won an overwhelming majority in the general election in December 2012. Abenomics is distinguished by a set of policies comprising “three arrows”: (1) aggressive monetary policy, (2) fiscal consolidation, and (3) a growth strategy. The Japanese economy faces an aging population and increasing social welfare expenses. No other country has experienced such rapid growth of the number of retired people. In this article we will explain all three aspects of Abenomics, examine the current state of the Japanese economy, and explore what further remedies may be required if Japan is to recover from its long-term deflation. We will look at such proposals as hometown investment trust funds, postponement of the retirement age by introducing a flexible wage rate system, and changing the pension system to 401(k) style instruments.

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Macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on emerging and developed economies in a model incorporating monetary variables

Taghizadeh-Hesary, F., Yoshino, N.

Economics and Policy of Energy and the Environment 2015 （ 2 ） 51 - 75 2015年

共著, 査読有り

Effectiveness of the Easing of Monetary Policy in the Japanese Economy, incorporating Energy Prices

Yoshino, N., Taghizadeh-Hesary, F.

Journal of Comparative Asian Development 14 （ 2 ） 227 - 248 2015年

共著, 査読有り

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Determining the optimal structure of government debt in Indonesia

Ahmad Danu Prasetyo, Naoyuki Yoshino

Global Business and Economics Review （Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.） 17 （ 4 ） 445 - 466 2015年

共著, ISSN 1745-1329

Recently, there has been an increasing tendency for switching external debts into domestic borrowings in many developing countries. In this paper, we develop a simple general equilibrium model to determine the optimal share for domestic and external government debts in Indonesia. We emphasise the important role of demand in forming the optimal structure of government debts. We found that both domestic and external government debt markets are linked from both the perspectives of demand and supply. In addition, the back testing simulation suggests that the Indonesian government has to reduce the level of its external debt. Through a dynamic recursive simulation, it is suggested that, in the long run, the government must not hold any external debt while the debt-to-GDP ratio is at the 16%-17% level.

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Analysis of credit ratings for small and medium-sized enterprises: Evidence from Asia

Yoshino, N., Taghizadeh-Hesary, F.

Asian Development Review 32 （ 2 ） 18 - 37 2015年

共著, 査読有り

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The sovereign debt crisis: why Greece, but not Japan?

Naoyuki Yoshino, Uwe Vollmer

Asia Europe Journal （Springer Verlag） 12 （ 3 ） 325 - 344 2014年09月

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1612-1031

This paper asks why Japan has not yet suffered from a sovereign debt crisis, although its gross public debt as a percentage of GDP is much higher than in Greece. We use a simple stylized model to explain the occurrence of both a fundamental and a speculative debt crisis. We apply this model to both countries and derive some hypotheses about why investors are still ready to hold Japanese Government Bonds. In particular, we point to the significance of domestic debt holdings, to the central bank’s government debt purchases, to investors’ access to “safe havens,” and to the role of an autonomous monetary policy. We also analyze potential challenges to Japan’s long-term fiscal situation, resulting from its aging population.

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金融経済教育向上の必要性と背景 (特集金融リテラシー : 誰のために向上させるのか)

吉野直行, 青山直子

月刊金融ジャーナル（金融ジャーナル社） 55 （ 9 ） 70 - 73 2014年09月

共著, ISSN 0453-9176

Dynamic Transition of Exchange Rate Regime in China

Naoyuki Yoshino, Sahoko Kaji, Tamon Asonuma

CHINA & WORLD ECONOMY （WILEY-BLACKWELL） 22 （ 3 ） 36 - 55 2014年07月

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1671-2234

The paper considers the optimal transition path for China's exchange rate regime. How can China successfully make the shift from the current dollar peg regime to a more desirable regime, whether a basket peg or a floating regime? To answer this question, we develop a dynamic small open economy general equilibrium model. We construct four transition policies based on a basket peg or a floating regime and compare the welfare gains of these policies relative to maintaining the dollar peg regime. Two main results are derived from the quantitative analysis using Chinese data from 1999Q1 to 2010Q4. First, following a gradual adjustment to a basket peg regime is the most appropriate path for China to take, with minimal welfare losses associated with the shift in the exchange rate regime. Second, a sudden shift to the basket peg is the second best solution, and is superior to a sudden shift to floating because the monetary authority can efficiently determine optimal weights to attach to currencies in the basket to achieve policy goals once they adopt a basket peg regime.

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会長講演最適自己資本比率と社会資本の経済効果

吉野直行

三田学会雑誌（慶應義塾経済学会） 107 （ 2 ） 139 - 156 2014年07月

共著, ISSN 0026-6760

会長講演本稿では, バーゼルの自己資本比率規制は, 国ごとに, その比率を変えることが望ましいことを説明する。その理由としては, 国によって, 銀行の金融市場に占めるシェアも異なり, 銀行行動も異なり, 株価や地価の動きも異なるからである。国を越えて銀行が行動する場合には, 貸出を行う相手国のバーゼル規制に従うことが望ましいことも示される。後半では, インフラ投資の経済効果の実証分析が説明される。インフラ投資には, 直接効果と間接効果が存在し, インフラの整備によって民間企業がその地域に入って来るかどうか, 民間企業の生産性がインフラ整備によって効率化されるかが, 重要な点である。インフラ整備の経済効果が低下しないためには, 資金面で, 民間資金を導入して, インフラの経済効果を高める必要がある。最後に, ふるさと投資ファンドのような民間資金による「ふるさとの投資」を進める方策について説明する。This study explains why it is desirable to change the ratio of the Basel capital adequacy for each country. Some reasons for this are that, depending on the country, the financial market share held by banks, bank behaviors, and share and land prices differ. When banks operate beyond national borders, this study shows that complying with Basel regulations in the country where lending is occurring is desirable. The second half of the study explains the empirical analysis of the economic effects of infrastructure investment. Infrastructure investments have direct and indirect effects, and an important point to note is that depending on the status of development of said infrastructure, it influences the decision of whether private enterprises enter the region and affect the efficiency of their productivity.From a funding aspect, it is necessary to increase the economic effects of infrastructure through the introduction of private funds to avoid a decrease in the economic effects of infrastructure development. Finally, this study discusses the measures for the promotion of Furusato Investments (microinvestments in local enterprises aiming at the development of local economies) by private funds such as the Furusato Investment Fund.

この人に聞く長期の経済前提として幅広く8ケースを設定 : 吉野直行氏(社会保障審議会年金部会・年金財政における経済前提と積立金運用のあり方に関する専門委員会委員長)

吉野直行

週刊社会保障（法研） 68 （ 2772 ） 36 - 37 2014年04月

共著, ISSN 1343-5736

銀行による「ふるさと投資ファンド」組成と地域活性化 (総特集ザ・地域銀行) -- (成長の条件)

吉野直行

月刊金融ジャーナル（金融ジャーナル社） 55 （ 4 ） 8 - 11 2014年04月

共著, ISSN 0453-9176

インフラ投資での信託活用の可能性 : 信託実務、海外の潮流からのアプローチ (信託経済コンファレンス : インフラ事業への信託の活用)

星治, 吉野直行

信託（信託協会）（ 257 ） 71 - 88 2014年02月

共著, ISSN 0386-1368

PPPと信託ビジネス (信託経済コンファレンス : インフラ事業への信託の活用)

吉野直行

信託（信託協会）（ 257 ） 89 - 106 2014年02月

共著, ISSN 0386-1368

Analytical Framework on Credit Risks for Financing SMEs in Asia

Yoshino, N, Taghizadeh-Hesary, F

Asia-Pacific Development Journal 21 （ 2 ） 1 - 21 2014年

共著, 査読有り

Response of Stock Markets to Monetary Policy: The Tehran Stock Market Perspective

Yoshino, N., Taghizadeh-Hesary, F., Hassanzadeh, A., Prasetyo, A.D.

Journal of Comparative Asian Development 13 （ 3 ） 517 - 545 2014年

共著, 査読有り

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Monetary policy and oil price fluctuations following the subprime mortgage crisis

Yoshino, N., Taghizadeh-Hesary, F.

International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance 7 （ 3 ） 157 - 174 2014年

共著, 査読有り

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International comparison of bubbles and bubble indicators

Naoyuki Yoshino, Tomoya Nakamura, Yoshitaka Sakai

AI and Society （Springer-Verlag London Ltd） 29 （ 3 ） 427 - 434 2014年

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1435-5655

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the financial turmoil of the US subprime loan crisis of mid-Noughties and to compare it with the Japanese asset bubble of late 1980s. While examining the two crises, it compares the monetary policies of both countries, focusing on the excess liquidity and expansion of bank loans that were seen. This paper develops several bubble indicators, including the ratio of real estate loans to total loans, the loan-to-GDP ratio, and housing affordability. In order to develop these indicators, it is necessary to compare banking behavior in both Japan and the United States, as banks in both countries were making loans beyond the point of profit maximization. Property prices and monetary policy in both countries influenced banking behavior significantly. The bubble indicators developed in this paper can be used as early warning indicators for future bubbles. © 2013 Springer-Verlag London.

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講演録ファイナンス理論と実践 : 投資信託にスターは存在するか,資産運用における行動ファイナンスの限界,等

吉野直行

ファイナンシャル・プランニング研究（日本FP学会） 14 37 - 43 2014年

共著, ISSN 1346-5112

An Estimation of the Impact of oil Shocks on Clude Oil Exporting Economics and Their Trade partners

吉野直行

Frontiers of economics in China 8 （ 4 ） 571-591 2013年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

Hometown investment trust funds: A stable way to supply risk capital

Naoyuki Yoshino, Sahoko Kaji

Hometown Investment Trust Funds: A Stable Way to Supply Risk Capital （Springer Japan） 9784431543091 1 - 98 2013年11月

共著

This book records the first success stories of a new form of financial intermediation, the hometown investment fund, that has become a national strategy in Japan, partly to meet the need to finance small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) after the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. The hometown investment fund has three main advantages. First, it contributes to financial market stability by lowering information asymmetry. Individual households and firms have direct access to information about the borrowing firms, mainly SMEs, that they lend to. Second, it is a stable source of risk capital. The fund is project driven. Firms and households decide to invest by getting to know the borrowers and their projects. In this way the fund distributes risk but not so that it renders risk intractable, which was the problem with the originate and distribute model. Third, it contributes to economic recovery by connecting firms and households with SMEs that are worthy of their support. It also creates employment opportunities, at the SMEs as well as for the pool of retirees from financial institutions who can help assess the projects. Introduction of the hometown investment fund has huge global implications. The world is seeking a method of financial intermediation that minimizes information asymmetry, distributes risk without making it opaque, and contributes to economic recovery. Funds similar to Japan's hometown investment fund can succeed in all three ways. After all, the majority of the world's businesses are SMEs. The first chapter explains the theory behind this method, and the following chapters relate success stories from Japan and other parts of Asia. This book should encourage policymakers, economists, lenders, and borrowers, especially in developing countries, to adopt this new form of financial intermediation, thus contributing to global economic stability.

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The background of hometown investment trust funds

Naoyuki Yoshino

Hometown Investment Trust Funds: A Stable Way to Supply Risk Capital （Springer Japan） 9784431543091 1 - 13 2013年11月

共著

This chapter will, first of all, describe how the flow of funds in Japan functions. Second, it explains how Hometown Investment Trust (HIT) funds can fund businesses that are likely to grow in future and are capable of making a social contribution, but entail risks. HIT funds have recently begun to grow, and we will make the case for the urgent need to foster such funds. There are two main reasons why this is important. First, as BIS capital adequacy requirements become more stringent worldwide, banks find it more difficult to provide funding to high-risk businesses and projects. Second, Japan's public finances are in dire straits. Local businesses outside the main urban centres used to be supported by subsidies from the centre to local regions in the form of national tax revenues allocated to local governments, national treasury disbursements, and government loan and investment funds. Under today's expanding fiscal deficits, however, issuance of deficit-financing bonds to provide for local regions has reached a limit, and the need to use private-sector funds to finance regional projects has become urgent (Yoshino and Mizoguchi, Financial policy review, Ministry of Finance of Japan, 2013
McNelis and Yoshino, Advs Complex Syst 15:1250057, 2012). The second half of this chapter will describe the flow of funds in Asia. Chapter 5 of this book will discuss concrete examples in Asia, where the financial systems also rely heavily on indirect financing via banks, so that the supply of funds to risk sectors is very likely to taper off. It is necessary to create mechanisms to supply various kinds of funds, including HIT funds that finance new corporations, businesses and environmental programs.

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持続可能な財政政策ルールの導出 : 金融機関等による国債購入サイドの要因を考慮 (特集日本国債のゆくえ)

吉野直行, 溝口哲郎

経済セミナー = The keizai seminar （日本評論社）（ 674 ） 37 - 44 2013年10月

共著, ISSN 0386-992X

Monetary Policies and Oil Price Determination: An Empirical Analysis

吉野直行

OPEC ENERGY REVIEW, Volume 37, Issue 3 (forthcoming 2013) 37 （ 3 ） 1 - 20 2013年09月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り

日本経済を取り巻く金融環境の変化と景気回復のための財政金融政策

吉野直行

三田評論（慶応義塾）（ 7月） 37 - 53 2013年07月

研究論文（大学，研究機関等紀要）, 単著, ISSN 1343-618X

超高齢化社会の到来と年金制度（１）

吉野直行

信託（ 254 ） 85-99 - 99 2013年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

日本経済の資金の流れの変化個人・家計を取り巻く日本経済の環境変化　－資金の流れから見る家計を取り巻く日本経済

吉野直行貝塚　啓明伊藤　宏一

実学としてのパーソナルファイナンス 3-27 - 27 2013年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

日本の金融の未来を切り開くための施策は何か

吉野直行・大崎貞和

金融ITフォーカス 100 4-9 - 9 2013年02月

研究論文（その他学術会議資料等）, 単著

Change in the Flow of Funds and Fiscal Rules Needed for Fiscal Stabilization

吉野直行

Ministry of Finance, Japan （Ministry of Finance, Japan） 9 （ 1 ） 51-69 - 69 2013年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り

地元への資金還元「ふるさと投資ファンド」

吉野直行

季刊　個人金融（郵便貯金振興会） 8 （春） 2-8 - 8 2013年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, ISSN 1881-4778

Counter-cyclical Buffer of the basel Capital requirement and Its Empirical Analysis

吉野直行

IMF (International Monetary Fund) （IMF (International Monetary Fund)）（ 6 ） 417-429 - 429 2013年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り

協会設立から5年。活動を振り返って。

吉野直行

JFSA （日本貸金業協会） 14 （ 14 ） 4-7 - 7 2013年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

An estimation of the impact of oil shocks on crude oil exporting economies and their trade partners

Farhad Taghizadeh Hesary, Naoyuki Yoshino, Ghahraman Abdoli, Asadollah Farzinvash

Frontiers of Economics in China 8 （ 4 ） 571 - 591 2013年

共著, ISSN 1673-3444

This research evaluates the impact of oil price shocks on oil producing and consuming economies; we used a simultaneous equation framework for different countries with business relations. As expected, we found that oil-producers (here, Iran and Russia) benefit from oil price shocks. However contrary to previous findings, they also benefit from the indirect effect through their trade partners. For oil-consuming economies, the effects are more diverse. In some countries, output falls in response to an oil price shock, while some others seem to be relatively immune. Generally, those countries which trade more with oil producers gain indirect benefits via higher demand from oil-producers. For instance, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, the US, the UK, and China get a negative direct effect and positive indirect effect from oil producing countries. This is exactly the result that we anticipated. India has both negative effects directly and indirectly and seems to suffer more in a positive oil price shock. For Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey the results are reversed. They benefit from an oil shock directly and indirectly. © 2013 by Koninklijke Brill NV, Leiden.

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中小企業融資、信用保証、東日本大震災後の「ふるさと投資ファンド」について (特集第25回ACSIC会議) -- (基調講演)

吉野直行

信用保証（全国信用保証協会連合会）（ 124 ） 7 - 14 2013年

共著, ISSN 1343-6384

Identification of Systemically Important Financial Institutions and Implications for Financial Architecture in Korea

Suk Hyun, Naoyuki Yoshino

Global Economic Review 42 （ 4 ） 382 - 395 2013年

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1226-508X

The global financial crisis has put a spotlight on concerns about financial system stability. Currently, there are discussions about how to identify systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) and how to strengthen regulatory measures for these SIFIs. Against the backdrop, this study aims to identify SIFIs by measuring inter-sectoral financial transactions with the flow of funds (FOF) account as a measure of interconnectedness. The empirical results show that banks or insurance companies can be SIFIs only in terms of size. However, foreign banks' branches (FBB) and credit-specialized institutions can also be SIFIs in terms of interconnectedness. Especially the systemic importance of FBB in Korea has increased considering the fact that financial crisis in Korea resulted mainly from foreign exchange market. Therefore, more specific discussions and regulatory measures for SIFIs will be required from the perspective of capital market development and Korea's situation. © 2013 © 2013 Institute of East and West Studies, Yonsei University, Seoul.

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Comment on ”Estimating Non-Keynesian Effects for Japan"

吉野直行

Asian Economic policy Review 7 （ 2 ） 246-247 2012年12月

研究論文（研究会，シンポジウム資料等）, 単著

Changes in the Flow of Funds and the Fiscal Rules Needed for Fiscal Stabilization

吉野直行

Publie Policy Review, Ministry of Finance, Japan 8 （ 6 ） 2012年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

ユーロ危機と財政ルールの構築　－ギリシャと日本の比較

吉野直行

世界経済　時報（ 196 ） 1-32 2012年11月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Comments

Naoyuki Yoshino

Asian Economic Papers 11 110 - 111 2012年10月

共著, ISSN 1535-3516

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MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY UNDER HIGH ACCUMULATION OF GOVERNMENT DEBT: LESSONS FROM JAPAN

Paul D. McNelis, Naoyuki Yoshino

ADVANCES IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS （WORLD SCIENTIFIC PUBL CO PTE LTD） 15 2012年09月

共著, ISSN 0219-5259

This paper applies Bayesian estimation to an open-economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model of Japan, to assess the effects of expanding government debt on interest rates, real exchange rate dynamics, and real sector performance. We find that the emergence of even a small risk premium on government debt will trigger considerable instability in the real and nominal variables. We show that a switch to an exchange-rate rule for monetary policy would considerably moderate the instability induced by a rising risk premium.

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預金保険制度の今後の方向性を考える

吉野直行

週刊金融財政事情（金融財政事情研究会） 63 （ 20 ） 39-43 - 43 2012年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, ISSN 1345-3033

長期資金との提供と年金基金運用

吉野直行

企業年金（企業年金連合会） 31 （ 392 ） 22-25 - 25 2012年04月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, ISSN 0286-6471

Macroeconomic for MBAｓ　and Masters of Finance

吉野直行

フィナンシャル・プランニング研究（ 11 ） 50-51 - 51 2012年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

貸金業の問題の全体像と今後に向けた課題

吉野直行

生活協同組合研究（生協総合研究所）（ 434 ） 48-57 - 57 2012年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, ISSN 0911-1042

資金の流れの変化と財政安定化のための財政ルール

吉野直行

フィナンシャル・レビュー（財務省財務総合政策研究所） 2012 （ 109 ） 3-15 - 15 2012年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, ISSN 0912-5892

日本経済の復興と信託の活用

吉野直行

信託（ 249 ） 93-108 - 108 2012年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

複数の経済前提をもとに年金財政の将来像を提示

吉野直行

週刊社会保障（法研） 66 （ 2663 ） 62-63 - 63 2012年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, ISSN 1343-5736

Global imbalances and the deveropment of capital flows among Asian countries

吉野直行

OECD Journal Financial Market Trends 81-112 - 112 2012年01月

研究論文（研究会，シンポジウム資料等）, 単著

貸金業を取り巻く環境変化と成長戦略の早急な実施

吉野直行

クレジットエイジ（JCFA広報部編） 33 （ 380 ） 10-15 - 15 2012年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

New Basel Capital Requirement and SME Financing

吉野直行

APEC,SME Crisis Management Center,SCMC,APEC,SME Economic Crisis Monitor （ 18 ） 20-21 - 21 2012年01月

研究論文（その他学術会議資料等）, 単著

政策金融の現在・過去・未来

吉野直行

住宅金融 04 （ 24 ） 8-22 - 22 2012年

研究論文（その他学術会議資料等）, 共著

Choices of optimal monetary Policy Instruments Under the Floating and the Basket-Peg Regimes

吉野直行

Singapore Economic Review （WORLD SCIENTIFIC PUBL CO PTE LTD） 57 （ 4 ） 2012年

研究論文（研究会，シンポジウム資料等）, 単著, ISSN 0217-5908

This paper determines whether adopting the basket-peg rather than the floating regime is optimal for emerging market countries. Under the basket-peg regime, there is a trade-off between practical usefulness and welfare losses associated with capital movements across countries. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for small open economies to derive a simple basket weight rule. Although this is suboptimal, we find it practical and easy to implement. With calibration using Singaporean and Thai data for 1997Q3-2006Q2 and comparison among cumulative losses associated with the policy instrument rules, we show that a commitment to the basket weight rule is superior to other instrument rules under the floating regime for small, open emerging market countries like Singapore and Thailand.

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macroeconomic Volatility Under High Accumulation of Goverment Debt:lessons from Japan.

吉野直行

Advances in Complex Systems 2012年

研究論文（研究会，シンポジウム資料等）, 単著

ユーロ危機と財政ルールの構築－ギリシャと日本の比較

吉野直行

世界経済時報（世界経済調査会）（ 196 ） 1 - 32 2012年

共著

Recent Excessive Exchange Rate Appreciation of Japanese Yen

吉野直行

APEC,SME Crisis Management Center,SCMC,APEC,SME Economic Crisis Monitor （ 17 ） 5-6 - 6 2011年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

日本の大学院教育--アメリカとの比較 (特集経済学の学び方・教え方)

吉野直行

経済セミナー（日本評論社）（ 657 ） 50 - 53 2011年12月

共著, ISSN 0386-992X

Internationalization of Chinese Yuan and Euro Issues

吉野直行

APEC,SME Crisis Management Center,SCMC,APEC,SME Economic Crisis Monitor （ 16 ） 5-6 - 6 2011年11月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

民間資金の誘導による公的資本形成

吉野直行

Pacifica （ 1 ） 2-3 - 3 2011年11月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

深刻な財政状況下、レベニュー債券活用の必要性高まる (特集揺れる三セクのファイナンス)

吉野直行

金融財政事情（金融財政事情研究会） 62 （ 37 ） 19 - 23 2011年10月

共著, ISSN 1345-3033

Euro's Stuggle and Its Lessons to Asian Region

吉野直行

APEC,SME Crisis Management Center,SCMC,APEC,SME Economic Crisis Monitor （ 15 ） 5-6 - 6 2011年10月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

個人向け投資サービスと行動ファイナンスを巡る研究会

吉野直行

行動ファイナンスから読み解く個人向け投資サービスのあり方（野村資本市場研究所） 2011年09月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

Downgrading of US Goverment Securities:Impact on Northeast Asia and the Creation of Fiscal Discipline

吉野直行

APEC,SME Crisis Management Center,SCMC,APEC,SME Economic Crisis Monitor （ 14 ） 2011年09月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Excess Expansion of China's Realestate Market

吉野直行

APEC,SME Crisis Management Center,SCMC,APEC,SME Economic Crisis Monitor （ 13 ） 5-6 - 6 2011年08月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Growing Budget Deficits and Sustainability:Why is japan still sustainable?

吉野直行

APEC,SME Crisis Management Center,SCMC,APEC,SME Economic Crisis Monitor （ 12 ） 5-6 - 6 2011年07月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

ピンチは先駆者となるためのチャンス

吉野直行

経済の論点最終回, PHP Business Review （PHP Business Review）（ 50 ） 64-65 - 65 2011年07月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

China,s inflation-Causes and possible remedies

吉野直行

APEC,SME Crisis Management Center,SCMC,APEC,SME Economic Crisis Monitor （ 11 ） 5-7 - 7 2011年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Impact of Japan,s earthquakes/Tunami disaster on Asian Economy and the lessons to be learned

吉野直行

APEC,SME Crisis Management Center,SCMC,APEC,SME Economic Crisis Monitor （ 10 ） 5-7 - 7 2011年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

地震・津波を乗り越えるにはー日本経済の再生のための1シナリオ

吉野直行

経済の論点19, PHP Business Review （ 49 ） 40-41 - 41 2011年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

特別インタビュー吉野直行金融審議会会長に聞く

吉野直行

月刊金融ジャ-ナル（金融ジャ-ナル社） 52 （ 5 ） 54 - 57 2011年05月

共著, ISSN 0453-9176

アジアを取り巻く金融投資の変化とコーポレート・ガヴァナンス (経済・金融のグローバル・ガヴァナンス)

吉野直行

国際問題 = International affairs （日本国際問題研究所）（ 601 ） 12 - 22 2011年05月

共著, ISSN 0452-3377

埋蔵金の誤解と国債の格下げ

吉野直行

経済の論点18, PHP Business Review （PHP研究所）（ 48 ） 58-60 - 60 2011年03月

研究論文（その他学術会議資料等）, 単著

G20での議論ーグローバル不均衡

吉野直行

経済の論点17, PHP Business Review （ 44 ） 46-48 - 48 2011年01月

研究論文（その他学術会議資料等）, 単著

Macroeconomics for MBAs and Masters Finance

吉野直行

フィナンシャル・プランニング研究（日本FP協会）（ 11 ） 2011年

研究論文（研究会，シンポジウム資料等）, 単著

Pro-cyclicality of the Basel Capital Requirement Ratio and Its impact on Banks

吉野直行

Asian Economic Papers （MIT Press） 10 （ 2 ） 22 - 36 2011年

研究論文（研究会，シンポジウム資料等）, 単著, ISSN 1535-3516

This paper proposes replacing the present Basel capital requirement with a new counter-cyclical measure. Optimally, (i) the Basel capital requirement ratio should depend on various economic factors such as the cyclical stage of GDP, credit growth, stock prices, interest rates, and land prices-hence, avoiding the expansion of bank loans during a boom period and a credit crunch during a sluggish period
(ii) the Basel minimum capital requirement rule should be different from country to country since the economic structures and the behavior of banks are different
and (iii) crossborder bank operation should follow the minimum capital requirement ratio where bank lending activities occur rather than the origin of the source of funds. © 2011 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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個人向け投資サービスと行動ファイナンスを巡る研究会

吉野直行

行動ファイナンスから読み解く個人向け投資サービスのあり方野村資本市場研究所 2011年

共著

座談会住宅市場と消費税

井堀利宏, 矢野龍, 吉野直行

住宅土地経済（日本住宅総合センター）（ 79 ） 2 - 16 2011年

共著, ISSN 0917-3498

Global financial crisis and policy issues in Japan

Naoyuki Yoshino, Naoyuki Yoshino

Managing Economic Crisis in East Asia 190 - 205 2010年12月

共著

The role of public works in the political business cycle and the instability of the budget deficits in Japan

Naoyuki Yoshino, Tetsuro Mizoguchi

Asian Economic Papers 9 （ 1 ） 94 - 112 2010年12月

共著, ISSN 1535-3516

This paper discusses the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) ability to maintain a majority of seats in the Diet after WWII by focusing on the role of public investment. The paper discusses three periods, namely, (i) the high-growth period (1950 to 1985), (ii) the asset bubble period (1986 to 1990), and (iii) the period of economic downturn after the bubble (post 1990). During the highgrowth period, government investment had a strong positive output effect and it increased the tax revenue in the medium and long run. The high rate of private capital formation boosted growth and tax revenue even further. During the asset bubble period of the late 1980s, Japanese tax revenue increased due to high asset and property prices, and growth stayed high because of strong aggregate demand. The Japanese economy experienced slower growth after the asset bubble burst. The LDP continued its high-spending policy by issuing Japanese government bonds (JGB) to finance the deficits but has not been able to revive growth to previous levels. Accumulated government debt now amounts to 180 percent of GDP and it will be difficult to issue any more JGB. Fiscal policy in post-bubble Japan no longer fulfilled the stability conditions that were identified by Blinder and Solow (1974). © 2010 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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真の円高リスク

吉野直行

経済の論点16, PHP Business Review （ 46 ） 48-49 - 49 2010年11月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

金融政策を決定するのには多くの要素を盛り込む必要がある

吉野直行

経済の論点15, PHP Business Review （ 45 ） 62-63 - 63 2010年09月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

年金破綻と消費税アップのどちらを選択するか

吉野直行

経済の論点14, PHP Business Review （ 44 ） 62-63 - 63 2010年07月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

政治空白が日本経済を後退させる

吉野直行

経済の論点12, PHP Business Review （ 42 ） 80-81 - 81 2010年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

地域活性化としての公共・都市政策とPPP（Public Private Partnership）に関する国際ワークショップ

吉野直行

Newsletter 市場の高質化と市場インフラの総合的設計（慶應義塾大学大学院経済学研究科・商学研究科/京都大学経済研究所連携グローバルCOEプログラム）（ 6 ） 5 2010年03月

研究論文（研究会，シンポジウム資料等）, 共著

日本経済回復のための信託手法の適用可能性 (信託経済コンファレンス--産業・社会構造の変化に対応しうる信託)

吉野直行

信託（信託協会）（ 241 ） 51 - 64 2010年02月

共著, ISSN 0386-1368

BISIIIに見る国際基準決定方法の問題

吉野直行

経済の論点11, PHP Business Review （ 41 ） 62-63 - 63 2010年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Activity Report

吉野直行

Newsletter 市場の高質化と市場インフラの総合的設計（慶應義塾大学大学院経済学研究科・商学研究科/京都大学経済研究所連携グローバルCOEプログラム） 9 4-5 - 5 2010年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

法律を陳腐化させない機動性

吉野直行

経済の論点13, PHP Business Review （ 43 ） 62-63 - 63 2010年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

講演録日本経済の景気回復とFPの役割

吉野直行

ファイナンシャル・プランニング研究（日本FP学会） 10 102 - 109 2010年

共著, ISSN 1346-5112

経済政策面から見た自民党敗北

吉野直行

経済の論点10, PHP Business Review （PHP総合研究所）（ 40 ） 44-46 - 46 2009年11月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

すべての基本は教育にあり

吉野直行

経済の論点9, PHP Business Review （ 39 ） 46-47 - 47 2009年09月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

On the economic interdependence between China and Japan: Challenges and possibilities

Claes G. Alvstam, Patrik Strom, Naoyuki Yoshino

ASIA PACIFIC VIEWPOINT （WILEY-BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, INC） 50 （ 2 ） 198 - 214 2009年08月

共著, ISSN 1360-7456

The paper presents an analysis of the economic relationship between the two most important economies in Asia. Over the last decades, the Chinese and Japanese economies have become more economically interdependent, a development which will, in the long run, impact the countries' political relationship. The paper seeks to answer the question: How can China and Japan gain from the current economic situation, further enhance their relationship and increase their synergies for regional economic development? Data on trade and Foreign Direct Investment are used in combination with primary data from interviews with Japanese and Chinese companies on how they perceive the current business situation and future potential. The result of the data analysis shows that the countries have much to gain from their economic interdependence. The firms see great potential in their respective markets but are concerned about political turbulence. Three possible scenarios for the future economic relationship are presented, including fierce competition on all markets and a leveraging of resources for mutual development between Chinese and Japanese companies.

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日本を甦らせるために必要な官僚パワー

吉野直行

経済の論点8, PHP Business Review （ 37 ） 64-66 - 66 2009年07月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

レベニューボンドの効果を高めるインセンティブメカニズム

吉野直行

経済の論点７, PHP Business Review （ 37 ） 64-66 - 66 2009年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

The case for the Private Sector

吉野直行

The Japan Journal 13-16 - 16 2009年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

中国語「日本未死！」

吉野直行

QUAM MONEY 044 48-52 - 52 2009年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

中小企業への円滑な金融を図るデータベース化

吉野直行

経済の論点6, PHP Business Review （ 36 ） 64-65 - 65 2009年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

金融危機対応の国家間相違点

吉野直行

経済の論点5, PHP Business Review （ 35 ） 52-54 - 54 2009年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

世界金融危機下における日本の景気対策―日中の市場の質に関する比較会議

吉野直行

Newsletter 市場の高質化と市場インフラの総合的設計（慶應義塾大学大学院経済学研究科・商学研究科/京都大学経済研究所連携グローバルCOEプログラム）（ 4 ） 6 2009年

研究論文（研究会，シンポジウム資料等）, 単著

Impact of World Financial Crisis on Japanese Economy (in Japanese)

吉野直行

RIETI Journal Research Institute of Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry （Research Institute of Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry） 2009年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Japanese financial service firms in East and Southeast Asia: Location pattern and strategic response in changing economic conditions

Strom Patrik and Naoyuki Yoshino

Asian Business and Management （Macmillan） 8 （ 1 ） 33-58 - 58 2009年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, ISSN 1472-4782

This paper explores the internationalization and location pattern of Japanese financial service firms in East and Southeast Asia. During a period of prolonged economic problems in the Japanese domestic market and a turbulent period in Asia because of the Asian financial crisis of 1997, the situation for these service providers has changed drastically. The research question that the paper seeks to answer is: what are the spatial patterns and underlying reasons for strategic location response in Japanese financial service providers in East and Southeast Asia in the post-Asian financial crisis period? The paper puts forward a set of potential responses that these firms can pursue to strengthen their regional competitiveness.

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Japan's Bubble Economy and Its Implications to China

吉野直行

International Economic Review Chinese Academy of Social Sciences （Chinese Academy of Social Sciences）（ 3 ） 2009年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Strengthening Payment Systems in Asia, Symposium "Subprime Loan Problem and Raising Financial Market Quality"

吉野直行

Newsletter 市場の高質化と市場インフラの総合的設計（慶應義塾大学大学院経済学研究科・商学研究科/京都大学経済研究所連携グローバルCOEプログラム）（ 2 ） 6-7 - 7 2009年

研究論文（研究会，シンポジウム資料等）, 共著

基調講演信託と金融--信託・証券化と信託業の将来 (信託経済研究会20周年記念シンポジウム信託と経済社会--信託経済研究20年の回顧と展望)

吉野直行

信託（信託協会）（ 237 ） 7 - 20 2009年

共著, ISSN 0386-1368

日本の金融技術を伸ばすとき

吉野直行

経済の論点4, PHP Business Review （ 34 ） 60-61 - 61 2008年11月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

長期的資産運用状況からわかること

吉野直行

経済の論点3, PHP Business Review （PHP総合研究所）（ 33 ） 59-61 - 61 2008年09月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

海外からの投資の是非

吉野直行

経済の論点2, PHP Business Review （PHP総合研究所）（ 32 ） 62-64 - 64 2008年07月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

経済の論点(新連載・1)空港や電力の公益性を唱える前に、認識すべきことがある

吉野直行

PHPビジネスレビュー（PHP総合研究所）（ 49 ） 56 - 59 2008年05月

共著

パネルディスカッション「金融経済教育をいかに充実していくか」 (シンポジウム「金融経済教育をいかに充実していくか」の概要)

吉野弘一, 谷内祥訓, 吉野直行

金融（全国銀行協会）（ 733 ） 22 - 26 2008年04月

共著, ISSN 0287-9964

Japanese Monetary Policy Reaction Function and Time-Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Monte Carlo Particle Filtering Approach

吉野直行

FSAリサーチ・レビュー2007 （金融庁金融研究研修センター） 2007 103-140 - 140 2008年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

企業の資金調達の変化

吉野直行、渡辺善次

フィナンシャル・レビュー（財務省財務総合政策研究所） 2008 （ 88 ） 19-38 - 38 2008年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, ISSN 0912-5892

構造改革進捗レポート(24・最終回)金融サービス業の国際競争力と金融人材の育成

山本惠朗, 吉野直行

PHPビジネスレビュー（PHP総合研究所）（ 48 ） 53 - 56 2008年03月

共著

「団塊の世代」が少子高齢化社会において果すべき役割と信託(1)

吉野直行

信託（信託経済研究会、信託協会）（ 233 ） 42-60 - 60 2008年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

健全な債権化によるレベニューボンド導入の重要性

吉野直行

構造改革進捗レポート23, PHP Business Review （PHP総合研究所）（ 29 ） 54-56 - 56 2008年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

空港や電力の公共性を唱える前に認識すべきことがある

吉野直行

経済の論点1, PHP Business Review （ 31 ） 58-61 - 61 2008年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

グローバルCOEの概要

吉野直行

Newsletter 市場の高質化と市場インフラの総合的設計（慶應義塾大学大学院経済学研究科・商学研究科/京都大学経済研究所連携グローバルCOEプログラム）（ 1 ） 3-7 - 7 2008年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

「団塊の世代」が少子高齢化社会において果すべき役割と信託--ファンド形式の信託運用を中心として (信託経済コンファレンス)

吉野直行

信託（信託協会）（ 233 ） 42 - 60 2008年

共著, ISSN 0386-1368

講演録金融専門人材の育成について

吉野直行

ファイナンシャル・プランニング研究（日本FP学会） 8 43 - 48 2008年

共著, ISSN 1346-5112

本当に教えられる人とは

吉野直行

構造改革進捗レポート22, PHP Business Review （PHP総合研究所）（ 28 ） 55-57 - 57 2007年11月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

省庁内研究所の役割と課題

吉野直行

構造改革進捗レポート21, PHP Business Review （ 27 ） 56-57 - 57 2007年09月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

歳入をベースとした予算づくりへの発想の転換

吉野直行

構造改革進捗レポート20, PHP Business Review （PHP総合研究所）（ 26 ） 39-42 - 42 2007年07月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Enhancing Portfolio Capital Flows in Asia Asian Economy, Asian Bond Market

吉野直行

慶応義塾大学出版会（慶応義塾大学出版会） 1-7, 111-132 2007年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

「生活苦」「浪費」の借手を貸金業市場に向かわせないことが必要 (特集消費者金融改革残された課題)

吉野直行

金融財政事情（金融財政事情研究会） 58 （ 21 ） 15 - 19 2007年06月

共著, ISSN 1345-3033

「日本の政府債務・展望」に対するコメント

吉野直行

日本財政破綻回避への戦略（日本経済新聞出版社） 31-35 2007年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

貸金業の規制等に関する法律の改正と貸金業を取り巻く環境変化

吉野直行

法律のひろば（ぎょうせい） 60 （ 4 ） 4-9 - 9 2007年04月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, ISSN 0916-9806

ノンバンクの全体像をとらえながら市町村ぐるみでせいど改革を

吉野直行

時の動き（ 1105 ） 19 2007年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

今後の日本と中国の中小企業金融のありかたについて

吉野直行・辛飛

構造改革進捗レポート18, PHP Business Review （PHP総合研究所）（ 24 ） 57-61 - 61 2007年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

社会保障制度改革と信託(1)

吉野直行

信託（社団法人　信託協会）（ 229 ） 367-375 - 375 2007年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

アジアの資本移動の変化に関するクラスター分析アジア域内の証券投資活性化に向けて

吉野直行、飯島高雄

FSAリサーチ・レビュー2006 （金融庁金融研究研修センター） 1-3、105-141 2007年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

教育の破綻状況は、英語教育を見るとよくわかる

吉野直行

構造改革進捗レポート17, PHP Business Review （PHP総合研究所）（ 23 ） 49-52 - 52 2007年01月

研究論文（その他学術会議資料等）, 単著

教育にも　Plan Do Check Actionー「合成の誤謬」に陥らないために

吉野直行

構造改革進捗レポート19, PHP Business Review （PHP総合研究所）（ 25 ） 58-60 - 60 2007年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Infrastructure Development in the Pacific Region--Japan

吉野直行

Infrastructure Development in the Pacific Region /Edited by Akira Kohsaka Routledge （Routledge） 112-134 - 134 2007年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

Financial Conglomeration in the East Asian Region: Recent Trends and Implications for Regional Financial Market Development

吉野直行

Daiwa Institute of Research (ASEAN secretariat) 2007年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

「日本の政府債務・展望」に対するコメント

吉野直行

日本財政破綻回避への戦略日本経済新聞出版社 31 - 35 2007年

共著

社会保障制度改革と信託 (信託経済コンファレンス--人口減少社会における社会保障制度と信託)

吉野直行

信託（信託協会）（ 229 ） 367 - 375 2007年

共著, ISSN 0386-1368

The Small Business Financing and the Development of the Bond Market in Asia

吉野直行

Emerging Financial Risks in East Asia KIEP (Korea Institute of Economic Policy) （KIEP (Korea Institute of Economic Policy)） 167-191 - 191 2006年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

Japan

Akira Kohsaka, Naoyuki Yoshino, Masaki Nakahigashi

Infrastructure Development in the Pacific Region （Routledge Taylor & Francis Group） 112 - 134 2006年12月

共著

Access to Document (DOI)

高齢化と透明な金融市場

吉野直行

人口減少社会における社会保障制度と信託（信託経済研究会） 117-147 - 147 2006年11月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

構造改革進捗レポート(16)景気回復後の課題は「教育」

吉野直行

PHPビジネスレビュー（PHP総合研究所）（ 40 ） 53 - 55 2006年11月

共著

構造改革進捗レポート(15)東アジアのプロダクション・ネットワーク化

吉野直行

PHPビジネスレビュー（PHP総合研究所）（ 39 ） 40 - 42 2006年09月

共著

日本経済と中小企業政策金融

吉野直行

中小企業金融と日本経済（慶応義塾大学出版会） 35-69 - 69 2006年08月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Results of Quantitative Analysis of Deflationary Factors

吉野直行

Keio University Press （Keio University Press） 199-210 - 210 2006年07月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Global Inbalances: Japan's Experiences

吉野直行

European and Asian Perspectives on Global Imbalances A conference organized by the Asia-Europe Economic Forum 2006年07月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

貸金業制度を考える-金利問題ばかりをとりあげ、貸金業市場全体を見て議論しないと、市場にさまざまな歪みが生じてしまう

吉野直行

CREDIT AGE JCFA （JCFA）（ 319 ） 10-13 - 13 2006年07月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

消費者金融を巡る環境変化と今後のノンバンク

吉野直行

学士会会報（学士会） 2006 （ 4 ） 29 - 33 2006年07月

共著

巻頭随想-アジア債券市場育成のためのステップ

吉野直行

地方債月報（財団法人地方債協会）（ 323 ） 2-3 - 3 2006年06月

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構造改革進捗レポート(13)道州制導入などの新政策と並行してなすべきこと

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PHPビジネスレビュー（PHP総合研究所）（ 37 ） 44 - 47 2006年05月

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The Research Project: Institutional Arrangements and Regulations Surrounding Cross-border Capital Flows in ASEAN+3 Economies

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Daiwa Institute of Research(ASEAN secretariat) 2006年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

市場型間接金融と信託-公共サービスの質の向上レベニューボンドの導入-

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信託（社団法人　信託協会）（ 2006-Ⅰ ） 59-66 - 66 2006年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

日本の金融機関はなぜ弱いのか

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構造改革進捗レポート11, PHP Business Review （ 17 ） 38-40 - 40 2006年01月

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政策金融改革と農林漁業金融

吉野直行

公庫月報（農林漁業金融公庫） 661 28 2005年12月

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発刊にあたって

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FSAリサーチ・レビュー　2005 （金融庁金融研究研修センター） 1-2 - 2 2005年12月

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わが国における住宅金融システムの変革

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「住宅金融革命の進行」〜住宅金融公庫の廃止と住宅ローンの動向〜（財団法人　住宅産業研修財団）（ 153 ） 3-12 - 12 2005年11月

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リバースモーゲージと流動化

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リバースモーゲージと信託（信託経済研究会） 148-167 - 167 2005年11月

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The Optimal Exchange Rate System in a Model of Two Countries with the Rest of the World --- A Comparative Analysis of the Fixed Exchange Rate, Basket-Peg and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes

吉野直行, 嘉治佐保子, 阿曽沼多聞

Keio Economic Studies （慶應義塾大学） XLI （ 2 ） 25-76 - 75 2005年11月

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構造改革進捗レポート(10)アジア金融体制の確立のためには、強い政治面でのリーダーシップ発揮が重要

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PHPビジネスレビュー（PHP総合研究所）（ 34 ） 30 - 32 2005年11月

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東京証券取引所初代会長に就任

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三田評論（慶応義塾）（ 1083 ） 52-57 - 57 2005年10月

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インセンティブ・メカニズムが働く構造へ

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NIRA政策研究（総合研究開発機構） 18 （ 9 ） 2005年10月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

"Promotiong portfolio capital flows in East Asia" "Enhancing portfolio capital flows in Asia"

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THIRD EAST ASIA CONGRESS 2005年09月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

リスクのある企業への資金援助をどうする?リレーションシップ金融と地域経済の再生

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構造改革進捗レポート9, PHP Business Review （ 15 ） 46-48 - 48 2005年09月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

中小企業金融公庫総合研究所「欧米主要国の中小企業向け政策金融」

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中小企業総合研究（中小企業金融公庫　総合研究所） 86-87 - 87 2005年08月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

「点」から「面」に広げる努力とともに、インフラづくり、中小企業支援にアジア債券市場の活用を

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国際協力銀行（国際協力銀行）（ 15 ） 9 2005年08月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

日本の金融資本市場と金融サービス産業の国際競争力強化への提言

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包括的・横断的市場法制のグランドデザイン　2 （総合研究開発機構） 9-17 - 17 2005年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

新信託型リバースモーゲージ -リバースモーゲージと流動化-

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信託（社団法人　信託協会） 2005-Ⅱ 37-46 - 46 2005年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

パネルディスカッション「低金利時代　暮らしを守る金融イノベーション」

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包括的・横断的市場法制のグランドデザイン　1 （総合研究開発機構） 325-347 - 347 2005年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

民間補完の鉄則を守った政府系金融機関の改革を

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金融ビジネス（東洋経済新報社）（ 242 ） 92-95 - 95 2005年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

会計基準は一つか　-企業競争力の視点でも見直しを

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旬刊　経理情報（ 1079 ） 1 2005年04月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

住宅金融の将来像を展望する

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（社）不動産協会広報誌＜季刊＞（（社）不動産協会広報誌＜季刊＞）（ 39 ） 16-17 - 17 2005年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

郵政の民営化問題について

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内外経済情勢懇談会（財団法人　統計研究会）（ 47 ） 1-39 - 39 2005年03月

研究論文（その他学術会議資料等）, 単著

Macroeconomic Effect of Corporate Income Tax on Investments by Banks

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DERIVATIVES&FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS 7 （ 5 ） 199-208 - 208 2005年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

Deciphering the Message in Japanese Deflation Dynamics

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Asian Economic Papers MIT Press （MIT Press） 3 （ 2 ） 49-70 - 70 2005年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

インセンティブ・メカニズムが働く社会構造に転換せよ

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PHP Business Review （PHP研究所）（ 1・2月） 2005年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

公共部門の効率性向上のためのレベニュー債権

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住宅土地経済（財団法人　日本住宅総合センター）（ 58 ） 10-18 - 18 2005年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

The Optimal Weight and Composition of a Basket Currency in Asia- The Implications of Asymmetry

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SCMS JOURNAL OF INDIAN MANAGEMENT SCMS Journal of Indian Management, School of Communication and Management （SCMS Journal of Indian Management, School of Communication and Management） 74-87 - 87 2005年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

インセンティブ・メカニズムが働く構造へ

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NIRA政策研究総合研究開発機構 18 （ 9 ） 2005年

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財政の持続可能性に関するシミュレーション分析

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フィナンシャル・レビュー（財務省財務総合政策研究所）（ 5 ） 125-145 2004年11月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

中小企業支援のために政策金融のあるべき姿を考える

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中小公庫マンスリー（中小企業金融公庫） 2004年11月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

レベニュー・ボンド（事業別歳入債）による財政規律の構築

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フィナンシャル・レビュー（財務省財務総合政策研究所） 2004年11月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

金融業の情報化、英語教育の強化が課題

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月刊ABC 2004年08月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

金融業の再生に向けて

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金融ビジネス（東洋経済新聞社） 2004年08月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

日本郵政公社に期待する、求められる新たなビジネスモデル

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通信「耀」（(社）通信研究会） 2004年07月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

信用保証の経済分析

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信用保険/月報（中小企業総合事業団） 2-8 2004年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

小泉改革の本丸・郵政民営化の方向

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経済予測　マクロ編 2004年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Postal Savings System and FILP in Korea

吉野直行

Discussion Paper （Keio University Market Quality Research Project） 2004年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

邦銀はアジア債券市場育成に主観的な関与を‐域内で資金が還流する仕組みが必要

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金融財政事情（(社）金融財政事情研究会） 40-44 2004年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

Local Government Finance in Japan; Can Irresponsible Borrowing be Avoided?

吉野直行

Discussion Paper （Keio University Market Quality Research Project） 2004年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

地方経済の活性化と事業目的別歳入債

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RPレビュー（日本政策投資銀行地域政策研究センター） 13 （ 2 ） 48-55 2004年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

The Basket-Peg, Dollar-Prg and Floating Exchange Rate Regimes---A Comparative Analysis

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Journal of the Japanese and International Economies （Elsevier） 18 183-217 2004年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

The Stabilization of an Open Economy with Capital Controls: An analysis Using Malaysian Data

吉野直行

Asian Economic Papers （MIT Press） 3 （ 2 ） 69-83 2004年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

The Role of Infrastructure in Economic Development

吉野直行

The ICFAI Journal of Managerial Economics （ICFAI Universty Press, India） 2 （ 2 ） 7-24 2004年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

郵政民営化：考慮すべき論点

吉野直行

ECO-FORUM （（財）統計研究会） 22 （ 3 ） 30-40 2004年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

今後のアジア諸国との協調関係を考える、日本経済とアジア債券市場の育成

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PHP Business Review （PHP研究所）（ 1・2月） 26-29 2004年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

小泉改革の本丸・郵政民営化の方向、民間にできることは民間に

吉野直行

PHP Business Review （PHP研究所）（ 3・4月） 22-26 2004年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

窓口ネットワークの活用で郵便局、銀行、保険の共存を図る

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PHP Business Review （PHP研究所）（ 5・6月） 19-22 2004年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

収益性のある社会資本整備で自立した地域経済の確立を！

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PHP Business Review （PHP研究所）（ 7・8月） 23-26 2004年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

「総合的な学習の時間」「個に応じた指導」で多様な教育制度の構築を推進

吉野直行

PHP Business Review （PHP研究所）（ 9・10月） 41-44 2004年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

民営化は、日本の金融業が国際競争力を身につけるチャンス

吉野直行

PHP Business Review （PHP研究所）（ 11・12月） 39-42 2004年

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市場の質という視点からアジアの経済発展を目指す

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大学受験アルファ・ダッシュ（学校法人代々木ゼミナール） 2 2004年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

アジア金融危機とマクロ経済政策の対応

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三田評論（慶應義塾大学） 276pages 2004年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

吉野直行金融研究研修センター長インタビュー

吉野直行

アクセスFSA （金融庁）（ 12 ） 17-25 2003年11月

単著

Effectiveness of Public Investment in Japan

吉野直行

15th PECC General Meeting-Brunei Darussalam 2003年09月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

望まれる国際視点からの金融業の再構築

吉野直行

金融（全国銀行協会）（ 678 ） 4-7 2003年09月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

アジアにおけるグローバル化の問題‐金融・外交・安全保障（座談会）

吉野直行

三田評論（慶應義塾大学出版会）（ 1060 ） 12-27 2003年08月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

国家公務員採用試験について語る〜試験専門委員の立場から(座談会）

吉野直行

人事院月報（人事院）（ 648 ） 20-26 2003年08月

研究論文（その他学術会議資料等）, 単著

日本の国際市場の改革と財政投融資

吉野直行

NIRA政策研究（総合研究開発機構） 16 （ 8 ） 2003年08月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

日本経済とアジア‐日本経済再生のカギはどこにあるか

吉野直行

月刊財界人（ 7月） 54-57 2003年07月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

地方債インタビュー　種類ごと目的明確に

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日経公社債情報（ 1395 ） 2003年07月

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Reforming Japan: the long haul

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Financial Regulator 8 （ 1 ） 2003年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

全国一律のサービス提供と低コスト化の両立が課題に‐郵政公社発足で郵貯はどう変わる

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金融財政事情（（社）金融財政事情研究会） 16-20 2003年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

地方行財政と地域金融（座談会）

吉野直行

PRレビュー 1 （ 10 ） 2003年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

円の国際化で日本経済を再生

吉野直行

PR(Risk&Return), Global Investment News 2003年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

経済学教育の実践的課題

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現代経済学の潮流2003 （東洋経済新報社） 2003年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

オフィスビル総合収益率の決定要因

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住宅土地経済（（財）日本住宅総合センター）（ 50 ） 26-35 2003年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

日本に欠けているもの（座談会）

吉野直行

季刊未来経営（フジタ未来経営研究所）（ 10 ） 2003年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

日本経済回復の道、株価回復は国民一人ひとりの地道な努力にかかっている

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PHP Business Review （PHP研究所）（ 5・6月） 20-24 2003年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

日本経済回復の道、財政赤字をこれ以上増やさない、という意識を皆が持つこと

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PHP Business Review （PHP研究所）（ 7・8月） 23-28 2003年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

教育充実の必要性、財政赤字の中でも、教育支出は将来の日本のために不可欠

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PHP Business Review （PHP研究所）（ 9・10月） 51-56 2003年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

自分の財産をどうするのか、資産運用の哲学を確立させる必要がある

吉野直行

PHP Business Review （PHP研究所）（ 11・12月） 51-56 2003年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

地方行政と地域経済(座談会）

吉野直行

RP（Regional Policy)レビュー（日本政策投資銀行地域政策研究センター） 1 （ 10 ） 11-18 2003年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

経済学教育の実践的課題

吉野直行

現代経済学の潮流2003 （東洋経済新報社） 2003年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

オフィスの総合収益率変動要因に関する実証分析

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ファイナンシャルプランニング研究 3 23-29 2003年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

時代を読む，脱「人頼み」の思考が日本経済を建て直す

吉野直行

月刊ABC 2002年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

An Empirical Analysis of the Changes in the Government Agencies and The Postal Savings System in Japan

吉野直行

The Hanyang Journal of Economic Studies 23 （ 2 ） 2002年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

『郵貯・財投改革と日本の金融システム』（吉野直行委員レポート）

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金融システムと行政の将来ビジョン懇話会（財経詳報社） 121-127 2002年08月

研究論文（研究会，シンポジウム資料等）, 単著

財政投融資の金融的側面と民業補完

吉野直行

ESP（Economy Society Policy）（（社）経済企画協会） 24-28 2002年07月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

年金運用の効率化不可欠(経済教室)

吉野直行

日本経済新聞（日本経済新聞社） 2002年03月

単著

財政投融資制度の改革と地方債市場の今後のあり方

吉野直行

日本経済研究（ 44 ） 167-187 2002年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

産業構造の変化と21世紀の日本の都市

吉野直行

都市計画（都市計画学会） 51 （ 6 ） 13-16 2002年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

地域計量経済モデルによる首都高速中央環状線の事業効果計測

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新都市 56 （ 2 ） 21-29 2002年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

マクロモデルによる財政投融資の経済効果に関する理論・実証分析

吉野直行・中田真佐男

金融の新しい流れ（日本評論社） 59-91 2002年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

マクロモデルによる財政投融資の経済効果に関する理論・実証分析

吉野直行

金融の新しい流れ（日本評論社） 59-91 2002年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

為替制度の比較分析

吉野直行

金融の新しい流れ（日本評論社） 95-116 2002年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

経済再生に金融業の国際競争力強化を

吉野直行

月刊金融ジャーナル 18-21 2002年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

これからの家計の資産運用

吉野直行

日本FPジャーナル 4 （ 23 ） 4 2002年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

日本経済の現状とその処方箋

吉野直行

NIRA政策研究（総合研究開発機構） 15 （ 9 ） 20-23 2002年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

The Current State of the Japanese Economy and Remedies

吉野直行

Asian Economic Papers （MIT-Press） 1 （ 2 ） 110-126 2002年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

A Comparative Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes

吉野直行

Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability （Kluwer Academic Publishers, Massachusetts, USA） 7 107-131 2002年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

住宅と住宅政策の大転換

吉野直行

住宅土地経済（（財）日本住宅総合センター） 2002年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

わが国信用組合の破綻と地域特性

吉野直行

ファイナンシャルプランニング研究（日本FP学会） 2 13-24 2002年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

住宅金融　日米独の比較（講義録）

吉野直行

ファイナンシャルプランニング研究（日本FP学会） 2 25-35 2002年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

国債市場から学ぶわが国の地方債市場

吉野直行

地方債月報 4-10 2001年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

国際市場から学ぶわが国の地方債市場

吉野直行

地方債月報 4-10 2001年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

激変する国際社会と日本経済のゆくえ

吉野直行

三田評論（慶應義塾大学） 10-24 2001年12月

研究論文（大学，研究機関等紀要）, 共著

The Basket-peg, Dollar-peg and Floating --- A comparative Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes

吉野直行, 鈴木彩子

Conference of Designing Financial Systems in East Asia and Japan: Toward a Twenty-First Century Paradigm, Hitotsubashi University and International Monetary Fund 561-618 2001年09月

共著

アジア経済・金融の今後の課題について

吉野直行

ファイナンス（財務省） 1-24 2001年08月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

郵貯・財政改革とその展望

吉野直行

証券アナリストジャーナル 8-20 2001年08月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

（改革・特殊法人）費用と便益、長期分析を(経済教室)

Thomas Cargill and Naoyuki Yoshino

日本経済新聞（日本経済新聞社） 2001年07月

研究論文（その他学術会議資料等）, 共著

Modernizing Japan's Postal Saving System

Thomas Cargill and Naoyuki Yoshino

The Financial Regulator （The Central Banking Publication, UK） 42-49 2001年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

わが国の資金の流れとペイオフ解禁

吉野直行

信用金庫 36-40 2001年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Japan's New Prime Minister and the Postal Saving System

吉野直行

FRB San Fransisco Economic Letter （ 15 ） 1-3 2001年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

金融システム改革の動向

吉野直行

東アジアにおける市場経済の進展と地域協力に関する調査研究（産業研究所（財団法人世界平和研究所)） 2001年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

国債市場改革、英に学べ

吉野直行

日経金融新聞 2001年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

21世紀の国債市場に求められるもの

吉野直行

にちぎんクオータリー（ Autumn ） 2-11 2001年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Japan's Postal Savings and the Modernaization of the Financial System

吉野直行

The Financial Regulator （The Central Banking Publication, UK） 42-29 2001年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

A Comparative Analysis of the Japanese and the German Banking System

吉野直行

JAPANSTUDIEN （Jahrbuch des Deutschen Instituts fur Japanstudien der Philipp Franzvon Siebold Stiftung） 13 343-372 2001年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

政策評価と計量分析

吉野直行

季刊社会保障研究（国立社会保障・人口問題研究所） 37 （ 2 ） 2001年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

パーソナル・ファイナンスで変わるFPコンサルティング

吉野直行

ビジネスガイド別冊FPサポート（日本法令）（ 1月） 4-8 2001年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Economic Effect of Infrastructure---Japan's Experience after World War Ⅱ

吉野直行

JBIC Review （ 3 ） 3-19 2000年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

社会資本の経済効果ーー日本の戦後の経験

中東雅樹、吉野直行

開発金融研究所報（国際協力銀行） 4-20 2000年11月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

金融システムにおけるノンバンクの現状とその将来性

吉野直行

ジュリスト増刊「金融システムと法」（有斐閣） 121-126 2000年11月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Public Banking in Germany and Japan's Fiscal Investment and Loan Program: A Comparison

吉野直行

Duisburger Arbeitspapiere Zur Ostasienwirtschaft （ 54 ） 2000年10月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

アジアの金融再生支援を(経済教室）

吉野直行

日本経済新聞（日本経済新聞社） 2000年07月

研究論文（その他学術会議資料等）, 単著

アジアの金融危機と日本の役割(経済教室）

吉野直行

日本経済新聞（日本経済新聞社） 2000年07月

研究論文（その他学術会議資料等）, 単著

地域協力で通貨危機を防止

吉野直行

外為情報（外国為替情報社）（ 11499 ） 2000年06月

研究論文（その他学術会議資料等）, 単著

アジア金融危機とそのマクロ経済政策の対応

吉野直行

三田評論（慶応大学出版会）（ 1025 ） 22-28 2000年06月

研究論文（大学，研究機関等紀要）, 単著

Widening Household Savings Portfolio

吉野直行

Look Japan 46 （ 531 ） 16-17 2000年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

日本の金融・世界の金融（シンポジウム）

吉野直行

Journal of Financial Planning （日本ファイナンシャル・プランナーズ協会） 2 （ 10 ） 12-15 2000年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

ゼロ金利政策・財政投融資改革と地方債

吉野直行

地方債月報（地方債協会）（ 250 ） 14-20 2000年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

家計の金融資産選択行動のパネルデータ分析

吉野　直行,和田

変革期の金融資本市場（日本評論社） 3-24 2000年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

The Postal Saving System, Fiscal Investment and Loan Program, and Modernization of Japan's Financial System

Crisis and Change in the Japanese Financial System （Columbia University Press） 2000年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

バスケットペッグ制・ドルペッグ制・変動相場制の比較分析

吉野　直行,嘉治　佐保子,鈴木　彩子

円の国際化推進研究会（国際経済研究所） 1-35 2000年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

21世紀の東北と財政投融資

吉野　直行

日経研月報（日本経済研究所） 18-26 2000年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

財政投融資の景気浮揚効果に関する理論・実証分析

吉野　直行,中田

国民経済雑誌 181 （ 1 ） 57-82 2000年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

わが国の金融資産選択の特徴

吉野　直行,村田

金融ビジネス事典（産業調査会） 2000年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

金融

吉野　直行

アメリカを知る事典（平凡社） 2000年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

財政投融資改革と今後の公的住宅金融

吉野直行

（季刊）住宅土地経済（日本住宅総合センター）（ 38 ） 20-27 2000年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

個人資産

吉野直行

金融ビジネス事典（産業調査会） 1999年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

政策コストの分析急げ(経済教室)

吉野直行

日本経済新聞（日本経済新聞社） 1999年10月

研究論文（その他学術会議資料等）, 単著

信託の経済分析

吉野直行

ジュリスト（有斐閣） 1116 38-43 1999年10月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

金融ビッグバンと日本経済

吉野　直行

現代法律実務の諸問題（日本弁護士連合会） 917-939 1999年10月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

経済政策の正しい考え方

吉野　直行,中田,中東

社会資本の分野別生産力効果と公共投資シミュレーション（東洋経済新報社） 148-184 1999年09月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

社会資本整備の財源とその評価

吉野　直行

社会資本の未来（日本経済新聞社） 229-261 1999年09月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

社会資本の分野別生産力効果と公共投資シミュレーション

吉野　直行,中田,中東

経済政策の正しい考え方（東洋経済新報社） 148-184 1999年09月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

高度成長期から今日に至る社会資本の生産力効果に関する実証分析

吉野　直行,中東

社会資本の効果を問う（日本経済研究センター） 17-28 1999年09月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

さまざまな住宅金融政策と住宅金融政策の将来

吉野直行

住団連 67 1999年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Window Guidance by the Bank of Japan; Was Lending Controlled？

Contemporary Economic Policy （Oxford University Press） 17 （２） 166-176 1999年04月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

Toward Financial Stabilization

吉野直行

Look Japan 44 （ 514 ） 12-13 1999年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

平成不況期における設備投資の低迷と財政投融資の投資誘導効果　　　　　　　　　― 設備投資関数と設備資金供給関数の連立方程式体系による実証分析 ―

吉野直行・和田良子

Keio Economic Society Discussion Paper Series （ 9901 ） 1999年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

Japan's Postal Giant: Too big its boots

吉野直行

The financial Regulator 3 （ 3 ） 39-42 1998年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

公共投資乗数の変化と社会資本の生産効果

吉野直行

経済セミナー（ 527 ） 1998年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

効率高い都市型重視に(経済教室)

吉野直行

日本経済新聞（日本経済新聞社） 1998年11月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

A Simulation of the Macroeconomic Impact of ODA with the Dept Factor: The Philippine Experience

吉野直行

Journal of Philippine Development （ 2 ） 199-232, 95 1998年09月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

金融所得課税とビッグバン

吉野直行

国際租税研究（ 1 ） 1998年08月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

多様な住宅金融政策による民間補完

吉野直行

住宅金融月報（ 557 ） 1998年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

外為法改正の国民生活への影響

吉野直行

フォト 1998年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

公共投資の経済効果に関する実証研究

亀田、吉野

Policy　Research　Center （建設省建設政策研究センター）（ 19 ） 1998年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

消費者金融の金利支払いに関するシミュレーション分析

藤丸麻紀、吉野直行

生活経済学研究 13 1998年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

社会資本の整備と財政投融資の諸問題

吉野直行

日本経済研究センター会報（ 792 ） 1998年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

多重債務問題（座談会）

吉野直行

全国貸金業協会連合会（全国貸金業協会連合会） 104 1998年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

海外の公的金融制度から学ぶ21世紀の財投制度と経済活性化

吉野直行

QRI REPORT 33 1998年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

財政投融資の入り口と出口の役割とその将来

吉野直行

財政投融資の経済分析（日本経済新聞社） 49-81 1998年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

The Tax System and the Fiscal Investment and Loan Program

吉野直行

Industrial Policy of Japan （Academic Press） 1998年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

EU各国の税制と今後の金融課税

吉野直行

ユーロと日本経済（東洋経済新報社） 1998年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

金融政策手段とケインズ乗数（開放経済マクロモデルによる理論計量分析）

吉野直行

フィナンシャル・レビュー 1998年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

金融大改革は住宅市場にどのような影響をおよぼすか（特別企画座談会）

吉野直行

住宅土地経済（ winter, 27 ） 1998年

単著

わが国の住宅金融政策の現状と証券化

吉野直行

都市住宅学（Association of Urban Housing Sciences） 1998 （ 24 ） 55 - 62 1998年

共著, ISSN 1341-8157

Access to Document (DOI)

公共投資のフロー効果

亀田、吉野

Policy　Research （建設省建設政策研究センター）（ 27 ） 1997年10月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著

金融ビッグバンの背景と展望

吉野直行

ジュリスト（有斐閣）（ 1119 ） 1997年09月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

投信販売の拡大と金融ビッグバン

吉野直行

投資信託（証券投資信託協会）（ 441 ） 1997年07月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

公共投資の効果とその発想転換

吉野直行

建設月報（ 576 ） 1997年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

住宅金融と財投システム

吉野直行

住宅月報 1997年04月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

郵貯のあり方と財投システム

吉野直行

金融ジャーナル 1997年04月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

ノンバンクのさらなる拡大のために

吉野直行

金融ジャーナル 1997年04月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

日銀の独立性と金融行政

吉野直行

かんぽ資金（ 226 ） 1997年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

資産運用とビッグバン

吉野直行

投資顧問（日本証券投資顧問業協会）（ 17 ） 1997年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

護送船団方式と決別

吉野直行

財界(ZAIKAI) （ 6-20 ） 1997年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Comments Japan

吉野直行

Law and Policy in International Business 28 （ 3 ） 1997年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Japan's Independent Central Bank

吉野直行

The International Economy （ Sept/Oct. ） 1997年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

フランスの政府による住宅信用供与システム

吉野直行

住宅土地経済（ summer, 25 ） 1997年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

公共投資の地域配分と生産効果

吉野直行

フィナンシャル・レビュー（ 41 ） 1996年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

二百兆円の巨体が歩む5つのシナリオ

吉野直行

エコノミスト 1996年10月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

ノンバンクの業務と金融行政

吉野直行

ジュリスト（ 1095 ） 1996年08月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

ノンバンクの国際比較

吉野直行

国際問題研究 1996年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Effects of Financial Liberalization on Banks, Corporations, and Monetary Policy: Assert Price Inflation and Money Flow from Japan

吉野直行

U.S.-Japan Macro Economics Relations, Interactions and Independence in the 1980s: Incentives, Policies, and Legacies （University of Washington Press） 7 1996年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

公的金融と民間金融が並存する金融市場における競争と経済厚生

吉野直行

経済研究 47 （ 4 ） 1996年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Changing Behavior of Private Banks and Corporations and Monetary Policy in Japan

吉野直行

Financial Stability in a Changing Environment 209-270 1995年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Low interest rate policy of Japan and the role of branch network

吉野直行

Cited Paper by the Asian Miracle （World Bank and FAIR） 1994年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Monetary Stabilization with Interest Rate Instruments in Japan

吉野直行

Bank of Japan Monetary and Economic Studies 10 （ 2 ） 79-106 1992年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

An Expanded Equation Approach to Weak Exogeneity Tests in Structural Systems and a Monetary Application

吉野直行

Review of Economics and Statistics 22 （ 1 ） 173-177 1990年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

A Note on the Optical Choice of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Under Uncertainty

吉野直行

Journal of Macroeconomics 4 （ 4 ） 1982年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Framework for the Analysis of Monetary Policy

吉野直行

Economic Letters 1982年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

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