論文 - 吉野　直行

Alternatives to private finance: Role of fiscal policy reforms and energy taxation in development of renewable energy projects

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Financing for Low-carbon Energy Transition: Unlocking the Potential of Private Capital （Financing for Low-carbon Energy Transition: Unlocking the Potential of Private Capital）     335 - 357 2018年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  9789811085819

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The main obstacle to the development of Renewable Energy (RE) projects is lack of access to finance. Electricity tariff is often regulated by the government, hence, to increase the investment incentives the spill over effects originally created by energy supplies need to be used. Tax revenues are refunded to the investors in energy projects and such fiscal policy reform will increase the rate of return of energy projects. For smaller-size energy projects, this chapter provides a theoretical model for combining utilisation of carbon tax and a new way of financing risky capital, i.e., Hometown Investment Trust Funds (HITs). Because of the Basel capital requirement, and because most RE projects from the point of view of financers are considered to be risky projects, and thus many financers are reluctant to lend to them or they lend at high interest rates. This chapter theoretically shows that by taxing carbon dioxide (CO ), sulphur dioxide (SO ), and nitrogen oxides (NO ) and allocating those tax revenues to HITs, RE projects will become more feasible and more interesting for hometown investors, hence the supply of investment money to these funds will increase. 2 2 x

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Impact of International Remittances on Poverty Reduction: Case of Developing Asia

吉野 直行

Global Solutions Journal 1 （ 1 ） 90 - 96 2018年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り

FINANCIAL INCLUSION, FINANCIAL STABILITY AND INCOME INEQUALITY: INTRODUCTION

Yoshino N., Morgan P.

Singapore Economic Review （Singapore Economic Review）  63 （ 1 ） 1 - 7 2018年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  02175908

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HOUSEHOLD INCOME DYNAMICS IN A LOWER-INCOME SMALL OPEN ECONOMY: A COMPARISON OF BANKING AND CROWDFUNDING REGIMES

McNelis P., Yoshino N.

Singapore Economic Review （Singapore Economic Review）  63 （ 1 ） 147 - 166 2018年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  02175908

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This paper examines asset price and household income/consumption dynamics in a small open economy subject to terms of trade shocks, under two financial regimes. The first is a pure banking regime, in which firms borrow from banks for financing costs of labor, investment and intermediate goods for both the relatively riskless natural-resource traded sector and the non-traded sector. The second regime is more financially-inclusive banking/crowdfunding (BCF) regime, in which the households directly receive returns to capital from pooled lending to home-goods firms. Simulation results show that the banking regime better insulates the economy from negative shocks but limits the upside gain from positive shocks which would take place in the banking-crowdfunding regime.

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Mast cells partially contribute to mucosal adjuvanticity of surfactin in mice.

Yoshino N, Takeshita R, Kawamura H, Sasaki Y, Kagabu M, Sugiyama T, Muraki Y, Sato S

Immunity, inflammation and disease 6 （ 1 ） 117 - 127 2018年03月

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Mast cells partially contribute to mucosal adjuvanticity of surfactin in mice.

Yoshino N, Takeshita R, Kawamura H, Sasaki Y, Kagabu M, Sugiyama T, Muraki Y, Sato S

Immunity, inflammation and disease 6 （ 1 ） 117 - 127 2018年03月

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Optimization of trypsins for influenza A/H1N1 virus replication in MDCK SI-6 cells, a novel MDCK cell line.

Iskandar VI, Sasaki Y, Yoshino N, Abubakar RZR, Sato S, Muraki Y

Journal of virological methods 252   94 - 99 2018年02月

共著,  ISSN  0166-0934

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Optimization of trypsins for influenza A/H1N1 virus replication in MDCK SI-6 cells, a novel MDCK cell line.

Iskandar VI, Sasaki Y, Yoshino N, Abubakar RZR, Sato S, Muraki Y

Journal of virological methods 252   94 - 99 2018年02月

共著,  ISSN  0166-0934

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Assessment of the channels of transmission of oil price fluctuations to the economy

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N.

Argumenta Oeconomica （Argumenta Oeconomica）  41 （ 2 ） 5 - 34 2018年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  12335835

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This paper develops a New Keynesian model to examine a theoretical global economy with two basic macroeconomic components: an energy1 producer and an energy consumer. This simple economy uses these two components to evaluate how oil prices affect the consumer economy’s gross domestic product and inflation. This model assumes that changes in the oil price transfer to macro variables through either supply (aggregate supply curve) or demand channels (aggregate demand curve). To examine the effects of this transfer, an Investment-Saving (IS) curve is used to look at the demand side and a Phillips curve is used to analyze the inflationary effects from the supply side. The empirical analysis concludes that movements in the oil price mainly affect the economy through the demand side (shifting the aggregate demand curve) by affecting household expenditures and energy consumption. This analysis provides several additional findings, among which is that easy monetary policies amplify energy demand more than supply, resulting in skyrocketing crude oil prices, which inhibit economic growth.

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Housing bubbles and banking behaviors in China: A macro perspective

Yoshino N., Li V.J.

Journal of Comparative Asian Development （Journal of Comparative Asian Development）  17 （ 1 ） 73 - 94 2018年

ISSN  15339114

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The objective of this paper is to evaluate if China’s housing market has formulated bubbles in recent years, and the relationship between housing bubbles and banking behaviors. Based on three theoretical models, a set of signaling and early warning bubble indicators are adopted, including growth of M2 and bank loans, indices of Shibor and stock market, ratios of bank loan and real estate loan to GDP, and housing affordability indicators. We observe various signals for housing bubbles in China with reference to Japan in the late 1980s and USA in the 2000s, with more significant bubble signals since 2014. To explore the potential systematic risks for the financial systems (such as the consequences of housing market collapses in Japan and USA), the performances of large and medium sized Chinese banks are examined regarding the impacts of housing prices and other variables on bank loans. Empirical evidence suggests that housing asset appreciation provides higher mortgage collateral for commercial banks, thus increasing bank loan which may speed up the formation of housing bubbles. The findings have rich implications for understanding China’s current challenge in the financial de-leveraging process.

Combining environmental taxation, spill-over effects and community-based financing in development of renewable energy projects in Asia

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Economics and Policy of Energy and the Environment （Economics and Policy of Energy and the Environment）  2018 （ 1 ） 133 - 148 2018年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  22807659

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Asian economies are often characterized as having bank-dominated financial systems and underdeveloped capital markets, in particular with regard to venture capital. In economies that banks are the main source of funding, the main obstacle for financing infrastructural projects including renewable energy (RE) projects is lack of access to long-term finance. The second obstacle for development of RE energy projects is their lower rate of return comparing to fossil fuel projects as more subsidies are globally going to fossil fuels. For larger RE projects insurance and pensions are sustainable financing alternatives. Pension funds and insurance companies hold long-term savings, so these institutions could be a proper alternative for financing mega-size RE projects. In addition, utilizing the spillover effects originally created by energy supplies in form of tax revenues refund to RE projects will increase their rate of return and make them interesting for private investors. For smaller-size RE projects, the paper provides a theoretical model for combining utilisation of carbon tax and a new way of financing risky capital, i.e., Hometown Investment Trust Funds (HITs). The paper theoretically shows that by environmental taxation and allocating these tax revenues to HITs, RE projects will become more feasible and more interesting for private investors; hence the supply of investment money to these funds will increase.

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マクロ経済学の視点 原油価格の下落が引き金 高齢社会の構造にも問題 (大論争 なぜ物価は上がらないか)

吉野 直行, 宮本 弘暁

エコノミスト （毎日新聞出版）  95 （ 42 ） 82 - 83 2017年10月

共著,  ISSN  0013-0621

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Declined effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies faced with aging population in Japan

Naoyuki Yoshino, Hiroaki Miyamoto

JAPAN AND THE WORLD ECONOMY （ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV）  42   32 - 44 2017年06月

共著,  ISSN  0922-1425

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This paper studies how population aging affects economic performance and the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies. We develop a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households: workers and retirees. We demonstrate that an increase in the proportion of working population increases aggregate output, consumption, and investment by increasing total labor supply in the long run. It also increases wages and reduces the social security burden of the government. This paper also finds that the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies is weakened when the proportion of retirees becomes larger. (C) 2017 Published by Elsevier B.V.

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An impact evaluation of investment in infrastructure: The case of a railway connection in Uzbekistan

Naoyuki Yoshino, Umid Abidhadjaev

Journal of Asian Economics （Elsevier B.V.）  49   1 - 11 2017年04月

共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  1049-0078

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The Tashguzar–Baysun–Kumkurgan (TBK) railway connection, completed in 2007 in southern Uzbekistan, provided a domestic through line to link rail stretches formerly connected only via neighboring Turkmenistan. We hypothesize that a better integrated domestic rail system would yield economic spillovers beyond the regions actually traversed by the new connector to generate higher growth for neighboring regions and even for the far terminal reaches of the system. We test for this using a difference in difference approach that assesses the impact of the rail connector on economic performance for each of three regional groupings relative to a control group of unaffected regions. We further distinguish effects for the short term (2008), medium term (2009–10), and long term (2011–12). We find statistically significant increases in GDP growth for all three regional groupings at medium or long term horizons with magnitudes of increase up to 2.6 percentage points per year.

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信託機能を活用したファイナンス手法等の海外展開に向けた考察(1) (信託経済コンファレンス : 信託機能を活用したファイナンス手法等の海外展開に向けた考察)

吉野 直行

信託 （信託協会）   （ 269 ） 114 - 128 2017年02月

共著,  ISSN  0386-1368

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Decline of oil prices and the negative interest rate policy in Japan

Naoyuki Yoshino, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Nour Tawk

ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL STUDIES-EPS （TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD）  5 （ 2 ） 233 - 250 2017年

共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  2095-4816

　概要を見る

In April 2013, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) introduced an inflation target of 2% with the aim of overcoming deflation and achieving sustainable economic growth. But due to lower international oil prices it was unable to achieve this target and was forced to take further measures. Hence, in February 2016, the BOJ adopted a negative interest rate policy by massively increasing the money supply through the purchase of long-term Japanese government bonds (JGB). The BOJ had previously only purchased short-term government bonds, a policy that flattened the yield curve of JGBs. On the one hand, banks reduced the number of government bonds they purchased because short-term bond yields had become negative. The interest rates of long-term government bond up to 15 years even became negative. On the other hand, bank loans to corporates did not increase, due to Japanese economy's vertical investment-saving (IS) curve. The purpose of this paper is to show that the monetary policy through implementation of the zero interest rate and more recently through the negative interest rate could not help the Japanese economy to recover from the long-lasting recession and these are not the remedy. It is of key importance to make the IS curve downward rather than vertical. That means the rate of return on investment must be positive and companies must be willing to invest even if interest rates are set too low. Japan's long-term recession is due to structural problems that cannot be solved by its current monetary policy. The paper also explains why the BOJ has to reduce its 2% inflation target in the present low oil price era.

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為替制度の移行における動学的な最適経路： 中国，シンガポール，マレーシアの分析

吉野 直行, 阿曽沼 多聞

国際経済 （日本国際経済学会）  68   31 - 52 2017年

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<p>本稿では中国・シンガポール・マレーシアにおける為替制度の最適な移行について議論する。中国は現在，ドルペッグ制を採用しているが，今後，どのような形でバスケットペッグ制または変動相場制といった望ましい為替制度に移行するのが良いか。そして中国が為替制度を徐々に変更していく場合に，シンガポールやマレーシアはどのように為替制度を変更していけばよいか。この二つの問いに答えるために，本稿は小国開放経済を想定し動学的確率的一般均衡モデル（DSGE）を用い厚生関数（損失関数）で評価をする。その中で，現行制度からバスケットペッグ制または変動相場制への移行について複数の移行策を検討する。中国にとっては経済成長（GDPの成長）を安定化させるためにはバスケットペッグ制への漸進的な移行が最適な移行経路となる。シンガポールとマレーシアも徐々に為替制度を移行してバスケット通貨制とすることが，もっとも経済成長を安定化させる結果になることが示された。 </p>

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The effectiveness of the negative interest rate policy in Japan

Naoyuki Yoshino, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Hiroaki Miyamoto

Credit and Capital Markets 50 （ 2 ） 189 - 212 2017年

共著,  ISSN  2199-1227

　概要を見る

© 2017, Duncker und Humblot GmbH. All rights reserved. In April 2013, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), in order to overcome deflation and achieve sustainable economic growth, introduced an inflation target of 2 %. However due to the lower oil prices in the global market, this target could not be achieved for a long-term period. In Feb 2016, the BOJ took further steps, and started a negative interest rate policy, by increasing massive money supply through purchasing long-term Japanese government bonds (JGB). Previously the BOJ only purchased short-term government bonds. This policy has flattened the yield curve of JGBs. Banks started to reduce purchasing government bonds, because the yield of short-term government bonds’ became negative, and even for long-term government bonds up to 15 years the interest rates became negative. On the other hand, bank loans to the corporate sector did not grow, due to the vertical investment-saving (IS) curve in the Japanese economy. This paper discusses that first, in the low oil price era, the BOJ has to modify the inflation target of 2 % and reduce it, secondly it argues that the role of monetary policy and the negative interest rate policy in Japan cannot recover from the current recession and deflation situation for the long term. What is important is to make the IS curve downward sloping rather than vertical. That means the rate of return on investment must be positive and companies must be willing to invest if interest rates were set too low. The recession in Japan is coming from structural problems that cannot be solved by the current monetary policy. The last section reports a simulation results of tackling aging population of Japan by introducing productivity based wage rate and postpone retirement age will help the recovery of Japanese economy.

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MAJOR CHALLENGES SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES FACING WITHIN ASIA: SOLUTIONS FOR MITIGATING THEM

Naoyuki Yoshino, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

ENTREPRENEURS. ENTREPRENEURSHIP: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE 21ST CENTURY （TRITONIC PUBL HOUSE）     102 - 124 2017年

共著, 査読有り

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Small and Medium-sized enterprises are the backbone of the Asian economy. They make up more than 98% of all Asian businesses that provide two out of three private sector jobs in the continent. Therefore, it is vitally important for the Asian's economic success that has fully functioning support measures for SMEs. However, SMEs face challenges from limited access to finance, lack of a database to low R&D expenditures, undeveloped sales channels, and low level of financial inclusion are some of the reasons behind the slow growth of SMEs. This paper focuses on four major reasons that slowed the SME growth in Asia including (i) Lack of finance (ii) Lack of comprehensive database, (iii) Low level of R&D expenditures and (iv) Insufficient usage of Information technology and provides remedies for mitigating them. It is important for the Asian policymakers to implement these remedies in order to promote the production and employment in the SME sector which is the essential part of the Asian economies and is in the supply chain of large enterprises as well.

Impact of the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster on the Oil-Consuming Sectors of Japan

Taghizadeh-Hesary, F., Yoshino, N., Rasoulinezhad, E.

Journal of Comparative Asian Development （Informa {UK} Limited）  16 （ 2 ） 113 - 134 2017年

共著, 査読有り

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