論文 - 吉野　直行

Trade linkages and transmission of oil price fluctuations

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Rasoulinezhad E., Chang Y.

Energy Policy （Energy Policy）  133 2019年10月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  03014215

　概要を見る

This study is an attempt to ascertain how oil price shock can affect a trade-linked system via monetary variables. To this end, a simultaneous equation model (SEM) was applied through a Weighted Two Stage Least Squares (W2SLS) estimation method to different countries (21 cases) with business relations over the period from Q1 2000 to Q4 2015. In the case of oil-exporting countries—consisting of Iran, Russian Federation, UAE, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan—the findings revealed that they totally benefit from oil price increases. In the case of oil-importing countries, the effects are more diverse. To derive a better interpretation, we divided them into four groups: European Union (EU) members (Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Poland); East Asian nations (Japan; People's Republic of China; Republic of Korea; Viet Nam; Taipei China; Singapore; and Hong Kong, China); Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) (Ukraine and Belarus) and others (the United States, India, and Turkey). The results showed that all these countries importing oil face a negative supply shock, except Turkey which benefits directly from an oil price shock. Furthermore, the indirect effect coefficient received through trade for all these countries was positive.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Optimal credit guarantee ratio for small and medium-sized enterprises’ financing: Evidence from Asia

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Economic Analysis and Policy （Economic Analysis and Policy）  62   342 - 356 2019年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  03135926

　概要を見る

Difficulty in accessing finance is one of the critical factors constraining the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Given their importance for national economies, it is imperative to find ways to provide SMEs with stable finance. One efficient way to promote SME financing is through credit guarantee schemes, by which the government guarantees a portion (ratio) of a loan provided by a bank to a SME. Due to asymmetry of information between banks and SMEs, total loans to SMEs are smaller than the desired level of SME loan demand. Therefore, providing credit guarantees reduces information asymmetry between SME and banks, which increases the amount of loans to SMEs. The ultimate goal of the government is to provide a desired level of loans to SMEs by reducing information asymmetry. This research provides a theoretical model and an empirical analysis of factors that determine an optimal credit guarantee ratio. The ratio should be at such a level that it achieves the government's goal of minimizing banks’ nonperforming loans to SMEs, and at the same realize the government policy objective of supporting SMEs by reducing information asymmetry. Our results show that three factors determine the optimal credit guarantee ratio: (i) government policy, (ii) macroeconomic conditions, and (iii) the behavior of banks. To avoid moral hazard and ensure the stability of lending to SMEs, it is crucial for governments to set the optimal credit guarantee ratio based on macroeconomic conditions and vary it for each bank or each group of banks based on their soundness.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Fair premium rate of the deposit insurance system based on banks’ creditworthiness

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Nili F.

Studies in Economics and Finance （Studies in Economics and Finance）  36 （ 1 ） 8 - 31 2019年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  10867376

　概要を見る

Purpose: Deposit insurance is a key element in modern banking, as it guarantees the financial safety of deposits at depository financial institutions. It is necessary to have at least a dual fair premium rate system based on creditworthiness of financial institutions, as considering singular premium system for all banks will have moral hazard. This paper aims to develop theoretical and empirical model for calculating dual fair premium rates. Design/methodology/approach: The definition of a fair premium rate in this paper is a rate that covers the operational expenditures of the deposit insuring organization, provides it with sufficient funds to enable it to pay a certain percentage share of deposit amounts to depositors in case of bank default and provides it with sufficient funds as precautionary reserves. To identify and classify healthier and more stable banks, the authors use credit rating methods that use two major dimensional reduction techniques. For forecasting nonperforming loans (NPLs), the authors develop a model that can capture both macro shocks and idiosyncratic shocks to financial institutions in a vector error correction model. Findings: The response of NPLs/loans to macro shocks and idiosyncratic innovations shows that using a model with macro variables only is insufficient, as it is possible that under favorable economic conditions, some banks show negative performance due to bank level reasons such as mismanagement or vice versa. The final results show that deposit insurance premium rate needs to be vary based on banks’ creditworthiness. Originality/value: The results provide interesting insight for financial authorities to set fair deposit insurance premium rate. A high premium rate reduces the capital adequacy of individual financial institutions, which endangers the stability of the financial system; a low premium rate will reduce the security of the financial system.

• Access to Document (DOI)

経済学者が読み解く 現代社会のリアル(第16回)高齢化時代の新・マクロ経済論

吉野 直行, 宮本 弘曉

週刊東洋経済 （東洋経済新報社）   （ 6855 ） 88 - 89 2019年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  0918-5755

Energy and Food Security: Linkages through Price Volatility

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Rasoulinezhad E., Yoshino N.

Energy Policy （Energy Policy）  128   796 - 806 2019年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  03014215

　概要を見る

This study examines the linkages between energy price and food prices over the period 2000–2016 by using a Panel-VAR model in the case of eight Asian economies. Our results confirm that energy price (oil price) has a significant impact on food prices. According to the results of impulse response functions, agricultural food prices respond positively to any shock from oil prices. Our results show that there is a linkage between energy and food security through price volatility. Since inflation in oil price is harmful for food security, it would be necessary to diversify the energy consumption in this sector, from too much reliance on fossil fuels to an optimal combination of renewable and nonrenewable energy resources that will be in favor of not only the energy security by also the food security. In addition, the paper found that the impact of biofuel prices on food prices is statistically significant but explains less than 2% of the food price variance. However, by increasing the demand for biofuel, there should be more concern about the global increase in agricultural commodities prices and endangering food security, especially in vulnerable economies.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Empirical analysis of factors influencing the price of solar modules

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Inagaki Y.

International Journal of Energy Sector Management （International Journal of Energy Sector Management）  13 （ 1 ） 77 - 97 2019年04月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  17506220

　概要を見る

Purpose: One of the key drivers behind the recent growth in the global solar energy market is the decline in solar module prices. Many empirical analyses have been carried out to identify the mechanism behind this price reduction. However, studies on the price reduction mechanism of solar modules over the years have focused purely on the technological aspect of manufacturing. The purpose of this study is to consider the influence of economic and monetary factors such as the interest rate and exchange rate on solar module pricing in addition to other factors that considered in earlier studies including technology, wage rate and other energy prices. Design/methodology/approach: In this paper, an oligopolistic model and econometric method are used to determine the economic factors that have an influence on solar module prices. The paper constructs a solar module pricing model and conducts a fully modified ordinary least squares analysis to estimate the influence of each factor. Analysis is conducted for the top five solar module producing countries in the world from 1997 to 2015. The five countries are the People’s Republic of China, Germany, Japan, the Republic of Korea and the USA. Findings: Empirical analysis provides several findings concerning the solar module pricing mechanism. These vary for each country. However, generally the interest rate has a positive correlation with solar module prices, while the exchange rate, knowledge stock and oil price have a negative correlation with solar module prices. Practical implications: First, the government must expand channels for renewable energy funding. As renewable industries are high-tech, the influence that capital cost has on technology price is significant. Government efforts to provide industries with low-interest finance will accelerate renewable business. There have been many attempts to lower interest rates for renewable energy technology to accelerate growth in the green technology market. Second, the government must expand research and development (R&D) expenditures focused on renewable energy technology. The technological advancements acquired through R&D enhance module performance efficiency, thereby reducing costs. Therefore, government policies aimed at increasing targeted R&D expenditure will be an effective means of expanding the installation of renewable energies. Originality/value: Studies on the price reduction mechanism of solar modules over the years have focused purely on the technological aspect of the manufacturing. This is the first research to bring economic, monetary and technological factors of solar module pricing together.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Modelling the social funding and spill-over tax for addressing the green energy financing gap

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Nakahigashi M.

Economic Modelling （Economic Modelling）  77   34 - 41 2019年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  02649993

　概要を見る

The major challenge for filling the financing gaps of green energy is lower rate of return of green projects comparing to fossil fuels. Electricity tariffs are often regulated by governments; It has to be kept in low price to serve for every households as a necessary goods. Sources of revenue from green energy comes only from user charges. Hence it is not so much attractive for private investors. The paper is proposing a model for utilization of the tax revenue spillover of green energy supply by returning the portion of it to green energy projects in order to increase their rate of return. In addition, the paper is proposing a social community based funding scheme for smaller scale green projects (e.g. solar and wind). The paper theoretically and empirically shows that utilizing spillover effect in form of tax return for funding green energy projects will increase the rate of return and make them feasible and interesting for the private investors.

• Access to Document (DOI)

A comprehensive method for credit risk assessment of small and medium-sized enterprises based on Asian data

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Unlocking SME Finance in Asia: Roles of Credit Rating and Credit Guarantee Schemes （Unlocking SME Finance in Asia: Roles of Credit Rating and Credit Guarantee Schemes）     55 - 71 2019年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  9781138353428

　概要を見る

Due to the asymmetry of information between borrowers that are small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and lenders (banks), many banks consider this sector to be risky. It is crucial for banks to be able to distinguish healthy companies from risky ones in order to reduce their nonperforming assets in the SME sector. If they can do this, lending and financing to SMEs through banks will be easier, with lower collateral requirements and lower interest rates. In this chapter, we provide a scheme originally developed by Yoshino and Taghizadeh-Hesary (2014) for assigning credit ratings to SMEs by employing two statistical analysis techniques - principal component analysis and cluster analysis - using 11 financial ratios of 1,363 SMEs in Asia. If used by financial institutions, this comprehensive and efficient method could enable banks and other lending agencies around the world, especially in Asia, to group SME customers based on financial health, adjust interest rates on loans, and set lending ceilings for each group.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Role of SMEs in Asia and the financing challenges they face

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Unlocking SME Finance in Asia: Roles of Credit Rating and Credit Guarantee Schemes （Unlocking SME Finance in Asia: Roles of Credit Rating and Credit Guarantee Schemes）     3 - 22 2019年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  9781138353428

　概要を見る

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the backbone of the Asian economy. They make up more than 96% of all Asian businesses, providing two out of three private-sector jobs on the continent. Therefore, it is vital for Asia’s economic success that fully functioning support measures for SMEs are in place. However, SMEs face major challenges in accessing cheap finance, mainly because of the asymmetric information problem between suppliers and users of funds and high transaction costs. These lead to more collateral requirements for lending to SMEs with higher lending interest rates, which hinder their growth. As most Asian countries are bank-dominant economies, capital market financing is not a realistic option for SMEs. Therefore, we need to look for solutions that simplify banks’ lending to SMEs. This chapter will highlight the difficulties faced by SMEs in accessing finance and provide measures for mitigating them. The remedies proposed in this chapter include the development of a credit information infrastructure for SMEs, the utilization of credit-rating techniques for SMEs to address the problem of asymmetric information, and the development of a sustainable credit guarantee scheme to resolve the collateral issue.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Land trust to facilitate development through land transfer

Yoshino N., Paul S., Sarma V., Lakhia S.

Land Acquisition in Asia: Towards a Sustainable Policy Framework （Land Acquisition in Asia: Towards a Sustainable Policy Framework）     135 - 145 2019年01月

ISSN  9789811364549

　概要を見る

The recent political upheaval transgressing from the industrialization drive through forcible land grab in many parts of Asia (India, Indonesia, Nepal and the Philippines in particular) points to the need for a sustainable policy-a framework that results in a positive sum game, benefiting land owners without hurting growth prospects. Combining the tools from the fields of law and economics, we propose land trust or land lease for the development of infrastructure investment and industrialization purposes. We argue that this is one of the best ways to increase the rate of return to invite private investors into infrastructure investment. Through evidence from the success stories of land trust initiatives in many Asian countries, including India, we aim to showcase the relevance of this alternate method.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Introduction

Yoshino N., Paul S.

Land Acquisition in Asia: Towards a Sustainable Policy Framework （Land Acquisition in Asia: Towards a Sustainable Policy Framework）     1 - 6 2019年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著,  ISSN  9789811364549

　概要を見る

“Everything comes from land and ultimately goes back to it” explains an old Indian saying. All sense of value in an enterprise is rooted in the value of land. From business to warfare, the characteristics of land have the power to determine the ultimate success of the endeavour. From maintaining biodiversity to ensuring prosperity for all, the sound management of land resources is vitally important to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Asian Development Bank notes that more than 400 million Asians still lack electricity; roughly 300 million have no access to safe drinking water, and 1.5 billion lack basic sanitation. In many countries, power outages constrain economic growth. Development of infrastructure is a prerequisite for long-term sustainable economic growth. However, more than 8.8% of the GDP is needed to finance infrastructure-related projects in South Asia which are expected to have a spillover on the achievability of the SDGs.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Establishment of the credit risk database: Concrete use to evaluate the creditworthiness of SMEs

Kuwahara S., Yoshino N., Sagara M., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Unlocking SME Finance in Asia: Roles of Credit Rating and Credit Guarantee Schemes （Unlocking SME Finance in Asia: Roles of Credit Rating and Credit Guarantee Schemes）     89 - 111 2019年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  9781138353428

　概要を見る

A credit risk database (CRD) makes it possible to mitigate the problem of information asymmetry between SMEs and financial institutions and contributes to improving SMEs’ access to finance by collecting a large number of financial statements through the mechanism of SME finances and establishing a robust statistical model. In this chapter, we use the CRD in Japan, confirm the situation in Japan, and highlight the CRD’s contribution to evaluating the creditworthiness of SMEs. We also explain how to establish the CRD as a financial infrastructure, while indicating that the CRD and the scoring model based on it have maintained their quality due to their operating system. We hope our experience contributes to the introduction of a statistical CRD composed of a large number of anonymous financial statement data in other countries and that the CRD helps improve SMEs’ access to finance as a financial infrastructure.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Credit risk analysis of small and medium-sized enterprises based on thai data

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Charoensivakorn P., Niraula B.

Unlocking SME Finance in Asia: Roles of Credit Rating and Credit Guarantee Schemes （Unlocking SME Finance in Asia: Roles of Credit Rating and Credit Guarantee Schemes）     112 - 135 2019年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  9781138353428

　概要を見る

Small and medium-sized enterprise (SMEs) often face severe difficulties raising money. Considering the bank-dominated characteristic of Asian economies, banks are the main source of financing. In order to prevent the accumulation of nonperforming loans in the SME sector, it is crucial for banks to distinguish healthy SMEs from risky ones. This chapter examines how a credit rating scheme for SMEs can be developed when financial and non-financial data are not accessible just by using lending data of banks to SMEs. We employ statistical techniques on five variables from a sample of 3,272 Thai SMEs and classify them into subgroups based on their financial health. The source of data used for the credit risk analysis in this research is the National Credit Bureau of Thailand. By employing these techniques, banks could reduce information asymmetry and consequently set interest rates and lending ceilings for SMEs. This would ease financing to healthy SMEs and reduce the number of nonperforming loans to this important sector.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Conclusion

Yoshino N., Paul S.

Land Acquisition in Asia: Towards a Sustainable Policy Framework （Land Acquisition in Asia: Towards a Sustainable Policy Framework）     183 - 184 2019年01月

ISSN  9789811364549

　概要を見る

The acquisition, administration, and allotment of land for the purposes of development are intimately tied up with the issues of rights, local aspirations, power structures, and economic factors. This book has aimed to explore through diverse perspectives of the land grab crisis and its impact on those displaced within Asia. Throughout, we have sought to establish that land is a crucial factor in attaining sustainable development and approaching it from just an economic perspective would mean to isolate the multiple other factors that involve land management. Evidence from our regional case studies also pointed for the need of a policy framework that we proposed as the land trust method of Japan, explained in Chap. 9.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Attitudes toward land acquisition in indonesia

Yoshino N., Parinduri R.A., Oishi Y.

Land Acquisition in Asia: Towards a Sustainable Policy Framework （Land Acquisition in Asia: Towards a Sustainable Policy Framework）     57 - 79 2019年01月

ISSN  9789811364549

　概要を見る

Indonesia, a country with the fourth-largest population and abundant energy resources, is yet to fully optimize its potential. Especially, the high cost of logistics, missing links in the road network, and the unstable power supply undermine opportunities to revitalize economic activities. While there is a constant need for developing infrastructures, the country has struggled with tardy or unsuccessful land acquisitions. This research investigates the landowners’ decision-making in the land lease for infrastructure. The investigation of the determinants of leasing will provide insights into land planning and the negotiation process. We find that landlords are less willing to rent out their land if they self-cultivate the plots, if plots have been obtained through inheritance or have been owned for a longer period and if the land area is small particularly in the case of non-wetlands and plots located in their villages. Currently, the compensation is calculated based on the physical value of relinquished property. For the better facilitation of land acquisition for infrastructure projects, it would be advisable to take the above factors into account, as it would encourage landowners to accept the proposed compensation.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Preface

Naoyuki Yoshino, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

Unlocking SME Finance in Asia: Roles of Credit Rating and Credit Guarantee Schemes （Springer）  201 （ 1 ） xxi - xxi 2019年01月

共著,  ISSN  0920-5861

• Access to Document (DOI)

Unlocking SME finance in Asia: Roles of credit rating and credit guarantee Schemes

Naoyuki Yoshino, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

Unlocking SME Finance in Asia: Roles of Credit Rating and Credit Guarantee Schemes    1 - 400 2019年01月

共著

　概要を見る

© 2020 Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). There is limited access for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to bank credit. This book proposes new and sustainable models to help ease the access of SMEs to finance and boost economic growth and job creation in Asia. This book looks at the difficulties of SMEs in accessing finance and suggests ways on how to mitigate these challenges. It suggests how we can develop credit information infrastructures for SMEs to remedy the asymmetric information problem and to utilize credit rating techniques for the development of a sustainable credit guarantee scheme. The book provides illustrations of various Asian economies that implemented credit guarantee schemes and credit risk databases and is a useful reference for lessons and policy recommendations.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Hoarseness as an Initial Symptom of Thymic Carcinoma: A Case Report.

Takeuchi S, Yoshino N, Usuda J

Journal of Nippon Medical School = Nippon Ika Daigaku zasshi 86 （ 6 ） 357 - 359 2019年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  1345-4676

• Access to Document (DOI)

International remittances and poverty reduction: Evidence from developing Asia

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Otsuka M.

Journal of Comparative Asian Development （Journal of Comparative Asian Development）  17 （ 2 ） 21 - 42 2019年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  15339114

　概要を見る

International remittances represent the second-most-important source of external funding for developing countries after foreign direct investment (FDI). This paper examines the impact of international remittances on poverty reduction using the panel data of 10 Asian developing countries. In terms of the dependent variables, this paper sets 3 poverty indicators: the poverty headcount ratio, poverty gap ratio, and poverty severity ratio. The results show that international remittances have a statistically significant impact on the reduction of the poverty gap ratio and poverty severity ratio using the random-effect model of ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates. A 1% increase in international remittances as a percentage of the GDP can lead to a 22.6% decline in the poverty gap ratio and a 16.0% decline in the poverty severity ratio in the sample of 10 Asian developing countries from 1981 to 2014. In addition, the results indicate that a per capita GDP increase and trade openness can decrease the poverty measures and that higher inflation rates may be one of the causes of poverty.

Optimal fiscal policy rule for achieving fiscal sustainability: The Japanese case

Yoshino N., Mizoguchi T., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Global Business and Economics Review （Global Business and Economics Review）  21 （ 2 ） 156 - 173 2019年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  10974954

　概要を見る

Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio is the highest among OECD countries. While the Domar condition and Bohn's conditions are often used in the literature to check whether a government's debt situation is in a dangerous zone, this paper shows that the Domar condition is obtained only from the supply of government bonds without consideration of the demand side. In addition, Bohn's condition satisfies the stability of the government budget in the long run and even if the condition is satisfied, the recovery of the economy may not be achieved. This paper proposes a new condition considering both the demand and supply of the bond market that satisfies both the stability of the government budget and the recovery of the economy. The empirical findings show that to achieve fiscal sustainability, both sides of the Japanese Government budget (expenditure and revenue) need to be adjusted simultaneously and the decrease in government expenditure has to be more than the increase in tax revenue.

• Access to Document (DOI)