研究者詳細 - 吉野　直行

論文 - 吉野　直行

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From window guidance to interbank rates: Tracing the transition of monetary policy in Japan and China

Angrick S., Yoshino N.

International Journal of Central Banking （International Journal of Central Banking） 16 （ 3 ） 279 - 316 2020年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 18154654

Japanese monetary policy up to 1991 was based on a mix of price-based and quantity-based instruments and targets. Echoes of this system are today found in Chinese monetary policy. We explore the transition of these two regimes using historical statistics, computational text analysis, and structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models. Specifically, we examine the role of the interbank rate and “window guidance,” a policy by which authorities communicate target quotas for lending growth directly to commercial banks. We empirically demonstrate the declining effectiveness of quantity measures and the increasing importance of price measures and provide recommendations for managing this transition.

Effect of Smoking on Outcomes of Allogeneic Transplantation: A Single-Center Analysis.

Tamaki M, Nakasone H, Kawamura M, Kawamura S, Takeshita J, Yoshino N, Misaki Y, Yoshimura K, Matsumi S, Gomyo A, Tanihara A, Kusuda M, Akahoshi Y, Kawamura K, Kimura SI, Kako S, Kanda Y

Biology of blood and marrow transplantation : journal of the American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation 26 （ 6 ） 1131 - 1136 2020年06月

共著, ISSN 1083-8791

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How does population aging affect the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy ?

Naoyuki YOSHINO, Hiroaki Miyamoto

Global Solutons Journal, May 2020 May （ 2020 ） 2020年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り

Assessment of the Trade Integration Pattern Between the Russian Federation and East/Southeast Asian Economies Using the Panel Gravity Framework*

Ehsan Rasoulinezhad, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Naoyuki Yoshino

ASIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS （MIT PRESS） 19 （ 1 ） 1 - 14 2020年04月

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1535-3516

This study is the first attempt to investigate the patterns of imports and exports between the Russian Federation and East/Southeast Asian economies, namely, the People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Macau, China; Japan; the Republic of Korea; Mongolia; Cambodia; Lao People's Democratic Republic; Brunei; Indonesia; Malaysia; Myanmar; the Philippines; Singapore; Thailand; and Vietnam. To this end, a panel gravity trade model with series from 2001 to 2017 is provided to estimate the gravity variables in our models. The results reveal that GDP and income are more important in the export pattern from the Russian Federation to the East Asian region, meaning that the economic size and the income of the population in East Asian economies are more important in this pattern than other variables. Moreover, Russia's export pattern with the East Asian region follows the Heckscher-Ohlin hypothesis, while Russia's import pattern with this region is in line with the Linder hypothesis.

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Regional economic integration in asia: Challenges and recommended policies

Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Naoyuki Yoshino, Chul Ju Kim, Peter J. Morgan

Journal of Economic Integration 35 （ 1 ） 1 - 9 2020年03月

共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1225-651X

© 2020-Center for Economic Integration, Sejong Institution, Sejong University, All Rights Reserved. Regional economic integration is one of the most effective ways of fostering stability, addressing regional challenges, and increasing rates of economic growth. Strengthening regional cooperation and integration in different Asian sub-regions offers great potential for eliminating poverty and achieving inclusive and sustainable development. Hurdles remain, however, for further integration. The willingness to commit to “unity in diversity” is important to overcoming this, requiring the acceptance of cultural, linguistic, social, religious, and political differences. Such complex unities have been achieved in the European Union (EU) and elsewhere (Fella, 2002). Currently, in most Asian sub-regions, such political ambitions for economic integration have been scarce. This implies that a more cautious approach is needed in Asia than in other places. However, by studying the European context, we can derive valuable lessons for better fostering economic integration. Regional economic integration should first ensure the maximization of benefits for all participants. With this, complete cooperation is required to develop an effective and uniform regional business environment. Second, a well-developed infrastructure with an absence of trade barriers is needed. Various Asian sub-regions (e.g., Central and South Asia), however, suffer from a lack of infrastructure, which hinders trade opportunities. Difficulties in accessing capital also presents a key obstacle. In this regard, the role of infrastructure financing is very important. In the EU, their European Investment Bank maintains equitable financing for intra-EU projects. Open engagements with partner countries also play a key role. Third, over the past 30 years, different institutional mechanisms have sprung into existence in Europe that have created the basis for strategic economic integration. Such institutional mechanisms and initiatives are needed in Asia.

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Financing infrastructure investment through spillover tax revenue sharing: Evidence from some Asian countries

Yoshino N., Hossain M., Hendriyetty N., Lakhia S.

Bangladesh’s Macroeconomic Policy: Trends, Determinants and Impact （Bangladesh’s Macroeconomic Policy: Trends, Determinants and Impact） 217 - 238 2020年01月

ISSN 9789811512438

In the context of growing demand for infrastructure investment in Asian countries including Bangladesh to support higher growth, this chapter discusses various alternative approaches of financing investments. This chapter particularly focuses on the use of spillover tax revenue to attract more private investments in infrastructure. Sharing spillover revenue with private investors will raise the rate of return of the private investors and improve infrastructures to a great extent with less burden on the government’s fiscal budget. Therefore, this approach is expected to create a win-win situation for both the government and private investors. Solving land acquisition related disputes is another key aspect for successful implementation of infrastructure investment projects. Therefore, we propose to use land trust method for acquisition rather than direct acquisition from landowners in order to reduce the cost and minimize the delay in implementation of infrastructure projects. Some innovative financing aspects practiced in Japan and other countries are also discussed.

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Financing infrastructure using floating-interest-rate infrastructure bond

Yoshino Naoyuki, Azhgaliyeva Dina, Mishra Ranjeeta

JOURNAL OF INFRASTRUCTURE POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT （Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development） 4 （ 2 ） 306 - 315 2020年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 2572-7923

This paper proposes a floating-interest-rate infrastructure bond, where the interest of a government bond is paid to investors during the period of construction and the early period of operation. Unlike the usual government bond, which provides a fixed interest rate, the proposed floating-interest-rate infrastructure bond pays a floating interest, the rate of which depends on spillover tax revenues. Effective infrastructure projects have a positive effect on the economic growth of a region, known as the spillover effect. When user charges and the return from spillover tax revenues are below the fixed rate of the government bond, the interest rate will equal to the fixed rate of the government bond. In this case, investors in the infrastructure will receive interest on the government bond at the minimum rate. As the spillover effect of the infrastructure increases, the rate of return for infrastructure investment will become greater than the fixed rate of the government bond. The success of the floating-interest-rate infrastructure bond depends on the spillover effect and on transparency and accountability. Policy recommendations are provided in this paper on how to increase the spillover effect and improve transparency and accountability.

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A NOTE on POPULATION AGING and EFFECTIVENESS of FISCAL POLICY

Miyamoto H., Yoshino N.

Macroeconomic Dynamics （Macroeconomic Dynamics） 26 （ 6 ） 1679 - 1689 2020年

共著, ISSN 13651005

This paper examines how population aging affects the output effect of a government spending shock by using a panel data of OECD countries. The government spending shock is identified as a forecast error of government spending, and its output effect is estimated by using the local projection method. We find that population aging affects the output effect of the government spending shock. While in non-aging economies, government spending shock increases output significantly in both short- A nd medium-terms, in aging economies, output responses are not statistically significant.

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Sustainable solutions for green financing and investment in renewable energy projects

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N.

Energies （Energies） 13 （ 4 ） 788 - 788 2020年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1996-1073

The lack of long-term financing, the low rate of return, the existence of various risks, and the lack of capacity of market players are major challenges for the development of green energy projects. This paper aimed to highlight the challenges of green financing and investment in renewable energy projects and to provide practical solutions for filling the green financing gap. Practical solutions include increasing the role of public financial institutions and non-banking financial institutions (pension funds and insurance companies) in long-term green investments, utilizing the spillover tax to increase the rate of return of green projects, developing green credit guarantee schemes to reduce the credit risk, establishing community-based trust funds, and addressing green investment risks via financial and policy de-risking. The paper also provides a practical example of the implementation of the proposed tools.

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Social funding of green financing: An application of distributed ledger technologies

Yoshino N., Schloesser T., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

International Journal of Finance and Economics （International Journal of Finance and Economics） 26 （ 4 ） 6060 - 6073 2020年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 10769307

Technical developments in the sphere of distributed ledger technologies (DLTs) provide the opportunity to enhance existing tools of social funding. In a first step, we elaborate their application to the community-based hometown investment trust (HIT) fund, which provides financing for small-scale renewable energy projects. In a second step, we model the investment decision problem of households to illustrate through which channel the use of DLTs impacts the household's behaviour. Our model captures the return–risk trade-off between two forms of investments for households with different risk preferences. It reveals that the use of DLTs can mitigate the associated risk of an investment in a HIT fund causing more risk-averse households to change their investment behaviour. Although our theoretical analysis ascertains the potentials of DLTs to enhance social funding schemes, it also works out challenges for the establishment of DLT based funds.

Performance Differential between Private and State-owned Enterprises: An Analysis of Profitability and Solvency

Phi N.T.M., Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Tu C.A., Yoshino N., Kim C.J.

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade （Emerging Markets Finance and Trade） 57 （ 14 ） 3913 - 3928 2020年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1540496X

Motivated by the rise of state capitalism, the paper investigates the relationship between ownership identity and the performance of firms in terms of profitability and solvency. Using cross-sectional data covering over 25,000 firms worldwide and by employing various empirical methods, we find robust evidence that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) tend to be less profitable than private-owned enterprises. However, they appear to use debt for their financial need and are, thus, better leveraged. SOEs are also more labor-intensive and have higher labor costs. In addition, an improvement in institutional quality could benefit both SOEs and POEs. Thus, evidence from this study could be interpreted to mean that privatization could improve the performance of public firms; however, this process should come with several prior-privatization approaches. A study over a more extended period is needed before these results can be considered conclusive.

Spillover Capture Financing for Infrastructure Projects: Implications for Asia

Hyun Suk, Yoshino Naoyuki

INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING IN ASIA 83 - 111 2020年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, ISSN 978-981-12-1511-7

Exogeneity of world oil prices to the Russian Federation’s economy and monetary policy

Alekhina V., Yoshino N.

Eurasian Economic Review （Eurasian Economic Review） 9 （ 4 ） 531 - 555 2019年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1309422X

This research investigates the interrelationship between the Russian Federation’s main macroeconomic indicators, monetary policy and world oil prices using a vector autoregressive approach and monthly time-series data from January 1993 to December 2016. We selected the Russian Federation for this analysis because it is one of the largest oil exporting countries that is not a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its oil revenues account for a significant proportion of the country’s total export and budget revenues. We assume that oil prices are exogenously given to this country, despite being a large oil-exporter, and explain the oil price transition mechanisms to the Russian Federation’s economy from the export side and through the fiscal channel taking into account the monetary policy factor. The results suggest that the impact of the oil price fluctuations on the country’s gross domestic product, consumer price index inflation rate, interest rate, and exchange rate was more significant between 2000 and 2016 than between 1993 and 1999. To estimate the monetary policy rule for the Russian Federation, we test the modified Taylor equation and associated Taylor rule, including the oil price gap, since the latter may have a significant impact on the key policy rate. The evidence suggests that the Taylor rule describes the post-financial crisis monetary policy of the Russian Federation relatively well.

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Energy insecurity in Asia: A multi-dimensional analysis

Le T.H., Chang Y., Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N.

Economic Modelling （Economic Modelling） 83 84 - 95 2019年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 02649993

Energy insecurity has been a critical challenge facing Asia's economic growth. This study constructs a comprehensive index for energy insecurity as well as examines its trend using a sample of 24 selected Asian countries during the 1990–2014 period. For this purpose, principal component analysis is applied to a series of 12 selected variables. The variables are standardized using different techniques including z-score, min-max and softmax normalization. Three different measures of energy insecurity are created accordingly. The empirical results depict the trend of increasing energy insecurity in Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam. On the other hand, the trend of fluctuating but recently improving energy security was observed in Hong Kong, Japan, Mongolia, Singapore, South Korea, and United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, the trend of fluctuating but recently increasing energy insecurity was found in Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, and Tajikistan. These findings are robust to all three measures of energy insecurity.

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The way to induce private participation in green finance and investment

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N.

Finance Research Letters （Finance Research Letters） 31 98 - 103 2019年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 15446123

Establishment of green credit guarantee schemes (GCGSs)and returning a portion of the tax revenue originally generated from spillover effect of green energy supply to investors. It can reduce the risk of green finance and increase the rate of return of green energy projects, respectively. In addition, technical developments in the sphere of distributed ledger technologies provide the opportunity to increase the transparency in green finance and investments. This paper contributes to literature by proposing two applied frameworks, backed by theoretical models on green finance and investment based on projects size. The objective is to induce the private participation in green finance and investment.

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Trade linkages and transmission of oil price fluctuations

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Rasoulinezhad E., Chang Y.

Energy Policy （Energy Policy） 133 2019年10月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 03014215

This study is an attempt to ascertain how oil price shock can affect a trade-linked system via monetary variables. To this end, a simultaneous equation model (SEM) was applied through a Weighted Two Stage Least Squares (W2SLS) estimation method to different countries (21 cases) with business relations over the period from Q1 2000 to Q4 2015. In the case of oil-exporting countries—consisting of Iran, Russian Federation, UAE, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan—the findings revealed that they totally benefit from oil price increases. In the case of oil-importing countries, the effects are more diverse. To derive a better interpretation, we divided them into four groups: European Union (EU) members (Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Poland); East Asian nations (Japan; People's Republic of China; Republic of Korea; Viet Nam; Taipei China; Singapore; and Hong Kong, China); Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) (Ukraine and Belarus) and others (the United States, India, and Turkey). The results showed that all these countries importing oil face a negative supply shock, except Turkey which benefits directly from an oil price shock. Furthermore, the indirect effect coefficient received through trade for all these countries was positive.

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Optimal credit guarantee ratio for small and medium-sized enterprises’ financing: Evidence from Asia

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Economic Analysis and Policy （Economic Analysis and Policy） 62 342 - 356 2019年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 03135926

Difficulty in accessing finance is one of the critical factors constraining the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Given their importance for national economies, it is imperative to find ways to provide SMEs with stable finance. One efficient way to promote SME financing is through credit guarantee schemes, by which the government guarantees a portion (ratio) of a loan provided by a bank to a SME. Due to asymmetry of information between banks and SMEs, total loans to SMEs are smaller than the desired level of SME loan demand. Therefore, providing credit guarantees reduces information asymmetry between SME and banks, which increases the amount of loans to SMEs. The ultimate goal of the government is to provide a desired level of loans to SMEs by reducing information asymmetry. This research provides a theoretical model and an empirical analysis of factors that determine an optimal credit guarantee ratio. The ratio should be at such a level that it achieves the government's goal of minimizing banks’ nonperforming loans to SMEs, and at the same realize the government policy objective of supporting SMEs by reducing information asymmetry. Our results show that three factors determine the optimal credit guarantee ratio: (i) government policy, (ii) macroeconomic conditions, and (iii) the behavior of banks. To avoid moral hazard and ensure the stability of lending to SMEs, it is crucial for governments to set the optimal credit guarantee ratio based on macroeconomic conditions and vary it for each bank or each group of banks based on their soundness.

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Fair premium rate of the deposit insurance system based on banks’ creditworthiness

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Nili F.

Studies in Economics and Finance （Studies in Economics and Finance） 36 （ 1 ） 8 - 31 2019年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 10867376

Purpose: Deposit insurance is a key element in modern banking, as it guarantees the financial safety of deposits at depository financial institutions. It is necessary to have at least a dual fair premium rate system based on creditworthiness of financial institutions, as considering singular premium system for all banks will have moral hazard. This paper aims to develop theoretical and empirical model for calculating dual fair premium rates. Design/methodology/approach: The definition of a fair premium rate in this paper is a rate that covers the operational expenditures of the deposit insuring organization, provides it with sufficient funds to enable it to pay a certain percentage share of deposit amounts to depositors in case of bank default and provides it with sufficient funds as precautionary reserves. To identify and classify healthier and more stable banks, the authors use credit rating methods that use two major dimensional reduction techniques. For forecasting nonperforming loans (NPLs), the authors develop a model that can capture both macro shocks and idiosyncratic shocks to financial institutions in a vector error correction model. Findings: The response of NPLs/loans to macro shocks and idiosyncratic innovations shows that using a model with macro variables only is insufficient, as it is possible that under favorable economic conditions, some banks show negative performance due to bank level reasons such as mismanagement or vice versa. The final results show that deposit insurance premium rate needs to be vary based on banks’ creditworthiness. Originality/value: The results provide interesting insight for financial authorities to set fair deposit insurance premium rate. A high premium rate reduces the capital adequacy of individual financial institutions, which endangers the stability of the financial system; a low premium rate will reduce the security of the financial system.

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経済学者が読み解く現代社会のリアル(第16回)高齢化時代の新・マクロ経済論

吉野直行, 宮本弘曉

週刊東洋経済（東洋経済新報社）（ 6855 ） 88 - 89 2019年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 0918-5755

CiNii Research

Energy and Food Security: Linkages through Price Volatility

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Rasoulinezhad E., Yoshino N.

Energy Policy （Energy Policy） 128 796 - 806 2019年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 03014215

This study examines the linkages between energy price and food prices over the period 2000–2016 by using a Panel-VAR model in the case of eight Asian economies. Our results confirm that energy price (oil price) has a significant impact on food prices. According to the results of impulse response functions, agricultural food prices respond positively to any shock from oil prices. Our results show that there is a linkage between energy and food security through price volatility. Since inflation in oil price is harmful for food security, it would be necessary to diversify the energy consumption in this sector, from too much reliance on fossil fuels to an optimal combination of renewable and nonrenewable energy resources that will be in favor of not only the energy security by also the food security. In addition, the paper found that the impact of biofuel prices on food prices is statistically significant but explains less than 2% of the food price variance. However, by increasing the demand for biofuel, there should be more concern about the global increase in agricultural commodities prices and endangering food security, especially in vulnerable economies.

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