研究者詳細 - 吉野　直行

論文 - 吉野　直行

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Energy insecurity, renewable energy and economic growth

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Chang Y., Yoshino N., Morgan P.J.

Singapore Economic Review （Singapore Economic Review） 66 （ 2 ） 313 - 322 2021年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 02175908

Energy security, a multidimensional concept that encompasses the notion of resource availability, accessibility, environmental acceptability and cost affordability, has been widely discussed. However, the same cannot be said about energy insecurity, a concept that may not necessarily mirror energy security, but also comprises the various consequences of energy unavailability. Energy insecurity mostly affects the poorest and can lead to deepened inequalities and poor health at the household level. One solution for tackling energy insecurity could be adoption of renewable energy. Power generated from renewable sources could help in mitigating energy price fluctuations and reduce health issues, as well as encourage stable economic growth. This special issue discusses the interaction between the three concepts through careful case studies and panel analysis and proposes various policy implications for energy policymakers. This introductory paper introduces the articles selected for this special issue.

The energy-pollution-health nexus: A panel data analysis of low-and middle-income asian countries

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Rasoulinezhad E., Yoshino N., Chang Y., Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Morgan P.J.

Singapore Economic Review （Singapore Economic Review） 66 （ 2 ） 435 - 455 2021年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 02175908

Increased consumption of nonrenewable energy sources may lead to more air pollution, resulting in negative health impacts in a society. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between fossil fuel energy consumption and health issues using generalized method of moments estimation technique for data from 18 Asian countries (both low-and middle-income) over the period 1991-2018. The findings demonstrate that fossil fuel energy consumption increases the risk of lung and respiratory diseases. In addition, the results demonstrate the significant effect of CO 2 emissions and fossil fuel consumption on undernourishment and death rates. Furthermore, we find that increases in the gross domestic product per capita and healthcare expenditure may help reduce undernourishment and death ratio. The conclusion recommends that diversification of energy in low-and middle-income countries from too much reliance on fossil fuels to more renewable energy sources can improve energy insecurity, at the same time reduce greenhouse gas emissions and minimize the negative impacts on human health.

Quality infrastructure and natural disaster resiliency: A panel analysis of Asia and the Pacific

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Sarker T., Yoshino N., Mortha A., Vo X.V.

Economic Analysis and Policy （Economic Analysis and Policy） 69 394 - 406 2021年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, ISSN 03135926

In this study, we assess the impact of quality infrastructure, development, and corruption on damage caused by a natural disaster using panel data from 14 Asia and the Pacific countries for 2007–2017. Employing the generalized method of moments and vector error correction model, this study's main contribution to the literature lies in the quantification of the role of quality infrastructure in disaster impact mitigation. The empirical results prove that even if disaster intensity remains the most important factor in explaining damage, this effect is short-lived. At the same time, quality infrastructure significantly reduces damage in the long-term and is the variable with the largest magnitude. A higher level of development indicators, measured by gross domestic product per capita, and control of corruption, are also shown to reduce damage linked to natural disasters. Our study suggests that improving the quality of infrastructure can be effective in mitigating the impact of disasters. We also propose financial schemes such as public–private cooperation and innovative schemes to promote the construction of quality infrastructure.

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Optimal branching strategy, local financial development, and SMEs’ performance

Hossain M., Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Economic Modelling （Economic Modelling） 96 421 - 432 2021年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 02649993

This paper examines whether and to what extent development of the local-level financial sector improves SMEs’ performances. While only a handful of studies examines the relationship between local financial development and firm growth, no theoretical basis has been provided in those studies to understand transmission channels and instruments through which local financial development works in favor of firm growth. This paper attempts to fill that gap. In a theoretical framework, this paper shows that an optimal number of bank branches in an area works as an instrument of the transmission channel from financial development to growth, which helps reduce excess liquidity and increase SMEs’ access to bank credit by creating links between the demand and supply of liquidity. Banks default credit risk and cost of branch expansion determine the optimal number of branches in an area: a higher number of branches will reduce asymmetry of information about borrowers and monitoring costs, leading to lower default risks. Using new firm-level survey data of 1084 SME manufacturing firms from Bangladesh, our empirical analysis suggests that there is a threshold level of bank branches that can improve SME performance at the sub-district level. Our findings highlight the importance of potential returns to an optimal branching strategy of banks at the sub-national level that will lead to inclusive finance and growth within a country.

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The efficacy of a third-generation oncolytic herpes simplex viral therapy for an HPV-related uterine cervical cancer model.

Kagabu M, Yoshino N, Saito T, Miura Y, Takeshita R, Murakami K, Kawamura H, Baba T, Sugiyama T

International journal of clinical oncology 26 （ 3 ） 591 - 597 2021年03月

共著, ISSN 1341-9625

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財政赤字の安定化条件「ドーマー条件」の再考察—特集人口高齢化のもとでの財政金融政策の有効性

吉野直行, 宮本弘曉

フィナンシャル・レビュー / 財務省財務総合政策研究所編（財務省財務総合政策研究所） 2021 （ 2 ） 4 - 14 2021年03月

共著, ISSN 0912-5892

高齢化のもとでの財政金融政策の有効性低下と雇用体系の構造改革

吉野直行, 宮本弘暁, 高野佳佑

立命館国際研究 = Ritsumeikan kokusai kenkyu / The Ritsumeikan journal of international studies （立命館大学国際関係学会） 33 （ 4 ） 89 - 101 2021年03月

共著, ISSN 0915-2008

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高齢化が財政政策の効果に与える影響—特集人口高齢化のもとでの財政金融政策の有効性

宮本弘曉, 吉野直行

フィナンシャル・レビュー / 財務省財務総合政策研究所編（財務省財務総合政策研究所） 2021 （ 2 ） 49 - 67 2021年03月

共著, ISSN 0912-5892

A model for calculating optimal credit guarantee fee for small and medium-sized enterprises

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Fukuda L., Rasoulinezhad E.

Economic Modelling （Economic Modelling） 95 361 - 373 2021年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 02649993

A credit guarantee scheme is a method for promoting lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by formal financial institutions. It reduces information asymmetry and SMEs’ collateral burden, but at a cost of a credit guarantee fee. The paper provides a theoretical model for calculating the optimal credit guarantee fee. In the empirical part, this study examines whether selected macroeconomic variables and financial health of SMEs have a statistically significant impact on default risk ratio of loans to SMEs – the main determinant of the fee. Principle component analysis (PCA) and two vector error correction model (VECM) models are applied on a sample of 1363 SMEs. Empirical results support our hypothesis that the credit guarantee fee should be different for sound and risky SMEs in order to avoid moral hazard, but also according to the macroeconomic state.

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Default risks, moral hazard and market-based solution: Evidence from renewable energy market in Bangladesh

Hossain M., Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Economic Modelling （Economic Modelling） 95 489 - 499 2021年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 02649993

This paper analyzes a unique case of default risks associated with a solar homes program in Bangladesh, implemented by the Infrastructure Development Company Limited (IDCOL). Out of 4.3 million solar homes adopter households, about 1.2 million households became default in paying their due payment of the solar home system. We explain the behavior of the customers in a hyperbolic discounting framework where various shocks increase the risks of default. Further we extend the model to explain moral hazard problem under the refinancing program structure in the absence of an optimal contract. For empirical analysis, we apply the Cox's proportional hazard model to study the factors responsible for default and instantaneous hazard rates. Using primary survey data from 1300 households, we find that various exogenous shocks and financial constraints can explain the default situation of the customers along with a portion of the default customers being adversely selected in the context of moral hazard problem, which is consistent with the prediction of our theoretical model. We propose a market-based solution to the problem by withdrawing subsidies from the program.

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Covid-19 and Optimal Portfolio Selection for Investment in Sustainable Development Goals

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Otsuka M.

Finance Research Letters （Finance Research Letters） 38 101695 2021年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 15446123

The Covid-19 pandemic and global economic recession has shrunk global energy demand and collapsed fossil fuel prices. Therefore, renewable energy projects are losing their competitiveness. This endangers the achievement of several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Various consulting companies define the SDGs differently. Institutional investors hire consulting companies and allocate their investment based on the consultants’ suggestions. This paper theoretically shows that the current allocation of investors by considering SDG based on various consulting companies will lead to distortion in the investment portfolio. The desired portfolio allocation can be achieved by taxing pollution and waste such as CO , NO , and plastics, globally with the same tax rate. Global taxation on pollution will lead to the desired portfolio allocation of assets. 2 x

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The necessity of financial inclusion for enhancing the economic impacts of remittances

Chuc A.T., Li W., Phi N.T.M., Le Q.T., Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Borsa Istanbul Review （Borsa Istanbul Review） 22 （ 1 ） 47 - 56 2021年

共著, ISSN 22148450

International remittances by immigrants to their home countries is key in the funding development in migrant-sending countries. This study investigates the combined impact of international remittance inflows and financial inclusion on economic growth using a sample of 60 low- and middle-income countries over 1996–2017. The study constructs a composite financial inclusion index using principal component analysis. The results show that financial inclusion could strengthen the growth-enhancing effect of remittances. Thus, the study helps explain the development dilemma of remittance inflows and financial inclusion in migrant-sending countries to boost their economic growth.

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ESG/Green investment and allocation of portfolio assets

Yoshino N., Yuyama T.

Estudios de Economia Aplicada （Estudios de Economia Aplicada） 39 （ 3 ） 1 - 16 2021年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, ISSN 11333197

This article examines the current portfolio allocation in ESG and Green projects. Traditional investments focus on rates of return and risks associated with investment. Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) or Green factors are additional components that investors have to pay attention to. Environmental protection is very important. However, we see that the current different definitions of ESG or Green factors lead to distorted allocations in portfolio investments. In order to bring portfolio allocations to a desirable direction, global taxation on pollution or creation of an accurate Green credit rating based on emissions of various pollutants are recommended.

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Unconventional monetary policy and income disparity in an aging society

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Rasoulinezhad E.

Journal of Economic Policy Reform （Journal of Economic Policy Reform） 25 （ 4 ） 451 - 470 2021年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, ISSN 17487870

The main objective of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy is inflation targeting; however, it may be associated with the recently increased income disparity in Japan. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimation model, this study conducted in the context of an aging society revealed that the bank’s monetary policy increased income inequality through increased financial asset prices, resulting in a widening of the income gap. We also find that in the long run, the aging population will increase income disparity in Japan; however, tax policy will partially mitigate the adverse effect on income inequality. Unconventional monetary policy will not bring a desirable result for the Japanese economy and the nation as a whole. In addition, the government needs to revise the incremental tax system so that wealthier groups pay more tax than before. In addition, expanding the tax system by adopting the carbon taxation scheme would be beneficial. The government with this kind of tax can pursue two major goals: reducing poverty and environmental pollution, which are ongoing challenges in Japan.

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KNOWING THE UNKNOWNS - FRESH INSIGHTS FROM AN UNKNOWN STOCK MARKET

Sharma S.S., Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F.

Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan （Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan） 24 （ 4 ） 641 - 658 2021年

共著, ISSN 14108046

The goal of our study is to examine the impact of natural disasters on the South Pacific Stock Exchange. We use daily time-series data for Fiji's stock market for the period 2000-2019. Our empirical framework is based on three factor regression models, namely the market model, the Fama and French three-factor model, and the Fama and French five-factor model. We find evidence that natural disasters in Fiji reduce abnormal returns in the most relevant five-factor model. Additionally, we provide evidence that different types of natural disasters have heterogeneous effects on Fiji's stock market. Our findings are further supported by a robustness check.

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Introduction: Investment in Startups and Small Business Financing

Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Naoyuki Yoshino, Chul Ju Kim, Peter J. Morgan, Daehee Yoon

World Scientific Series in Finance 17 IX - XVII 2021年

共著, ISSN 2010-1082

財政安定化条件ドーマー条件の再考察 : 国債市場の需給からの新条件の導出—Rethinking of Fiscal Sustainability Condition : Revised Domar Condition based on Supply and Demand for Government Bond

吉野直行, 宮本弘暁

ファイナンシャル・プランニング研究 / 日本FP学会「ファイナンシャル・プランニング研究」編集委員会編（日本FP学会） 21 21 - 25 2021年

共著, ISSN 1346-5112

Internal and external determinants of housing price boom in Hong Kong

Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Yoshino N., Mortha A., Chiu A., Naderi N.

Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan （Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan） 23 （ 4 ） 597 - 620 2020年12月

共著, ISSN 14108046

Hong Kong's housing market witnessed a dramatic housing price appreciation in recent years, with the price index for private domestic housing units being three times higher than ten years ago. This trend is supported by both internal and external factors, as illustrated in this paper. By developing a theoretical model and an empirical analysis on the key variables influencing housing prices using monthly data from 1999 to 2018, we find that the main drivers of housing price appreciation are from the demand side and include income level, money supply and inflation. The main contribution of this study is the quantification of the role of Mainland China's macroeconomic factors in housing price booms in Hong Kong. Our study shows that capital inflow from and inflation and recessions in Mainland China contribute to increasing housing prices in Hong Kong because the city's real estate is seen as a way to preserve asset value. These findings call for the need for control of capital inflow between the two economies as well as for stricter regulations against empty houses in Hong Kong.

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The COVID-19 Crisis: Policy Recommendations for Japan

Yoshino N., Hendriyetty N.

Economists' Voice （Economists' Voice） 17 （ 1 ） 1 - 9 2020年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 1553-3832

Japan economy is dominated by Small and Medium enterprises. It covers around 99.7% of all enterprises operated in Japan and employs around 70% of the working population and account for a large portion of economic output. But, like other SMEs in the world, they also the ones that have hardly hit by COVID-19 quarantine and business closures. Japanese government made emergency loans and credit guarantee to assist SMEs. However, moral hazard problems of banks and SMEs have to be remedied. In the capital market, many investors take risk-averse behavior to anticipate further measures. Infrastructure investments are most needed in Asian region yet finance for infrastructure investments would face with shortage of funds due to low rate of return and risks. Private financing by long term investors such as pension funds and insurance better be directed to support infrastructure investment. Spillover tax revenues could be partly directed to increase the rate of return. The Japanese economy faces with aging population which would widen fiscal deficits unless postponement of retirement age and productivity-based wage rate rather than seniority wage rate facing with this crisis. Therefore, Japan government need to look into innovative policies options for sustainable economic growth.

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Determinants of international remittance inflow in Asia-Pacific middle-income countries

Yoshino N., Taghizadeh-Hesary F., Otsuka M.

Economic Analysis and Policy （Economic Analysis and Policy） 68 29 - 43 2020年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り, ISSN 03135926

The international remittances by immigrants to their home countries is one of the key sources of funding development in middle-income countries, especially in migrant-sending countries. This study assesses the determinants of international remittances using panel data from 22 Asia-Pacific middle-income countries, most of which are well-known migrant-sending countries, using the generalized method of moments (GMM) method. The results show that the gap in the per capita GDP growth rate between origin and destination countries, gross enrollment ratio of secondary education, and trade openness are positively associated with remittance inflow. On the other hand, net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows are negatively correlated with remittance inflows. The results of this study can be interpreted as a paradigm shift for acquiring foreign capital in middle-income countries, from remittances in earlier stages of development to more FDI inflows when the country has the pre-requisites for absorbing foreign capital. The remittance inflows should be highly important, especially in the early stage of economic development, as additional incomes, or investment sources for those who live in middle-income countries.

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