Details of a Researcher

Reviews, Commentaries, etc. - NOMURA Koji

Division display 41 - 60 of about 206 ／ All the affair displays >>

"Fruits Without Roots" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun) 2025.02

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

"Provisional Framework of Bhutan Sectoral Integration and Transformation Economic Model"

Koji Nomura

(United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific) 2024.12

Internal/External technical report, pre-print, etc., Single Work

This document presents the provisional framework of the Bhutan Sectoral Integration and Transformation Economic Model (ITEM2025), developed through a joint research initiative between the Royal Government of Bhutan's Ministry of Finance and Keio Economic Observatory at Keio University, funded by UNESCAP. ITEM2025 is designed to project Bhutan's economic structure for 2029 — the final year of the 13th Five Year Plan — with two primary policy goals: doubling per capita real GDP and quadrupling the income of the bottom 40% relative to 2022 levels. The model is built upon a highly disaggregated Augmented Input-Output Table (AIOT) encompassing 302 products/industries, 462 labor categories, 46 asset types, and 60 trading partner countries. Policy evaluation proceeds in three stages: Business as Usual baseline, individual assessment of 196 policy scenarios, and comprehensive general equilibrium analysis. The framework integrates detailed income distribution data to track structural transformation and its distributional effects across socio-demographic groups.

"Ghosts of Pseudoscience" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun) 2024.12

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

"Energy and Economy: Bridging Engineering Solutions and Social Issues" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

AICE Seminar Series (The Research association of Automotive Internal Combustion Engines) 2024.11

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

"The Light and Shadow of Empiricism" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun) 2024.11

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

”Japan and Germany's “Subsidy-Drenched” Policies - The Japanese Media's Obedience to Government-Private Sector Policy Coordination” (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Energy Policy Report (Energy Forum Inc.) 2024.10

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

I was struck by the appearance in the Nikkei Shimbun this past September of an article titled "Decarbonization: Action Over Argument." A posture that demands action while dismissing the need for economic reasoning is not the role one should expect of the media. Decarbonization technologies remain expensive, and as long as no institutional framework exists to ensure that major nations compete on a level playing field in bearing the costs of emissions reduction, "action over argument" risks inflicting serious damage on the economy and society. The risks are already materializing. Energy-intensive industries in Japan and Germany have experienced a rapid production decline of as much as 20% in the years since their post-pandemic recovery. China, by contrast, has expanded production by more than 20%. It is the divergence in competitive conditions driven by differing energy policies across nations, and the gap between domestic and international energy prices, that has brought about the decline of Japan and Germany and the rise of China — a dynamic that has in fact led to an increase in global CO2 emissions. While the expansion of profits in Japan's steel industry owes much to the external windfall of a historically weak yen, Japanese companies have tended to underestimate that good fortune, and with little sense of urgency, are pressing ahead with decarbonization policies. The concept of the "wicked problem," first categorized half a century ago, describes challenges for which it is extraordinarily difficult to approach a solution, and where a remedy believed to be correct may prove counterproductive. Contemporary decarbonization is a textbook example. When confronting problems of this nature, the media and researchers must grasp how policies are reshaping the economic and social landscape, and must never stop questioning the legitimacy of the policy instruments being employed. Professor Takenori Inoki once observed that Japan's media had long been inclined to "avoid analyzing and debating highly sophisticated and complex issues," and presciently warned that this tendency "becomes particularly problematic when internationally contested disputes arise." In the author's experience, the media have moved beyond merely avoiding analytical debate on the complex issue of decarbonization to actively avoiding engagement with its underlying economic logic altogether. Clemens Fuest, chief economist at Germany's Die Welt, has argued that the spiral of interventions by Federal Economy Minister Habeck has done nothing to produce a "green economic miracle" and has continued to weaken the German economy. He criticized a system in which, rather than the most innovative companies being recognized in the marketplace, it is those with the most effective lobbying that win subsidies and support — warning that such a path would send "Germany plummeting into an industrial museum." Japan's steel industry, too, while well aware of the difficulties of decarbonization, appears to have increasingly engaged in activity that closely resembles sophisticated lobbying. The government, for its part, dispenses large subsidies while staging the appearance of on-track domestic emissions reductions and a successful green transformation — indefinitely shelving industrial hollowing-out as a perennial concern to be revisited later. This collective shortsightedness — in which government and industry move in lockstep while the media offers uncritical acquiescence — will delay the necessary course correction and allow long-term economic damage to compound to an enormous scale.

"Coal-fueled Stove" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun) 2024.10

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

Improving Energy Productivity”, Approaches to the Realities (Part I) (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

PwC Dialogue Column 2024.08

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

具体的な数値を伴ったデータが“エビデンス”として示されると、示された側は、それを疑うことなしに受け入れがちです。しかし、その内容や、一緒に伝えられた解釈は本当に“正しい”ものなのでしょうか。ゲストにお招きした慶應義塾大学産業研究所所長の野村浩二教授は、「“エビデンス”を健全に疑う」姿勢が大切だと指摘します。専門分野の1つである「エネルギー生産性の改善をどう捉えるか」というテーマの対談を通じて、その作法の一端を披露していただきました。聞き手はPwCコンサルティングの片岡剛士チーフエコノミスト、モデレーターはPwCコンサルティングのシニアエコノミスト伊藤篤が務めました。

Improving Energy Productivity”, Approaches to the Realities (Part II) (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

PwC Dialogue Column 2024.08

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

「エネルギー生産性の改善をどう捉えるか」をテーマに、慶應義塾大学産業研究所所長の野村浩二教授をゲストに迎えた対談の後編です。前編で野村教授は、規制などを通じた過度な省エネを推進すると、国内の産業空洞化を招く可能性に言及し、それが既に起こり始めていると指摘しました。後半では、鉄鋼業で実際に起きている現象をベースに、経済成長とエネルギー改善の在り方について、より視野を広げて考えます。また、政府の統計について深い知見を有する野村教授に、政策立案の潮流となっているEBPM（エビデンス・ベースト・ポリシー・メイキング＝証拠に基づく政策立案）の導入に伴い、統計作成の現場で起きている変化についても伺いました。

" 'Kodama' and 'Nozomi' " (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun) 2024.08

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

"Japanese-German Decline in Energy-Intensive Industries and Chinese Expansion" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

(International Environment and Economy Institute) 2024.07

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

”China's "New Three" Overproduction: Will Big Government Industrial Policy Collapse?” (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Energy Policy Report (Energy Forum Inc.) 2024.07

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

The world is watching closely as China's economic growth slows. The growth rate shown in official statistics reflects only a modest deceleration of roughly one percentage point annually compared to the pre-pandemic period, but the inventory adjustment in the real estate market is considerably more severe. Revenue from land-use rights sales, which had underpinned approximately 40% of local government income, has declined amid the slump in the property market, placing mounting pressure on public finances. Secondhand housing prices fell more than 10% between mid-2021 and end-2023, and the success or failure of the government's efforts to stem the bleeding is being closely watched. To compensate for weak domestic demand with external demand, the Chinese economy has launched into aggressive price competition, sharply cutting export prices. China's greatest hopes are pinned on what are called the "New Three" — solar cells, lithium-ion batteries, and electric vehicles — which by end-2023 had grown to account for nearly half the export value of the old "Big Three" (home appliances, furniture, and apparel). When excessive price competition rooted in China's overcapacity began to take hold, it was government-created demand in advanced economies — driven by deliberate policy choices — that came to the rescue of Chinese producers. Back in 2012, Japan's Feed-in Tariff (FIT) law played that role. At the time, proponents of renewable energy promotion in Japan argued that the policy would nurture domestic industry and drive down prices; instead, the domestic content rate collapsed and import prices rose by roughly 20%. This served as a lifeline for Chinese manufacturers, with losses incurred through fierce price competition later recouped after competitors withdrew from the market. The Netherlands also became a savior by rapidly expanding its solar power share to 14% by 2022, but that feast came to an end by late 2023, and solar cell export values have since fallen to half their peak. Tokyo is reportedly set to introduce mandatory residential solar panel installation from next fiscal year, but with human rights concerns surrounding Chinese production now attracting international scrutiny, a savior may not appear again. Since the pandemic, China has rapidly expanded exports of lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles. In May of this year, the Biden administration announced a 100% tariff on EVs imported from China, and in June the European Commission indicated it would impose additional tariffs of 17.4–38.1% on top of the standard 10% automotive tariff. For Chinese companies that had been pressing hard on the accelerator over the past few years, this sudden braking by the West will come as a severe blow. If the world tolerates the costs of protectionism for some time, it is China whose growth model faces collapse. What sustained China's remarkable rise over the past quarter century as the world's factory was the pursuit, in Europe and Japan, of an apparent decoupling of economic growth from CO2 emissions. This approach in fact led to an increase in global CO2 emissions, yet decarbonization policies accelerated without reflection, continuously placing green demand before Chinese government and enterprises. Should what had seemed a highly predictable opportunity prove to be a mirage, excess assets in manufacturing — on top of those in real estate — would become pronounced, and the growth model that has defined the past twenty-five years would suffer devastating damage.

"Quiet Industrial Decline" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun) 2024.07

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

"GX (Green Transformation) and the Japanese Economy in 2040" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

SBI-FERI Report (SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute) 2024.06

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

"Independent Energy Strategy by Non-Governmental Experts (4th Edition)" (in Japanese)

Taishi Sugiyama, Koji Nomura, Yoshioaki Oka, Tomohiko Okano, Koko Kato, Naoki Toda, Haruhisa Nakazawa, Tsuruhiko Nambu, Koji Hirai, Satoshi Matsuda, Ryuzo Yamamoto, Masami Kojima, Tetsuo Sawada, Hiroshi Tanaka, Yoshihiro Muronaka, Masayuki Yamaguchi, and Tadashi Watanabe

2024.06

Internal/External technical report, pre-print, etc., Joint Work

This policy proposal was formulated by a non-governmental group of researchers and practitioners who share a common concern that Japan's current decarbonization-centric energy policy is structurally undermining the nation's security foundations and economic growth. As 2024 marks the year in which Japan's 7th Strategic Energy Plan is to be formulated, the proposal warns that the government's drive to further intensify decarbonization under the banner of GX (Green Transformation) — without evidence-based justification — risks compounding existing policy failures. Advancing "Energy Dominance," defined as the abundant, stable, and affordable supply of energy, as its guiding principle, this non-governmental proposal offers a comprehensive alternative to the official planning process.
The fourth edition incorporates updated figures and expanded analysis reflecting the latest domestic and international developments as of May–June 2024. On the international EV policy front, the edition details the plateauing of EV sales in North American and European markets, the wave of production adjustments by major Western automakers, survey data showing that 85% of global consumers still prefer internal combustion engine vehicles, and the surging worldwide demand for hybrid vehicles in which Japan holds a decisive competitive advantage. On the domestic energy cost front, updated statistics illustrate that the cumulative burden of renewable energy surcharges and GX-related levies on households and industry remains at elevated levels in 2024, with no meaningful relief in sight.
The proposal is organized around eleven policy recommendations. First, electricity prices should be restored to pre-Great East Japan Earthquake levels (¥14/kWh for industry; ¥21/kWh for households), accompanied by the abolition or reduction of energy taxes and surcharges. Second, nuclear power's share of total generation should be raised to 50% at the earliest opportunity through restarts, life extensions, and new construction. Third, the stable use of fossil fuels must not be impeded by CO₂ regulations. Fourth, the large-scale deployment of solar power — beset by human rights concerns, poor economics, and disaster safety risks — should be halted immediately. Fifth, the premature promotion of EVs, which threatens Japan's automotive industry as a pillar of the national economy, should not be adopted as policy. Items six through ten call for prioritizing cost reduction over accelerated deployment of fossil-fuel alternatives, abolishing excessive energy-efficiency regulations, returning the electricity sector to a vertically integrated structure, reinforcing energy stockpiling and infrastructure defense, and eliminating CO₂ aggregate emission targets and sector-level allocation.
The electricity system reform sections introduced in the third edition (Section II.8), including "II.8.1. Pre-Earthquake Electric Power System Reform" and "II.8.2. Post-Earthquake Electric Power System Reform," are further developed with reference to the latest statistical evidence, deepening the analysis of how vertical unbundling has eliminated long-term supply obligations and structurally suppressed investment. On the international front, the proposal advocates withdrawal from the Paris Agreement — judged to be deadlocked by unachievable targets and a North-South divide — and calls for the establishment of a Japan-U.S.-led "Energy Dominance Agreement." By maintaining the stable utilization of fossil fuels free from binding aggregate emissions constraints, the proposal argues that Japan can avert industrial hollowing-out and pursue the fundamental policy transformation necessary to rebuild a resilient and prosperous national economy.

"Growing Adoption Rates of ICT Have Counterbalanced the Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies"

Mun S. Ho, Koji Nomura, and Jon D. Samuels

VoxEU 2024.06

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Joint Work

This column by Ho, Nomura, and Samuels examines the industry-level sources of economic growth in the US and Japan from 1955 to 2019 using detailed growth accounting. Two key findings emerge. First, the slowdown in TFP growth within the computer sector — which includes semiconductors and communications equipment — accounts for a substantial portion of the aggregate productivity deceleration in both countries since the mid-2000s, despite the sector representing less than 2.3% of total value added. Second, and more novel, productivity gains in ICT reduce the cost of ICT capital across all industries that adopt it. This "cost-of-capital" effect has grown steadily since the mid-1990s, partially offsetting the direct productivity slowdown. As ICT adoption spreads far more widely than ICT production, the aggregate economic gains from diffusion may already outpace standard measured contributions of ICT to productivity growth.

"How to Evaluate Industry Competitiveness?" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun) 2024.06

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

"The Seventh Basic Energy Plan by non-governmental volunteers (3rd-a Edition)" (in Japanese)

Taishi Sugiyama, Koji Nomura, Yoshioaki Oka, Tomohiko Okano, Koko Kato, Naoki Toda, Haruhisa Nakazawa, Tsuruhiko Nambu, Koji Hirai, Ryuzo Yamamoto, Masami Kojima, Tetsuo Sawada, Hiroshi Tanaka, Yoshihiro Muronaka, Masayuki Yamaguchi, and Tadashi Watanabe

2024.05

Internal/External technical report, pre-print, etc., Joint Work

"Recommendation for Non-Division of Labor" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun) 2024.04

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

”GX Strategy Treading on Thin Ice” (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Energy Policy Report (Energy Forum Inc.) 2024.04

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

The Green Recovery, heralded as the path to economic revival from the pandemic, has yielded hollow results. Energy consumption that fell during lockdowns recovered to pre-pandemic levels within roughly a year in the United States and South Korea, and in China it returned to its prior growth trajectory within just a few months. Energy transition is a long-term process requiring structural transformation of the economy, and it was entirely foreseeable that demanding unnecessary pain during a period of severe recovery would prove untenable. On the path toward energy transition, no country can sustain policies that cause energy prices to surge or undermine stable supply through the cost increases and regulations that the transition entails. The concern is significant precisely because energy transition is not underpinned by genuine "real demand." Even where some private companies seek to identify growth opportunities, every one of those opportunities depends on "government-created demand" manufactured by policy. With EVs, as that policy support has faded, what is emerging is the considerably leaner reality of actual underlying demand. Beyond the difficulty of realizing policies unsupported by real demand, the coherence between ends and means must also be interrogated. Under the current international framework — the Paris Agreement — which leaves enormous variation across countries, the efforts of advanced economies are more likely than not to prove counterproductive for global emissions reduction. Carbon leakage, whereby production simply shifts to China, India, and ASEAN nations with lower reduction targets, causing global emissions to increase rather than fall, is not a theoretical possibility but a robust empirical reality observed across the quarter century since the Kyoto conference. Japan's GX (Green Transformation) is a several-fold inflation of the fantasy of achieving green growth through a 25% emissions reduction that was once promoted under the Democratic Party administration — the largest policy folly in postwar Japanese economic history, constructed without technological or economic evidence. Policymakers have been absorbed in mapping a path toward energy transition through cost-minimization modeling, yet the shape of the "minimized" cost increases is never actually shown, and what is offered is pseudo-evidence that averts its gaze from the very feasibility of the exercise. The question that truly needs to be asked is not how to minimize costs subject to emissions constraints while holding output constant, but rather how the constraint of transition itself affects production. Over the past thirty years, the Japanese economy has fallen far behind the U.S. economy in terms of economic efficiency. To follow the United States even in turns when it is pursuing inefficient resource allocation would be nothing short of negligence. In the author's view, the further pursuit of inefficient policies in Germany and Japan — particularly in energy-intensive industries — is likely to exert a substantial effect in drawing production back to the United States, and this dynamic risks causing the U.S. to overestimate the policy effects of the IRA. Like a silken cord slowly tightening around the throat, the harms of GX are difficult to see. Along that path, close attention should be paid to indicators that can be observed continuously and in near real time and that are comparable across major economies. At the end of March this year, we published an Energy Cost Monitoring (ECM) report providing preliminary estimates of the real energy cost burden across eight countries: Japan, the United States, China, South Korea, Germany, Italy, France, and the United Kingdom. Going forward, we intend to build an evidence base that captures both the international disparity in real cost burdens and the latest production trends in energy-intensive industries — which serve as a litmus test for the harmful effects of policy.

　 Previous page - Next page 　