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Reviews, Commentaries, etc. - NOMURA Koji

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"Distorted Market" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun) 2025.09

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

”The U.S. CO₂ Endangerment Finding Reconsidered and Implications for Japan’s Energy Policy” (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Energy Policy Report (Energy Forum Inc.) ( 2153 ) 2025.09

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has begun moving to rescind the Endangerment Finding (EF), which has classified CO2 as a pollutant under the Clean Air Act. A framework that has defined CO2 as an air pollutant for 16 years since its establishment under the Obama administration is now having its scientific foundations directly challenged under the second Trump administration. EPA Administrator Zeldin emphasized that eliminating the EF would remove what he called a "hidden tax burden" exceeding one trillion dollars on businesses and households. U.S. electricity generation relied on coal-fired power for nearly half its supply in the late 2000s, but that share has since fallen to roughly 16%. This decline reflects the enhanced competitiveness of natural gas driven by the shale gas revolution, the expansion of renewables, and constraints on new coal plant construction imposed by the EF. The decline in power generation demand — which had accounted for 90% of U.S. coal consumption — has substantially depressed domestic coal prices. Transportation bottlenecks from inland producing regions to coastal export terminals have prevented that coal from being redirected to export markets, causing it to accumulate domestically and widening the gap between domestic and international prices. Should the rescission of the EF invalidate the conditions previously required for the construction and operation of coal-fired power plants, coal could become cost-competitive with gas-fired generation and may even hold an advantage in certain regions. As demand expands from data centers — whose growth is already accelerating — and from manufacturing reshoring to the United States, coal-fired power could be reassessed as a viable option. Japan has conditioned the continued operation of coal-fired plants on high efficiency standards and the implementation of CCS, hydrogen co-firing, and ammonia co-firing, as it seeks to reconcile its international commitments under the Paris Agreement with domestic energy policy. Price differentials relative to hydrogen and other alternatives are expected to be subsidized for a certain period, but it remains unclear who will bear that cost — and most citizens are likely unaware of the cost increases promised to arrive in two years. The effective electricity price gap between Japan and the United States currently stands at approximately 2:1, widening to 2.2:1 across total final energy consumption (FEC). If Japan maintains its current policies and imposes additional burdens on coal-consuming industries, while the United States eliminates CO2 compliance costs for coal-fired generation and coal's share of power generation recovers by five percentage points, the price gap would exceed 2.3:1 for electricity and 2.8:1 for FEC. Under such pricing conditions, industrial hollowing-out in Japan would become increasingly difficult to avoid. The Japanese government has positioned the "3E+S" framework as the foundation of its energy policy, yet has placed excessive weight on CO2 emissions reduction while giving insufficient consideration to economic viability. The narrative that "failure to decarbonize will lead to a loss of competitiveness" is widely repeated, but the gap with reality is substantial. Openly debating and executing a policy shift — as the United States is doing — would entail significant political costs in Japan. Nevertheless, at a minimum, suspending current regulations on coal-fired power would represent a rational course of action. With the consumer price index rising more than 3% year-on-year, deferring decarbonization could be expected to deliver a suppressive effect of roughly one percentage point on inflation over the medium to long term.

"Asia–Japan Growth Co-Creation: Challenges of Productivity Enhancement and Institutional Responsiveness" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

SBI-FERI Report (SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute) 2025.09

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work, Lead author

Since the early 21st century, Asian economies have sustained high growth, while Japan has remained in a prolonged low-growth phase. This report discusses long-term productivity improvements across Asia and the institutional vulnerabilities revealed during the pandemic. For South and Southeast Asian economies with high growth potential, building institutional foundations will be essential to make use of the demographic dividend over the next 15–25 years. The expanding income effect presents Japan with a valuable opportunity for renewed growth. Growth co-creation will be achieved not through abstract frameworks, but through strengthened institutional responsiveness.

"Independent Energy Strategy by Non-Governmental Experts, 6th Edition" (in Japanese)

Taishi Sugiyama, Koji Nomura, Yoshioaki Oka, Tomohiko Okano, Koko Kato, Naoki Tatsumi, Hiroshi Tanaka, Naoki Toda, Haruhisa Nakazawa, Tsuruhiko Nambu, Koji Hirai, Satoshi Matsuda, Hitoshi Yakushiin, Ryuzo Yamamoto, Masami Kojima, Tetsuo Sawada, Yoshihiro Muronaka, Masayuki Yamaguchi, and Tadashi Watanabe

2025.09

Internal/External technical report, pre-print, etc., Joint Work

"Productivity Dynamics in the Maldives, 1970–2023: Evidence from SAARC and Fiji Comparisons"

Koji Nomura

(United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific) 2025.08

Lecture material (seminar, tutorial, course, lecture, etc.), Single Work

This study examines productivity dynamics in the Maldives from 1970 to 2023 in comparison with SAARC countries and Fiji. Strong TFP growth in the late 1980s was followed by investment-led growth with negative TFP in the 1990s–2000s. Since the 2010s, TFP growth has stagnated near zero, while labor quality has ceased to improve. Despite relatively high per capita GDP, the Maldives shows weak labor productivity performance—above Afghanistan but below Nepal and Pakistan. The economy remains highly vulnerable to external shocks such as the 2005 tsunami, the 2009 global financial crisis, and the 2020 pandemic.

"Exit and Voice" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun) 2025.08

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

［時評・ウェーブ］「離脱と発言」（野村浩二）
（電気新聞２０２５年８月１５日付・全文転載・出所：日本電気協会新聞部）

　今年６月、日本製鉄はＵＳスチールの買収を完了させた。歴史的な円安・ドル高の環境下、米国内で総額４兆円近い投資と雇用の維持創出を約束し、米政府には拒否権のある黄金株を付与した。日本国内では、「鉄鋼生産拡大はありえない」という橋本英二会長の判断のもと、脱炭素政策を掲げる政府の支援により水素還元製鉄の実証を進め、電炉や自前のＬＮＧ火力発電所を増設するという。トランプ関税の交渉カードを結果的に与えられた石破茂首相は「これから先の日米関係のモデルケースになる」と礼賛した。
　日本では脱炭素化と生産縮小を甘受し、（少なくともトランプ政権下では）脱炭素化が求められない米国では高炉の近代化に自らの時価総額を超えて投資する判断の合理性をどう評価すべきだろう。
　アルバート・Ｏ・ハーシュマンはその古典的名著『離脱・発言・忠誠』において、衰退への応答を分析した。組織に対する不満や国家による誤った政策などへの基本的な反応として、離脱と発言が区分される。離脱（エグジット）とは、不満を抱く組織の構成員が離れたり、企業が海外へと拠点を移転させたりすることである。そして発言（ボイス）とは、構成員や企業が内部から変革を求めて声を上げ、影響を及ぼそうとすることである。
　まず重要な前提は、競争によって効率的な資源配分が実現されるという経済学的な論理の核には、離脱が位置づけられていることである。消費者は品質に満足しなければ別の商品に切り替え、業績の低下した企業は退出を迫られる。市場メカニズムの機能は、離脱に全面的に依存している。
　だが離脱では問題が解決せず、むしろ悪化するケースもある。発言によって改善が可能である（取り返しのつく）場合でも、安易に離脱が選択されれば、発言は駆逐され内部の問題は表面化しない。誤りを正す機会は失われ、非効率性が放置される。
　ハーシュマンはそれを是正する機能として、忠誠という概念を導入した。忠誠（ロイヤリティ）とは、自らの所属する共同体には誤りを正す価値があるとした信念のもと、関与し続ける意志である。それは離脱を抑え発言を促し、衰退を食い止める。とくに自らの発言が効果的だと期待できる大企業には、忠誠に基づく発言が期待される。政府には、真に負担を見通す力などないからである。
　鉄鋼業は脱炭素政策の現実性の欠如を最も熟知する。だが近年の応答は、文字通りの離脱に加え、はるかに高価な水素への値差補填や、グリーン鉄への消費者負担を求める発言であった。こうした発言は、国内の高コスト構造を生じ自らの内需を縮小させ、離脱とともに国内ＣＯ２排出を減少させて脱炭素化の演出に寄与する。離脱と発言はともに日本という共同体の状況を悪化させている。
　ＥＶ熱に偏った政府やマスコミに追従しなかったトヨタの全方位戦略は、ハーシュマン的に制度を健全化させうる最適な応答と評価されよう。共同体への忠誠に基づき、離脱を抑えつつ発言を続け、今年３月には過去最高の営業収益を記録した。
　巨額投資と技術移転の後、米国政治が法制度・契約・規制を通じて資産や技術の実効的支配権を静かに包み込むときが訪れるかもしれない。自らの共同体への忠誠とは、義理ではなく、実利によって長期的に支えられるものである。

"Independent Energy Strategy by Non-Governmental Experts, 5a Edition" (in Japanese)

Taishi Sugiyama, Koji Nomura, Yoshioaki Oka, Tomohiko Okano, Koko Kato, Naoki Tatsumi, Hiroshi Tanaka, Naoki Toda, Haruhisa Nakazawa, Tsuruhiko Nambu, Koji Hirai, Satoshi Matsuda, Ryuzo Yamamoto, Masami Kojima, Tetsuo Sawada, Yoshihiro Muronaka, Masayuki Yamaguchi, and Tadashi Watanabe

2025.07

Internal/External technical report, pre-print, etc., Joint Work

This plan was formulated by a non-governmental group of researchers and practitioners who share a common concern that Japan's current decarbonization-centric energy policy is structurally undermining the nation's security foundations and economic growth. The Japanese government's 7th Strategic Energy Plan, adopted by cabinet decision on February 18, 2025, along with its next-cycle NDC (targeting ▲60% by FY2035 and ▲73% by FY2040 against FY2013 levels), reaffirms the existing decarbonization trajectory without evidence-based justification. This plan is presented as a comprehensive alternative. It advances "Energy Dominance" — the abundant, stable, and affordable supply of energy — as its guiding principle, and calls for a fundamental reorientation of Japanese energy policy toward security and economic growth.
The most significant addition in the 5th edition is the introduction of two new chapters in the current situation section: "I.6. Decarbonization Is Not a Global Trend" and "I.7. The World Is Returning to Low-Carbon Fossil Fuels." These chapters systematically document the dramatic shift in international conditions, including: the inauguration of the Trump administration in January 2025 and the United States' formal re-withdrawal from the Paris Agreement; the de facto repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and a sweeping rollback of fossil fuel development regulations; the UK Conservative Party's declaration of a blank-slate review of its 2050 net-zero target; the rise of the AfD as Germany's second-largest party, reflecting voter backlash against energy cost increases driven by decarbonization policy; and China's continued expansion of coal-fired power capacity. These developments are juxtaposed against Japan's decision to press ahead with GX legislation (amended in May 2025), disregarding international trends.
The proposal retains its eleven-point policy framework: restoring electricity prices to pre-earthquake levels (¥14/kWh for industry; ¥21/kWh for households); raising nuclear power's share to 50% at the earliest opportunity through restarts, life extensions, and new construction; ensuring that CO₂ regulations do not impede the stable use of fossil fuels; halting the large-scale deployment of solar power; avoiding the obstruction of automotive industry growth through premature EV mandates; prioritizing cost reduction over accelerated deployment of fossil-fuel alternatives; abolishing excessive energy-efficiency regulations; returning the electricity sector to a vertically integrated structure; strengthening energy stockpiling and infrastructure defense; eliminating CO₂ aggregate targets and sectoral allocation; and withdrawing from the Paris Agreement in favor of a Japan-U.S.-led "Energy Dominance Agreement." EV-related data has been updated to reflect the latest figures, including Toyota's sales of approximately 10.27 million vehicles in FY2024 (April 2024–March 2025). The nuclear chapter (Section II.2) has been substantially expanded with new discussion of scientific assessment of low-dose radiation risk, the role of emergency scientific advisory groups, uranium resource sustainability, and the knowledge-base function of research institutions.
The electricity system reform sections (Section II.8) — analyzing the structural mechanism by which vertical unbundling leads to chronic underinvestment — are carried forward from the third edition. On the international framework, with U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement now a realized fact under the Trump administration, the proposal's call for Japan to follow suit and co-lead a new "Energy Dominance Agreement" is advanced with a strengthened empirical foundation.

"What is Realistic?" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun) 2025.07

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

"Independent Energy Strategy by Non-Governmental Experts, 5th Edition" (in Japanese)

Taishi Sugiyama, Koji Nomura, Yoshioaki Oka, Tomohiko Okano, Koko Kato, Naoki Tatsumi, Hiroshi Tanaka, Naoki Toda, Haruhisa Nakazawa, Tsuruhiko Nambu, Koji Hirai, Satoshi Matsuda, Ryuzo Yamamoto, Masami Kojima, Tetsuo Sawada, Yoshihiro Muronaka, Masayuki Yamaguchi, and Tadashi Watanabe

2025.06

Internal/External technical report, pre-print, etc., Joint Work

"Hashino and Kamaishi: Memories and Revival of Manufacturing" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Column (Research Institute of Capital Formation, Development Bank of Japan) 2025.06

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

"Decarbonization’s Mirage: Rethinking Corporate Priorities in a Shifting World" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Diamond Online (Diamond Inc.) 2025.06

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

"Open Secret" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun) 2025.05

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

"Why Japan Must Make a Energy Policy Shift from Ideals to Reality" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Diamond Online (Diamond Inc.) 2025.05

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

”Another Environmental Regulatory Reform in the U.S. - Revision of TSCA to Balance Industrial Competitiveness” (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Energy Policy Report (Energy Forum Inc.) ( 2143 ) 2025.05

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

While the energy dominance strategy has drawn considerable attention following the launch of the second Trump administration, another wave of environmental regulatory reform is also underway: a review of the operational framework governing the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), the law that regulates chemical substances. The TSCA revision demonstrates the United States' remarkable capacity for self-correction in addressing the universal challenge of reconciling global industrial competitiveness with the maintenance of public trust in safety. The U.S. chemical industry is a driver of innovation, with direct exports alone accounting for 10% of total goods exports. In 2016, under the Obama administration, TSCA underwent a major overhaul. The original law, enacted in 1976, did not require comprehensive risk assessments for existing chemical substances, and the revision reflected a recognition that this had allowed many chemical products to circulate in the market without adequate safety verification. The most significant achievement of the reform was mandating that the EPA conduct risk assessments for both new and existing chemicals, thereby closing the regulatory gaps that had previously existed. However, implementation problems became apparent after the revision. TSCA requires the EPA to complete reviews of new chemical substances within 90 days, yet cases of non-compliance have proliferated. According to the latest report from the American Chemistry Council (ACC), 95% of the 436 new chemical substances currently under review have exceeded the 90-day limit, and 68% have already been pending for more than a year. The ACC warns that the normalization of review delays has accelerated the offshoring of chemical development and production to overseas locations, making the risk of shrinking domestic investment and employment increasingly tangible. When chemical substances produced in countries with less stringent regulations are incorporated into finished goods and imported into the United States, only articles containing specific substances of high concern are subject to regulation. No practical or effective mechanism has been established to prevent this regulatory leakage. The dynamic in which environmental regulations lacking international harmonization disadvantage domestic production while failing to prevent flight abroad mirrors the situation seen with carbon pricing and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Industry is not simply calling for deregulation. The ACC has explicitly endorsed the TSCA reform and is asking for a review process that combines safety assurance with greater transparency and predictability. EPA Administrator Zeldin indicated in March that he was considering measures to accelerate and streamline the review process. An ACC survey found that 65% of Americans agree that modernizing regulations would promote domestic chemical manufacturing, while 74% agree that it is possible to craft practical policies that protect the environment and public health without sacrificing manufacturing jobs and competitiveness. This capacity for institutional self-correction in the United States holds important lessons for Japan. Japan continues to grapple with how to reconcile safety with economic efficiency and growth in the context of its decarbonization and nuclear energy policies. Prioritizing efficiency alone risks leaving future risk management inadequate, while an exclusive focus on safety could see the cost burden expand without limit, significantly impeding economic growth. Alongside rigorous, science-based risk assessment, the pursuit of an internationally harmonized regulatory framework is indispensable to achieving compatibility with industrial development.

"From Urban Wealth to Rural Growth: Redesigning Capital Gains Taxation for Regional Revitalization" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura and Minoru Masujima

SBI-FERI Report (SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute) 2025.05

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work, Lead author

首都圏の不動産価格は高騰し多額の含み益が生じているが、地方との価格差が拡大するなか、現行の譲渡所得税制は地方移住の制度的障壁となっている。本稿では、都市部の居住用不動産を売却して地方へ移住する際、譲渡益の80％を控除する新たな税制の導入を提案する。これにより追加の財政負担を伴うことなく、比較的富裕な層の資産・消費・経験を地方に再配分し、地域における「集積の経済」形成の契機とすべきであると主張する。

"Policy-driven Virtual Currency" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun) 2025.04

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

"Thirty Years of Empirical Economics at KEO" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Keio Economic Observatory 60th Anniversary (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University) 2025.03

Other, Single Work

"The Realities of Sluggish Domestic Demand" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun) 2025.03

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

"Roundtable Discussion: The Economy and Society in 2040" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

SBI Research Review (SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute) 7 91 - 98 2025.02

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

”Energy Price Level Index - Crisis Level due to Excessive Carbon Neutral Policy” (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Energy Policy Report (Energy Forum Inc.) 2025.02

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

The draft of Japan's 7th Strategic Energy Plan stated that "economically rational measures should be prioritized in order to suppress as much as possible the cost increases associated with decarbonization." However, the most pressing challenge for the Japanese economy is not to limit the extent of further cost increases driven by decarbonization policy, but to reduce energy prices themselves. The gap between domestic and international energy prices, which has widened considerably in recent years, has reached a critical juncture. Calculating a comprehensive energy price differential requires complex computations that depend on differences in industrial structure and energy consumption patterns across countries. A distinctive feature of the recent period of price surges is that it coincided with a significant depreciation of the yen. Converting yen-denominated energy prices into dollar terms at the depreciated exchange rate makes Japanese prices appear relatively low. For this reason, a comparison using the "Real Price Level Index (Real PLI)" — derived by dividing the energy Price Level Index (PLI) by the macro-level PLI for output — is more informative, as it extracts a more stable trend that is independent of exchange rate fluctuations. According to the Energy Cost Monitoring report published in February 2025, Japan's Real PLI for total final energy consumption in the fourth quarter of 2024 is estimated to have risen to 3.0 times that of the United States. This means the price gap has widened by approximately 30% compared to the 2015–19 pre-COVID average of 2.3 times. Looking at electricity alone, Germany and the United Kingdom stand out as particularly expensive; however, when measured by the Real PLI for total final energy consumption, Germany stands at 2.6 times the U.S. level, while the United Kingdom and China are at 2.5 times and France at 2.4 times — all considerably lower than Japan. The rise in domestic oil refining costs, not only the yen-denominated cost of crude oil imports, is also a significant contributing factor. The second Trump administration in the United States has shifted course toward suppressing domestic energy prices through the pursuit of energy dominance. Should Japan proceed with implementing the 7th Strategic Energy Plan on the foundation of its decarbonization policies, a further widening of the domestic-international price gap would be inevitable. In Germany, the acceleration of decarbonization policy from the latter half of the 2010s onward began to erode domestic production in energy-intensive manufacturing industries, with the phase-out of nuclear power and coal further driving up prices and contributing to industrial hollowing-out. For 2023–24, two consecutive years of negative growth appear all but certain, and continued downward revisions for 2025 remain a strong possibility. What is critical to understand is that narrowing Japan's domestic-international electricity and energy price gap is fundamentally incompatible with the continuation of nearly all decarbonization policies — with the exception of promoting nuclear power. Unless Japan demonstrates a resolute commitment to reducing real energy prices that have expanded to their highest levels in the postwar era, industrial hollowing-out driven by both price and non-price factors will advance steadily. There is no time to delay the transition away from policies that have lost touch with reality.

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