論文 - 野村　周平

Excess deaths from COVID-19 in Japan and 47 prefectures from January through June 2021

Nomura S., Eguchi A., Tanoue Y., Yoneoka D., Kawashima T., Suzuki M., Hashizume M.

Public Health （Elsevier BV）  203   15 - 18 2022年02月

ISSN  00333506

　概要を見る

Objectives: In Japan, several studies have reported no excess all-cause deaths (the difference between the observed and expected number of deaths) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020. This study aimed to estimate the weekly excess deaths in Japan's 47 prefectures for 2021 until June 27. Study design: Vital statistical data on deaths were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan. For this analysis, we used data from January 2012 to June 2021. Methods: A quasi-Poisson regression was used to estimate the expected weekly number of deaths. Excess deaths were expressed as the range of differences between the observed and expected number of all-cause deaths and the 95% upper bound of the one-sided prediction interval. Results: Since January 2021, excess deaths were observed for the first time in the week corresponding to April 12–18 and have continued through mid-June, with the highest excess percentage occurring in the week corresponding to May 31–June 6 (excess deaths: 1431–2587; excess percentage: 5.95–10.77%). Similarly, excess deaths were observed in consecutive weeks from April to June 2021 in 18 of 47 prefectures. Conclusions: For the first time since February 2020, when the first COVID-19 death was reported in Japan, excess deaths possibly related to COVID-19 were observed in April 2021 in Japan, during the fourth wave. This may reflect the deaths of non-infected people owing to the disruption that the pandemic has caused.

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Fish in the sea: Number, characteristics, and partner preferences of unmarried Japanese adults - analysis of a national survey

Ghaznavi C., Sakamoto H., Nomura S., Kubota A., Yoneoka D., Shibuya K., Ueda P.

PLoS ONE （Public Library of Science ({PLoS})）  17 （ 2 February ） e0262528 2022年02月

査読有り,  ISSN  1932-6203

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Background A large proportion of adults in Japan remain unmarried even though they intend to marry during their lifetime. To provide data for policy makers and those searching for partners in the Japanese marriage market, we estimated the number and characteristics of unmarried women and men with marriage intention and assessed their partner preferences. Based on the findings, we hypothesized regarding potential mismatches between the individuals available in the marriage market and the type of partners they are looking for. Methods We used data from the National Fertility Survey (2015), a nationally representative survey in Japan, and included 20,344 participants aged 18-49 years, of which 6,568 were unmarried with marriage intention. We estimated the total number of unmarried women and men who intend to marry, extrapolated their characteristics to the Japanese population, and assessed their partner preferences, as well as their ideal age of marriage and the ideal age of their partner. Results In 2015, there were 8.48 million unmarried women and 9.83 million unmarried men aged 18- 49 years with marriage intention in Japan. Surpluses of around 600,000 men were observed in non-densely inhabited areas (men-to-women ratio: 1.31) and in the Kanto region (1.23). Most of the women and men in the marriage market had annual incomes lower than 3,000,000 JPY (28,000 USD) and only 263,000 women (3%) and 883,000 men (9%) had an income of 5,000,000 JPY (47,000 USD) or more; 167,000 men (2%) had an income of 7,000,000 JPY (66,000 USD) or more, with roughly three-quarters of them having a university degree. When asked about eight items that one may consider in a potential partner, the proportion of women listing an item as "important"tended to be larger than those of men across all items (education, occupation, finances, personality, mutual hobbies, cooperation/understanding regarding one's work, and attitude towards/skills in housework and childrearing) except appearance. The largest differences were observed for finances (proportion of women vs. men listing the item as "important"or "would consider:"94.0% vs. 40.5%, p<0.001), occupation (84.9% vs. 43.9%, p<0.001), and education (53.9% vs. 28.7%, p<0.001). While women, on average, preferred men who were around 1-3 years older than themselves, men preferred women around their own age until the age of 26 years, at which point men preferred women who were younger than themselves, with the preferred age difference increasing substantially with age. As such, the number of men preferring a younger partner was larger than the number of women who preferred an older partner. Conclusions By providing data on the number, characteristics and partner preferences of individuals in the marriage market, our study could inform decisions for those searching for marriage partners in Japan. Moreover, we hypothesize that mismatches in geographical location, the supply- demand disparity for partners with higher income, and age preferences could partly explain the large number of Japanese women and men who remain unmarried despite intending to get married. Further studies are needed to assess if, and to what extent, the identified mismatches may affect marriage rates.

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Variation in the COVID-19 infection–fatality ratio by age, time, and geography during the pre-vaccine era: a systematic analysis

Reed J D Sorensen, Ryan M Barber, David M Pigott, Austin Carter, Cory N Spencer, Samuel M Ostroff, Robert C Reiner Jr, Cristiana Abbafati, Christopher Adolph, Adrien Allorant, Joanne O Amlag, Aleksandr Y Aravkin, Steven D Bachmeier, Bree L Bang-Jensen, Catherine Bisignano, Sabina S Bloom, Rachel Castellano, Emma Castro, James K Collins, Haley Comfort, Xiaochen Dai, William James Dangel, Carolyn Dapper, Amanda Deen, Lucas Earl, Megan Erickson, Samuel B Ewald, Alize J Ferrari, Abraham D Flaxman, Joseph Jon Frostad, Nancy Fullman, Amiran Gamkrelidze, John R Giles, Gaorui Guo, Jiawei He, Monika Helak, Erin N Hulland, Bethany M Huntley, Maia Kereselidze, Alice Lazzar-Atwood, Kate E LeGrand, Akiaja Lindstrom, Emily Linebarger, Rafael Lozano, Beatrice Magistro, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Johan Månsson, Ana M Mantilla Herrera, Fatima Marinho, Alemnesh H Mirkuzie, Ali H Mokdad, Lorenzo Monasta, Mohsen Naghavi, Hasan Nassereldine, Shuhei Nomura, Christopher M Odell, Latera Tesfaye Olana, Maja Pasovic, Spencer A Pease, Louise Penberthy, Grace Reinke, Antonio Luiz, P Ribeiro, Damian Francesco Santomauro, Aleksei Sholokhov, Natia Skhvitaridze, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Ruri Syailendrawati, Roman Topor-Madry, Anh Truc Vo, Theo Vos, Rebecca Walcott, Ally Walker, Stefanie Watson, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Nahom Alemseged Worku, Peng Zheng, Simon I Hay, Emmanuela Gakidou, Christopher J L Murray

The Lancet （Elsevier BV）  2022年02月

査読有り,  ISSN  0140-6736

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Alcohol intake and stomach cancer risk in Japan: A pooled analysis of six cohort studies

Tamura T., Wakai K., Lin Y., Tamakoshi A., Utada M., Ozasa K., Sugawara Y., Tsuji I., Ono A., Sawada N., Tsugane S., Ito H., Nagata C., Kitamura T., Naito M., Tanaka K., Shimazu T., Mizoue T., Matsuo K., Inoue M., Abe S.K., Iwasaki M., Muto M., Saito E., Tanaka S., Yamaji T., Charvat H., Otani T., Sasazuki S., Nishino Y., Tsubono Y., Nomura S., Suzuki H., Oze I., Wada K., Kitamura Y., Nakayama T., Sadakane A.

Cancer Science （Wiley）  113 （ 1 ） 261 - 276 2022年01月

ISSN  13479032

　概要を見る

The association between alcohol intake and stomach cancer risk remains controversial. We undertook a pooled analysis of data from six large-scale Japanese cohort studies with 256 478 participants on this topic. Alcohol intake as ethanol was estimated using a validated questionnaire. The participants were followed for incidence of stomach cancer. We calculated study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for stomach cancer according to alcohol intake using a Cox regression model. Summary HRs were estimated by pooling the study-specific HRs using a random-effects model. During 4 265 551 person-years of follow-up, 8586 stomach cancer cases were identified. In men, the multivariate-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) of stomach cancer were 1.00 (0.87-1.15) for occasional drinkers, and 1.00 (0.91-1.11) for <23 g/d, 1.09 (1.01-1.18) for 23 to <46 g/d, 1.18 (1.09-1.29) for 46 to <69 g/d, 1.21 (1.05-1.39) for 69 to <92 g/d, and 1.29 (1.11-1.51) for ≥92 g/d ethanol in regular drinkers compared with nondrinkers. In women, the multivariate-adjusted HRs were 0.93 (0.80-1.08) for occasional drinkers, and 0.85 (0.74-0.99) for <23 g/d, and 1.22 (0.98-1.53) for ≥23 g/d in regular drinkers compared with nondrinkers. The HRs for proximal and distal cancer in drinkers vs nondrinkers were 1.69 (1.15-2.47) and 1.24 (0.99-1.55) for ≥92 g/d in men, and 1.60 (0.76-3.37) and 1.18 (0.88-1.57) for ≥23 g/d in women, respectively. Alcohol intake increased stomach cancer risk in men, and heavy drinkers showed a greater point estimate of risk for proximal cancer than for distal cancer.

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Identification of optimum combinations of media channels for approaching COVID-19 vaccine unsure and unwilling groups in Japan

Yoneoka D., Eguchi A., Nomura S., Kawashima T., Tanoue Y., Murakami M., Sakamoto H., Maruyama-Sakurai K., Gilmour S., Shi S., Kunishima H., Kaneko S., Adachi M., Shimada K., Yamamoto Y., Miyata H.

The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific （Elsevier {BV}）  18   100330 - 100330 2022年01月

査読有り,  ISSN  2666-6065

　概要を見る

Background: Optimizing media campaigns for those who were unsure or unwilling to take coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccines is required urgently to effectively present public health messages aimed at increasing vaccination coverage. We propose a novel framework for selecting tailor-made media channels and their combinations for this task. Methods: An online survey was conducted in Japan during February to March, 2021, with 30,053 participants. In addition to their sociodemographic characteristics, it asked the attitude toward vaccination and information sources (i.e., media channels) for COVID-19 issues. Multinomial logic regression was fitted to estimate the combinations of the media channels and their odds ratio (OR) associated with vaccination attitudes. Findings: The proportion of respondents who were unsure or unwilling to take the vaccination was skewed toward younger generation: 58.1% were aged under 35, while 28.1% were 65 years or older. Media channels such as “Non-medical and Non-TV” and “Non-medical and Non-government” were associated with the unsure group: OR (95% Confidence intervals, (CI)) = 1.75 (1.62, 1.89) and 1.53 (1.44, 1.62), respectively. In addition, media channels such as “Newspapers or the Novel Coronavirus Expert Meeting”, “Medical or Local government”, and “Non-TV” were associated with the unwilling group: OR (95% CI) were 2.00 (1.47, 2.75), 3.13 (2.58, 3.81), and 2.25 (1.84, 2.77), respectively. Interpretation: To effectively approach COVID-19 vaccine unsure and unwilling groups, generation-specific online and offline media campaigns should be optimized to the type of vaccine attitude. Funding: Funded by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan (H29-Gantaisaku-ippan-009) and the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (AMED) (JP20fk0108535).

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Global warming and the Summer Olympic and Paralympic games: a perspective from the Tokyo 2020 Games

Yamasaki L., Nomura S.

Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine （Japanese Society for Hygiene）  27 （ 1 ） 7 - 7 2022年

査読有り,  ISSN  1342078X

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The Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games provided a significant opportunity to consider global warming as an issue to be seriously addressed to run the safe and fair games in the era of climate change. As the global temperature continuously rises and extreme hot-weather events increase in frequency and intensity, the future summer Olympic and Paralympic games will need to deal with the heat by applying thorough and appropriate countermeasures. In the recent decades, many mitigation measures to protect athletes from heat have been rapidly discussed by the sports community, including countermeasures to hold games at times and places with moderate temperature and climatic risk assessments with Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) during the games. However, the excessive heat conditions in the Tokyo 2020 Games affected not only athletes, but also all people concerned the events. While deliberate considerations by organizers had been given to mitigate extraordinary heat, the evaluations of these measures and epidemiological analyses of risk factors of patients must be further enhanced to develop efficient measures for the future. Therefore, we discussed the underlying climate-related problems of the summer Olympic and Paralympic Games in view of what we had experienced in the Tokyo 2020 Games. Facing with emerging global warming, future intervention against heat in the summer Olympic and Paralympic games will need to integrate systematic disease surveillance and evaluation of intervention with an effective combination with the approaches previously conducted. The Tokyo 2020 Games is a wake-up call to accelerate the public health measures towards the creeping global warming.

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Inter-prefectural Travel and Network Connectedness During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan

Ghaznavi C., Yoneoka D., Tanoue Y., Gilmour S., Kawashima T., Eguchi A., Kawamura Y., Miyata H., Nomura S.

Journal of Epidemiology （Japan Epidemiological Association）  32 （ 11 ） 510 - 518 2022年

査読有り,  ISSN  09175040

　概要を見る

Background: Increases in human mobility have been linked to rises in novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission. The pandemic era in Japan has been characterized by changes in inter-prefectural mobility across state of emergency (SOE) declarations and travel campaigns, but they have yet to be characterized. Methods: Using Yahoo Japan mobility data extracted from the smartphones of more than 10 million Japanese residents, we calculated the monthly number of inter-prefectural travel instances, stratified by residential prefecture and destination prefecture. We then used this adjacency matrix to calculate two network connectedness metrics, closeness centrality and effective distance, that reliably predict disease transmission. Results: Inter-prefectural mobility and network connectedness decreased most considerably during the first SOE, but this decrease dampened with each successive SOE. Mobility and network connectedness increased during the Go To Travel campaign. Travel volume between distant prefectures decreased more than travel between prefectures with geographic proximity. Closeness centrality was found to be negatively correlated with the rate of COVID-19 infection across prefectures, with the strength of this association increasing in tandem with the infection rate. Changes in effective distance were more visible among geographically isolated prefectures (Hokkaido and Okinawa) than among metropolitan, central prefectures (Tokyo, Aichi, Osaka, and Fukuoka). Conclusion: The magnitude of reductions in human mobility decreased with each subsequent state of emergency, consistent with pandemic fatigue. The association between network connectedness and rates of COVID-19 infection remained visible throughout the entirety of the pandemic period, suggesting that inter-prefectural mobility may have contributed to disease spread.

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A global systematic analysis of the occurrence, severity, and recovery pattern of long COVID in 2020 and 2021

SW Hanson, C Abbafati, JG Aerts, Z Al-Aly, C Ashbaugh, T Ballouz, ...

MedRxiv 2022年

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Reasons for Suicide during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan

Koda M., Harada N., Eguchi A., Nomura S., Ishida Y.

JAMA Network Open （American Medical Association (AMA)）  5 （ 1 ） e2145870 - e2145870 2022年

査読有り

　概要を見る

Importance: Although the suicide rate in Japan increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, the reasons for suicide have yet to be comprehensively investigated. Objective: To assess which reasons for suicide had rates that exceeded the expected number of suicide deaths for that reason during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design, Setting, and Participants: This national, population-based cross-sectional study of data on suicides gathered by the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare from January 2020 to May 2021 used a times-series analysis on the numbers of reason-identified suicides. Data of decedents were recorded by the National Police Agency and compiled by the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare. Exposure: For category analysis, we compared data from January 2020 to May 2021 with data from December 2014 to June 2020. For subcategory analysis, data from January 2020 to May 2021 were compared with data from January 2019 to June 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was the monthly excess suicide rate, ie, the difference between the observed number of monthly suicide deaths and the upper bound of the 1-sided 95% CI for the expected number of suicide deaths in that month. Reasons for suicide were categorized into family, health, economy, work, relationships, school, and others, which were further divided into 52 subcategories. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to estimate the expected number of monthly suicides. Individual regression models were used for each of the 7 categories, 52 subcategories, men, women, and both genders. Results: From the 29938 suicides (9984 [33.3%] women; 1093 [3.7%] aged <20 years; 3147 [10.5%] aged >80 years), there were 21027 reason-identified suicides (7415 [35.3%] women). For both genders, all categories indicated monthly excess suicide rates, except for school in men. October 2020 had the highest excess suicide rates for all cases (observed, 1577; upper bound of 95% CI for expected number of suicides, 1254; 25.8% greater). In men, the highest monthly excess suicide rate was 24.3% for the other category in August 2020 (observed, 87; upper bound of 95% CI for expected number, 70); in women, it was 85.7% for school in August 2020 (observed, 26; upper bound of 95% CI for expected number, 14). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, observed suicides corresponding to all 7 categories of reasons exceeded the monthly estimates (based on data from before or during the COVID-19 pandemic), except for school-related reasons in men. This study can be used as a basis for developing intervention programs for suicide prevention..

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Pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: an exploratory analysis of infection and fatality rates, and contextual factors associated with preparedness in 177 countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Sept 30, 2021

Bollyky T.J., Hulland E.N., Barber R.M., Collins J.K., Kiernan S., Moses M., Pigott D.M., Reiner R.C., Sorensen R.J.D., Abbafati C., Adolph C., Allorant A., Amlag J.O., Aravkin A.Y., Bang-Jensen B., Carter A., Castellano R., Castro E., Chakrabarti S., Combs E., Dai X., Dangel W.J., Dapper C., Deen A., Duncan B.B., Earl L., Erickson M., Ewald S.B., Fedosseeva T., Ferrari A.J., Flaxman A.D., Fullman N., Gakidou E., Galal B., Gallagher J., Giles J.R., Guo G., He J., Helak M., Huntley B.M., Idrisov B., Johanns C., LeGrand K.E., Letourneau I.D., Lindstrom A., Linebarger E., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Magistro B., Malta D.C., Månsson J., Mantilla Herrera A.M., Marinho F., Mirkuzie A.H., Mokdad A.H., Monasta L., Naik P., Nomura S., O'Halloran J.K., Odell C.M., Olana L.T., Ostroff S.M., Pasovic M., Passos V.M.d.A., Penberthy L., Reinke G., Santomauro D.F., Schmidt M.I., Sholokhov A., Spurlock E., Troeger C.E., Varavikova E., Vo A.T., Vos T., Walcott R., Walker A., Wigley S.D., Wiysonge C.S., Worku N.A., Wu Y., Wulf Hanson S., Zheng P., Hay S.I., Murray C.J.L., Dieleman J.L.

The Lancet （Elsevier {BV}）  2022年

査読有り,  ISSN  01406736

　概要を見る

Background: National rates of COVID-19 infection and fatality have varied dramatically since the onset of the pandemic. Understanding the conditions associated with this cross-country variation is essential to guiding investment in more effective preparedness and response for future pandemics. Methods: Daily SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 deaths for 177 countries and territories and 181 subnational locations were extracted from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's modelling database. Cumulative infection rate and infection-fatality ratio (IFR) were estimated and standardised for environmental, demographic, biological, and economic factors. For infections, we included factors associated with environmental seasonality (measured as the relative risk of pneumonia), population density, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, proportion of the population living below 100 m, and a proxy for previous exposure to other betacoronaviruses. For IFR, factors were age distribution of the population, mean body-mass index (BMI), exposure to air pollution, smoking rates, the proxy for previous exposure to other betacoronaviruses, population density, age-standardised prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and cancer, and GDP per capita. These were standardised using indirect age standardisation and multivariate linear models. Standardised national cumulative infection rates and IFRs were tested for associations with 12 pandemic preparedness indices, seven health-care capacity indicators, and ten other demographic, social, and political conditions using linear regression. To investigate pathways by which important factors might affect infections with SARS-CoV-2, we also assessed the relationship between interpersonal and governmental trust and corruption and changes in mobility patterns and COVID-19 vaccination rates. Findings: The factors that explained the most variation in cumulative rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection between Jan 1, 2020, and Sept 30, 2021, included the proportion of the population living below 100 m (5·4% [4·0–7·9] of variation), GDP per capita (4·2% [1·8–6·6] of variation), and the proportion of infections attributable to seasonality (2·1% [95% uncertainty interval 1·7–2·7] of variation). Most cross-country variation in cumulative infection rates could not be explained. The factors that explained the most variation in COVID-19 IFR over the same period were the age profile of the country (46·7% [18·4–67·6] of variation), GDP per capita (3·1% [0·3–8·6] of variation), and national mean BMI (1·1% [0·2–2·6] of variation). 44·4% (29·2–61·7) of cross-national variation in IFR could not be explained. Pandemic-preparedness indices, which aim to measure health security capacity, were not meaningfully associated with standardised infection rates or IFRs. Measures of trust in the government and interpersonal trust, as well as less government corruption, had larger, statistically significant associations with lower standardised infection rates. High levels of government and interpersonal trust, as well as less government corruption, were also associated with higher COVID-19 vaccine coverage among middle-income and high-income countries where vaccine availability was more widespread, and lower corruption was associated with greater reductions in mobility. If these modelled associations were to be causal, an increase in trust of governments such that all countries had societies that attained at least the amount of trust in government or interpersonal trust measured in Denmark, which is in the 75th percentile across these spectrums, might have reduced global infections by 12·9% (5·7–17·8) for government trust and 40·3% (24·3–51·4) for interpersonal trust. Similarly, if all countries had a national BMI equal to or less than that of the 25th percentile, our analysis suggests global standardised IFR would be reduced by 11·1%. Interpretation: Efforts to improve pandemic preparedness and response for the next pandemic might benefit from greater investment in risk communication and community engagement strategies to boost the confidence that individuals have in public health guidance. Our results suggest that increasing health promotion for key modifiable risks is associated with a reduction of fatalities in such a scenario. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, J Stanton, T Gillespie, J and E Nordstrom, and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

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Myanmar’s coup risks a flood of vaccinepreventable disease

Lwin K.S., Ghaznavi C., Win K.L., Gilmour S., Hashizume M., Nomura S.

Journal of Global Health （International Global Health Society）  12 2022年

査読有り,  ISSN  20472978

　概要を見る

In line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the reduction of the under-5 mortality rate to ≤25 deaths per 1000 live births by 2030 is the primary target of Myanmar’s national strategic plan for newborn and child health [1]. Myanmar made considerable strides in decreasing under-5 mortality with a 61% reduction between 1990 and 2019; however, the rate remained high at 45 per 1000 live births as of 2019 and more progress is needed [2]. In Myanmar, more than 45 000 under-5 children died in 2017 primarily due to newborn causes (46.7%), pneumonia (15.1%), diarrhea (8.7%) and injuries (8.5%) [2]. Because immunization is one of the most cost-effective and efficient ways to improve child health [3], Myanmar’s 1978 Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) [4] was later broadened between 2016 and 2020 to include pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), Japanese encephalitis (JE) and rotavirus vaccines [5]. Since then, EPI has been supplying nine types of vaccines for children in Myanmar (Table 1) [4,5].

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Alkali-free glass substrate, laminated substrate, and glass substrate production method

S Nomura, K Ono

US Patent 11,247,933 2022年

Pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: an exploratory analysis of infection and fatality rates, and contextual factors associated with preparedness in 177 countries, from Jan 1 …

TJ Bollyky, EN Hulland, RM Barber, JK Collins, S Kiernan, M Moses, ...

The Lancet 399 (10334), 1489-1512 2022年

Impact of near-infrared fluorescence imaging with indocyanine green on structural sequelae of anastomotic leakage after laparoscopic intersphincteric resection of malignant …

H Hasegawa, Y Tsukada, M Wakabayashi, S Nomura, T Sasaki, ...

Techniques in Coloproctology 26 (7), 561-570 2022年

Glass substrate, liquid crystal antenna and high-frequency device

S Nomura, K Ono

US Patent 11,239,549 2022年

Alkali-free glass substrate, laminated substrate, and method for manufacturing glass substrate

S Nomura, K Ono

US Patent 11,370,694 2022年

Sleep duration and risk of cancer incidence and mortality: a pooled analysis of six population‐based cohorts in Japan

C Wilunda, SK Abe, T Svensson, N Sawada, S Tsugane, K Wada, ...

International Journal of Cancer 151 (7), 1068-1080 2022年

Variation in the COVID-19 infection-fatality ratio by age, time, and geography during the pre-vaccine era: A systematic analysis

RJD Sorensen, RM Barber, DM Pigott, A Carter, CN Spencer, SM Ostroff, ...

The Lancet 399 (10334), 1469-1488 2022年

Additional file 1 of Distributed lag interrupted time series model for unclear intervention timing: effect of a statement of emergency during COVID-19 pandemic

D Yoneoka, T Kawashima, Y Tanoue, S Nomura, A Eguchi

(No Title) 2022年

Geographically weighted generalized Farrington algorithm for rapid outbreak detection over short data accumulation periods

Yoneoka D., Kawashima T., Makiyama K., Tanoue Y., Nomura S., Eguchi A.

Statistics in Medicine （Wiley）  40 （ 28 ） 6277 - 6294 2021年12月

査読有り,  ISSN  02776715

　概要を見る

The demand for rapid surveillance and early detection of local outbreaks has been growing recently. The rapid surveillance can select timely and appropriate interventions toward controlling the spread of emerging infectious diseases, such as the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The Farrington algorithm was originally proposed by Farrington et al (1996), extended by Noufaily et al (2012), and is commonly used to estimate excess death. However, one of the major challenges in implementing this algorithm is the lack of historical information required to train it, especially for emerging diseases. Without sufficient training data the estimation/prediction accuracy of this algorithm can suffer leading to poor outbreak detection. We propose a new statistical algorithm—the geographically weighted generalized Farrington (GWGF) algorithm—by incorporating both geographically varying and geographically invariant covariates, as well as geographical information to analyze time series count data sampled from a spatially correlated process for estimating excess death. The algorithm is a type of local quasi-likelihood-based regression with geographical weights and is designed to achieve a stable detection of outbreaks even when the number of time points is small. We validate the outbreak detection performance by using extensive numerical experiments and real-data analysis in Japan during COVID-19 pandemic. We show that the GWGF algorithm succeeds in improving recall without reducing the level of precision compared with the conventional Farrington algorithm.

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