Details of a Researcher - Nomura, Shuhei

Papers - Nomura, Shuhei

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Does Japan's national nutrient-based dietary guideline improve lifestyle-related disease outcomes? A retrospective observational cross-sectional study.

Daisuke Yoneoka, Shuhei Nomura, Kayo Kurotani, Shiori Tanaka, Keiji Nakamura, Hisayuki Uneyama, Naoki Hayashi, Kenji Shibuya

PloS one 14 ( 10 ) e0224042 2019

Accepted

OBJECTIVE: The Japanese government has developed and promoted a national nutrient-based dietary guideline for preventing lifestyle-related chronic disease. However, its impact in a real-life setting has never been evaluated. We performed a critical appraisal of the guideline by examining the association between adherence to the guideline and lifestyle-related outcome indicators. METHODS: This is a retrospective observational cross-sectional study using nationally representative data on health and nutrition characteristics from the 2016 National Health and Nutrition Survey of Japan. We considered 3,861 participants aged ≥20 years, with evidence of low health risks of diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and obesity. Five health outcome indicators (hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and body mass index), were employed. A summary score was developed to reflect adherence to the recommended intake of seven nutrients defined by the guideline, including proteins, fat, saturated fatty acid, carbohydrate, dietary fiber, sodium, and potassium. Multivariate quartile regression approaches were employed to examine the association between the adherence score and the health outcome indicators, adjusting for the covariates. RESULTS: Overall, the proportion of those who adhered to the guideline (adherence rate) for all seven nutrients was only 0.3%. There was considerable variation in the adherence rate between the different nutrients, from 24.2% to 61.8%. After adjustment for covariates, in most health outcome indicators, regardless of age category and quartile, there was no clear association between the guideline adherence score and indicators. CONCLUSIONS: There is plenty of scope for improving the guideline. Nutrient impact on health may not necessarily depend on the amount of each nutrient in the diet. The significance and contribution of synergies between nutrients and complex interactions within foods to health outcomes need to be explored in future guideline updates.

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Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Collaborators, G. B. D. Causes of Death

Lancet 392 ( 10159 ) 2170 2018.11

Accepted, ISSN 0140-6736

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Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

GBD 2017 Mortality Collaborators

The Lancet 392 ( 10159 ) 1684 - 1735 2018.11

Accepted, ISSN 0140-6736

© 2018 The Author(s). Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

GBD 2017 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators

The Lancet 392 ( 10159 ) 1789 - 1858 2018.11

Accepted, ISSN 0140-6736

Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

GBD 2017 Risk Factor Collaborators

The Lancet 392 ( 10159 ) 1923 - 1994 2018.11

Accepted, ISSN 0140-6736

© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.

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Public Health Preparedness for and Response to Nuclear Disasters: An Editorial.

Shuhei Nomura, Michio Murakami

International journal of environmental research and public health 15 ( 11 ) 2018.11

Accepted, ISSN 1661-7827

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Bibliometric Study of Obstetrics Articles Published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, 1997-2016.

Kana Yamamoto, Akihiko Ozaki, Shuhei Nomura, Yuki Senoo, Izumi Yoshida, Yuto Maeda, Mutsuko Ohnishi, Tetsuya Tanimoto, Masahiro Kami

Cureus 10 ( 10 ) e3448 2018.10

Accepted, ISSN 2168-8184

Introduction A recent increase in cases of advanced maternal age in the US has been partly associated with a higher incidence of pregnancy-related complications and infertility. However, little is known on how such social changes may have influenced obstetrics articles published in high-impact medical journals subscribed by diverse physicians. The objective of this study is to elucidate the presence and trend of obstetrics investigations in high-profile medical journals. Material and methods This bibliometric study retrospectively analyzed original articles published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) from 1997 to 2016. Two reviewers extracted obstetrics articles from PubMed, assessed whether to include specific articles, and categorized them by subtopic. Main outcomes measure was the annual number of original investigations in obstetrics divided by that of original investigations from all fields during the study period, expressed as a trend. Results A total of 3486 original investigations were published during the study period. Regarding obstetrics, 1989 articles were originally extracted from PubMed; after a two-step review process, 199 (10.0%) obstetrics-related original investigations remained. Among them, 134 (67.4%) were classified as pregnancy-related abnormalities or complications (non-infection). The proportion of obstetrics articles decreased during the first 10 years but increased in the last 10 years. The highest figures in the first 10 and last 10 years were 8.5% in 1999 and 9.4% in 2014, respectively, whereas the lowest was 1.4% in 2008. The proportion articles on pregnancy-associated complications or abnormalities (non-infection) steadily increased during the study period, that of articles on infertility increased, and that of articles on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection steadily decreased. Conclusions The observed trend may suggest a changing interest in obstetrics investigations among general physicians in the last 20 years. What is particularly notable is a heightened presence of research on pregnancy-related complications and infertility, which may reflect an increasing frequency in advanced maternal age in the US.

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Progress towards universal health coverage in Myanmar: a national and subnational assessment.

Su Myat Han, Md Mizanur Rahman, Md Shafiur Rahman, Khin Thet Swe, Matthew Palmer, Haruka Sakamoto, Shuhei Nomura, Kenji Shibuya

The Lancet. Global health 6 ( 9 ) e989-e997 - e997 2018.09

Accepted, ISSN 2214-109X

BACKGROUND: Attainment of universal health coverage is a global health priority. The Myanmar Government has committed to attainment of universal health coverage by 2030, but progress so far has not been assessed. We aimed to estimate national and subnational health service coverage and financial risk protection. METHODS: We used nationally representative data from the Myanmar Demographic and Health Survey (2016) and the Integrated Household Living Condition Assessment (2010) to examine 26 health service indicators and explored the incidence of catastrophic health payment and impoverishment caused by out-of-pocket payments. We used logistic regression models of inequalities in, and risk factors for, indicators of universal health coverage. FINDINGS: Nationally, the coverage of health service indicators ranged from 18·4% (95% CI 14·9-21·9) to 96·2% (95·9-96·5). Coverage of most health services indicators was below the universal health coverage target of 80%. 14·6% (95% CI 13·9-15·3) of households that used health services faced catastrophic health-care payments. 2·0% (95% CI 1·7-2·3) of non-poor households became poor because of out-of-pocket payments for health. Health service coverage and financial risk protection varied substantially by region. Although the richest quintiles had better access to health services than the poorest quintiles, they also had a higher incidence of financial catastrophe as a result of payments for health care. Of the indicators included in the study, coverage of adequate sanitation, no indoor use of solid fuels, at least four antenatal care visits, postnatal care for mothers, skilled birth attendance, and institutional delivery were the most inequitable by wealth quintile. INTERPRETATION: Attainment of universal health coverage in Myanmar in the immediate future will be very challenging as a result of the low health service coverage, high financial risk, and inequalities in access to care. Health service coverage and financial risk protection for vulnerable, disadvantaged populations should be prioritised. FUNDING: Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan.

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The Great East Japan Earthquake, Tsunamis, and Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Disaster: Lessons for Evidence Integration from a WADEM 2017 Presentation and Panel Discussion.

Claire Leppold, Sae Ochi, Shuhei Nomura, Virginia Murray

Prehospital and disaster medicine 33 ( 4 ) 424 - 427 2018.08

Accepted, ISSN 1049-023X

In April 2017, some of the health impacts of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, tsunamis, and resultant Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant disaster (Okuma, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan) were presented at the 19th Congress of the World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine (WADEM; Madison, Wisconsin USA) in Toronto, Canada. A panel discussion was then opened by asking audience members about their experiences in their own countries, and how they would suggest taking steps to reach the goals of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. This paper summarizes the presentation and panel discussion, with a particular focus on the common problems identified in understanding and reducing health risks from disasters in multiple countries, such as the ethical and practical difficulties in decision making on evacuating vulnerable populations that arose similarly during the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011 and Hurricane Ike's approach to Galveston (Texas USA) in 2008. This paper also highlights the need for greater integration of research, for example through increased review and collation of evidence from different disaster settings to identify common problems and possible solutions, which was identified in this panel session as a precursor to fulfilling the goals of the Sendai Framework.Leppold C, Ochi S, Nomura S, Murray V. The Great East Japan Earthquake, tsunamis, and Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant disaster: lessons for evidence integration from a WADEM 2017 presentation and panel discussion. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2018;33(4):424-427.

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Balancing the risk of the evacuation and sheltering-in-place options: a survival study following Japan's 2011 Fukushima nuclear incident.

Yuki Shimada, Shuhei Nomura, Akihiko Ozaki, Asaka Higuchi, Arinobu Hori, Yuki Sonoda, Kana Yamamoto, Izumi Yoshida, Masaharu Tsubokura

BMJ open 8 ( 7 ) e021482 2018.07

Accepted, ISSN 2044-6055

OBJECTIVE: The decision to evacuate or shelter-in-place is fundamental to emergency response, especially for a vulnerable population. While an elevated risk of mortality due to a hasty, unplanned evacuation has been well documented, there is little research on and knowledge about the health consequences of sheltering-in-place in disaster contexts. We compared hospital mortality in patients who sheltered-in-place (non-evacuees) after the incident with the baseline preincident mortality and articulated postincident circumstances of the hospital while sheltering-in-place. PARTICIPANTS: We considered all 484 patients admitted to Takano Hospital (located 22 km South of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant) from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2016. METHODS: Significant differences in mortality rates between preincident baseline and three postincident groups (evacuees, non-evacuees (our major interest) and new admittees) were tested using the Bayesian survival analysis with Weibull multivariate regression and survival probability using the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. All the analyses were separately performed by the internal and psychiatry department. RESULTS: After adjusting for covariates, non-evacuees in the internal department had a significantly higher mortality risk with an HR of 1.57 (95% credible intervals 1.11 to 2.18) than the baseline preincident. Of them, most deaths occurred within the first 100 days of the incident. No significant increase in mortality risk was identified in evacuees and new admittees postincident in the department, which were adjusted for covariates. In contrast, for the psychiatry department, statistical difference in mortality risk was not identified in any groups. CONCLUSIONS: The mortality risk of sheltering-in-place in a harsh environment might be comparable to those in an unplanned evacuation. If sheltering-in-place with sufficient resources is not guaranteed, evacuation could be a reasonable option, which might save more lives of vulnerable people if performed in a well-planned manner with satisfactory arrangements for appropriate transportation and places to safely evacuate.

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Automatic anatomical classification of esophagogastroduodenoscopy images using deep convolutional neural networks.

Hirotoshi Takiyama, Tsuyoshi Ozawa, Soichiro Ishihara, Mitsuhiro Fujishiro, Satoki Shichijo, Shuhei Nomura, Motoi Miura, Tomohiro Tada

Scientific reports 8 ( 1 ) 7497 - 7497 2018.05

Accepted, ISSN 2045-2322

The use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) has dramatically advanced our ability to recognize images with machine learning methods. We aimed to construct a CNN that could recognize the anatomical location of esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) images in an appropriate manner. A CNN-based diagnostic program was constructed based on GoogLeNet architecture, and was trained with 27,335 EGD images that were categorized into four major anatomical locations (larynx, esophagus, stomach and duodenum) and three subsequent sub-classifications for stomach images (upper, middle, and lower regions). The performance of the CNN was evaluated in an independent validation set of 17,081 EGD images by drawing receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and calculating the area under the curves (AUCs). ROC curves showed high performance of the trained CNN to classify the anatomical location of EGD images with AUCs of 1.00 for larynx and esophagus images, and 0.99 for stomach and duodenum images. Furthermore, the trained CNN could recognize specific anatomical locations within the stomach, with AUCs of 0.99 for the upper, middle, and lower stomach. In conclusion, the trained CNN showed robust performance in its ability to recognize the anatomical location of EGD images, highlighting its significant potential for future application as a computer-aided EGD diagnostic system.

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Call for a new epidemiological approach to disaster response.

Michio Murakami, Shuhei Nomura, Masaharu Tsubokura

Journal of epidemiology and community health 72 ( 4 ) 267 - 268 2018.04

Accepted, ISSN 0143-005X

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Causes and risk factors for singleton stillbirth in Japan: Analysis of a nationwide perinatal database, 2013-2014.

Rei Haruyama, Stuart Gilmour, Erika Ota, Sarah K Abe, Md Mizanur Rahman, Shuhei Nomura, Naoyuki Miyasaka, Kenji Shibuya

Scientific reports 8 ( 1 ) 4117 - 4117 2018.03

Accepted, ISSN 2045-2322

Over 80% of perinatal mortality in Japan is due to stillbirths after 22 weeks of gestation, with one in 300 families experiencing fetal loss every year. This study aimed to assess causes and risk factors for singleton stillbirth in Japan. A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted using the Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology Perinatal Database from January 2013 to December 2014. A total of 379,211 births including 2,133 stillbirths were analyzed. Causes of death were classified into eight categories. A multi-level Poisson regression model was used to assess the relationship between stillbirth and key covariates. Causes of death were unknown in 25-40% of stillbirths across gestational age. Placental abnormality accounted for the largest proportion of known causes, followed by umbilical cord abnormality. Stillbirth risk was increased among small-for-gestational-age infants (adjusted relative risk [ARR]: 3.78, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.31-4.32) and nulliparous women (ARR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.05-1.35). Maternal underweight, pregnancy-induced hypertension and oligohydramnios showed a protective effect. Our finding suggests that stillbirths occurring among women with known complications are likely already being prevented. Further reduction in stillbirths must target small-sized fetuses and nulliparous women. Improved recording of the causal pathways of stillbirths is also needed.

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Comparison of external doses between radio-contaminated areas and areas with high natural terrestrial background using the individual dosimeter 'D-shuttle' 75 months after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident.

Masaharu Tsubokura, Shuhei Nomura, Izumi Yoshida, Toyoaki Sawano, Makoto Miyazaki, Satoru Tomita, Oikawa Tomoyoshi, Masami Watanabe

Journal of radiological protection : official journal of the Society for Radiological Protection 38 ( 1 ) 273 - 285 2018.03

Accepted, ISSN 0952-4746

After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the air dose gradually decreases every year due to the physical decay of radioactive materials and environmental changes, as well as countermeasures. However, there is little information on personal behavioural patterns and individual dose from external exposure among the inhabitants around the nuclear power plant. To evaluate the dose from external exposure in Minamisoma city, and compare the differences with outside Fukushima Prefecture, we started the external dose assessment project in cooperation with city officials in Minamisoma and three other cities in Japan where the natural terrestrial background radiation level is relatively high. In these four cities, external dose was measured every hour for two weeks using an individual electronic dosimeter D-shuttle. The places of activity of participants were recorded every hour to compare and evaluate the dose from external exposure, and to clarify whether there is a difference in the exposure dose by behaviour. The annual effective doses from external exposure for 100 participants from four municipalities ranged from 0.566 to 1.295 with a mean value of 0.784 mSv, which was below the level where it is necessary to initiate further remedial actions. Mean external dose in Minamisoma city (0.820 mSv/year) was comparable to those in municipalities with a relatively high natural radiation background in Japan (0.793, 0.806, and 0.718 mSv/year in Fukuyama, Nanto, and Tajimi, respectively). The time spent at home and in the workplace accounted for most of the time of the participants, and this also contributed to the majority of the total dose from external exposure. The amount of exposure at times other than while at home or in the workplace was very small regardless of the indoor or outdoor location in the city. For future dose reduction and radiation protection, continuous dosimetry and countermeasures at home and in the workplace are important for individuals who present high values.

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Demographic transition and factors associated with remaining in place after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster and related evacuation orders.

Tomohiro Morita, Shuhei Nomura, Tomoyuki Furutani, Claire Leppold, Masaharu Tsubokura, Akihiko Ozaki, Sae Ochi, Masahiro Kami, Shigeaki Kato, Tomoyoshi Oikawa

PloS one 13 ( 3 ) e0194134 2018

Accepted, ISSN 1932-6203

INTRODUCTION: Demographic changes as a result of evacuation in the acute phase of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster are not well evaluated. We estimated post-disaster demographic transitions in Minamisoma City-located 14-38 km north of the nuclear plant-in the first month of the disaster; and identified demographic factors associated with the population remaining in the affected areas. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We extracted data from the evacuation behavior survey administered to participants in the city between July 11, 2011 and April 30, 2013. Using mathematical models, we estimated the total population in the city after the disaster according to sex, age group, and administrative divisions of the city. To investigate factors associated with the population remaining in place after the disaster, a probit regression model was employed, taking into account sex, age, pre-disaster dwelling area, and household composition. RESULTS: The overall population decline in Minamisoma City peaked 11 days after the disaster, when the population reached 7,107 people-11% of the pre-disaster level. The remaining population levels differed by area: 1.1% for mandatory evacuation zone, 12.5% for indoor sheltering zone, and 12.6% for other areas of the city. Based on multiple regression analyses, higher odds for remaining in place were observed among men (odds ratio 1.72 [95% confidence intervals 1.64-1.85]) than women; among people aged 40-64 years (1.40 [1.24-1.58]) than those aged 75 years or older; and among those living with the elderly, aged 70 years or older (1.18 [1.09-1.27]) or those living alone (1.71 [1.50-1.94]) than among those who were not. DISCUSSION: Despite the evacuation order, some residents of mandatory evacuation zones remained in place, signaling the need for preparation to respond to their post-disaster needs. Indoor sheltering instructions may have accelerated voluntary evacuation, and this demonstrates the need for preventing potentially disorganized evacuation in future nuclear events.

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Assessment of medium-term cardiovascular disease risk after Japan's 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident: a retrospective analysis.

Haruka Toda, Shuhei Nomura, Stuart Gilmour, Masaharu Tsubokura, Tomoyoshi Oikawa, Kiwon Lee, Grace Y Kiyabu, Kenji Shibuya

BMJ open 7 ( 12 ) e018502 2017.12

Accepted, ISSN 2044-6055

OBJECTIVE: To assess the medium-term indirect impact of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks and to identify whether risk factors for CVD changed after the accident. PARTICIPANTS: Residents aged 40 years and over participating in annual public health check-ups from 2009 to 2012, administered by Minamisoma city, located about 10 to 40 km from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. METHODS: The sex-specific Framingham CVD risk score was considered as the outcome measure and was compared before (2009-2010) and after the accident (2011-2012). A multivariate regression analysis was employed to evaluate risk factors for CVD. RESULTS: Data from 563 individuals (60.2% women) aged 40 to 74 years who participated in the check-ups throughout the study period was analysed. After adjusting for covariates, no statistically significant change was identified in the CVD risk score postaccident in both sexes, which may suggest no obvious medium-term health impact of the Fukushima nuclear accident on CVD risk. The risk factors for CVD and their magnitude and direction (positive/negative) did not change after the accident. CONCLUSIONS: There was no obvious increase in CVD risks in Minamisoma city, which may indicate successful management of health risks associated with CVD in the study sample.

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Application of Convolutional Neural Networks in the Diagnosis of Helicobacter pylori Infection Based on Endoscopic Images.

Satoki Shichijo, Shuhei Nomura, Kazuharu Aoyama, Yoshitaka Nishikawa, Motoi Miura, Takahide Shinagawa, Hirotoshi Takiyama, Tetsuya Tanimoto, Soichiro Ishihara, Keigo Matsuo, Tomohiro Tada

EBioMedicine (ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV) 25 106 - 111 2017.11

Accepted, ISSN 2352-3964

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The role of artificial intelligence in the diagnosis of Helicobacter pylori gastritis based on endoscopic images has not been evaluated. We constructed a convolutional neural network (CNN), and evaluated its ability to diagnose H. pylori infection. METHODS: A 22-layer, deep CNN was pre-trained and fine-tuned on a dataset of 32,208 images either positive or negative for H. pylori (first CNN). Another CNN was trained using images classified according to 8 anatomical locations (secondary CNN). A separate test data set (11,481 images from 397 patients) was evaluated by the CNN, and 23 endoscopists, independently. RESULTS: The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and diagnostic time were 81.9%, 83.4%, 83.1%, and 198s, respectively, for the first CNN, and 88.9%, 87.4%, 87.7%, and 194s, respectively, for the secondary CNN. These values for the 23 endoscopists were 79.0%, 83.2%, 82.4%, and 230±65min (85.2%, 89.3%, 88.6%, and 253±92min by 6 board-certified endoscopists), respectively. The secondary CNN had a significantly higher accuracy than endoscopists (by 5.3%; 95% CI, 0.3-10.2). CONCLUSION: H. pylori gastritis could be diagnosed based on endoscopic images using CNN with higher accuracy and in a considerably shorter time compared to manual diagnosis by endoscopists.

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Decontamination Work and the Long-term Increase in Hospital Visits for Hymenoptera Stings Following the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster.

Akihiko Ozaki, Takeru Yokota, Shuhei Nomura, Masaharu Tsubokura, Claire Leppold, Tetsuya Tanimoto, Toru Miura, Kana Yamamoto, Toyoaki Sawano, Manabu Tsukada, Masahiro Kami, Yukio Kanazawa, Hiromichi Ohira

Disaster medicine and public health preparedness (CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS) 11 ( 5 ) 545 - 551 2017.10

Accepted, ISSN 1935-7893

OBJECTIVE: Animals, including arthropods, are one health threat that can be affected by disasters. This institution-based study aimed to assess trends in Hymenoptera stings following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. METHODS: We reviewed the medical records of patients with hymenopteran stings who visited Minamisoma Municipal General Hospital, located 23 km from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, from March 2005 to March 2016. Patient and sting characteristics of post-disaster patients were examined, and the annual incidence of hospital visits for hymenopteran stings was compared with the pre-disaster baseline, calculating an incidence rate ratio (IRR) for each year. RESULTS: We identified 152 pre-disaster patients (2005-2011) and 222 post-disaster patients (2011-2016). In the post-disaster period, 160 males (72.1%) were identified, with a median age of 59 years (range: 2-89 years). A total of 45 patients (20.3%) were decontamination workers. Post-disaster increases were found in the IRR for hymenopteran stings, peaking first in 2011 (IRR: 2.8; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.9-4.2) and later in 2014 (IRR: 3.2; 95% CI: 2.4-4.3) and 2015 (IRR 3.3; 95% CI: 2.5-4.4). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term increases were found in the IRR of hospital visits for hymenopteran stings in an institution affected by the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Decontamination workers appear to have been particularly affected by this phenomenon. Better disaster field worker monitoring and education about potential environmental health hazards may help to identify and prevent worker exposure to insect stings and other vectors in these settings. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:545-551).

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Excess mortality due to indirect health effects of the 2011 triple disaster in Fukushima, Japan: a retrospective observational study.

Tomohiro Morita, Shuhei Nomura, Masaharu Tsubokura, Claire Leppold, Stuart Gilmour, Sae Ochi, Akihiko Ozaki, Yuki Shimada, Kana Yamamoto, Manami Inoue, Shigeaki Kato, Kenji Shibuya, Masahiro Kami

Journal of epidemiology and community health (BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP) 71 ( 10 ) 974 - 980 2017.10

Accepted, ISSN 0143-005X

BACKGROUND: Evidence on the indirect health impacts of disasters is limited. We assessed the excess mortality risk associated with the indirect health impacts of the 2011 triple disaster (earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster) in Fukushima, Japan. METHODS: The mortality rates in Soma and Minamisoma cities in Fukushima from 2006 to 2015 were calculated using vital statistics and resident registrations. We investigated the excess mortality risk, defined as the increased mortality risk between postdisaster and predisaster after excluding direct deaths attributed to the physical force of the disaster. Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to estimate the relative risk (RR) of mortality after adjusting for city, age and year. RESULTS: There were 6163 and 6125 predisaster and postdisaster deaths, respectively. The postdisaster mortality risk was significantly higher in the first month following the disaster (March 2011) than in the same month during the predisaster period (March 2006-2010). RRs among men and women were 2.64 (95% CI 2.16 to 3.24) and 2.46 (95% CI 1.99 to 3.03), respectively, demonstrating excess mortality risk due to the indirect health effects of the disaster. Age-specific subgroup analyses revealed a significantly higher mortality risk in women aged ≥85 years in the third month of the disaster compared with predisaster baseline, with an RR (95% CI) of 1.73 (1.23 to 2.44). CONCLUSIONS: Indirect health impacts are most severe in the first month of the disaster. Early public health support, especially for the elderly, can be an important factor for reducing the indirect health effects of a disaster.

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Population health and regional variations of disease burden in Japan, 1990-2015: a systematic subnational analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

Shuhei Nomura, Haruka Sakamoto, Scott Glenn, Yusuke Tsugawa, Sarah K Abe, Md M Rahman, Jonathan C Brown, Satoshi Ezoe, Christina Fitzmaurice, Tsuyoshi Inokuchi, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Norito Kawakami, Yosuke Kita, Naoki Kondo, Stephen S Lim, Satoshi Maruyama, Hiroaki Miyata, Meghan D Mooney, Mohsen Naghavi, Tomoko Onoda, Erika Ota, Yuji Otake, Gregory A Roth, Eiko Saito, Takahiro Tabuchi, Yohsuke Takasaki, Tadayuki Tanimura, Manami Uechi, Theo Vos, Haidong Wang, Manami Inoue, Christopher J L Murray, Kenji Shibuya

Lancet (London, England) (ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC) 390 ( 10101 ) 1521 - 1538 2017.09

Accepted, ISSN 0140-6736

BACKGROUND: Japan has entered the era of super-ageing and advanced health transition, which is increasingly putting pressure on the sustainability of its health system. The level and pace of this health transition might vary across regions within Japan and concern is growing about increasing regional variations in disease burden. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive, comparable framework. We used data from GBD 2015 with the aim to quantify the burden of disease and injuries, and to attribute risk factors in Japan at a subnational, prefecture-level. METHODS: We used data from GBD 2015 for 315 causes and 79 risk factors of death, disease, and injury incidence and prevalence to measure the burden of diseases and injuries in Japan and in the 47 Japanese prefectures from 1990 to 2015. We extracted data from GBD 2015 to assess mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), life expectancy, and healthy life expectancy (HALE) in Japan and its 47 prefectures. We split extracted data by prefecture and applied GBD methods to generate estimates of burden, and attributable burden due to known risk factors. We examined the prefecture-level relationships of common health system inputs (eg, health expenditure and workforces) to the GBD outputs in 2015 to address underlying determinants of regional health variations. FINDINGS: Life expectancy at birth in Japan increased by 4·2 years from 79·0 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 79·0 to 79·0) to 83·2 years (83·1 to 83·2) between 1990 and 2015. However, the gaps between prefectures with the lowest and highest life expectancies and HALE have widened, from 2·5 to 3·1 years and from 2·3 to 2·7 years, respectively, from 1990 to 2015. Although overall age-standardised death rates decreased by 29·0% (28·7 to 29·3) from 1990 to 2015, the rates of mortality decline in this period substantially varied across the prefectures, ranging from -32·4% (-34·8 to -30·0) to -22·0% (-20·4 to -20·1). During the same time period, the rate of age-standardised DALYs was reduced overall by 19·8% (17·9 to 22·0). The reduction in rates of age-standardised YLDs was very small by 3·5% (2·6 to 4·3). The pace of reduction in mortality and DALYs in many leading causes has largely levelled off since 2005. Known risk factors accounted for 34·5% (32·4 to 36·9) of DALYs; the two leading behavioural risk factors were unhealthy diets and tobacco smoking in 2015. The common health system inputs were not associated with age-standardised death and DALY rates in 2015. INTERPRETATION: Japan has been successful overall in reducing mortality and disability from most major diseases. However, progress has slowed down and health variations between prefectures is growing. In view of the limited association between the prefecture-level health system inputs and health outcomes, the potential sources of regional variations, including subnational health system performance, urgently need assessment. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Japan Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture, Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, AXA CR Fixed Income Fund and AXA Research Fund.

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