Ishii, Futoshi

写真a

Affiliation

Faculty of Economics （Mita）

Position

Professor
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Career 【 Display / hide 】

  • 1991.04
    -
    2005.08

    Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

  • 2005.08
    -
    2012.03

    National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Senior Researcher

  • 2012.04
    -
    2019.03

    National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Department of Population Dynamics Research, Director

  • 2019.04
    -
    Present

    Keio University, Faculty of Economics, Professor

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Academic Degrees 【 Display / hide 】

  • Ph.D., University of California, Berkeley, 2014.12

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Research Areas 【 Display / hide 】

  • Demography

  • Actuarial Science

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Research Keywords 【 Display / hide 】

  • Demography

  • Mortality Analysis

  • Mathematical Demography

  • 年金数理

  • Sampling Method

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Books 【 Display / hide 】

  • Modeling Shifting Mortality, and Its Applications

    ISHII, Futoshi, Springer, 2023.08

    　View Summary

    This book describes a novel method for mortality modeling applying the shifting feature of the mortality curve. In Japan, the increase and pace of the extension in life expectancy have been quite remarkable. Therefore, existing mortality models often cannot capture the peculiarities of Japanese mortality, nor can the Lee–Carter model, which is now regarded internationally as a standard model. One of the important concepts to model recent Japanese mortality is a shifting feature. In this book, the linear difference model, which has many advantages for modeling and analyzing Japanese mortality, is introduced. The book shows applications of the model to mortality projection with a tangent vector field approach and decomposition of the change of modal age at death. The models introduced here are useful tools for modeling mortality with strong shifting features, as in Japan.

  • 長寿・健康の人口学

    金子　隆一, 石井　太（編著）, 原書房, 2021.11

  • Earthquakes and Their Impacts on Mortality in Japan

    BEPPU, Motomi and ISHII, Futoshi, Hara Shobo, 2021

    Scope: 井上孝・和田光平(編著)『自然災害と人口』, 第4章, pp.75-98.

  • Centenarians and Supercentenarians in Japan

    Saito Y., Ishii F., Robine J.M., Demographic Research Monographs, 2021

    　View Summary

    In this chapter, we use censuses, lists of centenarians, and vital statistics to describe the demography of centenarians, defined as the group of people who are 100 years old or older. We also refer to the group of people between the ages of 105 and 109 as semi-supercentenarians. Finally, we refer to those individuals who reach the age of 110 and beyond as supercentenarians. Although our ability to describe centenarians using these data is currently very limited, censuses and the lists of centenarians can be used to determine the number of people who survive to age 100 or older. Moreover, vital statistics provides the number of deaths, by single year of age and by sex, for those who died above the age of 100 since 1899. Our study examines trends in the highest ages at death for each year between 1963 and 2015, and shows increasing trends during this period. Using the number of deaths and applying the extinct cohort method, we estimate the level of mortality of people aged 100 or older, as well as trends in mortality. We observe decreasing trends in mortality levels among people who have reached very high ages, even as mortality continues to increase with age until very high ages.

  • Impacts of Fertility Levels on the Dynamics of Long-range Populations

    ISHII, Futoshi, Keio University Press, 2020

    Scope: 津谷典子・菅桂太・四方理人・吉田千鶴(編著)『人口変動と家族の実証分析』,第1章, pp.27-46.

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Papers 【 Display / hide 】

  • 日本の将来推計人口（令和５年推計）『結果概要』について－出生率低下，平均寿命の延伸，外国人の入国超過増が示す50年後の社会

    岩澤　美帆, 別府　志海, 余田　翔平, 守泉　理恵, 吉田　航, 是川　夕, 石井　太

    厚生の指標 （厚生労働統計協会)  70 （ 12 ） 30 - 38 2023.10

    Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work

  • 将来人口推計と財政検証の関係について

    石井　太

    企業年金 42 （ 1 ） 20 - 23 2023.01

    Research paper (other academic), Single Work, Lead author

  • Analysis of the Mortality Trends in Japan after the Outbreak of COVID-19

    ISHII, Futoshi

    Journal of Population Problems （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)  78 （ 4 ） 460 - 476 2022.12

    Research paper (scientific journal), Single Work, Lead author

  • フレイルティモデルを用いたわが国の悪性新生物コーホート死亡率の動向の検討

    都築　英莉, 石井　太

    厚生の指標 （(一財)厚生労働統計協会)  69 （ 11 ） 30 - 35 2022.09

    Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work

  • Classification of Causes of Death for the Japanese Mortality Database and Its Application to Mortality Analysis

    ISHII, Futoshi

    Journal of Population Problems （National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)  78 （ 1 ） 32 - 55 2022.03

    Research paper (scientific journal), Single Work, Lead author

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Papers, etc., Registered in KOARA 【 Display / hide 】

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Reviews, Commentaries, etc. 【 Display / hide 】

  • 人口減少と少子化対策

    石井　太

    国民衛生の動向 2023/2024 (厚生労働統計協会)     70 - 70 2023.10

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (scientific journal), Single Work

  • Population Projections for Japan: 2016-2065

    ISHII, Futoshi, Miho IWASAWA, Rie MORIZUMI, Motomi BEPPU, Yu KOREKAWA, Shohei YODA and Tsukasa SASAI

    Journal of Population Problems (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)  73 ( 3 ) 196 - 205 2017

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (scientific journal), Joint Work

  • The 15th Japanese National Fertility Survey

    ISHII, Futoshi, Saori KAMANO, Miho IWASAWA, Rie MORIZUMI, Motomi BEPPU,Yu KOREKAWA, Shohei YODA, Mariko NAKAMURA and Yuriko SHINTANI

    Journal of Population Problems (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)  72 ( 4 ) 350 - 355 2016

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (scientific journal), Joint Work

  • II. Population Projections for Japan (Special Issue I: 75th Anniversary of Institute of Population Problems -Recolections of 25 Years after the 50th Anniversary (1989-2014)-)

    ISHII, Futoshi

    Journal of Population Problems (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)  70 ( 4 ) 352 - 358 2014

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (scientific journal), Single Work

  • XI. Cooperation for Council on Population Problems (Special Issue I: 75th Anniversary of Institute of Population Problems -Recolections of 25 Years after the 50th Anniversary (1989-2014)-)

    ISHII, Futoshi

    Journal of Population Problems (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)  70 ( 4 ) 410 - 414 2014

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (scientific journal), Single Work

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Presentations 【 Display / hide 】

  • Population Projections for Japan: Summary of the 2023 Revision

    IWASAWA Miho, BEPPU Motomi, YODA Shohei, KOREKAWA Yu, MORIIZUMI Rie, YOSHIDA Wataru, ISHII Futoshi

    Population Association of America 2024 Annual Meeting (Columbus, Ohio) , 

    2024.04
    , 

    Poster presentation, Population Association of America

  • 人口学方法論の基礎

    石井　太

    (公社) 日本年金数理人会2023年度実務研修会, 

    2024.02
    , 

    Public lecture, seminar, tutorial, course, or other speech

  • 将来人口推計を考えるー社人研・国連の手法と留意点ー

    石井　太

    (公社) 日本経済研究センター「長期経済予測勉強会」, 

    2023.12
    , 

    Oral presentation (general)

  • 配偶関係別多相生命表による人口分析とその応用

    石井　太

    ファイナンシャル・ジェロントロジー研究センター研究会, 

    2023.11
    , 

    Oral presentation (general)

  • 「日本の将来推計人口 (令和 5 年推計)」の 推計手法・仮定設定、推計結果とその応用

    石井　太

    第97回社会保障審議会年金数理部会 (コモレ四谷タワーコンファレンス) , 

    2023.11
    , 

    Oral presentation (keynote), 厚生労働省

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Courses Taught 【 Display / hide 】

  • TOPICS IN SOCIETY AND ENVIRONMENT

    2024

  • SEMINAR: SOCIETY AND ENVIRONMENT

    2024

  • SEMINAR: DEMOGRAPHY

    2024

  • RESEARCH SEMINAR D

    2024

  • RESEARCH SEMINAR C

    2024

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Memberships in Academic Societies 【 Display / hide 】

  • Population Association of America, 

    2005
    -
    Present

  • Population Association of Japan, 

    2003
    -
    Present

  • The Japan Statistical Society, 

    1991
    -
    Present
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