Details of a Researcher - Ishii, Futoshi

Ishii, Futoshi

写真a

Affiliation: Faculty of Economics (Mita)

Position: Professor

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Career 【 Display / hide 】

1991.04

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2005.08

Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare
2005.08

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2012.03

National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Senior Researcher
2012.04

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2019.03

National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Department of Population Dynamics Research, Director
2019.04

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Present

Keio University, Faculty of Economics, Professor

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Academic Degrees 【 Display / hide 】

Ph.D., University of California, Berkeley, 2014.12

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Research Areas 【 Display / hide 】

Demography
Actuarial Science

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Research Keywords 【 Display / hide 】

Demography
Mortality Analysis
Mathematical Demography
年金数理
Sampling Method

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Books 【 Display / hide 】

Modeling Shifting Mortality, and Its Applications

ISHII, Futoshi, Springer, 2023.08

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This book describes a novel method for mortality modeling applying the shifting feature of the mortality curve. In Japan, the increase and pace of the extension in life expectancy have been quite remarkable. Therefore, existing mortality models often cannot capture the peculiarities of Japanese mortality, nor can the Lee–Carter model, which is now regarded internationally as a standard model. One of the important concepts to model recent Japanese mortality is a shifting feature. In this book, the linear difference model, which has many advantages for modeling and analyzing Japanese mortality, is introduced. The book shows applications of the model to mortality projection with a tangent vector field approach and decomposition of the change of modal age at death. The models introduced here are useful tools for modeling mortality with strong shifting features, as in Japan.
- Access to Document (DOI)
長寿・健康の人口学

金子　隆一, 石井　太（編著）, 原書房, 2021.11
Earthquakes and Their Impacts on Mortality in Japan

BEPPU, Motomi and ISHII, Futoshi, Hara Shobo, 2021

Scope: 井上孝・和田光平(編著)『自然災害と人口』, 第4章, pp.75-98.
Centenarians and Supercentenarians in Japan

Saito Y., Ishii F., Robine J.M., Demographic Research Monographs, 2021

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In this chapter, we use censuses, lists of centenarians, and vital statistics to describe the demography of centenarians, defined as the group of people who are 100 years old or older. We also refer to the group of people between the ages of 105 and 109 as semi-supercentenarians. Finally, we refer to those individuals who reach the age of 110 and beyond as supercentenarians. Although our ability to describe centenarians using these data is currently very limited, censuses and the lists of centenarians can be used to determine the number of people who survive to age 100 or older. Moreover, vital statistics provides the number of deaths, by single year of age and by sex, for those who died above the age of 100 since 1899. Our study examines trends in the highest ages at death for each year between 1963 and 2015, and shows increasing trends during this period. Using the number of deaths and applying the extinct cohort method, we estimate the level of mortality of people aged 100 or older, as well as trends in mortality. We observe decreasing trends in mortality levels among people who have reached very high ages, even as mortality continues to increase with age until very high ages.
Impacts of Fertility Levels on the Dynamics of Long-range Populations

ISHII, Futoshi, Keio University Press, 2020

Scope: 津谷典子・菅桂太・四方理人・吉田千鶴(編著)『人口変動と家族の実証分析』,第1章, pp.27-46.

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Papers 【 Display / hide 】

Population Projections Using Marital Status Multistate Life Tables

ISHII, Futoshi, BEPPU, Motomi, YODA, Shohei, IWASAWA, Miho, HORIGUCHI, Yu

Journal of Population Problems (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research) 80 ( 3 ) 365 - 384 2024.09

Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Lead author
- Access to Document (DOI)
Marital Status Multistate Life Tables: Basic Concepts and Methods

ISHII, Futoshi

Journal of Population Problems (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research) 80 ( 3 ) 301 - 325 2024.09

Research paper (scientific journal), Single Work, Lead author
- Access to Document (DOI)
Multistate Life Tables on Marital Status: A Period and Cohort Analysis of the Japanese Life Course from 1980 to 2021 and Birth Cohorts from 1965 to 1985

BEPPU, Motomi, ISHII, Futoshi, YODA, Shohei, IWASAWA, Miho, HORIGUCHI, Yu

Journal of Population Problems (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research) 80 ( 3 ) 326 - 343 2024.09

Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work
- Access to Document (DOI)
Marriage Behavior in Preindustrial Northeastern Japanese Villages: An Analysis Using Marital Status Multistate Life Tables

TSUYA, Noriko, KUROSU, Satomi, ISHII, Futoshi

Journal of Population Problems (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research) 80 ( 3 ) 344 - 364 2024.09

Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work
- Access to Document (DOI)
Senility deaths in aged societies: The case of Japan

Hayashi R., Imanaga T., Marui E., Kinoshita H., Ishii F., Shinohara E., Beppu M.

Global Health and Medicine 6 ( 1 ) 40 - 48 2024

ISSN 24349186

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Senility is now the third largest cause of death in Japan, comprising 11.4% of the total number of deaths in 2022. Although senility deaths were common in the period before the Second World War, they declined sharply from 1950 to 2000 and then increased up to the present. The recent increase is more than what we could expect from an increasing number of very old persons or the increasing number of deaths at facilities. The senility death description in the death certificate is becoming poorer, with 93.8% of them only with a single entry of "senility". If other diseases are mentioned, those are again vague diseases or conditions. Senility, dementia and Alzheimer's disease, sequelae of cerebrovascular disease, and heart failure are the largest causes of death in which senility is mentioned in the death certificate. The period from senility onset to death is often described within a few months, but it varies. In some cases, the deceased's age was written out of a conviction that the ageing process starts from birth. As senility is perceived differently among the certifying doctors, a standardised protocol to certify the senility death is needed. On the other hand, senility death is the preferred cause of death and many people do not wish to receive invasive medical examinations before dying peacefully. Together with other causes of death related to frailty, there would be a need to capture senility as a proper cause of death, not just as a garbage code, in the aged, low-mortality population.
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Papers, etc., Registered in KOARA 【 Display / hide 】

Methodology and its background of the official population projections

Ishii, Futoshi

Mita journal of economics (慶應義塾経済学会) 112 ( 4 ) 379 (15) - 397 (33) 2020.01

ISSN 00266760

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Reviews, Commentaries, etc. 【 Display / hide 】

人口減少と少子化対策

石井　太

国民衛生の動向 2023/2024 (厚生労働統計協会) 70 - 70 2023.10

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (scientific journal), Single Work
Population Projections for Japan: 2016-2065

ISHII, Futoshi, Miho IWASAWA, Rie MORIZUMI, Motomi BEPPU, Yu KOREKAWA, Shohei YODA and Tsukasa SASAI

Journal of Population Problems (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research) 73 ( 3 ) 196 - 205 2017

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (scientific journal), Joint Work
The 15th Japanese National Fertility Survey

ISHII, Futoshi, Saori KAMANO, Miho IWASAWA, Rie MORIZUMI, Motomi BEPPU,Yu KOREKAWA, Shohei YODA, Mariko NAKAMURA and Yuriko SHINTANI

Journal of Population Problems (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research) 72 ( 4 ) 350 - 355 2016

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (scientific journal), Joint Work
II. Population Projections for Japan (Special Issue I: 75th Anniversary of Institute of Population Problems -Recolections of 25 Years after the 50th Anniversary (1989-2014)-)

ISHII, Futoshi

Journal of Population Problems (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research) 70 ( 4 ) 352 - 358 2014

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (scientific journal), Single Work
XI. Cooperation for Council on Population Problems (Special Issue I: 75th Anniversary of Institute of Population Problems -Recolections of 25 Years after the 50th Anniversary (1989-2014)-)

ISHII, Futoshi

Journal of Population Problems (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research) 70 ( 4 ) 410 - 414 2014

Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (scientific journal), Single Work

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Presentations 【 Display / hide 】

死亡率の期待値と実績値の乖離分析ー 2020 年以降の死亡動向の評価ー

石井　太

公益社団法人日本アクチュアリー会健康・医療研究会,

2025.03
,
Public lecture, seminar, tutorial, course, or other speech
市区町村別にみた死亡率は2020年以後変化したのか？

菅　桂太, 小池　司朗, 藤井　多希子, 石井　太

日本人口学会第76回大会 (中央大学) ,

2024.06
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Oral presentation (general), 日本人口学会
月別に拡張した「日本版死亡データベース」による死亡率の期待値と実績値の乖離分析

石井　太, 別府　志海, 菅　桂太, 堀口　侑

日本人口学会第76回大会 (中央大学) ,

2024.06
,
Oral presentation (general), 日本人口学会
Population Projections for Japan: Summary of the 2023 Revision

IWASAWA Miho, BEPPU Motomi, YODA Shohei, KOREKAWA Yu, MORIIZUMI Rie, YOSHIDA Wataru, ISHII Futoshi

Population Association of America 2024 Annual Meeting (Columbus, Ohio) ,

2024.04
,
Poster presentation, Population Association of America
人口学方法論の基礎

石井　太

(公社) 日本年金数理人会2023年度実務研修会,

2024.02
,
Public lecture, seminar, tutorial, course, or other speech