Presentations -

Dynamic Sources of Growth: TFP Change and Capital Accumulation

Mun S. Ho, Koji Nomura, and Jon D. Samuels

The 8th World KLEMS Conference (International House of Japan, Roppongi, Tokyo) , 

2025.03

, 

Oral presentation (general)

　View Summary

We identify and measure two impacts of industry-level total factor productivity (TFP) growth on aggregate price change in the U.S. and Japan. The first is a standard effect from the definition of aggregate GDP. TFP change lowers aggregate prices ceteris paribus. The second is that a change in TFP in the production of investment goods lowers the cost of capital via lower investment prices. We call this the cost-of-capital effect and formulate an expanded growth accounting framework to capture both effects. We apply it to a harmonized dataset for the two countries and find that the standard effect has fallen since the peak around 2000 due to lower TFP growth and a diminished share of GDP. However, the cost-of-capital effect has risen in importance and offsets part of this decline in the standard effect.

Estimating Flexible Functional Forms Using Macroeconomic Data

W. Erwin Diewert, Koji Nomura, and Chihiro Shimizu

The 8th World KLEMS Conference (International House of Japan, Roppongi, Tokyo) , 

2025.03

, 

Oral presentation (general)

　View Summary

The paper estimates a flexible functional form for a joint cost function using US aggregate data for the years 1970-2022. There are four outputs (consumption, government, investment and exports) and six inputs (imports, labour, machinery and equipment services, structure services, other capital services and land services). Curvature conditions on the joint cost function are imposed without destroying the flexibility of the functional form. Various elasticities of supply and demand are estimated along with technical progress bias terms for each input. When using aggregate time series data based on the System of National Accounts, the paper shows that it is probably better to estimate a joint cost function rather than a gross output function or a GDP function. The paper also shows that assuming that an aggregate production function has constant elasticities of substitution is not appropriate for the US. Finally, the importance of including land as an aggregate input is stressed.

"Challenges and Directions for Climate Change Measures that are Compatible with Strengthening Industrial Competitiveness" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Global Environment Subcommittee, Keidanren Environment Committee (Keidanren Kaikan) , 

2025.03

, 

Public lecture, seminar, tutorial, course, or other speech, Keidanren

"Soaring Energy Prices and Increasing Real Price Level Index" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

RITE ALPS IV Economic Analysis Working Group, 

2025.02

, 

Oral presentation (general), RITE

"SBI High-Resolution Sectoral General Equilibrium Model for Assessing Business, Innovation, and Policy (SBI-BIP)" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

"Reseach on Japanese Economy in 2040", 

2025.02

, 

Oral presentation (general), SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute

"Indirect Steel Trade in the Postwar Japanese Economy" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

日本鉄鋼連盟との会合 (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University) , 

2025.02

, 

Oral presentation (general)

"Energy and Economy - Economic and Social Insights Engineers Should Have" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

AICE講演会, 

2025.01

, 

Public lecture, seminar, tutorial, course, or other speech, AICE

"The Impact of GX Promotion on Domestic Industry: Similarities and Differences between the Japanese and German Economies" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Energy System Research Group, 

2025.01

, 

Oral presentation (general), APIR

"Recent Steel Production Decline in Japan" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

RITE ALPS IV Economic Analysis Working Group, 

2024.12

, 

Oral presentation (general), RITE

Overview of Data Issues and Challenges for Developing Bhutan's Productivity Account

Koji Nomura

Workshop on Productivity Account for Bhutan (Thimphu, Bhutan) , 

2024.10

, 

Public lecture, seminar, tutorial, course, or other speech, Ministry of Finance, Royal Government of Bhutan

Key Findings and Concepts of Bhutan's Productivity Account

Koji Nomura

Workshop on Productivity Account for Bhutan (Thimphu, Bhutan) , 

2024.10

, 

Public lecture, seminar, tutorial, course, or other speech, Ministry of Finance, Royal Government of Bhutan

"Recent Trends in Steel Production and Accelerating Carbon Leakage"

Koji Nomura

Working Group on Steel Carbon Neutrality and Economic Growth Assessment (Tekko Kaikan) , 

2024.09

, 

Oral presentation (general), The Iron and Steel Institute of Japan

"Is Hasty Energy Transition Distorting Economic Growth?" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

RITE ALPS IV , 

2024.09

, 

Oral presentation (general), RITE

"Energy Cost Burden and Energy-Intensive Industries in Major Countries" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

7th GX Expert Working Group, GX Implementation Council, 

2024.08

, 

Oral presentation (invited, special), Cabinet Secretariat

"High and Stable Energy Costs and Decline in EITE Manufacturing Production" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

RITE ALPS IV Economic Analysis Working Group, 

2024.07

, 

Oral presentation (general), RITE

"GX (Green Transformation) and the Japanese Economy of 2040" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

"Reseach on Japanese Economy in 2040", 

2024.06

, 

Oral presentation (general), SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute

"Japanese Industries' Competitivenss and Energy Transition" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Research Institute of Capital Formation Academic Seminor, 

2024.06

, 

Public lecture, seminar, tutorial, course, or other speech, Develpment Bank of Japan

"Soundly Questioning the “Evidence”: How to Understand Energy Productivity Improvement" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

PwC Japan, 

2024.04

, 

Public lecture, seminar, tutorial, course, or other speech

"Structure and Impact of Post-Pandemic RUEC Surges in Major Countries" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

RITE ALPS IV , 

2024.03

, 

Oral presentation (general), RITE

"Sources of Energy Price Hikes in Major Industrialized Countries - Development of Multilateral ECM" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

RITE ALPS IV Economic Analysis Working Group, 

2024.03

, 

Oral presentation (general), RITE