KEIO RESEARCHERS INFORMATION SYSTEM

Career 【 Display / hide 】

Career 【 Display / hide 】

• 1996.04

  -

  2003.03

  Keio University,, Keio Economic Observatory,, Assistant Professor

• 2003.04

  -

  2005.03

  Harvard University,, Kennedy School of Government,, CBG fellow

• 2003.04

  -

  2017.03

  Keio University,, Keio Economic Observatory,, Associate Professor

• 2005.07

  -

  2008.09

  Cabinet Office, Government of Japan,, ESRI (Economic Social Research Institute),, Visiting Fellow

• 2006.11

  -

  2007.08

  OECD, STI (Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry),, Economist

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Academic Background 【 Display / hide 】

Academic Background 【 Display / hide 】

• 1989.03

  Hakodate Chubu High School, Hokkaido

  Graduated

• 1993.03

  Keio University, Faculty of Business and Commerce

  University, Graduated

• 1995.03

  Keio University, Graduate School of Business and Commerce

  Graduate School, Completed, Master's course

• 1998.03

  Keio University, Graduate School of Business and Commerce

  Graduate School, Withdrawal after completion of doctoral course requirements, Doctoral course

Academic Degrees 【 Display / hide 】

Academic Degrees 【 Display / hide 】

• M.A., Keio University, Coursework, 1995.03

• Ph.D, Keio University, Dissertation, 2005

Research Areas 【 Display / hide 】

Research Areas 【 Display / hide 】

• Humanities & Social Sciences / Economic statistics

• Humanities & Social Sciences / Economic policy

Research Keywords 【 Display / hide 】

Research Keywords 【 Display / hide 】

• Economic Growth, Capital and Productivity

• Energy and Environment

• Labor Input and Human Capital

• Japanese and Asian Economies

Books 【 Display / hide 】

Books 【 Display / hide 】

• Non-Governmental Energy Basic Plan (7th Edition) (in Japanese)

  Taishi Sugiyama and Koji Nomura (eds.), Yutaka Iikura, Yoshiaki Oka, Tomohiko Okano, Koko Kato, Masami Kojima, Tetsuo Sawada, Naoki Tatsumi, Hiroshi Tanaka, Naoki Toda, Haruhisa Nakazawa, Tsuruhiko Nambu, Koji Hirai, Satoshi Matsuda, Yoshihiro Muronaka, Hitoshi Yakushiin, Ryuzo Yamamoto, Masayuki Yamaguchi, and Tadashi Watanabe, 2026.05,  Page： 290

  　View Summary

  第7版は、第6版から大幅に拡充。最大の変更点は現状認識I章の全面再編で、新たにI.2「気候変動の科学的知見」を独立章として新設（12節構成）。第6版II.10に収録されていた気候科学関連の節を移管・拡充し、気候科学そのものへの批判的検証を体系化した。I.1（脱炭素政策の弊害）には「日独における鉄鋼の生産減退」「再エネ主力電源化の問題点」「再エネ開発と地域社会の衝突」など3節を新設。第6版のI.2（人為的温暖化論の社会学）はI.3に繰り下げ「メディアと言論行動のメカニズム」「気候変動言論の構造的収斂」の2節を追加、I.3（世界的に後退する脱炭素政策）はI.4に繰り下げ欧州グリーン実験の総括・米国火力復活・2025年の転換点など3節を追加した。政策提言のII章では、化石燃料章（II.3）に「ホルムズ海峡危機対応」を冒頭節として新設し、電力需給シナリオ・石炭サプライチェーン・固定費回収問題など4節を追加。エネルギーコスト章（II.1）に「GXは戦後最大級の政策的失敗である」など3節を新設。自動車章（II.5）には「日本自動車産業の現状と競争力」を冒頭節として追加。省エネ規制章（II.7）は2節から4節に全面改訂。電気事業制度章（II.8）には「自由化10年の総括—官製市場の失敗」1節を新設した。

  • Access to Document (DOI)

• APO Productivity Databook 2025

  Koji Nomura and Mun S. Ho, Asian Productivity Organization, Keio University Press, 2025.09,  Page： 219

  　View Summary

  The 18th edition of the APO Productivity Databook provides standardized productivity and growth comparisons across 33 Asian economies and several global reference countries. Spanning more than five decades (1970–2023), it evaluates Asia’s structural transformation, post-COVID-19 recovery, and projections through 2035. Productivity enhancement is emphasized as the foundation of sustainable long-term growth, either by increasing output with given inputs or by maintaining output while reducing resource use. Enhancing national productivity metrics remains a fundamental policy imperative. To support this goal, the Databook systematically evaluates historical performance and prospects based on harmonized data and robust methodologies. It establishes baseline indicators of economic growth and productivity across 33 Asian economies, including the 21 APO members and 12 non-member Asian countries. The APO21 consists of Bangladesh, Cambodia, the Republic of China (ROC), Fiji, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, the Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran), Japan, the Republic of Korea (Korea), the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Malaysia, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkiye, and Vietnam. The twelve non-member economies in Asia are Afghanistan, the Kingdom of Bhutan (Bhutan), Brunei Darussalam (Brunei), the People’s Republic of China (China), the Maldives, Myanmar, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), consisting of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Afghanistan and the Maldives are being incorporated for the first time in the 2025 edition. In addition, Australia, the European Union (EU), France, Italy, Germany, New Zealand, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US) are included as reference economies.

  • Access to Document (DOI)

• Hydropower-Led Economic Growth in Bhutan: Development of Industry-Level Productivity Account, 1990–2022

  Koji Nomura, Contemporary South Asian Studies, Springer, 2025.05,  Page： 259

  　View Summary

  This book provides a comprehensive analysis of Bhutan’s economic growth and productivity dynamics from 1990 to 2022, with a special focus on hydropower development. Through the construction of detailed industry-level productivity accounts, the study addresses significant data gaps in Bhutan’s national accounts, measuring outputs and inputs across various sectors and developing quality-adjusted labor and capital input series. The analysis reveals the complexities of Bhutan’s hydropower-led growth strategy: while the sector has driven substantial economic growth, its contribution to overall productivity improvement has been limited. The electricity sector shows gains in labor productivity but declining capital productivity, resulting in stagnant Total Factor Productivity (TFP). The study also examines productivity trends in non-electricity sectors and addresses potential “Dutch disease” effects on manufacturing and agricultural competitiveness. International comparisons place Bhutan’s productivity performance in a regional context, revealing significant gaps in productivity performance, particularly when compared to India, Bhutan’s largest trading partner and a regional economic benchmark. This comparative analysis informs policy recommendations for achieving more balanced and sustainable economic growth. The findings are particularly relevant for Bhutan’s Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (2024–2029), which emphasizes productivity improvements across all economic sectors. The book serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, economists, and researchers interested in development economics, particularly those focused on the unique challenges faced by small, landlocked nations pursuing sustainable economic development.

  • Access to Document (DOI)

• Energy Productivity and Economic Growth: Experiences of the Japanese Industries, 1955–2019

  Koji Nomura, Springer, 2023.01,  Page： 268

  　View Summary

  Energy costs in the economy amount to only a few percent of gross domestic product, but their importance to economic growth is much greater than their apparent number. Energy is used in almost all production and consumption activities, and energy price changes induce significant spillover effects throughout the economic system. More importantly, stable and affordable access to energy is a critical factor in determining the rate of capital accumulation in a domestic economy and, hence, labor productivity growth. The expansion of production per hour worked is achieved by using more and higher quality capital, which requires more energy to operate. This book aims to provide robust observational facts on energy productivity improvement (EPI) and to analyze the mechanisms of EPI achieved in Japan’s economic growth from 1955 to 2019. Linking the productivity account with energy statistics enables us to attempt not only to develop a better indicator of energy productivity but also to evaluate the EPI with other significant changes in the production process, such as capital productivity, labor productivity, and even the overall efficiency measured in terms of total factor productivity. This book is a valuable resource for researchers and policymakers seeking to understand the role of energy throughout the economy and for economic planners seeking to ensure the efficient use of energy now and into the future.

  • Access to Document (DOI)

• Energy Productivity in Japan's Economic Growth: Exploring Possibilities for Balancing Economy and Environment (in Japanese)

  Koji Nomura, Keio University Press, 2021.06,  Page： 288

  　View Summary

  This book reexamines the sources of Japan’s long-term economic stagnation from the perspectives of energy constraints and productivity. Although energy appears as a relatively small cost component in GDP, it constitutes a fundamental input underpinning capital utilization and labor productivity. Its price level and supply structure therefore exert a substantial influence on medium- to long-term economic growth.
  
  Using long-term data covering the period since 1885 at the macro level and since 1955 at the industry level, the book analyzes the dynamics of energy productivity (EPI). It develops a productivity accounting framework that integrates energy quality, industrial structure, and technological change. In addition, by employing indicators such as the real unit energy cost (RUEC) and the effective import dependency of electricity (EID), the book examines Japan’s resilience to energy price changes and its structural vulnerabilities in an international comparative context.
  
  The empirical findings suggest that recent energy and environmental policies in Japan, rather than promoting growth through improvements in energy productivity, may have constrained economic growth by suppressing capital accumulation and slowing total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The book concludes by redefining the conditions under which economic growth and environmental policy can be reconciled, and provides a foundation for designing effective energy policies.

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Papers 【 Display / hide 】

Papers 【 Display / hide 】

• "Declining Energy Cost Competitiveness in Japan and Europe — A Real PLI–Based Comparison of Nine Major Economies and Threshold Effects on EITE Output" (in Japanese)

  Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

  DBJ Discussion Paper Series (Research Institute of Capital Formation, Development Bank of Japan)   ( 2502 ) 1 - 33 2026.03

  Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

  　View Summary

  This paper examines international energy cost competitiveness using real price conditions rather than exchange-rate-based nominal comparisons. Focusing on nine major economies—Japan, China, Korea, India, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and the U.S.—we construct a Real Price Level Index for energy (Real PLI) based on value-added prices using the ECM Database and extend the measurement through the fourth quarter of 2025. The results indicate that, in the post-pandemic period, real energy price differentials have persistently widened in Japan, Korea, and several European economies relative to the U.S. and to China and India. We further investigate the relationship between Real PLI and the output of energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) industries. Panel threshold regressions reveal significant nonlinear effects: once Real PLI exceeds estimated critical levels, EITE production declines sharply. In contrast, no statistically significant threshold effect is detected for China and India. The paper also shows that recent improvements in Gross Energy Productivity (GEP) and the apparent stabilization of Real Unit Energy Costs (RUEC) in advanced economies partly reflect structural shifts—specifically, the relative contraction of EITE sectors—rather than purely technological efficiency gains. While such structural adjustment may reduce macroeconomic sensitivity to energy price shocks, it simultaneously implies declining domestic basic-material production capacity and greater external dependence. These findings suggest that persistently adverse real energy price conditions act as structural constraints on industrial location and investment decisions.

• "How Does the Social Implementation of Technological Innovation Transform the Japanese Economy?—Visualizing Structural Change with the High-Resolution Economic Model BIP" (in Japanese)

  Koji Nomura

  SBI Research Review (SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute)  9   27 - 49 2026.02

  Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

  　View Summary

  This paper develops a high-resolution economic model, BIP, designed to evaluate the macroeconomic impacts of the social implementation of technological innovation in Japan. The BIP framework visualizes how technological innovations propagate across economic activities through structural transformation and aims to capture multiple dimensions of the economy—production, employment, income distribution, and energy consumption—within a consistent general equilibrium framework. Two scenarios are examined. The first is a business-as-usual (BaU) trajectory that extends the stagnation observed in the Japanese economy, while the second is a technology and social implementation (TSI) scenario in which technological innovations are widely adopted across society. The analysis traces the divergence between these scenarios toward 2040. Under the TSI scenario, the service sector expands significantly; however, the core growth mechanism remains the reconstruction of an industrial foundation centered on manufacturing. Relative to the BaU baseline, nominal value added increases by ¥257 trillion, of which ¥132 trillion is attributable to productivity improvements and market expansion associated with the adoption of artificial intelligence. These productivity gains simultaneously enable shorter working hours and rising wages, while also promoting domestic capital accumulation supported by affordable and stable electricity supply. The results suggest that technological innovation of this kind could fundamentally alter the long-term growth trajectory of the Japanese economy.

• "Measuring Real Energy Price Gaps: The Real PLI Framework for Competitiveness Monitoring"

  Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

  Sustainability 18 ( 1 )  2026.01

  Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Corresponding author, Accepted

  　View Summary

  Global energy markets have experienced persistent dispersion in real energy prices, creating structural competitiveness pressures that standard indicators often fail to capture in real time. These pressures have intensified as energy-intensive sectors face asymmetric exposure across advanced and emerging economies. This study addresses two critical gaps in international energy cost competitiveness. The first is a frequency gap: conventional indicators such as the Real Unit Energy Cost (RUEC) are typically published with delays of 2–5 years, limiting their usefulness for timely policy evalua-tion. Here, both RUEC and the Real Price Level Index for energy (Real PLI)—the ratio of the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for energy to that for GDP—are measured with only a 2–3-month lag for nine countries—four in Asia, four in Europe, and the U.S. The second is a competitiveness gap that calls for policy responses. Real PLIs indicate that the energy price disadvantages of Japan, Korea, France, Germany, Italy, and the UK have widened from 1.76–2.91 times the U.S. level before the pandemic to 2.14–3.28 times by Q3 2025, with the gaps relative to China and India also widening. Once coun-try-specific thresholds are exceeded, output in energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) industries tends to contract disproportionately. These findings highlight that sustainable transitions require not only internationally differentiated burden-sharing but also structural reforms to avoid persistent widening of energy price gaps. The Real PLI framework provides a timely indicator of competitiveness and an early-warning tool, signaling when growing asymmetries may undermine policy feasibility. Policy implications include the need to monitor real energy price dispersion as a core source of competitiveness risk, to strengthen structural measures that stabilize marginal en-ergy costs, and to design transition pathways that account for heterogeneous adjust-ment pressures across countries.

  • Access to Document (DOI)

• "Measuring Real Energy Price Gaps: The Real PLI Framework for Competitiveness Monitoring"

  Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

  Preprints.org  2025.11

  Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.), Joint Work, Corresponding author

  　View Summary

  This study addresses two critical gaps in international energy cost competitiveness. The first is a frequency gap: conventional indicators such as the Real Unit Energy Cost (RUEC) are typically published with delays of 2–5 years, limiting their usefulness for timely policy evaluation. Here, both RUEC and the Real Price Level Index for energy (Real PLI)—the ratio of the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for energy to that for GDP—are measured with only a 2–3 month lag for nine countries—four in Asia, four in Europe, and the U.S. The second is a competitiveness gap that calls for policy re-sponses. Real PLIs indicate that the energy price disadvantages of Japan, Korea, France, Germany, Italy, and the UK have widened from about 1.8–2.9 times the U.S. level before the pandemic to 2.2–3.3 times by Q2 2025, with gaps also increasing rela-tive to China and India. Once country-specific thresholds are exceeded, output in en-ergy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) industries tends to contract disproportion-ately. These findings highlight that sustainable transitions require not only interna-tionally differentiated burden-sharing but also structural reforms to avoid persistent widening of energy price gaps. The Real PLI framework offers a timely competitiveness indicator and early-warning tool, signaling when growing asymmetries may under-mine policy feasibility.

  • Access to Document (DOI)

• "Productivity Dynamics in the Maldives: A First Outlook Based on the Maldivian Productivity Accounts, 1970–2023, with Comparisons to SAARC and Fiji"

  Koji Nomura

  (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific)   2025.10

  Research paper (other academic), Single Work

  　View Summary

  This report presents the first comprehensive productivity analysis for the Maldives based on the newly developed Maldivian Productivity Accounts, covering the period 1970–2023 and including cross-country comparisons with SAARC members and Fiji. The results show that sustained economic growth of 5–7% per year from 1970 to 2019 was supported by a nearly thirtyfold expansion of capital input and a twentyfold increase in labor input, including migrant workers. However, improvements in TFP have remained close to zero or even negative. The capital–output ratio reached 5.3 in 2023—the highest in the SAARC region—reflecting low investment efficiency and possible overaccumulation. Transitioning from quantity-driven to efficiency-based growth is essential for the Maldives to achieve sustainable productivity and long-term economic resilience.

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Papers, etc., Registered in KOARA 【 Display / hide 】

Papers, etc., Registered in KOARA 【 Display / hide 】

• Energy price surge and widening real price differentials in the post-pandemic era : a comparative analysis of seven major countries

  Nomura, Koji

  KEO discussion paper (Keio Economic Observatory Sangyo Kenkyujo)   ( 185 )  2025.03

• Indirect steel trade in the postwar Japanese economy

  Nomura, Koji

  KEO discussion paper (Keio Economic Observatory Sangyo Kenkyujo)   ( 184 )  2025.02

• Measuring public civil engineering output prices based on bidding data in Japan, 1989–2021

  Nomura, Koji

  KEO discussion paper (Keio Economic Observatory Sangyo Kenkyujo)   ( 173 )  2022.10

• Measurement of labor shares and quality-adjusted labor inputs in Vietnam, 1970–2018

  Nomura, Kōji

  KEO discussion paper (Keio Economic Observatory Sangyo Kenkyujo)   ( 156 )  2020.12

• Benchmark 2011 integrated estimates of the Japan-U.S. price level index for industry outputs

  Nomura, Koji

  KEO discussion paper (Keio Economic Observatory Sangyo Kenkyujo)   ( 144 )  2018.10

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Reviews, Commentaries, etc. 【 Display / hide 】

Reviews, Commentaries, etc. 【 Display / hide 】

• "When Economics Loses Measurement" (in Japanese)

  Koji Nomura

  Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun)   2026.05

  Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

• "AI Deployment and Productivity: Why Productivity Diffusion Takes Time"

  Koji Nomura and Naoki Tatsumi

  Productivity Research Notes (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University)   ( 2612 )  2026.05

  Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

  　View Summary

  Productivity Research Notes (PRN Series), No. 2612.
  Generative AI capabilities are advancing rapidly, yet measurable productivity gains may diffuse more slowly across economies. This note argues that the key bottleneck lies not in frontier AI access itself, but in the organizational and deployment capabilities required to integrate AI into enterprise production systems. As firms devote substantial resources to systems integration, workflow redesign, governance adaptation, and deployment-related activities, part of AI's economic gains may initially be absorbed by organizational adjustment costs rather than appearing as broad productivity improvements. Moreover, because many deployment-related activities are service-intensive, firm-specific, and difficult to capture in conventional input measures, measured TFP growth during the AI diffusion process may carry an upward bias that obscures the true scale of underlying organizational transformation.

  PRN2612

  • Access to Document (DOI)

• ”A Perspective Missing from Japan's Nuclear Policy” (in Japanese)

  Koji Nomura

  Energy Policy Report (Energy Forum Inc.)   ( 2175 )  2026.05

  Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

  　View Summary

  Since the Fukushima Daiichi accident, discussions on nuclear policy in Japan have emphasized the importance of “careful explanation” to society. This article argues that the central issue lies not in insufficient communication by frontline operators, but in the absence of a decision-making framework that evaluates safety levels through comparison with other risks and social costs. Referring to a recent survey experiment published in Energy Policy, the article shows that public support for nuclear power is shaped not only by perceptions of radiation risk, but also by comparisons with energy security, decarbonization, and international competitiveness. Drawing on Masao Maruyama’s idea of a “robust subjective spirit,” the article highlights the importance of continual comparative judgment rather than fixed and absolute values. It concludes that treating safety as unquestionable may ultimately weaken the economic and technological foundations necessary to sustain long-term safety itself.

• "Quality Adjustment and PPP: A Fundamental Caveat in Productivity Comparisons"

  Ho, Mun S., Koji Nomura, and Jon D. Samuels

  Productivity Research Notes (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University)   ( 2611 )  2026.05

  Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

  　View Summary

  Productivity Research Notes (PRN Series), No. 2611.
  Cross-country productivity comparisons are fundamentally shaped by how national statistical agencies treat quality change in price indices. When quality improvements are incompletely captured, measured inflation is overstated and real output growth understated—with differences accumulating over time. Neither constant PPPs, which extrapolate from a benchmark year using national deflators, nor current PPPs, which incorporate updated international price data, can fully resolve these inconsistencies. Interpreting productivity level comparisons therefore requires careful attention to cross-country differences in price measurement methods.

  PRN2611

  • Access to Document (DOI)

• "Importing Bits, Not Watts: AI Infrastructure and Japan’s Electricity Constraint"

  Koji Nomura

  Productivity Research Notes (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University)   ( 2610 )  2026.05

  Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

  　View Summary

  Productivity Research Notes (PRN Series), No. 2610.
  Artificial intelligence is increasingly discussed as a driver of future productivity growth, yet its expansion also depends on electricity supply and physical infrastructure. This note argues that AI computation can increasingly be traded internationally as digital services, while electricity supply remains geographically constrained. Using Japan as a case study, it examines how electricity costs, transmission limitations, and industrial linkages shape the domestic location of AI-related computation. The note further highlights the uncertainty surrounding future AI-related electricity demand, emphasizing both the evolving electricity productivity of computation and the uncertain long-run sustainability of rapidly expanding digital consumption patterns. These observations suggest that AI competitiveness may increasingly depend on stable, scalable, and economically sustainable electricity systems as much as on advances in computation itself.

  PRN2610

  • Access to Document (DOI)

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Presentations 【 Display / hide 】

Presentations 【 Display / hide 】

• "How Will Technological Implementation Transform Economic Structures?—Visualization Using BIP and Future Visions for BIP" (in Japanese)

  Koji Nomura

  [Domestic presentation]  "Reseach on Japanese Economy in 2040", 

  2026.03

  , 

  Oral presentation (general), SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute

• "Declining Energy Cost Competitiveness in Japan and Europe" (in Japanese)

  Koji Nomura

  [Domestic presentation]  RITE ALPS IV Economic Analysis Working Group, 

  2026.03

  , 

  Oral presentation (general), RITE

  　View Summary

  This report examines the international comparison of energy cost competitiveness, emphasizing the importance of evaluating energy prices using a real price level index based on value-added prices (Real PLI) rather than nominal price differences that depend on exchange rates. Using data for nine economies—Japan, China, Korea, India, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, and the United States—measured through the fourth quarter of 2025, the analysis confirms that since the post-pandemic period the real energy price gap faced by Japan, Korea, and European economies relative to the United States, China, and India has structurally widened and become increasingly persistent. Japan’s Real PLI reaches 2.08 times that of the United States, while Germany’s reaches 2.73 times.
  
  The study further estimates a threshold effect whereby production in energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) industries declines nonlinearly once the energy price gap exceeds a certain critical level. The recent improvement in measured energy productivity observed in advanced economies therefore reflects not only gains in technical efficiency but also significant structural change associated with the hollowing out of EITE industries. This dynamic implies the emergence of new risks for economic security in energy-dependent industrial economies.

• "How Does the Social Implementation of Technological Innovation Transform the Japanese Economy? —Visualizing Structural Change with the High-Resolution Economic Model BIP?" (in Japanese)

  Koji Nomura

  [Domestic presentation]  RITE ALPS IV , 

  2026.01

  , 

  Oral presentation (general), RITE

• "Economic Growth, Electricity Consumption, and CO2 Emissions Accompanying the Social Implementation of Technological Innovation: An Evaluation Using the High-Resolution Economic Model BIP" (in Japanese)

  Koji Nomura

  [Domestic presentation]  RITE ALPS IV Economic Analysis Working Group, 

  2025.12

  , 

  Oral presentation (general), RITE

• "Social Implementation of Technological Innovation in the 2040 Economy and Society: An Evaluation Using the High-Resolution Economic Model BIP" (in Japanese)

  Koji Nomura

  [Domestic presentation]  "Reseach on Japanese Economy in 2040", 

  2025.12

  , 

  Oral presentation (general), SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute

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Works 【 Display / hide 】

Works 【 Display / hide 】

• APO Productivity Database (APO-PDB) 2026

  Koji Nomura, Sho Inaba, and Shiori Nakayama

  Asian Productivity Organization and Keio Economic Observatory, 

  2025.10

  -

  2026.06

  , 

  Database science, Joint

  　View Details

  The APO Productivity Database (APO-PDB) is a macro-level productivity account covering mainly Asian economies, incorporating changes in labor composition and capital inputs including land, inventories, and natural resources. It traces economic growth across Asia from 1970 to the most recent year — spanning more than half a century — constructed based on internationally harmonized SNA concepts.
  
  The Asia Quality-adjusted Labor Input Database (AQALI) 2026 and the Asia Natural Resources Database (ANRD) 2026 will be utilized in the APO-PDB2026, scheduled for publication in September 2026. The measurement coverage spans the period from 1970 to 2024.
  
  The APO-PDB 2026 includes 28 Asian economies—Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Chinese Taipei, Fiji, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, the Maldives, Pakistan, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkey, Bhutan, Brunei, and Viet Nam—as well as the United States.

• Asia Quality-adjusted Labor Input Database (AQALI) 2026

  Koji Nomura, Sho Inaba, and Shiori Nakayama

  Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University, 

  2025.10

  -

  2026.06

  , 

  Database science, Joint

  　View Details

  The AQALI 2026 is utilized in the APO Productivity Databook 2026 (to be published in September 2026). The measurement covers from 1970 to 2024.
  
  It includes 28 Asian economies—Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Chinese Taipei, Fiji, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, the Maldives, Pakistan, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkey, Bhutan, Brunei, and Viet Nam—as well as the United States.

• Multilateral Energy Cost Monitoring (ECM_202604)

  Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

  Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University, 

  2026.05

  , 

  Database science, Joint

  　View Details

  The ECM provides a high-frequency indicator — Real Unit Energy Cost (RUEC) and Real Price Level Index for energy (Real PLI) — to measure and compare real energy cost differentials across nine countries: four in Asia (China, India, Japan, and Korea), and four in Europe (France, Germany, Italy, and the UK), and the U.S. The ECM also releases the EITE (Energy-Intensive Trade-Exposed) Output Index.

• Energy Cost Monitoring for Japan (ECM_JPN_202604)

  Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

  Nomura Lab at Keio Economic Observatory, 

  2026.05

  , 

  Database science, Joint

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  ECM monitors international disparities in real energy costs across nine countries — Japan, China, South Korea, India, the United States, France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom — publishing high-frequency estimates of the Real Unit Energy Cost (RUEC) and the Real Price Level Index (Real PLI). The Japan-specific component provides monthly estimates of real energy costs and identifies the effects of energy subsidies. In addition, production and import indices for energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) manufacturing industries affected by energy price surges and environmental policies are measured and published with international comparisons.

• Quarterly GDP Growth (JQGDP_2026Q1) First Estimate

  Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

  Nomura Lab at Keio Economic Observatory, 

  2026.04

  , 

  Database science, Joint

  　View Details

  JQGDP is a quarterly GDP estimate for Japan developed and published by the Nomura Lab at the Keio Economic Observatory (KEO), Keio University. Like its monthly counterpart JMGDP, it employs a production-side approach across 36 industries with double-deflation-based value-added estimation. A "first forecast" is released approximately two weeks before the Cabinet Office's (ESRI) first preliminary GDP estimate, and a "second forecast" approximately one week before the second preliminary, enabling earlier assessment of economic conditions than official statistics. Publication has continued since the first quarter of 2022.
  JQGDP_2026Q1 is the first forecast (released on April 30) and the second forecast (released on May 29) of the Q1 2026 GDP estimate.

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Awards 【 Display / hide 】

Awards 【 Display / hide 】

• The 48th Nikkei Award (Nikkei Keizai-Tosho-Bunka-Sho)

  Koji Nomura, 2005.11, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Measurement of Capital and Productivity

  Type of Award： Award from publisher, newspaper, foundation, etc.

• Keio Award

  Koji Nomura, 2005.11, Keio Univeristy

  Type of Award： Keio commendation etc.

Courses Taught 【 Display / hide 】

Courses Taught 【 Display / hide 】

• INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS

  2026

• INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS

  2026

• THEORY OF INDEX NUMBERS

  2026

• SEMINAR: SPECIAL STUDY OF ECONOMETRICS

  2026

• SPECIAL STUDY OF ECONOMETRICS

  2026

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Social Activities 【 Display / hide 】

Social Activities 【 Display / hide 】

• Non-Governmental Energy Basic Plan (7th Edition)

  Taishi Sugiyama and Koji Nomura (eds.), Yutaka Iikura, Yoshiaki Oka, Tomohiko Okano, Koko Kato, Masami Kojima, Tetsuo Sawada, Naoki Tatsumi, Hiroshi Tanaka, Naoki Toda, Haruhisa Nakazawa, Tsuruhiko Nambu, Koji Hirai, Satoshi Matsuda, Yoshihiro Muronaka, Hitoshi Yakushiin, Ryuzo Yamamoto, Masayuki Yamaguchi, and Tadashi Watanabe

  , 

  2026.03

  -

  2026.05

• Workshop in Maldives on EPiC and productivity-driven economic growth

  UNESCAP and Ministry of Finance and Planning Republic of Maldives,  (Champa Central Hotel, Male, Maldives)

  , 

  2026.03

  -

  2026.04

  　View Summary

  The workshop supports the formulation of the Maldives National Development Plan through a collaborative effort led by the Department of National Planning Maldives, with technical assistance from the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and funding from the China‑ESCAP Cooperation Programme (CECP).
  
  ESCAP’s support includes a long-term productivity analysis of the economy of the Maldives (1970–2023), examining trends in total factor productivity, labour productivity, and capital productivity to identify sources of growth, structural transformation, and opportunities for diversification. These findings inform the economic priorities of the draft plan, particularly the pillar on building a resilient, productive and inclusive economy.
  
  Overall, the workshop aims to refine the draft national development plan and strengthen its results and monitoring framework using the EPiC methodology, ensuring that policy priorities translate into measurable and inclusive development outcomes.
  
  

• 2025 ALPS IV Report (in Japanese)

  RITE

  , 

  2026.03

• 2025 Carbon Neutral Action Plan Third Party Evaluation Committee Evaluation Report (in Japanese)

  Keidanren

  , 

  2026.03

• "Report by the Study Group on the Economy and Society for 2040" (in Japanese)

  SBI FInancial and Economic Research Institute

  , 

  2026.02

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Media Coverage 【 Display / hide 】

Media Coverage 【 Display / hide 】

• "When Economics Loses Measurement" (in Japanese)

  Denki Shimbun, 2026.05

• 「AIは進化しているのに、なぜ生産性はすぐ上がらないのか」

  note, 2026.05

• 「非政府有志によるエネルギー基本計画（第7版）が公開されました」

  note, 2026.05

• ”A Perspective Missing from Japan's Nuclear Policy” (in Japanese)

  Energy Forum, EP Report, 2026.05

• "India’s Productivity Challenge"

  Economic & Political Weekly (EPW), 2026.04

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Academic Activities 【 Display / hide 】

Academic Activities 【 Display / hide 】

• Development and Dissemination of Productivity Research Notes (PRN), 2026–

  Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University, 

  2026.03

  　View Summary

  Productivity Research Notes (PRN) is a series of concise analytical briefs, each designed as a self-contained analysis typically presented in a two-page format, produced by the Keio Economic Observatory (KEO), Keio University, Tokyo, focusing on productivity and economic performance in Asia. It highlights key measurement issues, empirical findings, and policy-relevant insights, and serves as a platform to communicate selected results from the APO Productivity Databook/Database and related research activities at KEO, including APDB, AQALI, ANRD, ECM, and related analytical resources.

• Development of Augmented Productivity Database (APDB), 1970-2024

  Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University, 

  2025.10

  -

  2026.09

• Development of Augmented Productivity Database (APDB), 1970-2023

  Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University, 

  2024.10

  -

  2025.09

• UNESCAP Project- Development of Growth Accounting Framework for Bhutan

  Ministry of Finance and Keio Economic Observatory,  (Ministry of Finance, Royal Government of Bhutan, and KEO, Keio University) , 

  2024.09

  -

  2024.12

• Contibution to the special issue honoring professor Dale W. Jorgenson and his pioneering contributions to unraveling the impact of digital technology on economic growth

  Barbara M. Fraumeni and Khuong M. Vu,  (Telecommunications Policy) , 

  2023.12

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Committee Experiences 【 Display / hide 】

Committee Experiences 【 Display / hide 】

• 2026.04

  -

  2027.03

  Editorial Board Member, "Economic Analysis" Editorial Board, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan

• 2026.04

  -

  2027.03

  Visiting Senior Researcher, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)

• 2026.04

  -

  2027.03

  Advisor, Research Institute of Capital Formation, Development Bank of Japan

• 2026.02

  -

  2027.01

  Advisor, SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute

• 2025.12

  -

  2027.12

  Committee member, Keidanren Carbon Neutral Action Plan Third Party Evaluation Committee

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