NOMURA Koji

写真a

Affiliation

Research Centers and Institutes, Keio Economic Observatory （Mita）

Position

Professor

E-mail Address

E-mail address

Related Websites
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Career 【 Display / hide 】

  • 1996.04
    -
    2003.03

    Keio University,, Keio Economic Observatory,, Assistant Professor

  • 2003.04
    -
    2005.03

    Harvard University,, Kennedy School of Government,, CBG fellow

  • 2003.04
    -
    2017.03

    Keio University,, Keio Economic Observatory,, Associate Professor

  • 2005.07
    -
    2008.09

    Cabinet Office, Government of Japan,, ESRI (Economic Social Research Institute),, Visiting Fellow

  • 2006.11
    -
    2007.08

    OECD, STI (Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry),, Economist

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Academic Background 【 Display / hide 】

  • 1989.03

    Hakodate Chubu High School, Hokkaido

    Graduated

  • 1993.03

    Keio University, Faculty of Business and Commerce

    University, Graduated

  • 1995.03

    Keio University, Graduate School of Business and Commerce

    Graduate School, Completed, Master's course

  • 1998.03

    Keio University, Graduate School of Business and Commerce

    Graduate School, Withdrawal after completion of doctoral course requirements, Doctoral course

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Academic Degrees 【 Display / hide 】

  • M.A., Keio University, Coursework, 1995.03

  • Ph.D, Keio University, Dissertation, 2005

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Research Areas 【 Display / hide 】

  • Humanities & Social Sciences / Economic statistics

  • Humanities & Social Sciences / Economic policy

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Research Keywords 【 Display / hide 】

  • Economic Growth, Capital and Productivity

  • Energy and Environment

  • Labor Input and Human Capital

  • Japanese and Asian Economies

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Books 【 Display / hide 】

  • Energy Productivity and Economic Growth: Experiences of the Japanese Industries, 1955–2019

    Koji Nomura, Springer, 2023.01,  Page： 268

    　View Summary

    Energy costs in the economy amount to only a few percent of gross domestic product, but their importance to economic growth is much greater than their apparent number. Energy is used in almost all production and consumption activities, and energy price changes induce significant spillover effects throughout the economic system. More importantly, stable and affordable access to energy is a critical factor in determining the rate of capital accumulation in a domestic economy and, hence, labor productivity growth. The expansion of production per hour worked is achieved by using more and higher quality capital, which requires more energy to operate. This book aims to provide robust observational facts on energy productivity improvement (EPI) and to analyze the mechanisms of EPI achieved in Japan’s economic growth from 1955 to 2019. Linking the productivity account with energy statistics enables us to attempt not only to develop a better indicator of energy productivity but also to evaluate the EPI with other significant changes in the production process, such as capital productivity, labor productivity, and even the overall efficiency measured in terms of total factor productivity. This book is a valuable resource for researchers and policymakers seeking to understand the role of energy throughout the economy and for economic planners seeking to ensure the efficient use of energy now and into the future.

  • Energy Productivity in Japan's Economic Growth (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura, Keio University Press, 2021.06,  Page： 288

    　View Summary

    拙速なエネルギー環境政策の強化が更なる経済停滞を招く危険を説いた警世の書。日本のエネルギー効率が「環境規制」によってではなく「経済成長」下で改善されてきた事実を示し、２０５０年「脱炭素社会」を見据え、その移行期における国際的に調和したエネルギー環境政策を提言する。

    目次
    第１章　経済成長とエネルギー
    第２章　エネルギー生産性改善の源泉
    第３章　エネルギー価格高騰に対する耐性
    第４章　エネルギー生産性と全体効率
    第５章　間接的な電力輸入
    第６章　日本のエネルギー転換に向けて

  • Measurement of Capital and Productivity in Japan (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura, Keio University Press, 2004.11,  Page： 660

    　View Summary

    わが国の資本形成から資本ストックの蓄積、資本サービスへの変換、資本サービス投入による経済成長への寄与まで、生産と資本、資本と生産を結ぶ整合ある測定を行い、日米比較とともに高度成長期から２０００年までの経済成長を描いた本格的実証分析。

    目次
    第１章　資本の測定
    第２章　資本ストック
    第３章　資本サービス価格
    第４章　資本サービスと経済成長
    補章
    終章　結びとして

  • "A High-pressure Economy with a Sustainably Weak Yen is Desirable for the Japanese Economy" in Y. Harada and Y. Iida (eds.) What is High Pressure Economy (in Japanese))

    Koji Nomura and Koichi Hamada, Kinzai, 2023.11,  Page： 23

    Contact page： 43–65

    　View Summary

    本稿は、戦後日本の経済成長の経験を振り返りながら、1980年後半以降の為替レートが多くの年で「過度の円高」であり、そして過度の円高が導く国内経済におけるコスト削減がどのように実現されたのかを解明する。見いだされることは、1980年代半ばまで「高圧経済」によって運営されていた日本経済が「低圧経済」へと移行してしまったことであり、それによる賃金抑制と生産性停滞こそが長期にわたり日本経済を苦しめてきたデフレ圧力の源泉となってきた。日本経済の復活に向け、高圧経済の実現への転換をいかにすべきかを論じる。

  • APO Productivity Databook 2023

    Koji Nomura and Fukunari Kimura, Asian Productivity Organization, Keio University Press, 2023.10,  Page： 205

    　View Summary

    The sixteenth edition of the APO Productivity Databook aims to provide a useful reference on the quality of economic growth and productivity, comparable across countries at different development stages in Asia. Productivity gains, which enable an economy to produce more for the same amount of inputs, or to consume less to produce the same amount of outputs, are the only route to sustainable economic growth in the long run. Monitoring and improving national productivity capability are important public policy targets. This edition covers more than half a century’s history of Asian economic development, from 1970 to 2021, with our projections of economic growth and labor productivity improvements out to 2030.
    Baseline economic growth and productivity indicators are calculated for 31 Asian economies, representing the 21 Asian Productivity Organization member economies (APO21) and the ten non-member economies in Asia . The APO21 consists of Bangladesh, Cambodia, the Republic of China (ROC), Fiji, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, the Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran), Japan, the Republic of Korea (Korea), the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Malaysia, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkiye, and Vietnam. The ten non-member economies in Asia are the Kingdom of Bhutan (Bhutan), Brunei Darussalam (Brunei), the People’s Republic of China (China), Myanmar, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), consisting of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In addition, Australia, the European Union (EU), France, Italy, Germany, New Zealand, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US) are included as reference economies.

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Papers 【 Display / hide 】

  • "Estimating Flexible Functional Forms using Macroeconomic Data"

    W. Erwin Diewert, Koji Nomura, and Chihiro Shimizu

    TCER Working Paper Series （Tokyo Center for Economic Research)   （ E-206 ）  2024.04

    Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

    　View Summary

    The paper estimates a flexible functional form for a joint cost function using US aggregate data for the years 1970-2022. There are four outputs (consumption, government, investment and exports) and six inputs (imports, labour, machinery and equipment services, structure services, other capital services and land services). Curvature conditions on the joint cost function are imposed without destroying the flexibility of the functional form. Various elasticities of supply and demand are estimated along with technical progress bias terms for each input. When using aggregate time series data based on the System of National Accounts, the paper shows that it is probably better to estimate a joint cost function rather than a gross output function or a GDP function. The paper also shows that assuming that an aggregate production function has constant elasticities of substitution is not appropriate for the US. Finally, the importance of including land as an aggregate input is stressed.

  • "Post-Pandemic Surges of Real Unit Energy Costs in Eight Industrialized Countries"

    Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

    RCGW Discussion Paper （Research Center on Global Warming, Develpment Bank of Japan)   （ 70 ）  2024.03

    Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work, Lead author, Last author, Corresponding author

    　View Summary

    This paper develops a high-frequency indicator to assess real price and cost differentials for energy use across eight industrialized countries: China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and the U.S. The study assesses the overall energy cost burden using the real price level index (PLI) and the real unit energy cost (RUEC). The real PLI, unaffected by exchange rate fluctuations, provides a stable measure of real energy price differentials, while the RUEC indicates the challenges facing the energy transition. An analysis of RUEC trends from the first quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2023 highlights a substantial post-pandemic surge, particularly evident in Germany and Italy, where levels spiked by about 80% compared to pre-pandemic periods. This surge in Germany has coincided with a 20% decline in output within energy-intensive manufacturing by the end of 2023. Asian countries, on the other hand, managed to curb the post-pandemic RUEC surge to less than half of this level through energy subsidies and government interventions. Nonetheless, the higher RUEC levels in China and South Korea underscore the formidable challenges they encounter in propelling their energy transition initiatives forward. In Japan, about half of the limitations on the RUEC surge are attributed to reduced energy consumption resulting from the hollowing out of its industrial sector. Without a fundamental reevaluation of energy policies to ensure economic growth, the current path of the energy transition remains precarious.

  • "Improving the SNA: Alternative Measures of Output, Input, Income, and Productivity"

    W. Erwin Diewert, Koji Nomura, and Chihiro Shimizu

    Review of Income and Wealth   2024.01

    Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted,  ISSN  00346586

    　View Summary

    The current System of National Accounts (SNA) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) concept does not measure the income generated by the production sector since it includes depreciation and excludes capital gains and losses on assets used in the production sector. The paper suggests an accounting framework that measures the income generated by the production sector of an economy and implements this measure using the Augmented Productivity Database (APDB) developed by Asian Productivity Organization and Keio University for China over the years 1970–2020. Real gross and real net income generated by the Chinese production sector are decomposed into explanatory factors including TFP growth using the framework suggested by Jorgenson and Diewert and Morrison. TFP growth is further decomposed into technical progress and inefficiency components using the nonparametric approach developed by Diewert and Fox. The APDB has estimates for the price and quantity of agricultural, industrial, commercial, and residential land used in China. The paper argues that changes in land use should be treated in the same manner as inventory change and added to the alternative output measures. It turns out that Jorgensonian user costs for land are frequently negative. The problems associated with negative user costs are discussed in the paper.

  • "A High-pressure Economy with a Sustainably Weak Yen is Desirable for the Japanese Economy" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura and Koichi Hamada

    Y. Harada and Y. Iida (eds.) What is High Pressure Economy （Kinzai)     43 - 65 2023.11

    Part of collection (book), Joint Work, Lead author, Corresponding author

    　View Summary

    本稿は、戦後日本の経済成長の経験を振り返りながら、1980年後半以降の為替レートが多くの年で「過度の円高」であり、そして過度の円高が導く国内経済におけるコスト削減がどのように実現されたのかを解明する。見いだされることは、1980年代半ばまで「高圧経済」によって運営されていた日本経済が「低圧経済」へと移行してしまったことであり、それによる賃金抑制と生産性停滞こそが長期にわたり日本経済を苦しめてきたデフレ圧力の源泉となってきた。日本経済の復活に向け、高圧経済の実現への転換をいかにすべきかを論じる。

  • "The Growing Impact of ICT Productivity via the Cost of Capital: Evidence from the U.S. and Japan"

    Mun S. Ho, Koji Nomura, and Jon D. Samuels

    Telecommunications Policy （Elsevier)  47 （ 9 ）  2023.10

    Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted,  ISSN  03085961

    　View Summary

    We identify and measure two impacts of industry-level total factor productivity (TFP) growth on aggregate price change in the U.S. and Japan. The first is a standard effect from the definition of aggregate GDP. TFP change lowers aggregate prices ceteris paribus. The second is that a change in TFP in the production of investment goods lowers the cost of capital via lower investment prices. We call this the cost-of-capital effect and formulate an expanded growth accounting framework to capture both effects. We apply it to a harmonized dataset for the two countries and find that the standard effect has fallen since the peak around 2000 due to lower TFP growth and a diminished share of GDP. However, the cost-of-capital effect has risen in importance and offsets part of this decline in the standard effect.

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Papers, etc., Registered in KOARA 【 Display / hide 】

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Reviews, Commentaries, etc. 【 Display / hide 】

  • Improving Energy Productivity”, Approaches to the Realities (Part I) (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    PwC Dialogue Column  2024.08

    Lecture material (seminar, tutorial, course, lecture, etc.), Single Work

    　View Summary

    具体的な数値を伴ったデータが“エビデンス”として示されると、示された側は、それを疑うことなしに受け入れがちです。しかし、その内容や、一緒に伝えられた解釈は本当に“正しい”ものなのでしょうか。ゲストにお招きした慶應義塾大学産業研究所所長の野村浩二教授は、「“エビデンス”を健全に疑う」姿勢が大切だと指摘します。専門分野の1つである「エネルギー生産性の改善をどう捉えるか」というテーマの対談を通じて、その作法の一端を披露していただきました。聞き手はPwCコンサルティングの片岡剛士チーフエコノミスト、モデレーターはPwCコンサルティングのシニアエコノミスト 伊藤篤が務めました。

  • Improving Energy Productivity”, Approaches to the Realities (Part II) (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    PwC Dialogue Column  2024.08

    Lecture material (seminar, tutorial, course, lecture, etc.), Single Work

    　View Summary

    「エネルギー生産性の改善をどう捉えるか」をテーマに、慶應義塾大学産業研究所所長の野村浩二教授をゲストに迎えた対談の後編です。前編で野村教授は、規制などを通じた過度な省エネを推進すると、国内の産業空洞化を招く可能性に言及し、それが既に起こり始めていると指摘しました。後半では、鉄鋼業で実際に起きている現象をベースに、経済成長とエネルギー改善の在り方について、より視野を広げて考えます。また、政府の統計について深い知見を有する野村教授に、政策立案の潮流となっているEBPM（エビデンス・ベースト・ポリシー・メイキング＝証拠に基づく政策立案）の導入に伴い、統計作成の現場で起きている変化についても伺いました。

  • " 'Kodama' and 'Nozomi' " (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun)   2024.08

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

  • "Japanese-German Decline in Energy-Intensive Industries and Chinese Expansion" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    (International Environment and Economy Institute)   2024.07

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

  • ”China's "New Three" Overproduction: Will Big Government Industrial Policy Collapse?” (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    Energy Policy Report (Energy Forum Inc.)   2024.07

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

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Presentations 【 Display / hide 】

  • "Recent Trends in Steel Production and Accelerating Carbon Leakage"

    Koji Nomura

    Working Group on Steel Carbon Neutrality and Economic Growth Assessment (Tekko Kaikan) , 

    2024.09
    , 

    Oral presentation (general), The Iron and Steel Institute of Japan

  • "Is Hasty Energy Transition Distorting Economic Growth?" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    RITE ALPS IV , 

    2024.09
    , 

    Oral presentation (general), RITE

  • "Energy Cost Burden and Energy-Intensive Industries in Major Countries" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    7th GX Expert Working Group, GX Implementation Council, 

    2024.08
    , 

    Oral presentation (invited, special), Cabinet Secretariat

  • "High and Stable Energy Costs and Decline in EITE Manufacturing Production" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    RITE ALPS IV Economic Analysis Working Group, 

    2024.07
    , 

    Oral presentation (general), RITE

  • "GX (Green Transformation) and the Japanese Economy of 2040" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    "Reseach on Japanese Economy in 2040", 

    2024.06
    , 

    Oral presentation (general), SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute

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Works 【 Display / hide 】

  • Energy Cost Monitoring for Japan (ECM_JPN_202408a)

    Koji Nomura, Sho Inaba, Mansaku Yoshida, and Kaoru Takano

    Nomura Lab at Keio Economic Observatory, 

    2024.09
    , 

    Database science, Joint

    　View Details

    ECM_JPN_202408aは、EITE推計値の7月値までの更新と、四半期RUEC指標の国際比較の日本語版（第8節全体）の公表を開始。

  • Energy Cost Monitoring for Japan (ECM_JPN_202408)

    Koji Nomura, Sho Inaba, Mansaku Yoshida, and Kaoru Takano

    Nomura Lab at Keio Economic Observatory, 

    2024.08
    , 

    Database science, Joint

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    ECM_JPN_202408は、ECM推計値の7月値までの更新と、予測値の2025年6月までの公表を開始。なお、前回推計値にあった2024年4月–5月の電力価格指数におけるミス訂正と、U.S. EIA Short-term Energy Outlookでの化石燃料価格予測値の改訂により、ECM推計値は下方改訂されている。

  • Multilateral Energy Cost Monitoring (ECM_202408)

    Koji Nomura, Sho Inaba, Mansaku Yoshida, and Kaoru Takano

    Nomura Lab at Keio Economic Observatory, 

    2024.08
    , 

    Database science, Joint

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    The PLI (price level index) is estimated through May 2024, RUEC (real unit energy cost) through Q1 2024 (forecast is through Q4 2024), and the EITE (energy-intensive trade-exposed) output index through June 2024.

    PLI/RUEC covers seven countries (Japan, China, South Korea, the U.S., the UK, Germany, and France) and EITE covers four countries (Japan, China, the U.S., and Germany).

  • Monthly GDP Growth (JMGDP_202408)

    Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

    Nomura Lab at Keio Economic Observatory, 

    2024.08
    , 

    Database science, Joint

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    Update the estimates until July 2024.

  • Energy Cost Monitoring for Japan (ECM_JPN_202407a)

    Koji Nomura, Sho Inaba, and Kaoru Takano

    Nomura Lab at Keio Economic Observatory, 

    2024.08
    , 

    Database science, Joint

    　View Details

    ECM_JPN_202407a publishes updated EITE production indices up to June values, as well as new EITE import index and EITE import-output ratio index for Japan and Germany.

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Awards 【 Display / hide 】

  • The 48th Nikkei Award (Nikkei Keizai-Tosho-Bunka-Sho)

    Koji Nomura, 2005.11, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Measurement of Capital and Productivity

    Type of Award： Award from publisher, newspaper, foundation, etc.

  • Keio Award

    Koji Nomura, 2005.11, Keio Univeristy

    Type of Award： Keio commendation etc.

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Courses Taught 【 Display / hide 】

  • THEORY OF INDEX NUMBERS

    2024

  • SEMINAR: ECONOMETRICS

    2024

  • SEMINAR (QD)

    2024

  • SEMINAR (QC)

    2024

  • SEMINAR (QB)(PAST YEARS)

    2024

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Social Activities 【 Display / hide 】

  • Workshop on Productivity Account for Bhutan

    Ministry of Finance, Royal Government of Bhutan,  （Thimphu)

    , 
    2024.10

  • "Recent Trends in Real Energy Costs and EITE Outputs in Major Industrialized Countries"

    Cabinet Secretariat, Government of Japan,  7th GX Expert Working Group, GX Executive Committee, 

    , 
    2024.08

  • Bhutanese Industry-Level Productivity Account: Toward In-house Capacity Development and Publication

    Ministry of Finance, Royal Government of Bhutan,  （online)

    , 
    2024.07

  • "Seventh Energy Master Plan by Non-governmental Volunteers" (4th Edition)

    Taishi Sugiyama, Koji Nomura, Yoshioaki Oka, Tomohiko Okano, Koko Kato, Naoki Toda, Haruhisa Nakazawa, Tsuruhiko Nambu, Koji Hirai, Satoshi Matsuda, Ryuzo Yamamoto, Masami Kojima, Tetsuo Sawada, Hiroshi Tanaka, Yoshihiro Muronaka, Masayuki Yamaguchi, and Tadashi Watanabe

    , 
    2024.06

    　View Summary

    「非政府の有志による第7次エネルギー基本計画」では、安全保障と経済成長を重視したエネルギー政策として、「エネルギードミナンス（優勢）」を提唱する。エネルギードミナンスとは、米国共和党で用いられてきた概念である。それはすなわち、豊富で、安定し、安価なエネルギーを供給することを指す。それによって、日本が経済発展をし、防衛力を高め、自由、民主といった普遍的価値を守り発展させることが可能になる。エネルギードミナンスを確立するために11項目にわたる提言をする。
    （全177ページ・編著者17名）

  • "Seventh Energy Master Plan by Non-governmental Volunteers" (3rd Edition)

    Taishi Sugiyama, Koji Nomura, Yoshioaki Oka, Tomohiko Okano, Koko Kato, Naoki Toda, Haruhisa Nakazawa, Tsuruhiko Nambu, Koji Hirai, Ryuzo Yamamoto, Masami Kojima, Tetsuo Sawada, Hiroshi Tanaka, Yoshihiro Muronaka, Masayuki Yamaguchi, and Tadashi Watanabe

    , 
    2024.04

    　View Summary

    「非政府の有志による第7次エネルギー基本計画」では、安全保障と経済成長を重視したエネルギー政策として、「エネルギードミナンス（優勢）」を提唱する。エネルギードミナンスとは、米国共和党で用いられてきた概念である。それはすなわち、豊富で、安定し、安価なエネルギーを供給することを指す。それによって、日本が経済発展をし、防衛力を高め、自由、民主といった普遍的価値を守り発展させることが可能になる。エネルギードミナンスを確立するために11項目にわたる提言をする。
    （全170ページ・編著者16名）

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Media Coverage 【 Display / hide 】

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Academic Activities 【 Display / hide 】

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Committee Experiences 【 Display / hide 】

  • 2024.07
    -
    2025.03

    Committee member, Committee on Energy System Research, APIR (Asia Pacific Institute of Reseach)

  • 2024.07
    -
    2026.03

    Chief Examiner, WG on Steel Carbon Neutrality and Economic Growth Assessment, Japan Iron and Steel Institute

  • 2024.06
    -
    2025.03

    Committee Member, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Technical Committee for International Strategy against Global Warming

  • 2024.06
    -
    2025.03

    Chief, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Economic Analysis Working Group

  • 2024.06
    -
    2025.03

    Committee Member, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Working Group for Promoting Innovation and Investment

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