NOMURA Koji

写真a

Affiliation

Research Centers and Institutes, Keio Economic Observatory (Mita)

Position

Professor

E-mail Address

E-mail address

Related Websites
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Career 【 Display / hide 】

  • 1996.04
    -
    2003.03

    Keio University,, Keio Economic Observatory,, Assistant Professor

  • 2003.04
    -
    2005.03

    Harvard University,, Kennedy School of Government,, CBG fellow

  • 2003.04
    -
    2017.03

    Keio University,, Keio Economic Observatory,, Associate Professor

  • 2005.07
    -
    2008.09

    Cabinet Office, Government of Japan,, ESRI (Economic Social Research Institute),, Visiting Fellow

  • 2006.11
    -
    2007.08

    OECD, STI (Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry),, Economist

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Academic Background 【 Display / hide 】

  • 1989.03

    Hakodate Chubu High School, Hokkaido

    Graduated

  • 1993.03

    Keio University, Faculty of Business and Commerce

    University, Graduated

  • 1995.03

    Keio University, Graduate School of Business and Commerce

    Graduate School, Completed, Master's course

  • 1998.03

    Keio University, Graduate School of Business and Commerce

    Graduate School, Withdrawal after completion of doctoral course requirements, Doctoral course

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Academic Degrees 【 Display / hide 】

  • M.A., Keio University, Coursework, 1995.03

  • Ph.D, Keio University, Dissertation, 2005

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Research Areas 【 Display / hide 】

  • Humanities & Social Sciences / Economic statistics

  • Humanities & Social Sciences / Economic policy

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Research Keywords 【 Display / hide 】

  • Economic Growth, Capital and Productivity

  • Energy and Environment

  • Labor Input and Human Capital

  • Japanese and Asian Economies

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Books 【 Display / hide 】

  • APO Productivity Databook 2024

    Koji Nomura and Mun S. Ho, Asian Productivity Organization, Keio University Press, 2024.09,  Page： 201

    　View Summary

    This seventeenth edition of the APO Productivity Databook describes the quality of economic growth and productivity by providing comparable accounts across countries with different accounting systems. This is intended to serve as a useful resource for policymakers and researchers. Productivity gains, which enable an economy to produce more with the same inputs or to achieve the same output with fewer inputs, are crucial for ensuring sustainable economic growth in the long run. Improving national productivity performance is a key public policy objective, which requires reliable monitoring of past performance. This edition covers more than half a century of Asian economic development, from 1970 to 2022. Additionally, this edition includes projections for economic growth and labor productivity improvements up to 2035. Baseline economic growth and productivity indicators are calculated for 31 Asian economies, representing the 21 Asian Productivity Organization member economies (APO21) and the ten non-member economies in Asia.1 The APO21 consists of Bangladesh, Cambodia, the Republic of China (ROC), Fiji, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, the Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran), Japan, the Republic of Korea (Korea), the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Malaysia, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkiye, and Vietnam. The ten non-member economies in Asia are the Kingdom of Bhutan (Bhutan), Brunei Darussalam (Brunei), the People’s Republic of China (China), Myanmar, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), consisting of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In addition, Australia, the European Union (EU), France, Italy, Germany, New Zealand, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US) are included as reference economies.

  • Energy Productivity and Economic Growth: Experiences of the Japanese Industries, 1955–2019

    Koji Nomura, Springer, 2023.01,  Page： 268

    　View Summary

    Energy costs in the economy amount to only a few percent of gross domestic product, but their importance to economic growth is much greater than their apparent number. Energy is used in almost all production and consumption activities, and energy price changes induce significant spillover effects throughout the economic system. More importantly, stable and affordable access to energy is a critical factor in determining the rate of capital accumulation in a domestic economy and, hence, labor productivity growth. The expansion of production per hour worked is achieved by using more and higher quality capital, which requires more energy to operate. This book aims to provide robust observational facts on energy productivity improvement (EPI) and to analyze the mechanisms of EPI achieved in Japan’s economic growth from 1955 to 2019. Linking the productivity account with energy statistics enables us to attempt not only to develop a better indicator of energy productivity but also to evaluate the EPI with other significant changes in the production process, such as capital productivity, labor productivity, and even the overall efficiency measured in terms of total factor productivity. This book is a valuable resource for researchers and policymakers seeking to understand the role of energy throughout the economy and for economic planners seeking to ensure the efficient use of energy now and into the future.

  • Energy Productivity in Japan's Economic Growth: Exploring Possibilities for Balancing Economy and Environment (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura, Keio University Press, 2021.06,  Page： 288

    　View Summary

    拙速なエネルギー環境政策の強化が更なる経済停滞を招く危険を説いた警世の書。日本のエネルギー効率が「環境規制」によってではなく「経済成長」下で改善されてきた事実を示し、２０５０年「脱炭素社会」を見据え、その移行期における国際的に調和したエネルギー環境政策を提言する。

    目次
    第１章　経済成長とエネルギー
    第２章　エネルギー生産性改善の源泉
    第３章　エネルギー価格高騰に対する耐性
    第４章　エネルギー生産性と全体効率
    第５章　間接的な電力輸入
    第６章　日本のエネルギー転換に向けて

  • Measurement of Capital and Productivity in Japan (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura, Keio University Press, 2004.11,  Page： 660

    　View Summary

    わが国の資本形成から資本ストックの蓄積、資本サービスへの変換、資本サービス投入による経済成長への寄与まで、生産と資本、資本と生産を結ぶ整合ある測定を行い、日米比較とともに高度成長期から２０００年までの経済成長を描いた本格的実証分析。

    目次
    第１章　資本の測定
    第２章　資本ストック
    第３章　資本サービス価格
    第４章　資本サービスと経済成長
    補章
    終章　結びとして

  • "A High-pressure Economy with a Sustainably Weak Yen is Desirable for the Japanese Economy" in Y. Harada and Y. Iida (eds.) What is High Pressure Economy (in Japanese))

    Koji Nomura and Koichi Hamada, Kinzai, 2023.11,  Page： 23

    Contact page： 43–65

    　View Summary

    本稿は、戦後日本の経済成長の経験を振り返りながら、1980年後半以降の為替レートが多くの年で「過度の円高」であり、そして過度の円高が導く国内経済におけるコスト削減がどのように実現されたのかを解明する。見いだされることは、1980年代半ばまで「高圧経済」によって運営されていた日本経済が「低圧経済」へと移行してしまったことであり、それによる賃金抑制と生産性停滞こそが長期にわたり日本経済を苦しめてきたデフレ圧力の源泉となってきた。日本経済の復活に向け、高圧経済の実現への転換をいかにすべきかを論じる。

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Papers 【 Display / hide 】

  • "Development of Industry-Level Productivity Account in Bhutan, 1990–2022"

    Koji Nomura

    (United Nations Development Programme)   2024.09

    Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.), Single Work

    　View Summary

    This study constructs an industry-level productivity account for Bhutan's economy from 1990 to 2022, focusing on the impacts of hydropower development on economic growth and resource allocation efficiency. The analysis reveals that while hydropower has been the primary driver of Bhutan's economic growth, its contribution declined significantly post-democratization. Despite maintaining the region's highest capital investment, the economy shows a striking dichotomy between high labor productivity and low capital productivity, indicating fundamental limitations in Bhutan's hydropower-led development strategy.

  • "Estimating Flexible Functional Forms using Macroeconomic Data"

    W. Erwin Diewert, Koji Nomura, and Chihiro Shimizu

    TCER Working Paper Series (Tokyo Center for Economic Research)   ( E-206 )  2024.04

    Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

    　View Summary

    The paper estimates a flexible functional form for a joint cost function using US aggregate data for the years 1970-2022. There are four outputs (consumption, government, investment and exports) and six inputs (imports, labour, machinery and equipment services, structure services, other capital services and land services). Curvature conditions on the joint cost function are imposed without destroying the flexibility of the functional form. Various elasticities of supply and demand are estimated along with technical progress bias terms for each input. When using aggregate time series data based on the System of National Accounts, the paper shows that it is probably better to estimate a joint cost function rather than a gross output function or a GDP function. The paper also shows that assuming that an aggregate production function has constant elasticities of substitution is not appropriate for the US. Finally, the importance of including land as an aggregate input is stressed.

  • "Post-Pandemic Surges of Real Unit Energy Costs in Eight Industrialized Countries"

    Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

    RCGW Discussion Paper (Research Center on Global Warming, Develpment Bank of Japan)   ( 70 )  2024.03

    Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work, Lead author, Last author, Corresponding author

    　View Summary

    This paper develops a high-frequency indicator to assess real price and cost differentials for energy use across eight industrialized countries: China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and the U.S. The study assesses the overall energy cost burden using the real price level index (PLI) and the real unit energy cost (RUEC). The real PLI, unaffected by exchange rate fluctuations, provides a stable measure of real energy price differentials, while the RUEC indicates the challenges facing the energy transition. An analysis of RUEC trends from the first quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2023 highlights a substantial post-pandemic surge, particularly evident in Germany and Italy, where levels spiked by about 80% compared to pre-pandemic periods. This surge in Germany has coincided with a 20% decline in output within energy-intensive manufacturing by the end of 2023. Asian countries, on the other hand, managed to curb the post-pandemic RUEC surge to less than half of this level through energy subsidies and government interventions. Nonetheless, the higher RUEC levels in China and South Korea underscore the formidable challenges they encounter in propelling their energy transition initiatives forward. In Japan, about half of the limitations on the RUEC surge are attributed to reduced energy consumption resulting from the hollowing out of its industrial sector. Without a fundamental reevaluation of energy policies to ensure economic growth, the current path of the energy transition remains precarious.

  • "Improving the SNA: Alternative Measures of Output, Input, Income, and Productivity"

    W. Erwin Diewert, Koji Nomura, and Chihiro Shimizu

    Review of Income and Wealth   2024.01

    Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted,  ISSN  00346586

    　View Summary

    The current System of National Accounts (SNA) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) concept does not measure the income generated by the production sector since it includes depreciation and excludes capital gains and losses on assets used in the production sector. The paper suggests an accounting framework that measures the income generated by the production sector of an economy and implements this measure using the Augmented Productivity Database (APDB) developed by Asian Productivity Organization and Keio University for China over the years 1970–2020. Real gross and real net income generated by the Chinese production sector are decomposed into explanatory factors including TFP growth using the framework suggested by Jorgenson and Diewert and Morrison. TFP growth is further decomposed into technical progress and inefficiency components using the nonparametric approach developed by Diewert and Fox. The APDB has estimates for the price and quantity of agricultural, industrial, commercial, and residential land used in China. The paper argues that changes in land use should be treated in the same manner as inventory change and added to the alternative output measures. It turns out that Jorgensonian user costs for land are frequently negative. The problems associated with negative user costs are discussed in the paper.

  • "A High-pressure Economy with a Sustainably Weak Yen is Desirable for the Japanese Economy" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura and Koichi Hamada

    Y. Harada and Y. Iida (eds.) What is High Pressure Economy (Kinzai)     43 - 65 2023.11

    Part of collection (book), Joint Work, Lead author, Corresponding author

    　View Summary

    本稿は、戦後日本の経済成長の経験を振り返りながら、1980年後半以降の為替レートが多くの年で「過度の円高」であり、そして過度の円高が導く国内経済におけるコスト削減がどのように実現されたのかを解明する。見いだされることは、1980年代半ばまで「高圧経済」によって運営されていた日本経済が「低圧経済」へと移行してしまったことであり、それによる賃金抑制と生産性停滞こそが長期にわたり日本経済を苦しめてきたデフレ圧力の源泉となってきた。日本経済の復活に向け、高圧経済の実現への転換をいかにすべきかを論じる。

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Papers, etc., Registered in KOARA 【 Display / hide 】

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Reviews, Commentaries, etc. 【 Display / hide 】

  • "The Light and Shadow of Empiricism" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun)   2024.11

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

  • ”Japan and Germany's “Subsidy-Drenched” Policies - The Japanese Media's Obedience to Government-Private Sector Policy Coordination” (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    Energy Policy Report (Energy Forum Inc.)   2024.10

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

  • "Coal-fueled Stove" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun)   2024.10

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

  • Improving Energy Productivity”, Approaches to the Realities (Part I) (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    PwC Dialogue Column  2024.08

    Lecture material (seminar, tutorial, course, lecture, etc.), Single Work

    　View Summary

    具体的な数値を伴ったデータが“エビデンス”として示されると、示された側は、それを疑うことなしに受け入れがちです。しかし、その内容や、一緒に伝えられた解釈は本当に“正しい”ものなのでしょうか。ゲストにお招きした慶應義塾大学産業研究所所長の野村浩二教授は、「“エビデンス”を健全に疑う」姿勢が大切だと指摘します。専門分野の1つである「エネルギー生産性の改善をどう捉えるか」というテーマの対談を通じて、その作法の一端を披露していただきました。聞き手はPwCコンサルティングの片岡剛士チーフエコノミスト、モデレーターはPwCコンサルティングのシニアエコノミスト 伊藤篤が務めました。

  • Improving Energy Productivity”, Approaches to the Realities (Part II) (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    PwC Dialogue Column  2024.08

    Lecture material (seminar, tutorial, course, lecture, etc.), Single Work

    　View Summary

    「エネルギー生産性の改善をどう捉えるか」をテーマに、慶應義塾大学産業研究所所長の野村浩二教授をゲストに迎えた対談の後編です。前編で野村教授は、規制などを通じた過度な省エネを推進すると、国内の産業空洞化を招く可能性に言及し、それが既に起こり始めていると指摘しました。後半では、鉄鋼業で実際に起きている現象をベースに、経済成長とエネルギー改善の在り方について、より視野を広げて考えます。また、政府の統計について深い知見を有する野村教授に、政策立案の潮流となっているEBPM（エビデンス・ベースト・ポリシー・メイキング＝証拠に基づく政策立案）の導入に伴い、統計作成の現場で起きている変化についても伺いました。

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Presentations 【 Display / hide 】

  • Overview of Data Issues and Challenges for Developing Bhutan's Productivity Account

    Koji Nomura

    Workshop on Productivity Account for Bhutan (Thimphu, Bhutan) , 

    2024.10
    , 

    Public lecture, seminar, tutorial, course, or other speech, Ministry of Finance, Royal Government of Bhutan

  • Key Findings and Concepts of Bhutan's Productivity Account

    Koji Nomura

    Workshop on Productivity Account for Bhutan (Thimphu, Bhutan) , 

    2024.10
    , 

    Public lecture, seminar, tutorial, course, or other speech, Ministry of Finance, Royal Government of Bhutan

  • "Recent Trends in Steel Production and Accelerating Carbon Leakage"

    Koji Nomura

    Working Group on Steel Carbon Neutrality and Economic Growth Assessment (Tekko Kaikan) , 

    2024.09
    , 

    Oral presentation (general), The Iron and Steel Institute of Japan

  • "Is Hasty Energy Transition Distorting Economic Growth?" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    RITE ALPS IV , 

    2024.09
    , 

    Oral presentation (general), RITE

  • "Energy Cost Burden and Energy-Intensive Industries in Major Countries" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    7th GX Expert Working Group, GX Implementation Council, 

    2024.08
    , 

    Oral presentation (invited, special), Cabinet Secretariat

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Works 【 Display / hide 】

  • Development of APO Productivity Database 2025

    Koji Nomura, Sho Inaba, and Shiori Nakayama

    Asian Productivity Organization and Keio Economic Observatory, 

    2024.11
    -
    2025.06
    , 

    Database science, Joint

    　View Details

    APO Productivity Databook 2025（2025年9月出版）において利用。測定期間は1970–2023年。

    生産性統計構築の対象国は、アジア25カ国（バングラデシュ、カンボジア、中華人民共和国、中華民国、フィジー、香港、インド、インドネシア、イラン・イスラム共和国、日本、大韓民国、ラオス人民民主共和国、マレーシア、モンゴル、ミャンマーネパール、パキスタン、フィリピン、シンガポール、スリランカ、タイ、トルコ、ブータン、ブルネイ、ベトナム）と米国。

  • Development of Asia QALI Database 2025

    Koji Nomura, Sho Inaba, and Shiori Nakayama

    Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University, 

    2024.11
    -
    2025.06
    , 

    Database science, Joint

    　View Details

    APO Productivity Databook 2025（2025年9月出版）において利用。測定期間は1970–2023年。


    労働投入データベース構築の対象国は、アジア25カ国（バングラデシュ、カンボジア、中華人民共和国、中華民国、フィジー、香港、インド、インドネシア、イラン・イスラム共和国、日本、大韓民国、ラオス人民民主共和国、マレーシア、モンゴル、ミャンマーネパール、パキスタン、フィリピン、シンガポール、スリランカ、タイ、トルコ、ブータン、ブルネイ、ベトナム）と米国。

  • Development of Asia Narual Resources Database 2025

    Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

    Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University, 

    2024.11
    -
    2025.06
    , 

    Database science, Joint

    　View Details

    APO Productivity Databook 2025（2025年9月出版）において利用。測定期間は1970–2023年。


    天然資源データベース（土地・鉱物資源）構築の対象国は、アジア25カ国（バングラデシュ、カンボジア、中華人民共和国、中華民国、フィジー、香港、インド、インドネシア、イラン・イスラム共和国、日本、大韓民国、ラオス人民民主共和国、マレーシア、モンゴル、ミャンマーネパール、パキスタン、フィリピン、シンガポール、スリランカ、タイ、トルコ、ブータン、ブルネイ、ベトナム）と米国。

  • Energy Cost Monitoring for Japan (ECM_JPN_202410a)

    Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

    Nomura Lab at Keio Economic Observatory, 

    2024.11
    , 

    Database science, Joint

    　View Details

    ECM_JPN_202410aは、EITE推計値の9月値までの更新、およびECM_JPN_202410公表後における統計の公表を部分的に反映したECM推計値の更新。

  • Quarterly GDP Growth (JQGDP_2024Q3) First Estimate (+JSNA 1st QE)

    Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

    Nomura Lab at Keio Economic Observatory, 

    2024.11
    , 

    Database science, Joint

    　View Details

    JQGDP_2024Q3 is the first estimate (released 10/31) and the second estimate (released 11/29) of the Q3 2024 GDP estimate.

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Awards 【 Display / hide 】

  • The 48th Nikkei Award (Nikkei Keizai-Tosho-Bunka-Sho)

    Koji Nomura, 2005.11, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Measurement of Capital and Productivity

    Type of Award： Award from publisher, newspaper, foundation, etc.

  • Keio Award

    Koji Nomura, 2005.11, Keio Univeristy

    Type of Award： Keio commendation etc.

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Courses Taught 【 Display / hide 】

  • THEORY OF INDEX NUMBERS

    2024

  • SEMINAR: ECONOMETRICS

    2024

  • SEMINAR (QD)

    2024

  • SEMINAR (QC)

    2024

  • SEMINAR (QB)(PAST YEARS)

    2024

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Social Activities 【 Display / hide 】

  • Workshop on Productivity Account for Bhutan

    Ministry of Finance, Royal Government of Bhutan,  (Thimphu)

    , 
    2024.10

  • Memorandum of Understanding on Implementation and Knowledge Transfer of Growth Accounting Framework for Bhutan

    Department of Macro-Fiscal and Development Finance, Ministry of Finance, Bhutan and Keio University

    , 
    2024.10

  • "Recent Trends in Real Energy Costs and EITE Outputs in Major Industrialized Countries"

    Cabinet Secretariat, Government of Japan,  7th GX Expert Working Group, GX Executive Committee, 

    , 
    2024.08

  • Bhutanese Industry-Level Productivity Account: Toward In-house Capacity Development and Publication

    Ministry of Finance, Royal Government of Bhutan,  (online)

    , 
    2024.07

  • "Seventh Energy Master Plan by Non-governmental Volunteers" (4th Edition)

    Taishi Sugiyama, Koji Nomura, Yoshioaki Oka, Tomohiko Okano, Koko Kato, Naoki Toda, Haruhisa Nakazawa, Tsuruhiko Nambu, Koji Hirai, Satoshi Matsuda, Ryuzo Yamamoto, Masami Kojima, Tetsuo Sawada, Hiroshi Tanaka, Yoshihiro Muronaka, Masayuki Yamaguchi, and Tadashi Watanabe

    , 
    2024.06

    　View Summary

    「非政府の有志による第7次エネルギー基本計画」では、安全保障と経済成長を重視したエネルギー政策として、「エネルギードミナンス（優勢）」を提唱する。エネルギードミナンスとは、米国共和党で用いられてきた概念である。それはすなわち、豊富で、安定し、安価なエネルギーを供給することを指す。それによって、日本が経済発展をし、防衛力を高め、自由、民主といった普遍的価値を守り発展させることが可能になる。エネルギードミナンスを確立するために11項目にわたる提言をする。
    （全177ページ・編著者17名）

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Media Coverage 【 Display / hide 】

  • 「トランプ氏の再登場と気候問題の変節」

    アゴラ, 2024.11

  • "The Light and Shadow of Empiricism" (in Japanese)

    Denki Shimbun, 2024.11

  • "APO Productivity Databook 2024: Economic Trends and Projections to 2035"

    Bakersfield.com, 2024.10

  • ”Japan and Germany's “Subsidy-Drenched” Policies - The Japanese Media's Obedience to Government-Private Sector Policy Coordination” (in Japanese)

    Energy Forum, EP Report, 2024.10

  • "Press Release"

    Ministry of Finance, Royal Government of Bhutan, 2024.10

    　View Summary

    The Department of Macro Fiscal and Development Finance (DMDF), Ministry of Finance and Keio University, Tokyo, Japan signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Implementation and Knowledge Transfer of Growth Accounting Framework (Productivity Database) for Bhutan at Thimphu on October 8, 2024.

    The MoU was signed to develop the internal technical capacity of the DMDF to construct/update the productivity account for Bhutan through technical knowledge transfer from Keio University. The implementation of the MoU is tentatively scheduled for 1.5 years and will be supported through technical assistance of UN ESCAP.

    The MoU was signed by Mr. Tshering Dorji, Director, DMDF and Mr. Koji Nomura, Director and Professor, Keio University.

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Academic Activities 【 Display / hide 】

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Committee Experiences 【 Display / hide 】

  • 2024.09
    -
    2024.12

    Consultant, UNESCAP (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific)

  • 2024.07
    -
    2025.03

    Committee member, Committee on Energy System Research, APIR (Asia Pacific Institute of Reseach)

  • 2024.07
    -
    2026.03

    Chief Examiner, WG on Steel Carbon Neutrality and Economic Growth Assessment, Japan Iron and Steel Institute

  • 2024.06
    -
    2025.03

    Committee Member, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Technical Committee for International Strategy against Global Warming

  • 2024.06
    -
    2025.03

    Chief, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Economic Analysis Working Group

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