NOMURA Koji

写真a

Affiliation

Research Centers and Institutes, Keio Economic Observatory （Mita）

Position

Professor

E-mail Address

E-mail address

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Career 【 Display / hide 】

  • 1996.04
    -
    2003.03

    Keio University,, Keio Economic Observatory,, Assistant Professor

  • 2003.04
    -
    2005.03

    Harvard University,, Kennedy School of Government,, CBG fellow

  • 2003.04
    -
    2017.03

    Keio University,, Keio Economic Observatory,, Associate Professor

  • 2005.07
    -
    2008.09

    Cabinet Office, Government of Japan,, ESRI (Economic Social Research Institute),, Visiting Fellow

  • 2006.11
    -
    2007.08

    OECD, STI (Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry),, Economist

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Academic Background 【 Display / hide 】

  • 1989.03

    Hakodate Chubu High School, Hokkaido

    Graduated

  • 1993.03

    Keio University, Faculty of Business and Commerce

    University, Graduated

  • 1995.03

    Keio University, Graduate School of Business and Commerce

    Graduate School, Completed, Master's course

  • 1998.03

    Keio University, Graduate School of Business and Commerce

    Graduate School, Withdrawal after completion of doctoral course requirements, Doctoral course

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Academic Degrees 【 Display / hide 】

  • M.A., Keio University, Coursework, 1995.03

  • Ph.D, Keio University, Dissertation, 2005

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Research Areas 【 Display / hide 】

  • Economic policy

  • Economic statistics

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Research Keywords 【 Display / hide 】

  • Economic Growth, Capital and Productivity

  • Energy and Environment

  • Labor Input and Human Capital

  • Japanese and Asian Economies

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Books 【 Display / hide 】

  • APO Productivity Databook 2019

    Koji Nomura and Fukunari Kimura, Asian Productivity Organization, 2019.09

    Scope: pp.1-184

    　View Summary

    In this twelfth edition in the APO Productivity Databook series, a useful reference is provided for the quality of economic growth and productivity, which are comparable across countries at different development stages in Asia. Productivity gains enable an economy to produce more for the same amount of inputs, or to consume less to produce the same amount of outputs. These gains are the only route to sustainable economic growth in the long run. Thus, it follows that monitoring and improving national productivity capability are important targets of public policy. Additionally, we develop the projections of economic growth and labor productivity improvements of Asian countries through 2030.
    Asia is a diverse regional economy in which countries have embarked on their own journey of economic development at different times and different paces. In this edition of the Databook, baseline indicators on economic growth and productivity are calculated for 30 Asian economies, representing the 20 Asian Productivity Organization member economies (APO20) and the 10 non-member economies in Asia. The APO20 consists of Bangladesh, Cambodia, the Republic of China (ROC), Fiji, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, the Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran), Japan, the Republic of Korea (Korea), the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Malaysia, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam. The 10 non-member economies in Asia are: the Kingdom of Bhutan (Bhutan), Brunei Darussalam (Brunei), the People’s Republic of China (China), Myanmar, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) consisting of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In addition, Australia, the European Union (EU), Turkey, and the United States (US) are included as reference economies. This edition covers the period from 1970 to 2017.

  • APO Productivity Databook 2018

    Koji Nomura and Fukunari Kimura, Asian Productivity Organization, 2018.09

    Scope: pp.1-170

    　View Summary

    This is the eleventh edition in the APO Productivity Databook series. Productivity gains, which enable an economy to produce more for the same amount of inputs, or to consume less to produce the same amount of outputs, are the only route to sustainable economic growth in the long run. Thus, it follows that monitoring and improving national productivity capability are important targets of public policy. The Databook aims to provide a useful reference for the quality of economic growth and productivity, which are comparable across countries at different development stages in Asia. A significant achievement of this edition of the Databook is the projection out to 2030 of the future economic growth. In this edition of the Databook, baseline indicators on economic growth and productivity are calculated for 30 Asian economies, representing the 20 Asian Productivity Organization member economies (APO20) and the 10 non-member economies in Asia. The APO20 consists of Bangladesh, Cambodia, the Republic of China (ROC), Fiji, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, the Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran), Japan, the Republic of Korea (Korea), the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Malaysia, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam. The 10 non-member economies in Asia are: the People’s Republic of China (China), the Kingdom of Bhutan (Bhutan), Brunei, Myanmar, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that consists of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In addition, Australia, the European Union (EU), Turkey, and the United States (US) are included as reference economies. This edition covers the period from 1970 to 2016.

  • Green Productivity and Productivity Measurement Program for Myanmar

    Koji Nomura et al., Asian Productivity Organization, 2018.09

    Scope: pp.1-123

  • "Productivity Growth in Asia and its Country Origins," in Deb Kusum Das (eds.) Productivity Dynamics in Emerging and Industrialized Countries

    Koji Nomura, Routledge, 2018.04

    Scope: Chapter 3 (pp.81-112)

    　View Summary

    © 2018 selection and editorial matter, Deb Kusum Das; individual chapters, the contributors. Recovery from the global financial crisis of 2008-09 has been notably slow in the European economy, with its growth rate for 2010-14 steady at 0.5 percent per annum on average, relative to 2.1 percent growth in the pre-crisis period of 2000-07 (as represented by 15 member countries of EU prior to enlargement). In contrast, the United States has managed to raise its growth rate to 1.9 percent for 2010-14, and is beginning to return to its long-term growth track. The Asian economy, which has become increasingly autonomous from the Western economies and even contributed to stabilizing the global economy at the time of the global financial crisis, has been maintaining a stable economic growth of 5.3 percent per annum on average during 2010-14. Yet, this represents a slowdown of 1 percentage point from the level recorded in the pre-crisis period. Our study indicates that it is mainly due to the reduction in the growth of total factor productivity (TFP) of the Asian economy.

  • APO Productivity Databook 2017

    Koji Nomura and Fukunari Kimura, Asian Productivity Organization, 2017.09

    Scope: pp.1-166

    　View Summary

    This publication is the tenth edition in the APO Productivity Databook series. The Databook aims to provide a useful reference for the quality of economic growth in Asia. It presents authoritative estimates of productivity and its decomposition, which are comparable across countries at different development stages in the middle and long run. Productivity gains, which enable an economy to produce more for the same amount of inputs or to consume less to produce the same amount of outputs, are the only route to sustainable economic growth in the long run. Thus it follows that monitoring and improving national productivity capability are important targets of public policy.
    In this edition of the Databook, baseline indicators on economic growth and productivity are calculated for 30 Asian economies, representing the 20 Asian Productivity Organization member economies (APO20) and the 10 non-member economies in Asia. The APO20 consists of Bangladesh, Cambodia, the Republic of China (ROC), Fiji, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, the Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran), Japan, the Republic of Korea (Korea), the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Malaysia, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam. The 10 non-member economies in Asia are: the People’s Republic of China (China), the Kingdom of Bhutan (Bhutan), Brunei, Myanmar, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that consists of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In addition, Australia, the European Union (EU), Turkey, and the United States (US) are included as reference economies. This edition covers the period from 1970 to 2015.

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Papers 【 Display / hide 】

  • "Energy Productivity Improvement and Overall Efficiency" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    RCGW Discussion Paper （Research Center of Global Warming, Research Institute of Capital Formation, Development Bank of Japan)   （ 64 ）  2019.09

    Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work, Except for reviews

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    「環境と成長の好循環」の実現のため、戦後日本経済の経験から何を学ぶことができるだろうか。本稿は、エネルギー消費分析用に拡張された日本経済の産業別生産性統計（1955–2016年）に基づき、エネルギー生産性の改善（energy productivity imporovment: EPI）と全体効率としての全要素生産性（total factor productivity: TFP）の測定を通じて、生産効率の観点から環境（EPI）と経済（TFP）との循環構造を分析することを目的としている。第一の方向性は、経済から環境である。EPIの実現は、エネルギー投入一単位あたりの資本・労働投入、そしてTFPによる寄与度へと分解される。経済成長のプロセスにおいては、同量の生産を実現するために、一単位の労働がより多くのエネルギー投入を必要とするような技術変化（労働浅化）がほぼ一貫して見いだされる。労働浅化は、労働から資本への代替、そして資本を稼働させるためのエネルギー消費の拡大という、二つの技術変化の結果として捉えられる。それは直接的にはEPIを低迷させるが、労働生産性とTFPを上昇させ、労働浅化によるマイナス効果を相殺してEPIに寄与している。戦後日本経済の長期EPIの実現は、全体効率の改善としてのTFP成長による貢献がもっとも大きな要因であり、省エネ投資による貢献を上回っている。
    第二の方向性は、環境から経済である。TFP成長は、労働生産性、資本生産性、そしてエネルギー生産性変化の総合効果として解される。オイルショック後にはエネルギー多消費産業を中心として高いEPIが実現したものの、安価に利用可能な省エネ技術が制約されていく中で、その後の省エネ投資によっては資本生産性が大きく低下し、TFP成長がマイナスへと転じる傾向が見いだされる。また近年のサービス業では、労働浅化の逆行によってEPIが実現しており、それは労働生産性とTFPの成長を犠牲とするものである。こうした傾向は、EPIという一面の効率性改善の探求が、全体的な生産効率の改善と両立することの難しさを示唆している。

  • "Increasing Vulnerability of the Japanese Economy to Energy Price Fluctuations" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    RCGW Discussion Paper （Research Center of Global Warming, Research Institute of Capital Formation, Development Bank of Japan)   （ 63 ）  2019.08

    Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work, Except for reviews

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    本稿は、日本経済における実質単位エネルギーコスト（RUEC）とその日米格差の測定によって、エネルギー価格高騰による経済的な耐性を評価することを目的としている。日米比較によれば、日米RUEC格差は米国のシェール革命以降に急速に拡大しており、近年では米国に比して60%上回る水準にまで拡大している。それは戦後のピークに達する水準であり、エネルギー価格変動に対する日本経済の脆弱性が相対的に高まっていることを示している。日米RUEC格差の拡大要因は、エネルギー生産性格差の縮小と実質エネルギー価格差の拡大の両面によっている。近年、米国のエネルギー生産性の改善率は高く、日本の優位性はこの20年間で半減している。
    日本経済における長期的な傾向をみれば、RUECが上昇へと転じた転換点は1990年代半ばである。オイルショック後に強化されたエネルギー価格高騰に対する耐性は、この20年間に再び脆弱化している。第一の要因は、おもに賃金率低下によって誘導されたデフレ型の実質エネルギー価格の上昇である。1990年代半ば以降、二度のオイルショックを含む期間（1973–1995年）に比して、名目エネルギー価格の上昇率は1/3ほどに縮小されたが、実質エネルギー価格の上昇率としては年率1.0%から1.5%へとむしろ高まっている。デフレ型のRUEC上昇は、エネルギー価格高騰に対する耐性の脆弱化がエネルギー多消費産業のみではなく、より広範な産業活動へ及ぶことを意味している。第二の要因は、エネルギー生産性改善における低迷である。実質エネルギー価格上昇が逓増傾向にありながらも、安価に利用可能な省エネ技術は限られたものとなり、エネルギー生産性の改善率は逓減している。
    長期化するデフレ経済は、エネルギー価格高騰に対する脆弱性も増大させてきた。日本経済におけるエネルギー価格高騰への耐性強化のためには、再エネ推進のためのコスト拡大の抑制、原子力や石炭利用を含めた適切なエネルギーミックスの実現とともに、労働生産性の改善を通じた賃金上昇や高付加価値化など、デフレ経済からの脱却のための経済政策が求められる。

  • "Benchmark 2011 Integrated Estimates of the Japan-U.S. Price Level Index for Industry Outputs"

    Koji Nomura, Kozo Miyagawa, and Jon D. Samuels

    BEA Working Paper （Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Department of Commerce)   2018.12

    Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work, Except for reviews

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    This paper provides new benchmark estimates of industry-level price differentials between Japan and the U.S. for 2011 based on a bilateral price accounting model anchored to the Japan-US input-output tables. We apply the model to translate available demand-side data on purchaser’s price PPPs for final uses (e.g. the Eurostat-OECD PPPs) and intermediate uses (e.g. the METI survey) to unmeasured producer’s price PPPs for industry output. These PPPs allow us to produce price level indexes at the industry level, which we use to assess price competitiveness between Japan and the U.S. Under the nominal exchange rate of 110.6 yen per dollar as of the beginning of July 2018, we estimate that producers in Japan have a pricing advantage in 66 of 106 industries in the manufacturing sector, and in 24 of 50 industries in the service sector. We conclude that price competitiveness of Japanese service industries has considerably improved in the more recent time period. However, Japanese producers have a significant price disadvantage in comparison to their U.S. counterparts in electricity and gas supply, and most of the agricultural producing industries.

  • "Measurement of Depreciation Rates using Microdata from Disposal Survey of Japan"

    Koji Nomura and Yutaka Suga

    The 35th IARIW General Conference, Copenhagen, Denmark  2018.08

    Research paper (other science council materials etc.), Joint Work, Except for reviews

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    This paper estimates the asset service lives (ASL), the rates of depreciation, and the declining balance rates (DBR) based on a finely-defined classification of assets, which distinguishes 369 asset types, using data on ASL and aged-prices of disposed assets collected in the Survey on Capital Expenditures and Disposals from 2006 to 2014 in Japan. This survey collected 1,111,913 data of disposed assets from business accounts of private corporations, of which 936,861 are defined as retired assets acquired new and are used to estimate the survival profiles, and of which 84,291 are defined as sold assets for continued uses with positive prices are used to estimate the age-price profiles.
    The Japan’s rates of geometric depreciation estimated in this study are broadly similar to the estimates at Statistics Canada (Baldwin, Liu, and Tanguay, 2015), but considerably higher than those used in the U.S. BEA (2013), e.g. 7.5%, 7.3%, and 3.2%, respectively, for industrial building construction, 7.6%, 6.7%, and 2.5% for office buildings, 29.1%, 27.9%, and 19.3% for automobiles, 24.4%, 24.9%, and 11.2% for telecommunication equipment, and 17.9%, 17.2%, and 11.0% for industrial machinery. The sources in these gaps are due to the shorter ASL and the higher DBR in Japan and Canada, compared to the U.S. The exceptional asset is computers. Japan’s rate of depreciation for computers is estimated as 29.6%, compared to 43.1% in Canada and 33.9% in the U.S. The gap is originated from much longer ASL observed in Japan (8.0 years on average), compared to Canada (4.9 years).

  • "Rebalancing Benchmark Input-Output Production System by Revision in Margin Matrix"

    Koji Nomura and Kozo Miyagawa

    Economic Statistics Research （Keizai Sangyo Toukei Kyokai)  46 （ I ） 29 - 55 2018.06

    Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work, Except for reviews

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    産業連関表（基本表）における卸・小売マージンは、日本の国民経済計算体系（JSNA）での商業生産額のベンチマーク推計値となるとともに、商品別マージン率はコモディティフローへと組み込まれ、GDP統計の精度に対して直接・間接的に大きな影響を与えている。野村・宮川・新井（2017）では産業連関表における商業マージン額について、その推計における諸課題を検討し、とくにはじめての「経済センサス–活動調査」に基づく2011年表において大幅な過小推計にあることを指摘している。本稿では、その再検討とともに基本分類レベルでのマージン表の改訂値を求め、産業連関体系のリバランスを通じてGDPにあたえる時系列的な影響の評価をおこなう。本稿での推計結果によれば、商業マージンの過小推計バイアスによるGDPとしての欠落は1995年では4.8兆円、2000年5.1兆円、2005年6.6兆円であり、2011年では25.6兆円と評価される。そうした改訂による名目GDP成長率としての影響は、2000年代半ばまでは年率0.1%ポイント未満と軽微であるが、2005–2011年では年率0.6%ポイントほど（年平均マイナス1.07%成長からマイナス0.44%成長へ）の上方改訂となる。現行のGDP統計に内在する過小推計バイアスは、かなり蓋然性が高いと考えられる諸仮定のもとで導かれたものであり、2011年基準JSNAにおけるGDP統計の再検討が求められよう。

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Papers, etc., Registered in KOARA 【 Display / hide 】

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Reviews, Commentaries, etc. 【 Display / hide 】

  • Development of Hydropower Plants by Yukichi and Momosuke Fukuzawa

    Koji Nomura

    Energy Policy Report (Energy Forum Inc.)   2019.08

    Introduction and explanation (commerce magazine), Single Work

  • 「エネルギー生産性改善と隠れた構造変化」

    Koji Nomura

    RIETI コラム (RIETI)   2019.06

    Introduction and explanation (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

  • Energy Productivity Improvement and Invisible Structural Changes

    Koji Nomura

    RIETI Column (RIETI)   2019.06

    Introduction and explanation (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

  • Economic impacts of non-nuclear power policy in South Korea

    Koji Nomura

    Energy Policy Report (Energy Forum Inc.)   2019.05

    Introduction and explanation (commerce magazine), Single Work

  • Borrowed Technology and Unintended Energy Productivity Improvement

    Koji Nomura

    Energy Policy Report (Energy Forum Inc.)   2019.02

    Introduction and explanation (commerce magazine), Single Work

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Presentations 【 Display / hide 】

  • How to Build the Next-generation Energy Infrastructure ?

    Koji Nomura

    Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. (Gobancho Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo) , 2019.09, Public discourse, seminar, tutorial, course, lecture and others, Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc.

  • Energy Productivity Improvement and Overall Efficiency－ Lessons from the Postwar Japanese Economic Growth

    Koji Nomura

    Springer Briefs (DBJ Series) (Otemachi, Tokyo) , 2019.09, Public discourse, seminar, tutorial, course, lecture and others, Development Bank of Japan, RICF (Research Institute of Capital Formation)

  • Measuring Quality-adjusted Price and Quantity of Education Outputs in Japan

    Koji Nomura

    ESRI Workshop, 2019.02, Oral Presentation(guest/special)

  • Are We Entering a New Golden Age of Energy Productivity Improvement?－Lessons from the Japanese economy in the 20th century and the prospects for 2050

    Koji Nomura

    FY2018 ALPS International Symposium (Toranomon Hills, Tokyo) , 2019.02, Symposium, Workshop, Panelist (nomination), RITE

  • "Will the Golden Age of Energy Productivity Improvement Realize Again?" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    Japan Society of Energy and Resources (JSER) (Kozo Keikau Engineering Inc.) , 2018.11, Oral Presentation(general), Japan Society of Energy and Resources (JSER)

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Works 【 Display / hide 】

  • Development of APO Productivity Database 2019

    Koji Nomura, Hiroshi Shirane, Shiori Nakayama, and Naoyuki Akashi

    Asian Productivity Organization and Keio Economic Observatory, 

    2018.10
    -
    2019.08
    , 

    Database, Joint

  • Development of Asia QALI Database 2019

    Koji Nomura, Naoyuki Akashi, and Hiroshi Shirane

    Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University, 

    2018.10
    -
    2019.07
    , 

    Database, Joint

  • Development of Time-series Extended Input-Output Table for Education Sector (EIOT)

    Koji Nomura and Hiroshi Shirane

    Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, and Keio Economic Observatory, 

    2018.08
    -
    2019.02
    , 

    Database, Joint

  • Development of Database on Education Service Outputs of Japan (ESJ)

    Koji Nomura, Hiroshi Shirane, Masafumi Yamamoto, and Yu Fujii

    Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, and Keio Economic Observatory, 

    2018.06
    -
    2019.02
    , 

    Database, Joint

  • Development of KEO Database 2018 (Industry-Level Productivity Database)

    Koji Nomura, Hiroshi Shirane, and Shiori Nakayama

    Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University, 

    2018.01
    -
    2018.07
    , 

    Database, Joint

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Awards 【 Display / hide 】

  • The 48th Nikkei Award (Nikkei Keizai-Tosho-Bunka-Sho)

    NOMURA KOJI, 2005.11, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Measurement of Capital and Productivity

    Type of Award： Other Awards

  • Keio Award

    NOMURA KOJI, 2005.11, Keio Univeristy

    Type of Award： Keio commendation etc.

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Courses Taught 【 Display / hide 】

  • THEORY OF INDEX NUMBERS

    2019

  • SEMINAR

    2019

  • INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS

    2019

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Social Activities 【 Display / hide 】

  • 教育の質の変化を反映した価格・実質アウトプットの把握手法に関する調査研究（生産活動に着目した研究）

    ESRI, Cabinet Office

    , 
    2019.10
    -
    2020.02

  • Japan's Energy Mix (News Study Room)

    Sankei Living Shimbun

    , 
    2019.03

  • Commentator, ISFJ Policy Forum

    Inter-university Seminar for the Future of Japan

    , 
    2018.12

  • 教育の質の変化を反映した価格・実質アウトプットの把握手法に関する調査研究（生産活動に着目した研究）

    （ESRI, Cabinet Office)

    , 
    2018.07
    -
    2019.02

  • White Paper on Manufacturing Industries

    METI

    , 
    2018.05

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Committee Experiences 【 Display / hide 】

  • 2019.10
    -
    2020.03

    委員, エム・アール・アイ リサーチ アソシエイツ（内閣府経済社会総合研究所委託）　教育の質の変化を反映した価格・実質アウトプットの把握手法に関する委員会

  • 2019.09
    -
    2020.03

    Council Member, German-Japanese Energy Transition Council (GJETC)

  • 2019.08
    -
    2020.03

    委員, 21世紀政策研究所　気候変動問題に関する研究会

  • 2019.08
    -
    2020.03

    委員, 地球環境産業技術研究機構　地球温暖化対策国際戦略技術委員会

  • 2019.08
    -
    2020.03

    委員, 地球環境産業技術研究機構　イノベーション・投資促進検討ワーキンググループ

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