NOMURA Koji

写真a

Affiliation

Research Centers and Institutes, Keio Economic Observatory (Mita)

Position

Professor

E-mail Address

E-mail address

Related Websites
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Career 【 Display / hide 】

  • 1996.04
    -
    2003.03

    Keio University,, Keio Economic Observatory,, Assistant Professor

  • 2003.04
    -
    2005.03

    Harvard University,, Kennedy School of Government,, CBG fellow

  • 2003.04
    -
    2017.03

    Keio University,, Keio Economic Observatory,, Associate Professor

  • 2005.07
    -
    2008.09

    Cabinet Office, Government of Japan,, ESRI (Economic Social Research Institute),, Visiting Fellow

  • 2006.11
    -
    2007.08

    OECD, STI (Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry),, Economist

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Academic Background 【 Display / hide 】

  • 1989.03

    Hakodate Chubu High School, Hokkaido

    Graduated

  • 1993.03

    Keio University, Faculty of Business and Commerce

    University, Graduated

  • 1995.03

    Keio University, Graduate School of Business and Commerce

    Graduate School, Completed, Master's course

  • 1998.03

    Keio University, Graduate School of Business and Commerce

    Graduate School, Withdrawal after completion of doctoral course requirements, Doctoral course

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Academic Degrees 【 Display / hide 】

  • M.A., Keio University, Coursework, 1995.03

  • Ph.D, Keio University, Dissertation, 2005

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Research Areas 【 Display / hide 】

  • Humanities & Social Sciences / Economic statistics

  • Humanities & Social Sciences / Economic policy

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Research Keywords 【 Display / hide 】

  • Economic Growth, Capital and Productivity

  • Energy and Environment

  • Labor Input and Human Capital

  • Japanese and Asian Economies

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Books 【 Display / hide 】

  • Hydropower-Led Economic Growth in Bhutan: Development of Industry-Level Productivity Account, 1990–2022

    Koji Nomura, Springer, 2025.06

    　View Summary

    This book provides a comprehensive analysis of Bhutan’s economic growth and productivity dynamics from 1990 to 2022, with a special focus on hydropower development. Through the construction of detailed industry-level productivity accounts, the study addresses significant data gaps in Bhutan’s national accounts, measuring outputs and inputs across various sectors and developing quality-adjusted labor and capital input series. The analysis reveals the complexities of Bhutan’s hydropower-led growth strategy: while the sector has driven substantial economic growth, its contribution to overall productivity improvement has been limited. The electricity sector shows gains in labor productivity but declining capital productivity, resulting in stagnant Total Factor Productivity (TFP). The study also examines productivity trends in non-electricity sectors and addresses potential “Dutch disease” effects on manufacturing and agricultural competitiveness. International comparisons place Bhutan’s productivity performance in a regional context, revealing significant gaps in productivity performance, particularly when compared to India, Bhutan’s largest trading partner and a regional economic benchmark. This comparative analysis informs policy recommendations for achieving more balanced and sustainable economic growth. The findings are particularly relevant for Bhutan’s Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (2024–2029), which emphasizes productivity improvements across all economic sectors. The book serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, economists, and researchers interested in development economics, particularly those focused on the unique challenges faced by small, landlocked nations pursuing sustainable economic development.

  • Energy Productivity and Economic Growth: Experiences of the Japanese Industries, 1955–2019

    Koji Nomura, Springer, 2023.01,  Page： 268

    　View Summary

    Energy costs in the economy amount to only a few percent of gross domestic product, but their importance to economic growth is much greater than their apparent number. Energy is used in almost all production and consumption activities, and energy price changes induce significant spillover effects throughout the economic system. More importantly, stable and affordable access to energy is a critical factor in determining the rate of capital accumulation in a domestic economy and, hence, labor productivity growth. The expansion of production per hour worked is achieved by using more and higher quality capital, which requires more energy to operate. This book aims to provide robust observational facts on energy productivity improvement (EPI) and to analyze the mechanisms of EPI achieved in Japan’s economic growth from 1955 to 2019. Linking the productivity account with energy statistics enables us to attempt not only to develop a better indicator of energy productivity but also to evaluate the EPI with other significant changes in the production process, such as capital productivity, labor productivity, and even the overall efficiency measured in terms of total factor productivity. This book is a valuable resource for researchers and policymakers seeking to understand the role of energy throughout the economy and for economic planners seeking to ensure the efficient use of energy now and into the future.

  • Energy Productivity in Japan's Economic Growth: Exploring Possibilities for Balancing Economy and Environment (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura, Keio University Press, 2021.06,  Page： 288

    　View Summary

    拙速なエネルギー環境政策の強化が更なる経済停滞を招く危険を説いた警世の書。日本のエネルギー効率が「環境規制」によってではなく「経済成長」下で改善されてきた事実を示し、２０５０年「脱炭素社会」を見据え、その移行期における国際的に調和したエネルギー環境政策を提言する。

    目次
    第１章　経済成長とエネルギー
    第２章　エネルギー生産性改善の源泉
    第３章　エネルギー価格高騰に対する耐性
    第４章　エネルギー生産性と全体効率
    第５章　間接的な電力輸入
    第６章　日本のエネルギー転換に向けて

  • Measurement of Capital and Productivity in Japan (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura, Keio University Press, 2004.11,  Page： 660

    　View Summary

    わが国の資本形成から資本ストックの蓄積、資本サービスへの変換、資本サービス投入による経済成長への寄与まで、生産と資本、資本と生産を結ぶ整合ある測定を行い、日米比較とともに高度成長期から２０００年までの経済成長を描いた本格的実証分析。

    目次
    第１章　資本の測定
    第２章　資本ストック
    第３章　資本サービス価格
    第４章　資本サービスと経済成長
    補章
    終章　結びとして

  • APO Productivity Databook 2024

    Koji Nomura and Mun S. Ho, Asian Productivity Organization, Keio University Press, 2024.09,  Page： 201

    　View Summary

    This seventeenth edition of the APO Productivity Databook describes the quality of economic growth and productivity by providing comparable accounts across countries with different accounting systems. This is intended to serve as a useful resource for policymakers and researchers. Productivity gains, which enable an economy to produce more with the same inputs or to achieve the same output with fewer inputs, are crucial for ensuring sustainable economic growth in the long run. Improving national productivity performance is a key public policy objective, which requires reliable monitoring of past performance. This edition covers more than half a century of Asian economic development, from 1970 to 2022. Additionally, this edition includes projections for economic growth and labor productivity improvements up to 2035. Baseline economic growth and productivity indicators are calculated for 31 Asian economies, representing the 21 Asian Productivity Organization member economies (APO21) and the ten non-member economies in Asia.1 The APO21 consists of Bangladesh, Cambodia, the Republic of China (ROC), Fiji, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, the Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran), Japan, the Republic of Korea (Korea), the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Malaysia, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkiye, and Vietnam. The ten non-member economies in Asia are the Kingdom of Bhutan (Bhutan), Brunei Darussalam (Brunei), the People’s Republic of China (China), Myanmar, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), consisting of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In addition, Australia, the European Union (EU), France, Italy, Germany, New Zealand, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US) are included as reference economies.

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Papers 【 Display / hide 】

  • "Estimating Flexible Functional Forms using Macroeconomic Data"

    W. Erwin Diewert, Koji Nomura, and Chihiro Shimizu

    Empirical Economics (Springer)   2025.03

    Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work

    　View Summary

    The paper estimates a flexible functional form for a joint cost function using US aggregate data for the years 1970–2022. There are four outputs (consumption, government,investment and exports) and six inputs (imports, labour, machinery and equipment services, structure services, other capital services and land services). Curvature conditions on the joint cost function are imposed without destroying the flexibility of the functional form. Various elasticities of supply and demand are estimated along with technical progress bias terms for each input. When using aggregate time series data based on the System of National Accounts, the paper shows that it is probably better to estimate a joint cost function rather than a gross output function or a GDP function. The paper also shows that assuming that an aggregate production function has constant elasticities of substitution is not appropriate for the US. Finally, the importance of including land as an aggregate input is stressed.

  • "Energy Price Surge and Widening Real Price Differentials in the Post-Pandemic Era: A Comparative Analysis of Seven Major Countries" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

    KEO Discussion Paper (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University)   ( 185 ) 1 - 44 2025.03

    Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

    　View Summary

    This paper aims to measure and analyze the changes in international price differentials in comprehensive final energy consumption accompanying the recent energy price surges across seven major countries (Japan, China, South Korea, the U.S., the UK, Germany, and France). For measuring international price differentials, we employ not only the Price Level Index (PLI) for energy but also the Real Price Level Index (Real PLI), which accounts for the price differentials of outputs produced using energy inputs. Real PLI is an indicator independent of exchange rate fluctuations. Our preliminary estimates from January 2015 to December 2024 reveal the following observations. First, the US has maintained an overwhelming advantage in real energy price differentials even before the pandemic, with the other six countries bearing energy price burdens 1.8 to 2.2 times higher than the U.S. Second, while energy prices surged similarly across major countries during the global economic recovery from the pandemic beginning in early 2021, the real price differentials relative to the U.S. also expanded in five countries (excluding China) during the same period. These differentials widened to 2.3–2.7 times at their peak and continue to persist at 2.3–2.5 times the U.S. level. Third, China has significantly suppressed energy price increases during this period, particularly for coal and electricity, maintaining its price differential with the U.S. at nearly the pre-pandemic level. As the second Trump administration pursues energy dominance by expanding the use of inexpensive fossil fuels, further widening of energy price differentials and loss of international competitiveness are inevitable if Japan and European countries continue their current decarbonization policies. The Japanese economy should consider shifting toward policies aimed at reducing these international price differentials.

  • "How should companies face the GX (Green Transformation)?" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    SBI Research Review (SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute)  7   24 - 36 2025.02

    Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

    　View Summary

    政府はGX（グリーントランスフォーメーション）によって産業競争力の強化を目指すが、その実現のための前提条件は満たされていない。現在、脱炭素技術は依然として高コストのままであり、主要国間の温室効果ガス排出削減の負担格差はさらに拡大しようとしている。この四半世紀のグローバルなサプライチェーンの深化の基底には、削減負担の大きい日本や欧州から負担の小さい中国などへ生産移転が進み、世界全体のCO2排出量は増加する、カーボンリーケージ（炭素の漏れ）が存在していた。2010年代後半からは先進国の脱炭素政策の加速により、弊害はエネルギー多消費製造業に拡大している。GXの創出するグリーン需要は一部の企業に一時的な恩恵を与えるが、持続的な実需とはなりにくい。政策創出需要が減退すれば、日本はさらなる空洞化とともに、高コスト技術導入による生産性低下が不可避となる。脱炭素政策からの転換に備え、企業はバランスのある経営戦略が求められる。

  • "Indirect Steel Trade in the Postwar Japanese Economy" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    KEO Discussion Paper (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University)   ( 184 ) 1 - 28 2025.02

    Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

    　View Summary

    Since the late 2010s, when the signs of a full-scale acceleration of global decarbonization policies began to emerge, steel production in Japan and Germany has declined almost linearly. While this decline is generally attributed to weak domestic demand, understanding changes in domestic demand within the steel industry, which primarily produces intermediate goods, requires identifying the sources of final demand. This study examines recent trends in steel production decline while measuring structural changes in Japan's direct steel trade and indirect trade through downstream products in the postwar economy.
    In contemporary Japan, trends in domestic steel demand are heavily influenced by changes in indirect exports and imports, which are not readily observable in conventional statistics. Since the late 1980s, Japan’s indirect exports of steel have exceeded its direct exports. Additionally, the effective import dependence of steel (the sum of direct and indirect imports) has consistently increased since the late 1970s. Until around 1990, this rise was driven by an expansion in direct imports, whereas since the late 1990s, indirect imports have played a more significant role. If the acceleration of decarbonization policies further facilitates the offshore production of downstream products such as automobiles and machinery, the contraction of indirect steel exports and the expansion of indirect imports may lead to a self-reinforcing cycle of deindustrialization, exacerbating the decline in domestic production. Without considering indirect trade, such production decline risks being misinterpreted as merely a consequence of weak domestic demand.

  • "Recent Steel Production Decline in Japan: The Interactive Effects of Carbon Neutrality Policy and Production Relocation" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    Economic Statistics Research (Keizai Sangyo Toukei Kyokai)  52 ( Ⅲ ) 1 - 22 2024.12

    Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

    　View Summary

    本稿は、2018年末以降から現在まで続く日本の鉄鋼生産の急激な減退について、直接輸出入と下流製品に組み込まれる間接輸出入の両面から分析している。そうした生産減退は、欧州や日本を中心に脱炭素政策（カーボンニュートラル政策）が強化され、排出削減が困難であるという技術制約のある鉄鋼業においても従来以上の取り組みが求められるようになったdeep decarbonizationの模索・推進期とおおむね一致している。直近における鉄鋼の構造変化を把握する資料の利用には制約があるものの、近年の生産減退は、海外への生産移転が消極的に同意する環境規制と環境規制の強化が促す生産移転という、意図せざる相互作用とその循環構造によると評価される。現実を直視しない脱炭素政策の加速は、エネルギー多消費的な素材産業にこそ強みを持つ日本経済の産業基盤に対し深刻な影響を及ぼしている。

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Papers, etc., Registered in KOARA 【 Display / hide 】

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Reviews, Commentaries, etc. 【 Display / hide 】

  • "Policy-driven Virtual Currency" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun)   2025.04

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

  • "Thirty Years of Empirical Economics at KEO" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    Keio Economic Observatory 60th Anniversary (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University)   2025.03

    Other, Single Work

  • "The Realities of Sluggish Domestic Demand" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun)   2025.03

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

  • "Roundtable Discussion: The Economy and Society in 2040" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    SBI Research Review (SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute)  7   91 - 98 2025.02

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

  • ”Energy Price Level Index - Crisis Level due to Excessive Carbon Neutral Policy” (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    Energy Policy Report (Energy Forum Inc.)   2025.02

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

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Presentations 【 Display / hide 】

  • Dynamic Sources of Growth: TFP Change and Capital Accumulation

    Mun S. Ho, Koji Nomura, and Jon D. Samuels

    The 8th World KLEMS Conference (International House of Japan, Roppongi, Tokyo) , 

    2025.03
    , 

    Oral presentation (general)

    　View Summary

    We identify and measure two impacts of industry-level total factor productivity (TFP) growth on aggregate price change in the U.S. and Japan. The first is a standard effect from the definition of aggregate GDP. TFP change lowers aggregate prices ceteris paribus. The second is that a change in TFP in the production of investment goods lowers the cost of capital via lower investment prices. We call this the cost-of-capital effect and formulate an expanded growth accounting framework to capture both effects. We apply it to a harmonized dataset for the two countries and find that the standard effect has fallen since the peak around 2000 due to lower TFP growth and a diminished share of GDP. However, the cost-of-capital effect has risen in importance and offsets part of this decline in the standard effect.

  • Estimating Flexible Functional Forms Using Macroeconomic Data

    W. Erwin Diewert, Koji Nomura, and Chihiro Shimizu

    The 8th World KLEMS Conference (International House of Japan, Roppongi, Tokyo) , 

    2025.03
    , 

    Oral presentation (general)

    　View Summary

    The paper estimates a flexible functional form for a joint cost function using US aggregate data for the years 1970-2022. There are four outputs (consumption, government, investment and exports) and six inputs (imports, labour, machinery and equipment services, structure services, other capital services and land services). Curvature conditions on the joint cost function are imposed without destroying the flexibility of the functional form. Various elasticities of supply and demand are estimated along with technical progress bias terms for each input. When using aggregate time series data based on the System of National Accounts, the paper shows that it is probably better to estimate a joint cost function rather than a gross output function or a GDP function. The paper also shows that assuming that an aggregate production function has constant elasticities of substitution is not appropriate for the US. Finally, the importance of including land as an aggregate input is stressed.

  • "Challenges and Directions for Climate Change Measures that are Compatible with Strengthening Industrial Competitiveness" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    Global Environment Subcommittee, Keidanren Environment Committee (Keidanren Kaikan) , 

    2025.03
    , 

    Public lecture, seminar, tutorial, course, or other speech, Keidanren

  • "Soaring Energy Prices and Increasing Real Price Level Index" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    RITE ALPS IV Economic Analysis Working Group, 

    2025.02
    , 

    Oral presentation (general), RITE

  • "SBI High-Resolution Sectoral General Equilibrium Model for Assessing Business, Innovation, and Policy (SBI-BIP)" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    "Reseach on Japanese Economy in 2040", 

    2025.02
    , 

    Oral presentation (general), SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute

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Works 【 Display / hide 】

  • Development of APO Productivity Database 2025

    Koji Nomura, Sho Inaba, and Shiori Nakayama

    Asian Productivity Organization and Keio Economic Observatory, 

    2024.11
    -
    2025.06
    , 

    Database science, Joint

    　View Details

    APO Productivity Databook 2025（2025年9月出版）において利用。測定期間は1970–2023年。

    生産性統計構築の対象国は、アジア25カ国（バングラデシュ、カンボジア、中華人民共和国、中華民国、フィジー、香港、インド、インドネシア、イラン・イスラム共和国、日本、大韓民国、ラオス人民民主共和国、マレーシア、モンゴル、ミャンマーネパール、パキスタン、フィリピン、シンガポール、スリランカ、タイ、トルコ、ブータン、ブルネイ、ベトナム）と米国。

  • Development of Asia QALI Database 2025

    Koji Nomura, Sho Inaba, and Shiori Nakayama

    Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University, 

    2024.11
    -
    2025.06
    , 

    Database science, Joint

    　View Details

    APO Productivity Databook 2025（2025年9月出版）において利用。測定期間は1970–2023年。


    労働投入データベース構築の対象国は、アジア25カ国（バングラデシュ、カンボジア、中華人民共和国、中華民国、フィジー、香港、インド、インドネシア、イラン・イスラム共和国、日本、大韓民国、ラオス人民民主共和国、マレーシア、モンゴル、ミャンマーネパール、パキスタン、フィリピン、シンガポール、スリランカ、タイ、トルコ、ブータン、ブルネイ、ベトナム）と米国。

  • Energy Cost Monitoring for Japan (ECM_JPN_202503)

    Koji Nomura, Sho Inaba, and Mansaku Yoshida

    Nomura Lab at Keio Economic Observatory, 

    2025.04
    , 

    Database science, Joint

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    ECM_JPN_202503は、①2025年2月（EITE指標は2025年1月）までの更新、②2025年12月までの予測値を公表。
    エネルギーに対する補助金は、「燃料油価格激変緩和対策事業」（2022年1月以降の消費分に対する補助）、「電気・ガス価格激変緩和対策事業」（2023年2月–2024年6月検針分に対する補助）、「酷暑乗り切り緊急支援」（2024年9月–11月検針分に対する補助）に加え、2025年1月（2025年2月検針分）より再開される電気・ガス料金の負担軽減策（2025年2月–4月検針分に対する補助）を考慮。政府は2025年6月以降、「燃料油価格激変緩和対策事業」による補助額を拡充するとしており、2025年4月–5月は3月分の補助と同等、2025年6月–12月は（4月6日の共同通信の記事等に基づき）1リットルあたり10円を仮定。

  • Multilateral Energy Cost Monitoring (ECM_202504)

    Koji Nomura, Sho Inaba, and Mansaku Yoshida

    Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University, 

    2025.04
    , 

    Database science, Joint

    　View Details

    The PLI (price level index) is estimated through January 2025, RUEC (real unit energy cost) through Q4 2024 (forecast is through Q4 2025), and the EITE (energy-intensive trade-exposed) output index through January 2025.

    PLI/RUEC covers seven countries (Japan, China, South Korea, the U.S., the UK, Germany, and France) and EITE covers four countries (Japan, China, the U.S., and Germany).

  • Monthly GDP Growth (JMGDP_202503)

    Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

    Nomura Lab at Keio Economic Observatory, 

    2025.03
    , 

    Database science, Joint

    　View Details

    Update the estimates until February 2025.

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Awards 【 Display / hide 】

  • The 48th Nikkei Award (Nikkei Keizai-Tosho-Bunka-Sho)

    Koji Nomura, 2005.11, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Measurement of Capital and Productivity

    Type of Award： Award from publisher, newspaper, foundation, etc.

  • Keio Award

    Koji Nomura, 2005.11, Keio Univeristy

    Type of Award： Keio commendation etc.

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Courses Taught 【 Display / hide 】

  • SEMINAR (QC)

    2025

  • SEMINAR (QB)(PAST YEARS)

    2025

  • SEMINAR (QB)

    2025

  • SEMINAR (QA)(PAST YEARS)

    2025

  • SEMINAR (QA)

    2025

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Social Activities 【 Display / hide 】

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Media Coverage 【 Display / hide 】

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Academic Activities 【 Display / hide 】

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Committee Experiences 【 Display / hide 】

  • 2025.04
    -
    2026.03

    Editorial Board Member, "Economic Analysis" Editorial Board, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan

  • 2025.04
    -
    2026.03

    Advisor, Development Bank of Japan, Research Institute of Capital Formation

  • 2025.04
    -
    2026.03

    Visiting Senior Researcher, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)

  • 2025.02
    -
    2026.01

    Advisor, SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute

  • 2024.10
    -
    2025.09

    Chief Expert, APO Productivity Databook 2025, Asian Productivity Organization

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