NOMURA Koji

写真a

Affiliation

Research Centers and Institutes, Keio Economic Observatory (Mita)

Position

Professor

E-mail Address

E-mail address

Related Websites
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Career 【 Display / hide 】

  • 1996.04
    -
    2003.03

    Keio University,, Keio Economic Observatory,, Assistant Professor

  • 2003.04
    -
    2005.03

    Harvard University,, Kennedy School of Government,, CBG fellow

  • 2003.04
    -
    2017.03

    Keio University,, Keio Economic Observatory,, Associate Professor

  • 2005.07
    -
    2008.09

    Cabinet Office, Government of Japan,, ESRI (Economic Social Research Institute),, Visiting Fellow

  • 2006.11
    -
    2007.08

    OECD, STI (Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry),, Economist

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Academic Background 【 Display / hide 】

  • 1989.03

    Hakodate Chubu High School, Hokkaido

    Graduated

  • 1993.03

    Keio University, Faculty of Business and Commerce

    University, Graduated

  • 1995.03

    Keio University, Graduate School of Business and Commerce

    Graduate School, Completed, Master's course

  • 1998.03

    Keio University, Graduate School of Business and Commerce

    Graduate School, Withdrawal after completion of doctoral course requirements, Doctoral course

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Academic Degrees 【 Display / hide 】

  • M.A., Keio University, Coursework, 1995.03

  • Ph.D, Keio University, Dissertation, 2005

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Research Areas 【 Display / hide 】

  • Humanities & Social Sciences / Economic statistics

  • Humanities & Social Sciences / Economic policy

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Research Keywords 【 Display / hide 】

  • Economic Growth, Capital and Productivity

  • Energy and Environment

  • Labor Input and Human Capital

  • Japanese and Asian Economies

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Books 【 Display / hide 】

  • Energy Productivity and Economic Growth: Experiences of the Japanese Industries, 1955–2019

    Koji Nomura, Springer, 2023.01,  Page： 268

    　View Summary

    Energy costs in the economy amount to only a few percent of gross domestic product, but their importance to economic growth is much greater than their apparent number. Energy is used in almost all production and consumption activities, and energy price changes induce significant spillover effects throughout the economic system. More importantly, stable and affordable access to energy is a critical factor in determining the rate of capital accumulation in a domestic economy and, hence, labor productivity growth. The expansion of production per hour worked is achieved by using more and higher quality capital, which requires more energy to operate. This book aims to provide robust observational facts on energy productivity improvement (EPI) and to analyze the mechanisms of EPI achieved in Japan’s economic growth from 1955 to 2019. Linking the productivity account with energy statistics enables us to attempt not only to develop a better indicator of energy productivity but also to evaluate the EPI with other significant changes in the production process, such as capital productivity, labor productivity, and even the overall efficiency measured in terms of total factor productivity. This book is a valuable resource for researchers and policymakers seeking to understand the role of energy throughout the economy and for economic planners seeking to ensure the efficient use of energy now and into the future.

  • Energy Productivity in Japan's Economic Growth: Exploring Possibilities for Balancing Economy and Environment (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura, Keio University Press, 2021.06,  Page： 288

    　View Summary

    拙速なエネルギー環境政策の強化が更なる経済停滞を招く危険を説いた警世の書。日本のエネルギー効率が「環境規制」によってではなく「経済成長」下で改善されてきた事実を示し、２０５０年「脱炭素社会」を見据え、その移行期における国際的に調和したエネルギー環境政策を提言する。

    目次
    第１章　経済成長とエネルギー
    第２章　エネルギー生産性改善の源泉
    第３章　エネルギー価格高騰に対する耐性
    第４章　エネルギー生産性と全体効率
    第５章　間接的な電力輸入
    第６章　日本のエネルギー転換に向けて

  • Measurement of Capital and Productivity in Japan (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura, Keio University Press, 2004.11,  Page： 660

    　View Summary

    わが国の資本形成から資本ストックの蓄積、資本サービスへの変換、資本サービス投入による経済成長への寄与まで、生産と資本、資本と生産を結ぶ整合ある測定を行い、日米比較とともに高度成長期から２０００年までの経済成長を描いた本格的実証分析。

    目次
    第１章　資本の測定
    第２章　資本ストック
    第３章　資本サービス価格
    第４章　資本サービスと経済成長
    補章
    終章　結びとして

  • APO Productivity Databook 2024

    Koji Nomura and Mun S. Ho, Asian Productivity Organization, Keio University Press, 2024.09,  Page： 201

    　View Summary

    This seventeenth edition of the APO Productivity Databook describes the quality of economic growth and productivity by providing comparable accounts across countries with different accounting systems. This is intended to serve as a useful resource for policymakers and researchers. Productivity gains, which enable an economy to produce more with the same inputs or to achieve the same output with fewer inputs, are crucial for ensuring sustainable economic growth in the long run. Improving national productivity performance is a key public policy objective, which requires reliable monitoring of past performance. This edition covers more than half a century of Asian economic development, from 1970 to 2022. Additionally, this edition includes projections for economic growth and labor productivity improvements up to 2035. Baseline economic growth and productivity indicators are calculated for 31 Asian economies, representing the 21 Asian Productivity Organization member economies (APO21) and the ten non-member economies in Asia.1 The APO21 consists of Bangladesh, Cambodia, the Republic of China (ROC), Fiji, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, the Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran), Japan, the Republic of Korea (Korea), the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Malaysia, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkiye, and Vietnam. The ten non-member economies in Asia are the Kingdom of Bhutan (Bhutan), Brunei Darussalam (Brunei), the People’s Republic of China (China), Myanmar, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), consisting of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In addition, Australia, the European Union (EU), France, Italy, Germany, New Zealand, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US) are included as reference economies.

  • Energy Dominance: Energy Policy for a Strong and Prosperous Japan (in Japanese)

    Taishi Sugiyama, Koji Nomura, Yoshioaki Oka, Tomohiko Okano, Koko Kato, Naoki Toda, Haruhisa Nakazawa, Tsuruhiko Nambu, Koji Hirai, Satoshi Matsuda, Ryuzo Yamamoto, Masami Kojima, Tetsuo Sawada, Hiroshi Tanaka, Yoshihiro Muronaka, Masayuki Yamaguchi, and Tadashi Watanabe, 2024.06,  Page： 177

    　View Summary

    「非政府の有志による第7次エネルギー基本計画」（以下、本計画）では、安全保障と経済成長を重視したエネルギー政策として、「エネルギードミナンス（優勢）」を提唱する。エネルギードミナンスとは、米国共和党で用いられてきた概念である。それはすなわち、豊富で、安定し、安価なエネルギーを供給することを指す。それによって、日本が経済発展をし、防衛力を高め、自由、民主といった普遍的価値を守り発展させることが可能になる。 エネルギードミナンスを確立するために、我々は以下の11項目にわたる提言をする。

    01. 光熱費を低減する。電気料金は東日本大震災前の水準を数値目標とする。エネルギーへの税や賦課金等は撤廃ないし削減する。
    02. 原子力を最大限活用する。全電源に占める比率50％を長期的な数値目標とする。
    03. 化石燃料の安定利用をCO2規制で阻害しない。
    04. 太陽光発電の大量導入を停止する。
    05. 拙速なEV推進により日本の自動車産業振興を妨げない。
    06. 再エネなどの化石燃料代替技術は、性急な導入拡大をせず、コスト低減を優先する。
    07. 過剰な省エネ規制を廃止する。
    08. 電気事業制度を垂直統合型に戻す。
    09. エネルギーの備蓄およびインフラ防衛を強化する。
    10. CO2排出総量の目標を置かず、部門別の排出量の割当てをしない。
    11. パリ協定を代替するエネルギードミナンス協定を構築する。

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Papers 【 Display / hide 】

  • "Recent Steel Production Decline in Japan: The Interactive Effects of Carbon Neutrality Policy and Production Relocation" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    Economic Statistics Research (Keizai Sangyo Toukei Kyokai)  52 ( Ⅲ ) 1 - 22 2024.12

    Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

    　View Summary

    世界的な脱炭素政策の本格的な加速の兆しが見え始めた2010年代後半から、日本およびドイツの鉄鋼生産はほぼ直線的に減退している。一般に、その要因として内需低迷が指摘されるが、中間財を生産する鉄鋼業において、内需の変化をもたらす最終需要の源泉を把握することは容易ではない。本稿は、近年の鉄鋼生産減退の動向を観察するとともに、戦後日本経済における鉄鋼の直接輸出入および下流製品を通じた間接輸出入の構造変化を測定し、内需の構造を分析する。長期にわたる産業連関分析によれば、1980年代後半以降、日本の鉄鋼の間接輸出は直接輸出を上回るようになったことが示される。また、鉄鋼の実効輸入依存度（直接輸入と間接輸入の合計）は1970年代後半以降一貫して上昇しており、1990年頃までは直接輸入の拡大、1990年代後半以降は間接輸入の拡大が主要因となっている。今後、脱炭素政策の加速により自動車や機械などの下流製品の生産移転がさらに進めば、鉄鋼の間接輸出の縮小と間接輸入の拡大を通じ、さらなる鉄鋼生産の減退をもたらす空洞化の連鎖が生じる可能性がある。間接貿易を考慮しなければ、生産減退は単なる内需低迷の結果として解釈されかねない。

  • "Development of Industry-Level Productivity Account in Bhutan, 1990–2022"

    Koji Nomura

    (United Nations Development Programme)   2024.09

    Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.), Single Work

    　View Summary

    This study constructs an industry-level productivity account for Bhutan's economy from 1990 to 2022, focusing on the impacts of hydropower development on economic growth and resource allocation efficiency. The analysis reveals that while hydropower has been the primary driver of Bhutan's economic growth, its contribution declined significantly post-democratization. Despite maintaining the region's highest capital investment, the economy shows a striking dichotomy between high labor productivity and low capital productivity, indicating fundamental limitations in Bhutan's hydropower-led development strategy.

  • "Estimating Flexible Functional Forms using Macroeconomic Data"

    W. Erwin Diewert, Koji Nomura, and Chihiro Shimizu

    TCER Working Paper Series (Tokyo Center for Economic Research)   ( E-206 )  2024.04

    Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

    　View Summary

    The paper estimates a flexible functional form for a joint cost function using US aggregate data for the years 1970-2022. There are four outputs (consumption, government, investment and exports) and six inputs (imports, labour, machinery and equipment services, structure services, other capital services and land services). Curvature conditions on the joint cost function are imposed without destroying the flexibility of the functional form. Various elasticities of supply and demand are estimated along with technical progress bias terms for each input. When using aggregate time series data based on the System of National Accounts, the paper shows that it is probably better to estimate a joint cost function rather than a gross output function or a GDP function. The paper also shows that assuming that an aggregate production function has constant elasticities of substitution is not appropriate for the US. Finally, the importance of including land as an aggregate input is stressed.

  • "Post-Pandemic Surges of Real Unit Energy Costs in Eight Industrialized Countries"

    Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

    RCGW Discussion Paper (Research Center on Global Warming, Develpment Bank of Japan)   ( 70 )  2024.03

    Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work, Lead author, Last author, Corresponding author

    　View Summary

    This paper develops a high-frequency indicator to assess real price and cost differentials for energy use across eight industrialized countries: China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and the U.S. The study assesses the overall energy cost burden using the real price level index (PLI) and the real unit energy cost (RUEC). The real PLI, unaffected by exchange rate fluctuations, provides a stable measure of real energy price differentials, while the RUEC indicates the challenges facing the energy transition. An analysis of RUEC trends from the first quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2023 highlights a substantial post-pandemic surge, particularly evident in Germany and Italy, where levels spiked by about 80% compared to pre-pandemic periods. This surge in Germany has coincided with a 20% decline in output within energy-intensive manufacturing by the end of 2023. Asian countries, on the other hand, managed to curb the post-pandemic RUEC surge to less than half of this level through energy subsidies and government interventions. Nonetheless, the higher RUEC levels in China and South Korea underscore the formidable challenges they encounter in propelling their energy transition initiatives forward. In Japan, about half of the limitations on the RUEC surge are attributed to reduced energy consumption resulting from the hollowing out of its industrial sector. Without a fundamental reevaluation of energy policies to ensure economic growth, the current path of the energy transition remains precarious.

  • "Improving the SNA: Alternative Measures of Output, Input, Income, and Productivity"

    W. Erwin Diewert, Koji Nomura, and Chihiro Shimizu

    Review of Income and Wealth  70 ( 4 ) 1142 - 1189 2024.01

    Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted,  ISSN  00346586

    　View Summary

    The current System of National Accounts (SNA) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) concept does not measure the income generated by the production sector since it includes depreciation and excludes capital gains and losses on assets used in the production sector. The paper suggests an accounting framework that measures the income generated by the production sector of an economy and implements this measure using the Augmented Productivity Database (APDB) developed by Asian Productivity Organization and Keio University for China over the years 1970–2020. Real gross and real net income generated by the Chinese production sector are decomposed into explanatory factors including TFP growth using the framework suggested by Jorgenson and Diewert and Morrison. TFP growth is further decomposed into technical progress and inefficiency components using the nonparametric approach developed by Diewert and Fox. The APDB has estimates for the price and quantity of agricultural, industrial, commercial, and residential land used in China. The paper argues that changes in land use should be treated in the same manner as inventory change and added to the alternative output measures. It turns out that Jorgensonian user costs for land are frequently negative. The problems associated with negative user costs are discussed in the paper.

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Papers, etc., Registered in KOARA 【 Display / hide 】

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Reviews, Commentaries, etc. 【 Display / hide 】

  • ”Energy Price Level Index - Crisis Level due to Excessive Carbon Neutral Policy” (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    Energy Policy Report (Energy Forum Inc.)   2025.02

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

  • "Fruits Without Roots" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun)   2025.02

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

  • "Provisional Framework of Bhutan Sectoral Integration and Transformation Economic Model"

    Koji Nomura

    (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific)   2024.12

    Internal/External technical report, pre-print, etc., Single Work

  • "Ghosts of Pseudoscience" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun)   2024.12

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

  • "Energy and Economy: Bridging Engineering Solutions and Social Issues" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    AICE Seminar Series (The Research association of Automotive Internal Combustion Engines)   2024.11

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

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Presentations 【 Display / hide 】

  • "Energy and Economy - Economic and Social Insights Engineers Should Have" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    AICE講演会, 

    2025.01
    , 

    Public lecture, seminar, tutorial, course, or other speech, AICE

  • "The Impact of GX Promotion on Domestic Industry: Similarities and Differences between the Japanese and German Economies" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    Energy System Research Group, 

    2025.01
    , 

    Oral presentation (general), APIR

  • "Recent Steel Production Decline in Japan" (in Japanese)

    Koji Nomura

    RITE ALPS IV Economic Analysis Working Group, 

    2024.12
    , 

    Oral presentation (general), RITE

  • Overview of Data Issues and Challenges for Developing Bhutan's Productivity Account

    Koji Nomura

    Workshop on Productivity Account for Bhutan (Thimphu, Bhutan) , 

    2024.10
    , 

    Public lecture, seminar, tutorial, course, or other speech, Ministry of Finance, Royal Government of Bhutan

  • Key Findings and Concepts of Bhutan's Productivity Account

    Koji Nomura

    Workshop on Productivity Account for Bhutan (Thimphu, Bhutan) , 

    2024.10
    , 

    Public lecture, seminar, tutorial, course, or other speech, Ministry of Finance, Royal Government of Bhutan

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Works 【 Display / hide 】

  • Development of APO Productivity Database 2025

    Koji Nomura, Sho Inaba, and Shiori Nakayama

    Asian Productivity Organization and Keio Economic Observatory, 

    2024.11
    -
    2025.06
    , 

    Database science, Joint

    　View Details

    APO Productivity Databook 2025（2025年9月出版）において利用。測定期間は1970–2023年。

    生産性統計構築の対象国は、アジア25カ国（バングラデシュ、カンボジア、中華人民共和国、中華民国、フィジー、香港、インド、インドネシア、イラン・イスラム共和国、日本、大韓民国、ラオス人民民主共和国、マレーシア、モンゴル、ミャンマーネパール、パキスタン、フィリピン、シンガポール、スリランカ、タイ、トルコ、ブータン、ブルネイ、ベトナム）と米国。

  • Development of Asia QALI Database 2025

    Koji Nomura, Sho Inaba, and Shiori Nakayama

    Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University, 

    2024.11
    -
    2025.06
    , 

    Database science, Joint

    　View Details

    APO Productivity Databook 2025（2025年9月出版）において利用。測定期間は1970–2023年。


    労働投入データベース構築の対象国は、アジア25カ国（バングラデシュ、カンボジア、中華人民共和国、中華民国、フィジー、香港、インド、インドネシア、イラン・イスラム共和国、日本、大韓民国、ラオス人民民主共和国、マレーシア、モンゴル、ミャンマーネパール、パキスタン、フィリピン、シンガポール、スリランカ、タイ、トルコ、ブータン、ブルネイ、ベトナム）と米国。

  • Energy Cost Monitoring for Japan (ECM_JPN_202501)

    Koji Nomura, Sho Inaba, and Mansaku Yoshida

    Nomura Lab at Keio Economic Observatory, 

    2025.02
    , 

    Database science, Joint

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    ECM_JPN_202501は、ECM推計値の2024年12月までの更新。中国では、国家統計局「居民消费价格指数（Consumer Price Indices）」の公開データの費目分類の細分化にともない、家計のエネルギー価格指数の対応関係を見直した。

  • Multilateral Energy Cost Monitoring (ECM_202501)

    Koji Nomura, Sho Inaba, and Mansaku Yoshida

    Nomura Lab at Keio Economic Observatory, 

    2025.02
    , 

    Database science, Joint

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    The PLI (price level index) is estimated through October 2024, RUEC (real unit energy cost) through Q3 2024 (forecast is through Q2 2025), and the EITE (energy-intensive trade-exposed) output index through November 2024.

    PLI/RUEC covers seven countries (Japan, China, South Korea, the U.S., the UK, Germany, and France) and EITE covers four countries (Japan, China, the U.S., and Germany).

  • Monthly GDP Growth (JMGDP_202501)

    Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

    Nomura Lab at Keio Economic Observatory, 

    2025.01
    , 

    Database science, Joint

    　View Details

    Update the estimates until December 2024.

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Awards 【 Display / hide 】

  • The 48th Nikkei Award (Nikkei Keizai-Tosho-Bunka-Sho)

    Koji Nomura, 2005.11, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Measurement of Capital and Productivity

    Type of Award： Award from publisher, newspaper, foundation, etc.

  • Keio Award

    Koji Nomura, 2005.11, Keio Univeristy

    Type of Award： Keio commendation etc.

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Courses Taught 【 Display / hide 】

  • THEORY OF INDEX NUMBERS

    2024

  • SEMINAR: ECONOMETRICS

    2024

  • SEMINAR (QD)

    2024

  • SEMINAR (QC)

    2024

  • SEMINAR (QB)(PAST YEARS)

    2024

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Social Activities 【 Display / hide 】

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Media Coverage 【 Display / hide 】

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Academic Activities 【 Display / hide 】

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Committee Experiences 【 Display / hide 】

  • 2024.09
    -
    2024.12

    Consultant, UNESCAP (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific)

  • 2024.07
    -
    2025.03

    Committee member, Committee on Energy System Research, APIR (Asia Pacific Institute of Reseach)

  • 2024.07
    -
    2026.03

    Chief Examiner, WG on Steel Carbon Neutrality and Economic Growth Assessment, Japan Iron and Steel Institute

  • 2024.06
    -
    2025.03

    Committee Member, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Technical Committee for International Strategy against Global Warming

  • 2024.06
    -
    2025.03

    Chief, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Economic Analysis Working Group

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