KEIO RESEARCHERS INFORMATION SYSTEM

Career 【 Display / hide 】

Career 【 Display / hide 】

• 1996.04

  -

  2003.03

  Keio University,, Keio Economic Observatory,, Assistant Professor

• 2003.04

  -

  2005.03

  Harvard University,, Kennedy School of Government,, CBG fellow

• 2003.04

  -

  2017.03

  Keio University,, Keio Economic Observatory,, Associate Professor

• 2005.07

  -

  2008.09

  Cabinet Office, Government of Japan,, ESRI (Economic Social Research Institute),, Visiting Fellow

• 2006.11

  -

  2007.08

  OECD, STI (Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry),, Economist

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Academic Background 【 Display / hide 】

Academic Background 【 Display / hide 】

• 1989.03

  Hakodate Chubu High School, Hokkaido

  Graduated

• 1993.03

  Keio University, Faculty of Business and Commerce

  University, Graduated

• 1995.03

  Keio University, Graduate School of Business and Commerce

  Graduate School, Completed, Master's course

• 1998.03

  Keio University, Graduate School of Business and Commerce

  Graduate School, Withdrawal after completion of doctoral course requirements, Doctoral course

Academic Degrees 【 Display / hide 】

Academic Degrees 【 Display / hide 】

• M.A., Keio University, Coursework, 1995.03

• Ph.D, Keio University, Dissertation, 2005

Research Areas 【 Display / hide 】

Research Areas 【 Display / hide 】

• Humanities & Social Sciences / Economic statistics

• Humanities & Social Sciences / Economic policy

Research Keywords 【 Display / hide 】

Research Keywords 【 Display / hide 】

• Economic Growth, Capital and Productivity

• Energy and Environment

• Labor Input and Human Capital

• Japanese and Asian Economies

Books 【 Display / hide 】

Books 【 Display / hide 】

• APO Productivity Databook 2025

  Koji Nomura and Mun S. Ho, Asian Productivity Organization, Keio University Press, 2025.09,  Page： 219

  　View Summary

  The 18th edition of the APO Productivity Databook provides standardized productivity and growth comparisons across 33 Asian economies and several global reference countries. Spanning more than five decades (1970–2023), it evaluates Asia’s structural transformation, post-COVID-19 recovery, and projections through 2035. Productivity enhancement is emphasized as the foundation of sustainable long-term growth, either by increasing output with given inputs or by maintaining output while reducing resource use. Enhancing national productivity metrics remains a fundamental policy imperative. To support this goal, the Databook systematically evaluates historical performance and prospects based on harmonized data and robust methodologies. It establishes baseline indicators of economic growth and productivity across 33 Asian economies, including the 21 APO members and 12 non-member Asian countries. The APO21 consists of Bangladesh, Cambodia, the Republic of China (ROC), Fiji, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, the Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran), Japan, the Republic of Korea (Korea), the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Malaysia, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkiye, and Vietnam. The twelve non-member economies in Asia are Afghanistan, the Kingdom of Bhutan (Bhutan), Brunei Darussalam (Brunei), the People’s Republic of China (China), the Maldives, Myanmar, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), consisting of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Afghanistan and the Maldives are being incorporated for the first time in the 2025 edition. In addition, Australia, the European Union (EU), France, Italy, Germany, New Zealand, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US) are included as reference economies.

  • Access to Document (DOI)

• Hydropower-Led Economic Growth in Bhutan: Development of Industry-Level Productivity Account, 1990–2022

  Koji Nomura, Contemporary South Asian Studies, Springer, 2025.05,  Page： 259

  　View Summary

  This book provides a comprehensive analysis of Bhutan’s economic growth and productivity dynamics from 1990 to 2022, with a special focus on hydropower development. Through the construction of detailed industry-level productivity accounts, the study addresses significant data gaps in Bhutan’s national accounts, measuring outputs and inputs across various sectors and developing quality-adjusted labor and capital input series. The analysis reveals the complexities of Bhutan’s hydropower-led growth strategy: while the sector has driven substantial economic growth, its contribution to overall productivity improvement has been limited. The electricity sector shows gains in labor productivity but declining capital productivity, resulting in stagnant Total Factor Productivity (TFP). The study also examines productivity trends in non-electricity sectors and addresses potential “Dutch disease” effects on manufacturing and agricultural competitiveness. International comparisons place Bhutan’s productivity performance in a regional context, revealing significant gaps in productivity performance, particularly when compared to India, Bhutan’s largest trading partner and a regional economic benchmark. This comparative analysis informs policy recommendations for achieving more balanced and sustainable economic growth. The findings are particularly relevant for Bhutan’s Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (2024–2029), which emphasizes productivity improvements across all economic sectors. The book serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, economists, and researchers interested in development economics, particularly those focused on the unique challenges faced by small, landlocked nations pursuing sustainable economic development.

  • Access to Document (DOI)

• Energy Productivity and Economic Growth: Experiences of the Japanese Industries, 1955–2019

  Koji Nomura, Springer, 2023.01,  Page： 268

  　View Summary

  Energy costs in the economy amount to only a few percent of gross domestic product, but their importance to economic growth is much greater than their apparent number. Energy is used in almost all production and consumption activities, and energy price changes induce significant spillover effects throughout the economic system. More importantly, stable and affordable access to energy is a critical factor in determining the rate of capital accumulation in a domestic economy and, hence, labor productivity growth. The expansion of production per hour worked is achieved by using more and higher quality capital, which requires more energy to operate. This book aims to provide robust observational facts on energy productivity improvement (EPI) and to analyze the mechanisms of EPI achieved in Japan’s economic growth from 1955 to 2019. Linking the productivity account with energy statistics enables us to attempt not only to develop a better indicator of energy productivity but also to evaluate the EPI with other significant changes in the production process, such as capital productivity, labor productivity, and even the overall efficiency measured in terms of total factor productivity. This book is a valuable resource for researchers and policymakers seeking to understand the role of energy throughout the economy and for economic planners seeking to ensure the efficient use of energy now and into the future.

  • Access to Document (DOI)

• Energy Productivity in Japan's Economic Growth: Exploring Possibilities for Balancing Economy and Environment (in Japanese)

  Koji Nomura, Keio University Press, 2021.06,  Page： 288

  　View Summary

  This book reexamines the sources of Japan’s long-term economic stagnation from the perspectives of energy constraints and productivity. Although energy appears as a relatively small cost component in GDP, it constitutes a fundamental input underpinning capital utilization and labor productivity. Its price level and supply structure therefore exert a substantial influence on medium- to long-term economic growth.
  
  Using long-term data covering the period since 1885 at the macro level and since 1955 at the industry level, the book analyzes the dynamics of energy productivity (EPI). It develops a productivity accounting framework that integrates energy quality, industrial structure, and technological change. In addition, by employing indicators such as the real unit energy cost (RUEC) and the effective import dependency of electricity (EID), the book examines Japan’s resilience to energy price changes and its structural vulnerabilities in an international comparative context.
  
  The empirical findings suggest that recent energy and environmental policies in Japan, rather than promoting growth through improvements in energy productivity, may have constrained economic growth by suppressing capital accumulation and slowing total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The book concludes by redefining the conditions under which economic growth and environmental policy can be reconciled, and provides a foundation for designing effective energy policies.

• Measurement of Capital and Productivity in Japan (in Japanese)

  Koji Nomura, Keio University Press, 2004.11,  Page： 660

  　View Summary

  This book aims to systematically construct a measurement framework for capital stock and capital services in order to reexamine the relationship between capital accumulation and productivity in the Japanese economy. In conventional national accounts, capital measurement has primarily been based on asset classifications, without a clear linkage to production activities. The book develops a time-series fixed capital stock matrix that integrates production and capital accumulation, providing a consistent framework to capture capital formation and production activities. Based on this framework, depreciation rates are estimated by asset type—including residential structures, transportation equipment, and social infrastructure—using methods such as multi-benchmark approaches and evidence from used-asset markets. These estimates are used to construct consistent long-term time series. In addition, the book formulates the price of capital services by explicitly incorporating institutional factors, including Japan’s asset taxation and income taxation systems. This framework enables a unified treatment of the process from production to capital accumulation and to the input of capital services, allowing for a comprehensive measurement of capital input that includes land and inventories. On this basis, the book empirically analyzes the relationships among capital input, capital productivity, and total factor productivity (TFP). In particular, it demonstrates that the inclusion or exclusion of land leads to systematic differences in the measured rates of return to capital, capital input, and TFP growth. The results confirm that the measurement of capital input and the treatment of institutional factors have substantial effects on productivity assessment, highlighting the importance of improving capital measurement in growth accounting. By integrating production, accumulation, and capital service input, the book provides an empirical foundation for capital measurement and contributes to the methodological basis of long-term economic growth analysis.

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Papers 【 Display / hide 】

Papers 【 Display / hide 】

• "Declining Energy Cost Competitiveness in Japan and Europe — A Real PLI–Based Comparison of Nine Major Economies and Threshold Effects on EITE Output" (in Japanese)

  Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

  DBJ Discussion Paper Series (Research Institute of Capital Formation, Development Bank of Japan)   ( 2502 ) 1 - 33 2026.03

  Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

  　View Summary

  This paper examines international energy cost competitiveness using real price conditions rather than exchange-rate-based nominal comparisons. Focusing on nine major economies—Japan, China, Korea, India, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and the U.S.—we construct a Real Price Level Index for energy (Real PLI) based on value-added prices using the ECM Database and extend the measurement through the fourth quarter of 2025. The results indicate that, in the post-pandemic period, real energy price differentials have persistently widened in Japan, Korea, and several European economies relative to the U.S. and to China and India. We further investigate the relationship between Real PLI and the output of energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) industries. Panel threshold regressions reveal significant nonlinear effects: once Real PLI exceeds estimated critical levels, EITE production declines sharply. In contrast, no statistically significant threshold effect is detected for China and India. The paper also shows that recent improvements in Gross Energy Productivity (GEP) and the apparent stabilization of Real Unit Energy Costs (RUEC) in advanced economies partly reflect structural shifts—specifically, the relative contraction of EITE sectors—rather than purely technological efficiency gains. While such structural adjustment may reduce macroeconomic sensitivity to energy price shocks, it simultaneously implies declining domestic basic-material production capacity and greater external dependence. These findings suggest that persistently adverse real energy price conditions act as structural constraints on industrial location and investment decisions.

• "How Does the Social Implementation of Technological Innovation Transform the Japanese Economy?—Visualizing Structural Change with the High-Resolution Economic Model BIP" (in Japanese)

  Koji Nomura

  SBI Research Review (SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute)  9   27 - 49 2026.02

  Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

  　View Summary

  This paper develops a high-resolution economic model, BIP, designed to evaluate the macroeconomic impacts of the social implementation of technological innovation in Japan. The BIP framework visualizes how technological innovations propagate across economic activities through structural transformation and aims to capture multiple dimensions of the economy—production, employment, income distribution, and energy consumption—within a consistent general equilibrium framework. Two scenarios are examined. The first is a business-as-usual (BaU) trajectory that extends the stagnation observed in the Japanese economy, while the second is a technology and social implementation (TSI) scenario in which technological innovations are widely adopted across society. The analysis traces the divergence between these scenarios toward 2040. Under the TSI scenario, the service sector expands significantly; however, the core growth mechanism remains the reconstruction of an industrial foundation centered on manufacturing. Relative to the BaU baseline, nominal value added increases by ¥257 trillion, of which ¥132 trillion is attributable to productivity improvements and market expansion associated with the adoption of artificial intelligence. These productivity gains simultaneously enable shorter working hours and rising wages, while also promoting domestic capital accumulation supported by affordable and stable electricity supply. The results suggest that technological innovation of this kind could fundamentally alter the long-term growth trajectory of the Japanese economy.

• "Measuring Real Energy Price Gaps: The Real PLI Framework for Competitiveness Monitoring"

  Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

  Sustainability 18 ( 1 )  2026.01

  Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Corresponding author, Accepted

  　View Summary

  Global energy markets have experienced persistent dispersion in real energy prices, creating structural competitiveness pressures that standard indicators often fail to capture in real time. These pressures have intensified as energy-intensive sectors face asymmetric exposure across advanced and emerging economies. This study addresses two critical gaps in international energy cost competitiveness. The first is a frequency gap: conventional indicators such as the Real Unit Energy Cost (RUEC) are typically published with delays of 2–5 years, limiting their usefulness for timely policy evalua-tion. Here, both RUEC and the Real Price Level Index for energy (Real PLI)—the ratio of the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for energy to that for GDP—are measured with only a 2–3-month lag for nine countries—four in Asia, four in Europe, and the U.S. The second is a competitiveness gap that calls for policy responses. Real PLIs indicate that the energy price disadvantages of Japan, Korea, France, Germany, Italy, and the UK have widened from 1.76–2.91 times the U.S. level before the pandemic to 2.14–3.28 times by Q3 2025, with the gaps relative to China and India also widening. Once coun-try-specific thresholds are exceeded, output in energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) industries tends to contract disproportionately. These findings highlight that sustainable transitions require not only internationally differentiated burden-sharing but also structural reforms to avoid persistent widening of energy price gaps. The Real PLI framework provides a timely indicator of competitiveness and an early-warning tool, signaling when growing asymmetries may undermine policy feasibility. Policy implications include the need to monitor real energy price dispersion as a core source of competitiveness risk, to strengthen structural measures that stabilize marginal en-ergy costs, and to design transition pathways that account for heterogeneous adjust-ment pressures across countries.

  • Access to Document (DOI)

• "Measuring Real Energy Price Gaps: The Real PLI Framework for Competitiveness Monitoring"

  Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

  Preprints.org  2025.11

  Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.), Joint Work, Corresponding author

  　View Summary

  This study addresses two critical gaps in international energy cost competitiveness. The first is a frequency gap: conventional indicators such as the Real Unit Energy Cost (RUEC) are typically published with delays of 2–5 years, limiting their usefulness for timely policy evaluation. Here, both RUEC and the Real Price Level Index for energy (Real PLI)—the ratio of the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for energy to that for GDP—are measured with only a 2–3 month lag for nine countries—four in Asia, four in Europe, and the U.S. The second is a competitiveness gap that calls for policy re-sponses. Real PLIs indicate that the energy price disadvantages of Japan, Korea, France, Germany, Italy, and the UK have widened from about 1.8–2.9 times the U.S. level before the pandemic to 2.2–3.3 times by Q2 2025, with gaps also increasing rela-tive to China and India. Once country-specific thresholds are exceeded, output in en-ergy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) industries tends to contract disproportion-ately. These findings highlight that sustainable transitions require not only interna-tionally differentiated burden-sharing but also structural reforms to avoid persistent widening of energy price gaps. The Real PLI framework offers a timely competitiveness indicator and early-warning tool, signaling when growing asymmetries may under-mine policy feasibility.

  • Access to Document (DOI)

• "Productivity Dynamics in the Maldives: A First Outlook Based on the Maldivian Productivity Accounts, 1970–2023, with Comparisons to SAARC and Fiji"

  Koji Nomura

  (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific)   2025.10

  Research paper (other academic), Single Work

  　View Summary

  This report presents the first comprehensive productivity analysis for the Maldives based on the newly developed Maldivian Productivity Accounts, covering the period 1970–2023 and including cross-country comparisons with SAARC members and Fiji. The results show that sustained economic growth of 5–7% per year from 1970 to 2019 was supported by a nearly thirtyfold expansion of capital input and a twentyfold increase in labor input, including migrant workers. However, improvements in TFP have remained close to zero or even negative. The capital–output ratio reached 5.3 in 2023—the highest in the SAARC region—reflecting low investment efficiency and possible overaccumulation. Transitioning from quantity-driven to efficiency-based growth is essential for the Maldives to achieve sustainable productivity and long-term economic resilience.

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Papers, etc., Registered in KOARA 【 Display / hide 】

Papers, etc., Registered in KOARA 【 Display / hide 】

• Energy price surge and widening real price differentials in the post-pandemic era : a comparative analysis of seven major countries

  Nomura, Koji

  KEO discussion paper (Keio Economic Observatory Sangyo Kenkyujo)   ( 185 )  2025.03

• Indirect steel trade in the postwar Japanese economy

  Nomura, Koji

  KEO discussion paper (Keio Economic Observatory Sangyo Kenkyujo)   ( 184 )  2025.02

• Measuring public civil engineering output prices based on bidding data in Japan, 1989–2021

  Nomura, Koji

  KEO discussion paper (Keio Economic Observatory Sangyo Kenkyujo)   ( 173 )  2022.10

• Measurement of labor shares and quality-adjusted labor inputs in Vietnam, 1970–2018

  Nomura, Kōji

  KEO discussion paper (Keio Economic Observatory Sangyo Kenkyujo)   ( 156 )  2020.12

• Benchmark 2011 integrated estimates of the Japan-U.S. price level index for industry outputs

  Nomura, Koji

  KEO discussion paper (Keio Economic Observatory Sangyo Kenkyujo)   ( 144 )  2018.10

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Reviews, Commentaries, etc. 【 Display / hide 】

Reviews, Commentaries, etc. 【 Display / hide 】

• "Can you believe the price?" (in Japanese)

  Koji Nomura

  Wave (Denki Shimbun) (The Denki Shimbun)   2026.04

  Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media), Single Work

• "Measuring Labor Share in Economies without COE: A Bottom-Up Approach in Vietnam"

  Koji Nomura

  Productivity Research Notes (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University)   ( 2604 )  2026.03

  Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

  　View Summary

  Productivity Research Notes (PRN Series), No. 2604.
  This note develops a bottom-up approach to measuring labor share in economies where compensation of employees (COE) is not available in national accounts, using Vietnam as a case study. By integrating micro-level data on wages, employment, and hours worked, it constructs consistent time-series estimates of labor compensation and factor income shares. The results show that the derived labor share aligns with available benchmark aggregates while remaining conceptually distinct from mixed income measures. The analysis further demonstrates that uncertainty in labor share measurement translates directly into substantial variation in total factor productivity (TFP) estimates, underscoring the importance of reliable labor compensation data for growth accounting in developing economies.

  PRN2604

  • Access to Document (DOI)

• "Beyond Energy Prices: Strait Closure Risk in Asian Supply Chains, with Evidence from Energy Productivity"

  Koji Nomura

  Productivity Research Notes (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University)   ( 2603 )  2026.03

  Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

  　View Summary

  Productivity Research Notes (PRN Series), No. 2603.
  This note examines the economic implications of a potential Strait of Hormuz closure, emphasizing that the primary risk extends beyond energy price increases to the disruption of Asian supply chains. As global production networks deepen, energy shocks propagate through intermediate goods trade, disrupting downstream manufacturing before price effects become binding. Using cross-country evidence on energy productivity, the note highlights structural differences in vulnerability across Asian economies. It also revisits the role of strategic reserves, arguing that they function as insurance against physical supply disruption rather than as tools for price stabilization. The analysis suggests that policy frameworks may underestimate supply chain transmission risks and over-rely on reserves for managing price pressures.

  PRN2603

  • Access to Document (DOI)

• "Can AI Revive Japan's Productivity?: Technology Implementation Scenario to 2040"

  Koji Nomura

  Productivity Research Notes (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University)   ( 2602 )  2026.03

  Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

  　View Summary

  Productivity Research Notes (PRN Series), No. 2602.
  This note examines the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on Japan’s productivity under a technology implementation scenario to 2040. Using a growth accounting and general equilibrium framework, it evaluates how the diffusion of AI-related technologies across sectors—together with complementary investment, institutional reform, and stable electricity supply—affects total factor productivity (TFP) and economic growth. The results suggest that productivity gains arise from the combined implementation of multiple technologies rather than a single innovation, with manufacturing playing a central role in driving economy-wide efficiency improvements.

  PRN2602

  • Access to Document (DOI)

• "Reshaping Asia’s Economic Landscape: PPP Revisions and Level Comparisons"

  Koji Nomura and Mun S. Ho

  Productivity Research Notes (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University)   ( 2601 )  2026.03

  Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

  　View Summary

  Productivity Research Notes (PRN Series), No. 2601.
  
  This note examines revisions in purchasing power parity (PPP) estimates based on ICP benchmark rounds (2005–2021) and their implications for cross-country level comparisons in Asia. It highlights the sensitivity of income rankings and relative price levels to benchmark revisions.

  PRN2601

  • Access to Document (DOI)

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Presentations 【 Display / hide 】

Presentations 【 Display / hide 】

• "How Will Technological Implementation Transform Economic Structures?—Visualization Using BIP and Future Visions for BIP" (in Japanese)

  Koji Nomura

  [Domestic presentation]  "Reseach on Japanese Economy in 2040", 

  2026.03

  , 

  Oral presentation (general), SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute

• "Declining Energy Cost Competitiveness in Japan and Europe" (in Japanese)

  Koji Nomura

  [Domestic presentation]  RITE ALPS IV Economic Analysis Working Group, 

  2026.03

  , 

  Oral presentation (general), RITE

  　View Summary

  This report examines the international comparison of energy cost competitiveness, emphasizing the importance of evaluating energy prices using a real price level index based on value-added prices (Real PLI) rather than nominal price differences that depend on exchange rates. Using data for nine economies—Japan, China, Korea, India, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, and the United States—measured through the fourth quarter of 2025, the analysis confirms that since the post-pandemic period the real energy price gap faced by Japan, Korea, and European economies relative to the United States, China, and India has structurally widened and become increasingly persistent. Japan’s Real PLI reaches 2.08 times that of the United States, while Germany’s reaches 2.73 times.
  
  The study further estimates a threshold effect whereby production in energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) industries declines nonlinearly once the energy price gap exceeds a certain critical level. The recent improvement in measured energy productivity observed in advanced economies therefore reflects not only gains in technical efficiency but also significant structural change associated with the hollowing out of EITE industries. This dynamic implies the emergence of new risks for economic security in energy-dependent industrial economies.

• "How Does the Social Implementation of Technological Innovation Transform the Japanese Economy? —Visualizing Structural Change with the High-Resolution Economic Model BIP?" (in Japanese)

  Koji Nomura

  [Domestic presentation]  RITE ALPS IV , 

  2026.01

  , 

  Oral presentation (general), RITE

• "Economic Growth, Electricity Consumption, and CO2 Emissions Accompanying the Social Implementation of Technological Innovation: An Evaluation Using the High-Resolution Economic Model BIP" (in Japanese)

  Koji Nomura

  [Domestic presentation]  RITE ALPS IV Economic Analysis Working Group, 

  2025.12

  , 

  Oral presentation (general), RITE

• "Social Implementation of Technological Innovation in the 2040 Economy and Society: An Evaluation Using the High-Resolution Economic Model BIP" (in Japanese)

  Koji Nomura

  [Domestic presentation]  "Reseach on Japanese Economy in 2040", 

  2025.12

  , 

  Oral presentation (general), SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute

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Works 【 Display / hide 】

Works 【 Display / hide 】

• APO Productivity Database (APO-PDB) 2026

  Koji Nomura, Sho Inaba, and Shiori Nakayama

  Asian Productivity Organization and Keio Economic Observatory, 

  2025.10

  -

  2026.06

  , 

  Database science, Joint

  　View Details

  The APO Productivity Database (APO-PDB) is a macro-level productivity account covering mainly Asian economies, incorporating changes in labor composition and capital inputs including land, inventories, and natural resources. It traces economic growth across Asia from 1970 to the most recent year — spanning more than half a century — constructed based on internationally harmonized SNA concepts.
  
  The Asia Quality-adjusted Labor Input Database (AQALI) 2026 and the Asia Natural Resources Database (ANRD) 2026 will be utilized in the APO-PDB2026, scheduled for publication in September 2026. The measurement coverage spans the period from 1970 to 2024.
  
  The APO-PDB 2026 includes 28 Asian economies—Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Chinese Taipei, Fiji, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, the Maldives, Pakistan, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkey, Bhutan, Brunei, and Viet Nam—as well as the United States.

• Asia Quality-adjusted Labor Input Database (AQALI) 2026

  Koji Nomura, Sho Inaba, and Shiori Nakayama

  Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University, 

  2025.10

  -

  2026.06

  , 

  Database science, Joint

  　View Details

  The AQALI 2026 is utilized in the APO Productivity Databook 2026 (to be published in September 2026). The measurement covers from 1970 to 2024.
  
  It includes 28 Asian economies—Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Chinese Taipei, Fiji, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, the Maldives, Pakistan, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkey, Bhutan, Brunei, and Viet Nam—as well as the United States.

• Monthly GDP Growth (JMGDP_202603)

  Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

  Nomura Lab at Keio Economic Observatory, 

  2026.03

  , 

  Database science, Joint

  　View Details

  JMGDP is a monthly GDP estimate for Japan developed and published by the Nomura Lab at the Keio Economic Observatory (KEO), Keio University. It features a production-side approach across 36 industries with double-deflation-based value-added estimation, offering a perspective on economic conditions distinct from the expenditure-based official statistics. Estimates are released around the end of each month with an approximate one-month lag behind the reference period, and have been published continuously since October 2022. A quarterly counterpart, JQGDP, is also available, enabling direct comparison with the Cabinet Office's JSNA quarterly estimates.
  JMGDP_202603 is updated through February 2026.

  PDF1

• Energy Cost Monitoring for Japan (ECM_JPN_202602)

  Koji Nomura, Sho Inaba, and Mansaku Yoshida

  Nomura Lab at Keio Economic Observatory, 

  2026.02

  , 

  Database science, Joint

  　View Details

  ECM monitors international disparities in real energy costs across nine countries — Japan, China, South Korea, India, the United States, France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom — publishing high-frequency estimates of the Real Unit Energy Cost (RUEC) and the Real Price Level Index (Real PLI). The Japan-specific component provides monthly estimates of real energy costs and identifies the effects of energy subsidies. In addition, production and import indices for energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) manufacturing industries affected by energy price surges and environmental policies are measured and published with international comparisons.

• Multilateral Energy Cost Monitoring (ECM_202602)

  Koji Nomura, Sho Inaba, and Mansaku Yoshida

  Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University, 

  2026.02

  , 

  Database science, Joint

  　View Details

  The ECM provides a high-frequency indicator — Real Unit Energy Cost (RUEC) and Real Price Level Index for energy (Real PLI) — to measure and compare real energy cost differentials across nine countries: four in Asia (China, India, Japan, and Korea), and four in Europe (France, Germany, Italy, and the UK), and the U.S. The ECM also releases the EITE (Energy-Intensive Trade-Exposed) Output Index.
  
  The PLI (price level index) is estimated through December 2025, RUEC (real unit energy cost) through Q4 2025, and the EITE (energy-intensive trade-exposed) output index through December 2025.

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Awards 【 Display / hide 】

Awards 【 Display / hide 】

• The 48th Nikkei Award (Nikkei Keizai-Tosho-Bunka-Sho)

  Koji Nomura, 2005.11, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Measurement of Capital and Productivity

  Type of Award： Award from publisher, newspaper, foundation, etc.

• Keio Award

  Koji Nomura, 2005.11, Keio Univeristy

  Type of Award： Keio commendation etc.

Courses Taught 【 Display / hide 】

Courses Taught 【 Display / hide 】

• INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS

  2025

• THEORY OF INDEX NUMBERS

  2025

• SPECIAL STUDY OF ECONOMETRICS

  2025

• SEMINAR: SPECIAL STUDY OF ECONOMETRICS

  2025

• SEMINAR: ECONOMETRICS

  2025

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Social Activities 【 Display / hide 】

Social Activities 【 Display / hide 】

• Workshop in Maldives on EPiC and productivity-driven economic growth

  UNESCAP and Ministry of Finance and Planning Republic of Maldives,  (Champa Central Hotel, Male, Maldives)

  , 

  2026.03

  -

  2026.04

  　View Summary

  The workshop supports the formulation of the Maldives National Development Plan through a collaborative effort led by the Department of National Planning Maldives, with technical assistance from the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and funding from the China‑ESCAP Cooperation Programme (CECP).
  
  ESCAP’s support includes a long-term productivity analysis of the economy of the Maldives (1970–2023), examining trends in total factor productivity, labour productivity, and capital productivity to identify sources of growth, structural transformation, and opportunities for diversification. These findings inform the economic priorities of the draft plan, particularly the pillar on building a resilient, productive and inclusive economy.
  
  Overall, the workshop aims to refine the draft national development plan and strengthen its results and monitoring framework using the EPiC methodology, ensuring that policy priorities translate into measurable and inclusive development outcomes.
  
  

• 2025 ALPS IV Report (in Japanese)

  RITE

  , 

  2026.03

• "Report by the Study Group on the Economy and Society for 2040" (in Japanese)

  SBI FInancial and Economic Research Institute

  , 

  2026.02

• "Thinking About the World Economy: From “Something Distant” to “Something Personal” "

  令和７年度 埼玉県合同三田会 (慶應義塾大学 三田キャンパス)

  , 

  2025.11

• Technical Training Workshop on Productivity Account for Bhutan

  Ministry of Finance, Royal Government of Bhutan, and UNESCAP,  (Thimphu Deluxe Hotel, Thimphu)

  , 

  2025.11

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Media Coverage 【 Display / hide 】

Media Coverage 【 Display / hide 】

• "Can you believe the price?" (in Japanese)

  Denki Shimbun, 2026.04

• "The “Worst-Case Scenario” Facing Japan Amid Rising Oil Prices: “If the Attack on Iran Drags On, Electricity Rates Will Hit ‘All-Time Highs’”" (in Japanese)

  Shinchosha, Daily Shincho, 2026.04

• "AI to Drive GDP to 1,000 Trillion Yen by 2040" (in Japanese)

  Nikkei Shimbun, 2026.03

• "Raising Thailand’s productivity through regulatory reform"

  OECD, oecdecoscope.blog, 2026.02

• ”AI-Driven New Growth Path for Japan's Economy—Decarbonization Policies as Growth Inhibitors” (in Japanese)

  Energy Forum, EP Report, 2026.02

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Academic Activities 【 Display / hide 】

Academic Activities 【 Display / hide 】

• Development of Augmented Productivity Database (APDB), 1970-2024

  Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University, 

  2025.10

  -

  2026.09

• Development of Augmented Productivity Database (APDB), 1970-2023

  Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University, 

  2024.10

  -

  2025.09

• UNESCAP Project- Development of Growth Accounting Framework for Bhutan

  Ministry of Finance and Keio Economic Observatory,  (Ministry of Finance, Royal Government of Bhutan, and KEO, Keio University) , 

  2024.09

  -

  2024.12

• Contibution to the special issue honoring professor Dale W. Jorgenson and his pioneering contributions to unraveling the impact of digital technology on economic growth

  Barbara M. Fraumeni and Khuong M. Vu,  (Telecommunications Policy) , 

  2023.12

• Development of Augmented Productivity Database (APDB), 1970-2022

  Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University, 

  2023.10

  -

  2024.09

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Committee Experiences 【 Display / hide 】

Committee Experiences 【 Display / hide 】

• 2026.04

  -

  2027.03

  Editorial Board Member, "Economic Analysis" Editorial Board, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan

• 2026.02

  -

  2027.01

  Advisor, SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute

• 2025.12

  -

  2027.12

  Committee member, Keidanren Carbon Neutral Action Plan Third Party Evaluation Committee

• 2025.08

  -

  2026.04

  Consultant, UNESCAP (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific)

• 2025.06

  -

  2026.03

  Committee Member, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Working Group for Promoting Innovation and Investment

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