Hoshino, Takahiro



Faculty of Economics (Mita)



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Academic Degrees 【 Display / hide

  • 博士(経済学), 名古屋大学

  • 博士(学術), 東京大学


Research Areas 【 Display / hide

  • Statistical science

  • Economic statistics

  • Commerce


Books 【 Display / hide

Papers 【 Display / hide

  • Semiparametric Bayesian Estimation for Marginal Parametric Potential Outcome Modeling: Application to Causal Inference

    Takahiro Hoshino

    Journal of the American Statistical Association (Journal of the American Statistical Association)  108 ( 504 ) 1189 - 1204 2013.12

    Research paper (scientific journal), Single Work, Accepted,  ISSN  01621459

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    We propose a new semiparametric Bayesian model for causal inference in which assignment to treatment depends on potential outcomes. The model uses the probit stick-breaking process mixture proposed by Chung and Dunson (2009), a variant of the Dirichlet process mixture modeling. In contrast to previous Bayesian models, the proposed model directly estimates the parameters of the marginal parametric model of potential outcomes, while it relaxes the strong ignorability assumption, and requires no parametric model assumption for the assignment model and conditional distribution of the covariate vector. The proposed estimation method is more robust than maximum likelihood estimation, in that it does not require knowledge of the full joint distribution of potential outcomes, covariates, and assignments. In addition, the method is more efficient than fully nonparametric Bayes methods. We apply this model to infer the differential effects of cognitive and noncognitive skills on the wages of production and nonproduction workers using panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth in 1979. The study also presents the causal effect of online word-of-mouth onWeb site browsing behavior. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

  • The impact of competitors store flyer advertisement on EDLP/HiLo chain performance in highly competitive retail market: GPS information and POS data approach in Japan

    KATO Ryo and HOSHINO Takahiro

    Journal of Advertising 48 ( 5 ) 569 - 587 2020.03

    Research paper (scientific journal), Single Work, Accepted

  • Dynamic two stage modeling for category-level and brand-level purchases using potential outcome approach with Bayes inference

    Kei Miyazaki, Takahiro Hoshino, Ulf Bockenholt

    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics)  in press 2020

    Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted,  ISSN  07350015

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    © 2020, © 2020 American Statistical Association. We propose an econometric two-stage model for category-level purchase and brand-level purchase that allows for simultaneous brand purchases in the analysis of scanner panel data. The proposed model formulation is consistent with the traditional theory of consumer behavior. We conduct Bayesian estimation with the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for our proposed model. The simulation studies show that previously proposed related models can cause severe bias in predicting future brand choices, while the proposed method can effectively predict them. Additionally in a marketing application, the proposed method can examine brand switching behaviors that existing methods cannot. Moreover, we show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed method is higher than that of existing methods.

  • Influenza vaccination effectiveness for people aged under 65 years in Japan, 2013/2014 season: Application of a doubly robust method to a large-scale, real-world dataset

    Shibata N., Kimura S., Hoshino T., Urushihara H.

    BMC Infectious Diseases (BMC Infectious Diseases)  19 ( 1 ) 586 2019.07

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    © 2019 The Author(s). Background: Influenza vaccination is recognized as a primary public health intervention which prevents the illness of patients and relieves the societal burdens of influenza for medical community as well as the economy. To date, no effectiveness study of influenza vaccination has been conducted including a large population with a wide age span, in Japan. Here, we evaluated the clinical effectiveness of influenza vaccination in a large Japanese population. Methods: We conducted a cohort study using a large-scale claims database for employee health care insurance plans. Vaccination status was identified using plan records for influenza vaccination subsidies. We excluded people aged 65 years or more because of the unavailability of vaccination records. Effectiveness of vaccination in preventing influenza and its complication was evaluated with doubly robust methods using inversed probability treatment weighting to adjust health conscious behaviours and other confounders. Results: During the 2013/2014 influenza season, 369,425 subjects with age range from 1 to 64 years were eligible. Vaccination rate was 39.5% and an estimated odds ratio (OR) for influenza onset was 0.775 after doubly robust adjustment. Age-stratified ORs were significantly reduced in all age groups; lowest in subjects aged 1 to 4 years (0.600) and highest in those aged 13 to 19 (0.938). ORs for all the influenza complication outcomes were also statistically significant (0.403-0.709). Conclusions: We confirmed the clinical effectiveness of influenza vaccination in people aged 1 to 64 years. Influenza vaccination significantly prevented influenza onset and was more effective in reducing secondary risks of influenza complications.

  • マーケティングと行動経済学:二重過程理論と文脈効果に関するレビューと購買履歴データからの実証分析

    星野 崇宏・竹内 真登

    行動経済学 12 ( 1 ) 51 - 61 2019.03

    Single Work, Accepted

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Papers, etc., Registered in KOARA 【 Display / hide

Reviews, Commentaries, etc. 【 Display / hide

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Presentations 【 Display / hide

  • ポイントプログラムの長期効果:目標勾配仮説は成立するのか

    星野 崇宏

    第6回行動経済学会大会, 2012.12, Oral Presentation(general)

  • Causal Inference for Multilevel Modeling Under Nonrandom Allocation to Level-2 Units: Moderated causal effect as a function of macro-level variables

    HOSHINO Takahiro

    IMPS2012, The 77nd Annual and the 18th International Meetings of the Psychometric Society, 2012.07, Oral Presentation(general)

  • Causal Inference Framework for Latent Variable Modeling

    HOSHINO Takahiro

    IMPS2011,The 76th Annual and the 17th International Meetings of the Psychometric Society, 2012.07, Oral Presentation(guest/special)

  • プロスペクト理論を考慮した同時購買行動での価格プロモーション戦略

    星野 崇宏

    第90回日本マーケティング・サイエンス学会研究大会, 2011.12, Oral Presentation(general)

  • 欠測データと因果効果の推定

    星野 崇宏

    ICPSR国内利用協議会統計セミナー, 2010.09, Public discourse, seminar, tutorial, course, lecture and others

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Research Projects of Competitive Funds, etc. 【 Display / hide

  • 異質性を考慮した因果効果の推定法の開発とその応用


    MEXT,JSPS, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research, 星野 崇宏, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Principal Investigator

  • Research of discrepancy between behavior logs and survey responses and intervention for reduction of discrepancies


    MEXT,JSPS, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research, 星野 崇宏, Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory) , Principal Investigator

  • General studies and applications for Treatment effect estimation under non-experimental studies


    MEXT,JSPS, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research, 星野 崇宏, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Principal Investigator

Awards 【 Display / hide

  • JPSP Prize

    2017.02, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, 日本学術振興会賞

    Type of Award: International Academic Awards

  • 義塾賞

    2018.11, 慶應義塾大学

    Type of Award: Keio commendation etc.

  • The Japan Statistical Society Achievement Award

    2017.09, The Japan Statistical Society, The Japan Statistical Society Achievement Award

    Type of Award: Awards of National Conference, Council and Symposium

  • 慶應義塾大学 印東太郎賞

    2012.09, 慶應義塾大学, 慶應義塾大学 印東太郎賞

    Type of Award: Other Awards

  • 日本行動計量学会 出版賞 調査観察データの統計科学

    2011.09, 日本行動計量学会, 日本行動計量学会 出版賞 調査観察データの統計科学

    Type of Award: Awards of National Conference, Council and Symposium.  Country: 日本

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Courses Taught 【 Display / hide











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Memberships in Academic Societies 【 Display / hide

  • The Japan Statistical Society

  • Association of Behavioral Economics and Finance

  • Japanese Economic Associaion

  • The Japanese Psychological Association

  • The Japanese Association of Educational PSychology


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