論文 - 藤原　一平

Is the central bank's publication of economic forecasts influential?

Fujiwara I.

Economics Letters （Economics Letters）  89 （ 3 ） 255 - 261 2005年12月

ISSN  0165-1765

　概要を見る

We examine how a central bank's economic forecasts affect forecasts by professional forecasters and vice versa. Results show that while central bank forecasts are not significantly influenced by those of professional forecasters, the latter are however notably affected by the former. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The Japanese economic model (JEM)

I Fujiwara, N Hara, Y Hirose, Y Teranishi

Monetary and Economic Studies 23 (2), 61-142 2005年

Monetary Policy in a Liquidity Trap: What Have We Learned, and to What End?*

I Fujiwara, N Hara, N Hirakata, S Watanabe, K Yoshimura

International Finance 8 (3), 471-508 2005年

Shakai no Keizai Kousei to Kinyuu Seisaku no Mokuteki (Social Welfare and the Goal of Monetary Policy)

T Kimura, I Fujiwara, T Kurozumi

Bank of Japan Review Series 2005年

Output composition of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Japan

Fujiwara I.

Topics in Macroeconomics （Topics in Macroeconomics）  4 （ 1 ）  2004年

ISSN  1534-5998

　概要を見る

In this paper, we investigate the output composition of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Japan. The predominant channel through which monetary policy affects output in Japan is usually thought to be the investment channel, namely the process whereby a change in the interest rate alters the cost of capital and therefore investment. In the United States, however, the consumption channel, which works through intertemporal substitution, is commonly considered the more significant of the two. The aim of this paper is twofold: 1) based on analysis using VAR models to understand which of the two channels, the consumption channel or the investment channel, plays the more important role in the transmission of the Japanese monetary policy: and 2) to contribute to the research on what Angeloni, Kashyap, Mojon and Terlizzese (2003) term the "Output Composition Puzzle," referring to the fact that whereas in the United States the predominant driver of output changes is the consumption channel, in the Euro area it is the investment channel. Results obtained from the Japanese models imply that the investment channel is more important. Copyright ©2004 by the authors. All rights reserved.

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The Japanese Economic Model: JEM

Y Teranishi, I Fujiwara, N Hara

Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 2004年

A Statistical Method for Inflation Forecasting: Hitting Every Vector Autoregression and Forecasting under Model Uncertainty."

I Fujiwara, M Koga

Monetary and Economic Studies 2004年

A statistical forecasting method for inflation forecasting: hitting every vector autoregression and forecasting under model uncertainty

I Fujiwara, M Koga

Monetary and Economic Studies 22 (1), 123-142 2004年

Output Composition of the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Јapan

F Ippei

Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Јapan 2003年

An Essay on Asymmetric Movements in Foreign Exchange Rates:" switching Strategy" as a Source of Asymmetry

I Fujiwara

University of Oxford 2000年