論文 - 藤原　一平

Automation and disappearing routine occupations in Japan

Kikuchi S., Fujiwara I., Shirota T.

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 74 2024年12月

ISSN  08891583

　概要を見る

We examine the implications of automation technology in Japan since 1980, comparing different local labor markets with different degrees of automation exposure. First, we do not find evidence that automation reduces employment rate within demographic groups and automation encourages workers to move from regular to non-regular employment. Second, we show that automation shifts employment from routine occupations in the manufacturing sector to service sectors, while increasing the share of establishments and sales in the manufacturing sector. Finally, we show that this shift in labor demand is attributed to younger generations and non-college-educated workers.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Re-Examining What We Can Learn About Counterfactual Results from Time Series Regression

I Fujiwara, A Pagan

CAMA Working Papers 2024年

Institute for Economic Studies, Keio University

I Fujiwara, Y Hirose

2024年

Connecting Exchange Rates to Fundamentals Under Indeterminacy

I Fujiwara, Y Hirose

Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2024年

A Technology-Gap Model of ‘Premature’Deindustrialization

I Fujiwara, K Matsuyama

American Economic Review 114 (11), 3714-3745 2024年

Aging and the real interest rate in Japan: A labor market channel

Fujita S., Fujiwara I.

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies （Journal of the Japanese and International Economies）  69 2023年09月

ISSN  08891583

　概要を見る

This paper explores a causal link between aging of the labor force and the declining trend in the real interest rate in Japan. We develop a search and matching model that features heterogeneous workers with respect to their ages and firm-specific skills. Using the model, we examine the long-run implications of the sharp drop in labor force entry in the 1970s. We show that the changes in the demographic structure induce significant low-frequency movements in per capita consumption growth and thus the real interest rate. The model suggests that aging of the labor force caused the real interest rate to decline by 1 percentage point between 1980 and 2010 in Japan.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Automation and the disappearance of routine work in japan

S Kikuchi, I Fujiwara, T Shirota

Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) 2023年

Automation and the Disappearance of Routine Work in Japan

K Shinnosuke, F Ippei, S Toyoichiro

Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) Discussion papers 2023年

Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle and Sunspot Fluctuations

I Fujiwara, Y Hirose

2023年

The Delphic forward guidance puzzle in New Keynesian models

Fujiwara I., Waki Y.

Review of Economic Dynamics （Review of Economic Dynamics）  46   280 - 301 2022年10月

ISSN  10942025

　概要を見る

When the central bank has information that can help the private sector better predict the future, should it communicate such information to the public? In purely forward-looking New Keynesian models, such Delphic forward guidance unambiguously reduces ex ante welfare by increasing the variability of inflation and the output gap. We call this phenomenon the Delphic forward guidance puzzle. In more elaborate models with endogenous state variables, a combination of Delphic forward guidance and preemptive policy actions may improve welfare. However, full information revelation is generally not optimal and what information needs to be revealed is highly model-dependent.

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Competition and the Phillips Curve

I Fujiwara, K Matsuyama

Centre for Economic Policy Research 2022年

Comment on “The Welfare Implications of Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience from 2013 to 2020”

Fujiwara I.

Asian Economic Policy Review （Asian Economic Policy Review）  16 （ 2 ） 243 - 244 2021年07月

ISSN  18328105

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Japan's uncertain fiscal outlook

I Fujiwara

East Asia Forum Quarterly 13 (3), 5-6 2021年

Measuring Robot Quality: Has Quality Improvement Slowed Down?

F Ippei, K Ryo, S Shigenori, S Toyoichiro

Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) Discussion papers 2021年

Measuring Robot Quality: Has Quality Improvement Slowed Down?

I Fujiwara, R Kimoto, S Shiratsuka, T Shirota

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP16556 2021年

Robot Penetration and Task Changes

K Arai, I Fujiwara, T Shirota

Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) 2021年

Robot Penetration and Task Changes

A Kosuke, F Ippei, S Toyoichiro

Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) Discussion papers 2021年

Exchange rate disconnect and the general equilibrium puzzle

Y Chen, I Fujiwara, Y Hirose

CAMA Working Paper 2021年

Comment on" The Welfare Implications of Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience from 2013 to 2020".

M Fukao

Asian Economic Policy Review 16 (2) 2021年

Robots and labour: implications for inflation dynamics

I Fujiwara, F Zhu

BIS Paper 2020年