Okubo Toshihiro

写真a

Affiliation

Faculty of Economics （Mita）

Position

Professor
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Message from the Faculty Member 【 Display / hide 】

  • RAあるいは研究員、研究補助スタッフ(基礎的な計算や集計、プログラミング)、大学院生を募集します。

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Profile Summary 【 Display / hide 】

  • https://keio.pure.elsevier.com/ja/persons/toshihiro-okubo
    Eメール: okubo[at]econ.keio.ac.jp
    研究内容
    ①企業の異質性と国際貿易・空間経済学
    産業集積の形成を生産性でとらえる理論と実証手法を開発。日本の産業集積政策の効果を検証。
    ②ニューグローバリゼーションと日本経済
    グローバリゼーションの観点から、バリューチェーンや海外直接投資、デジタル経済(テレワーク、ロボット)を研究。比較対象として戦間期の数量経済史分析。
    ③環境と貿易・産業集積、エネルギー
    環境規制の国際貿易や企業立地に与える影響を分析。特に汚染規制回避仮説の検証。エネルギー政策(原発立地)と地域経済・産業集積の関係。環境政策の理論的分析。
    ④災害の経済学
    企業行動や地域経済をGISを用いて空間的に研究。防災の効果。
    ⑤地域経済分析
    景気循環や経済成長を地域レベルで分析。地域金融と企業、産業集積、地方創生など分析。比較対象として戦間期の地域金融・地域経済の数量経済史分析。

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Research Areas 【 Display / hide 】

  • Humanities & Social Sciences / Economic theory (国際経済学)

  • Humanities & Social Sciences / Economic policy (Applied Economics)

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Research Keywords 【 Display / hide 】

  • 国際経済学

  • 国際貿易論

  • 国際関係論

  • 地域経済・地域政策

  • 数量経済史(日本近現代)

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Research Themes 【 Display / hide 】

  • 企業が異質な下での国際貿易・空間経済学：理論・実証・政策研究, 

    2005.01
    -
    Present

  • グローバリゼーションと国際貿易・海外直接投資・オフショアリング・産業空洞化, 

    2000.01
    -
    Present

  • 空間経済学と公共政策の理論・実証研究, 

    2000.01
    -
    Present

  • 資源エネルギー・エコロジーと家計・地域・都市・生活の質, 

    2015.01
    -
    Present

  • 家計調査分析・設計（慶應家計パネル調査）, 

    2014.01
    -
    Present

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Proposed Theme of Joint Research 【 Display / hide 】

  • デジタル化、人工知能やロボットと経済活動に関する研究・社会実験

    Interested in joint research with other research organizations (including universities, etc.),  Desired form： Technical Consultation, Funded Research, Cooperative Research, Other

  • 企業や地域のSDGsやCSRへの取り組み

    Interested in joint research with other research organizations (including universities, etc.),  Desired form： Technical Consultation, Funded Research, Cooperative Research, Other

  • 日本の企業の国際化、企業行動の実態調査と政策評価

    Interested in joint research with industry (including private organizations, etc.)

  • 自然災害や防災・インフラに関する文理融合型研究

    Interested in joint research with other research organizations (including universities, etc.),  Desired form： Technical Consultation, Funded Research, Cooperative Research, Other

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Books 【 Display / hide 】

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Papers 【 Display / hide 】

  • Social Norms and Preventive Behaviors in Japan and Germany During the COVID-19 Pandemic

    Toshihiro Okubo

    Frontiers in Public Health （Frontiers in Public Health)  10 2022.04

    Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted

    　View Summary

    Background: According to a recent paper by Gelfand et al., COVID-19 infection and case mortality rates are closely connected to the strength of social norms: “Tighter” cultures that abide by strict social norms are more successful in combating the pandemic than “looser” cultures that are more permissive. However, countries with similar levels of cultural tightness exhibit big differences in mortality rates. We are investigating potential explanations for this fact. Using data from Germany and Japan—two “tight” countries with very different infection and mortality rates—we examined how differences in socio-demographic and other determinants explain differences in individual preventive attitudes and behaviors. Methods: We compared preventive attitudes and behaviors in 2020 based on real-time representative survey data and used logit regression models to study how individual attitudes and behaviors are shaped by four sets of covariates: individual socio-demographics, health, personality, and regional-level controls. Employing Blinder-Oaxaca regression techniques, we quantified the extent to which differences in averages of the covariates between Japan and Germany explain the differences in the observed preventive attitudes and behaviors. Results: In Germany and Japan, similar proportions of the population supported mandatory vaccination, avoided travel, and avoided people with symptoms of a cold. In Germany, however, a significantly higher proportion washed their hands frequently and avoided crowds, physical contact, public transport, peak-hour shopping, and contact with the elderly. In Japan, a significantly higher proportion were willing to be vaccinated. We also show that attitudes and behaviors varied significantly more with covariates in Germany than in Japan. Differences in averages of the covariates contribute little to explaining the observed differences in preventive attitudes and behaviors between the two countries. Conclusion: Consistent with tightness-looseness theory, the populations of Japan and Germany responded similarly to the pandemic. The observed differences in infection and fatality rates therefore cannot be explained by differences in behavior. The major difference in attitudes is the willingness to be vaccinated, which was much higher in Japan. Furthermore, the Japanese population behaved more uniformly across social groups than the German population. This difference in the degree of homogeneity has important implications for the effectiveness of policy measures during the pandemic.

  • The Resilience of FDI to Natural Disasters through Industrial Linkages

    Toshihiro Okubo, Hayato Kato

    Environmental and Resource Economics （Environmental and Resource Economics)  82 （ 1 ） 177 - 225 2022.03

    Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted,  ISSN  09246460

    　View Summary

    When do multinationals show resilience during natural disasters? To answer this, we develop a simple model in which foreign multinationals and local firms in the host country are interacted through input-output linkages. When natural disasters seriously hit local firms and thus increase the cost of sourcing local intermediate inputs, most multinationals may leave the host country. However, they are likely to stay if they are tightly linked with local suppliers and face low trade costs of importing foreign intermediates. We further provide a number of extensions of the basic model to incorporate, for example, multinationals with heterogeneous productivity and disaster reconstruction.

  • `By a Silken Thread': regional banking integration and credit reallocation during Japan's Lost Decade

    Toshihiro Okubo, Mathias Hoffmann

    Journal of International Economics （Journal of International Economics)  137 2022.02

    Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted,  ISSN  00221996

    　View Summary

    Regional banking integration allows credit to be reallocated to regions with high credit demand. Using the natural experiment of Japan's lost decade, we show that this reallocation channel mitigated the real effects from the bank liquidity shock in prefectures with many bank-dependent small firms. We propose an instrument for modern-day regional banking integration that exploits the fact that regional segmentation of banking markets in Japan goes back to the institutions set up for silk export finance in the late 19th century. We illustrate how the difference between the OLS and IV estimates can provide information about unobserved cross-regional heterogeneity in bank-firm matches when only aggregate regional data is available. Our results highlight that well-integrated banking markets are important and complementary to bond markets in limiting macroeconomic asymmetries in a monetary union, in particular during major financial crises.

  • Industrial cluster policy and transaction networks: Evidence from firm-level data in Japan

    Toshihiro Okubo

    Canadian Journal of Economics  2022.01

    Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted

  • Who got vaccinated for COVID-19? Evidence from Japan

    Toshihiro Okubo

    Vaccines （Vaccines)  9 （ 12 ）  2021.12

    Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted

    　View Summary

    Vaccination has been critical to reducing infections and deaths during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. While previous studies have investigated attitudes toward taking a vaccine, studies on the determinants of COVID-19 vaccination behavior are scant. We examine what characteristics, including socioeconomic and non-economic factors, are associated with vaccination behavior for COVID-19 in Japan. We use a large nationwide online survey with approximately 10,000 participants. As of September 2021, 85% of the respondents said that they had received or would receive a COVID-19 vaccine. Employing logistic regression analysis on vaccination behavior, we found that vaccination rates are higher among those who are older, married, educated, and/or work in a large company. On the other hand, vaccination rates tend to be lower among the self-employed, younger women, and those with poor mental health. Income did not significantly correlate with vaccination. Medical workers were found to have a relatively high rate of vaccination. Although attitude towards risk and time preference were not crucial factors for vaccination, fear of infection, infection prevention behavior, and agreement with government policies on behavioral restrictions in crisis situations positively correlated with vaccination.

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Papers, etc., Registered in KOARA 【 Display / hide 】

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Reviews, Commentaries, etc. 【 Display / hide 】

  • デジタルエコノミーとグローバリゼーション「技術革新、世界の適応迫る」

    日本経済新聞　11月29日夕刊  2021.11

    Meeting report, Joint Work

  • コメント「デジタル加速、副作用も 。効率化の恩恵、所得が左右」

    大久保敏弘

    共同通信　2021年3月4日  2021.03

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media)

  • コメント・解説「うつろう⽇常・新型コロナ１年︓３ 働き⽅・都市部から地⽅移転 地域発展の可能性秘める ／北海道」

    大久保敏弘

    毎日新聞北海道版　2021年2月6日朝刊  2021.02

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media)

  • コメント「日本社会が失ったもの」

    大久保敏弘

    週刊現代　2021年1月23日号  2021.01

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media)

  • コメント・解説：「コロナで変わる世界：第２部　パンデミックと社会／６　中間層転落、開く格差」

    大久保敏弘

    毎日新聞　2021年1月10日朝刊  2021.01

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (trade magazine, newspaper, online media)

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Presentations 【 Display / hide 】

  • 日本の産業集積政策の実証研究と政策課題:ソフト・コンパクト・デジタル化

    イノベーション集積研究会, 

    2022.01
    , 

    Oral presentation (invited, special), 東京大学CREI

  • Industrial cluster policy and transaction networks: Evidence from firm-level data in Japan

    大久保敏弘

    韓国国際経済学会(KIEA), 

    2021.12
    , 

    Oral presentation (general)

  • デジタルエコノミーとグローバリゼーション

    大久保敏弘

    一橋大学政策フォーラム, 

    2021.10
    , 

    Symposium, workshop panel (nominated), 一橋大学

  • 社会課題専門家ワークショップ　研究開発領域を創出するための近未来対話

    大久保敏弘

    「将来社会」を見据えた研究開発戦略の策定における官学の共創プロジェクト, 

    2021.10
    , 

    Symposium, workshop panel (nominated), 文部科学省　科学技術・学術政策局

  • 自然災害の経済学(基調講演)

    大久保敏弘

    自然災害と適応ワークショップ (名古屋市立大学経済学部) , 

    2021.08
    , 

    Oral presentation (keynote)

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Research Projects of Competitive Funds, etc. 【 Display / hide 】

  • Understanding Long-term Economic Stagnation in Japan

    2020.04
    -
    2024.03

    日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業　基盤研究A, No Setting

  • Empirical Studies on Natural Disaster and Energy

    2020.04
    -
    2023.03

    旭硝子財団, Research grant, Principal investigator

  • Natural Disasters, International Trade and Economic Geography

    2019.04
    -
    2024.03

    MEXT,JSPS, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Principal investigator

  • 高質で強靭な産業集積の形成の理論・実証研究(科研費　基盤研究C)

    2016.04
    -
    2020.03

    MEXT,JSPS, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Principal investigator

  • 人口動態の空間経済分析（科研費・基盤B）

    2015
    -
    2017

    Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Research grant, Coinvestigator(s)

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Awards 【 Display / hide 】

  • Elsevier and Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Sponsored Best Paper Award

    2018.06, 30th Asian Finance Association Annual Meeting

    Type of Award： International academic award (Japan or overseas)

  • 慶應義塾大学「特選塾員」

    2017.02, 慶應義塾大学

    Type of Award： Keio commendation etc.

  • 小田賞(研究奨励賞)

    2016.11, 日本国際経済学会

    Type of Award： Award from Japanese society, conference, symposium, etc.

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Other 【 Display / hide 】

  • 「日本の研究.com」による最新研究の紹介: 新型コロナウイルス感染症拡大下でのテレワークと就業者の実態に関する研究（「第６回テレワークに関する就業者実態調査」速報）

    2022年02月

    　View Details

    https://research-er.jp/articles/view/107981
    新型コロナウイルス感染症拡大下でのテレワークと就業者の実態に関する研究（「第６回テレワークに関する就業者実態調査」速報）

  • 「日本の研究.com」による最新研究の紹介 新型コロナウイルス感染症拡大下でのテレワークと就業者の実態に関する研究（「第5回テレワークに関する就業者実態調査」速報）

    2021年10月

    　View Details

    新型コロナウイルス感染症拡大下でのテレワークと就業者の実態に関する研究（「第5回テレワークに関する就業者実態調査」速報）https://research-er.jp/articles/view/103836

  • テレビ番組制作取材協力(NHK大阪)： 歴史探訪「缶詰は見た日本近現代史」

    2021年10月

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    歴史探訪「缶詰は見た日本近現代史」

  • 「令和３年版環境白書・循環型社会白書・生物多様性白書」に採用・掲載。大久保敏弘・NIRA「第３回テレワークに関する就業者実態調査報告書」

    2021年07月

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    「令和３年版環境白書・循環型社会白書・生物多様性白書」に採用・掲載。大久保敏弘・NIRA「第３回テレワークに関する就業者実態調査報告書」都心部のテレワークの利用状況。

  • 「令和3年版国土交通白書」に採用・掲載。大久保敏弘・NIRA「第３回テレワークに関する就業者実態調査報告書」テレワークの動向。

    2021年

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    「令和3年版国土交通白書」に採用・掲載。大久保敏弘・NIRA「第３回テレワークに関する就業者実態調査報告書」テレワークの動向。

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Courses Taught 【 Display / hide 】

  • SEMINAR: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

    2022

  • SEMINAR IN SPECIAL TOPICS

    2022

  • FOREIGN TRADE POLICY B

    2022

  • FOREIGN TRADE POLICY A

    2022

  • FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

    2022

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Courses Previously Taught 【 Display / hide 】

  • 通信教育部　卒業論文指導

    慶應義塾大学

    2018.04
    -
    2019.03

  • 貿易政策A

    慶応義塾大学

    2018.04
    -
    2019.03
    , 

    Spring Semester

  • Econometrics

    Keio University

    2018.04
    -
    2019.03

  • Seminar on International Trade

    Keio University

    2018.04
    -
    2019.03

  • 研究会（3年）

    慶応義塾大学

    2018.04
    -
    2019.03

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Educational Activities and Special Notes 【 Display / hide 】

  • 特別講義(リチャード＝ボールドウィン教授)の企画及び開催

    2018.05

    , Special Affairs

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    特別講義(リチャード＝ボールドウィン教授)を開催した。学部上級向け(学部生、PCP、PEARL、大学院生、ダブルディグリーDD学生向け)グローバリゼーションと国際経済に関する講義。2018年5月28日

  • 第4回福澤諭吉記念経済学特別講義(リチャード＝ボールドウィン教授)の企画及び開催

    2016.12

    , Special Affairs

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    第4回福澤諭吉記念経済学特別講義としてRichard Baldwin教授を招へいし開催した。2016年12月14日

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Social Activities 【 Display / hide 】

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Media Coverage 【 Display / hide 】

  • みずほ証券　機関投資家向けウェビナー

    2022.06

  • 国会参議院内閣委員会　デジタル関連法案審議　参考人

    2020.05

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Academic Activities 【 Display / hide 】

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Memberships in Academic Societies 【 Display / hide 】

  • 日本経済学会

    　

  • 日本国際経済学会

    　

  • 応用地域学会

    　

  • American Economic Association

    　

  • European Economic Association

    　

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Committee Experiences 【 Display / hide 】

  • 2020.05
    -
    2023.04

    専門委員, 日本学術振興会

  • 2022.05
    -
    2024.12

    客員研究員, 財務省財務総研

  • 2022.05
    -
    2023.03

    専門調査員, 文部科学省 科学技術・学術政策研究所

  • 2022.04
    -
    Present

    研究員, 内閣府経済社会総合研究所

  • 2021.05

    参考人, 国会 参議院内閣委員会

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