Hirakawa, Shinya

写真a

Affiliation

School of Medicine, Department of Health Policy and Management （Shinanomachi）

Position

Project Assistant Professor (Non-tenured)/Project Research Associate (Non-tenured)/Project Instructor (Non-tenured)
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  • The impact of COVID-19 on the diagnosis and treatment of HCC: analysis of a nationwide registry for advanced liver diseases (REAL)

    Okushin K., Tateishi R., Hirakawa S., Tachimori H., Uchino K., Nakagomi R., Yamada T., Nakatsuka T., Minami T., Sato M., Fujishiro M., Hasegawa K., Eguchi Y., Kanto T., Yoshiji H., Izumi N., Kudo M., Koike K.

    Scientific Reports 14 （ 1 ）  2024.12

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    The number of cancer cases diagnosed during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has decreased. This study investigated the impact of the pandemic on the clinical practice of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using a novel nationwide REgistry for Advanced Liver diseases (REAL) in Japan. We retrieved data of patients initially diagnosed with HCC between January 2018 and December 2021. We adopted tumor size as the primary outcome measure and compared it between the pre-COVID-19 (2018 and 2019) and COVID-19 eras (2020 and 2021). We analyzed 13,777 patients initially diagnosed with HCC (8074 in the pre-COVID-19 era and 5703 in the COVID-19 era). The size of the maximal intrahepatic tumor did not change between the two periods (mean [SD] = 4.3 [3.6] cm and 4.4 [3.6] cm), whereas the proportion of patients with a single tumor increased slightly from 72.0 to 74.3%. HCC was diagnosed at a similar Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage. However, the proportion of patients treated with systemic therapy has increased from 5.4 to 8.9%. The proportion of patients with a non-viral etiology significantly increased from 55.3 to 60.4%. Although the tumor size was significantly different among the etiologies, the subgroup analysis showed that the tumor size did not change after stratification by etiology. In conclusion, the characteristics of initially diagnosed HCC remained unchanged during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, regardless of differences in etiology. A robust surveillance system should be established particularly for non-B, non-C etiology to detect HCC in earlier stages.

  • Predicting surgical outcomes of acute diffuse peritonitis: Updated risk models based on real-world clinical data

    Sato N., Hirakawa S., Marubashi S., Tachimori H., Oshikiri T., Miyata H., Kakeji Y., Kitagawa Y.

    Annals of Gastroenterological Surgery 8 （ 4 ） 711 - 727 2024.07

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    Aim: The existing predictive risk models for the surgical outcome of acute diffused peritonitis (ADP) need renovation by adding relevant variables such as ADP's definition or causative etiology to pursue outstanding data collection reflecting the real world. We aimed to revise the risk models predicting mortality and morbidities of ADP using the latest Japanese Nationwide Clinical Database (NCD) variable set. Methods: Clinical dataset of ADP patients who underwent surgery, and registered in the NCD between 2016 and 2019, were used to develop a risk model for surgical outcomes. The primary outcome was perioperative mortality. Results: After data cleanup, 45 379 surgical cases for ADP were derived for analysis. The perioperative and 30-day mortality were 10.6% and 7.2%, respectively. The prediction models have been created for the mortality and 10 morbidities associated with the mortality. The top five relevant predictors for perioperative mortality were age >80, advanced cancer with multiple metastases, platelet count of <50 000/mL, serum albumin of <2.0 g/dL, and unknown ADP site. The C-indices of perioperative and 30-day mortality were 0.859 and 0.857, respectively. The predicted value calculated with the risk models for mortality was highly fitted with the actual probability from the lower to the higher risk groups. Conclusions: Risk models for postoperative mortality and morbidities with good predictive performance and reliability were revised and validated using the recent real-world clinical dataset. These models help to predict ADP surgical outcomes accurately and are available for clinical settings.

  • Risk model for morbidity and mortality following liver surgery based on a national Japanese database

    Orimo T., Hirakawa S., Taketomi A., Tachimori H., Oshikiri T., Miyata H., Kakeji Y., Shirabe K.

    Annals of Gastroenterological Surgery  2024

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    Aim: We evaluated the morbidity and mortality associated with liver surgery in Japan and developed a risk model for liver resection using information from a national database. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 73 861 Japanese patients who underwent hepatectomy between 2014 and 2019, using information from the National Clinical Database (NCD) registrations. The primary endpoints were 30 days and in-hospital mortality, and the secondary endpoints were postoperative complications. Logistic regression risk models for postoperative morbidity and mortality after hepatectomy were constructed based on preoperative clinical parameters and types of liver resection, and validated using a bootstrapping method. Results: The 30-day and in-hospital mortality rates were 0.9% and 1.7%, respectively. Trisectionectomy, hepatectomy for gallbladder cancer, hepatectomy for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma, and poor activities of daily living were statistically significant risk factors with high odds ratios for both postoperative morbidity and mortality. Internal validations indicated that the c-indices for 30-day and in-hospital mortality were 0.824 and 0.839, respectively. Conclusions: We developed a risk model for liver resection by using a national surgical database that can predict morbidity and mortality based on preoperative factors.

  • Morbidity after left trisectionectomy for hepato-biliary malignancies: An analysis of the National Clinical Database of Japan

    Terasaki F., Hirakawa S., Tachimori H., Sugiura T., Nanashima A., Komatsu S., Miyata H., Kakeji Y., Kitagawa Y., Nakamura M., Endo I.

    Journal of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Sciences 30 （ 12 ） 1304 - 1315 2023.12

    ISSN  18686974

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    Background: The aim of this study was to analyze the nationwide surgical outcome of a left trisectionectomy (LT) and to identify the perioperative risk factors associated with its morbidity. Methods: Cases of LT for hepato-biliary malignancies registered at the Japanese National Clinical Database between 2013 and 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. Statistical analyses were performed to identify the perioperative risk factors associated with a morbidity of Clavien–Dindo classification (CD) ≥III. Results: Left trisectionectomy was performed on 473 and 238 cases of biliary and nonbiliary cancers, respectively. Morbidity of CD ≥III and V occurred in 45% and 5% of cases with biliary cancer, respectively, compared with 26% and 2% of cases with nonbiliary cancer, respectively. In multivariable analyses, biliary cancer was significantly associated with a morbidity of CD ≥III (odds ratio, 1.87; p =.018). In subgroup analyses for biliary cancer, classification of American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status (ASA-PS) 2, portal vein resection (PVR), and intraoperative blood loss ≥30 mL/kg were significantly associated with a morbidity of CD ≥III. Conclusions: Biliary cancer induces severe morbidity after LT. The ASA-PS classification, PVR, and intraoperative blood loss indicate severe morbidity after LT for biliary cancer.

  • Updating the Predictive Models for Mortality and Morbidity after Low Anterior Resection Based on the National Clinical Database

    Kawai K., Hirakawa S., Tachimori H., Oshikiri T., Miyata H., Kakeji Y., Kitagawa Y.

    Digestive Surgery 40 （ 3-4 ） 130 - 142 2023.09

    ISSN  02534886

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    Introduction: We previously developed risk models for mortality and morbidity after low anterior resection using a nationwide Japanese database. However, the milieu of low anterior resection in Japan has undergone drastic changes since then. This study aimed to construct risk models for 6 short-term postoperative outcomes after low anterior resection, i.e., in-hospital mortality, 30-day mortality, anastomotic leakage, surgical site infection except for anastomotic leakage, overall postoperative complication rate, and 30-day reoperation rate. Methods: This study enrolled 120,912 patients registered with the National Clinical Database, who underwent low anterior resection between 2014 and 2019. Multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to generate predictive models of mortality and morbidity using preoperative information, including the TNM stage. Results: We developed new risk prediction models for the overall postoperative complication and 30-day reoperation rates for low anterior resection, which were absent from the previous version. The concordance indices for each endpoint were 0.82 for in-hospital mortality, 0.79 for 30-day mortality, 0.64 for anastomotic leakage, 0.62 for surgical site infection besides anastomotic leakage, 0.63 for complications, and 0.62 for reoperation. The concordance indices of all four models included in the previous version showed improvement. Conclusion: This study successfully updated the risk calculators for predicting mortality and morbidity after low anterior resection using a model based on vast nationwide Japanese data.

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