Nomura, Shuhei

写真a

Affiliation

Research Centers and Institutes, Keio University Global Research Institute (Shinanomachi)

Position

Project Professor (Non-tenured)

External Links
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Other Affiliation 【 Display / hide 】

  • National Cancer Center, Center for Public Health Sciences, Visiting Researcher

  • National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, Visiting Researcher

  • Osaka University, Center for Infectious Disease Education and Research (CiDER), Collaborative Researcher

  • Economist Impact, Advisory Council on Long COVID

  • Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation (CAPRI), Senior Fellow

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Academic Background 【 Display / hide 】

  • 2007.04
    -
    2011.03

    The University of Tokyo, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences

    University, Graduated

  • 2011.04
    -
    2013.03

    The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Global Health Policy

    Graduate School, Completed, Master's course

  • 2013.09
    -
    2019.02

    Imperial College London, School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics

    United Kingdom, Graduate School, Completed, Doctoral course

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Academic Degrees 【 Display / hide 】

  • Master of Health Science, The University of Tokyo, Coursework, 2013.03

  • PhD in Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Imperial College London , Coursework, 2019.02

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Research Themes 【 Display / hide 】

  • Global Health Policy​, Global Health Diplomacy​, Global Burden of Disease (GBD)​, Universal Health Coverage (UHC)​, Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs)​ Prevention and Control​, Nutrition Science and Policy​, Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management (Health EDRM)​, Pandemic Prevention, Preparedness and Response (PPR), 

    2011.04
    -
    Present

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Books 【 Display / hide 】

  • Rights-based global health security through all-hazard risk management

    Huda Q., Downey E.L., Ardalan A., Nomura S., Rakesh A., Modernizing Global Health Security to Prevent, Detect, and Respond, 2023.01

    　View Summary

    Countries continuously face health-security threats posed by emerging and reemerging infectious disease hazards. Ebola, Lassa, Zika, MERS-CoV, plague, cholera, and influenza have demonstrated their pandemic potential, reiterating that investments in global health security are critical to keeping communities safe. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated that our global health security is only as strong as the weakest link in any health system. Therefore, making the world safer for everyone includes finishing the ongoing fights against infectious disease hazards such as HIV, TB, and malaria, which kill 2.7million people annually. Individual events caused by various hazards create simultaneous events that lead to concurrent emergencies resulting in compounding impacts on the lives, livelihoods and health of populations. Countries must work across the emergency management cycle with a whole-of-society approach to prepare for concurrent emergencies that strain already burdened systems to ensure the protection of their populations. This is exemplified by the protracted COVID-19 pandemic, whereby countries continue to fight different outbreaks due to novel variants of SARS-CoV-2, while experiencing simultaneous emergencies and disasters, for example, extreme heat, earthquakes, targeted violence, and cybersecurity incidents. Responding to and recovering from the complexity of these disasters presents significant challenges to countries already experiencing staggering effects of COVID-19 on human, financial, and physical resources. Understanding this burden posed by concurrent emergencies and addressing them is therefore critical to ensuring global health security.

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Papers 【 Display / hide 】

  • Indirect and direct effects of nighttime light on COVID-19 mortality using satellite image mapping approach

    Yoneoka D., Eguchi A., Nomura S., Kawashima T., Tanoue Y., Hashizume M., Suzuki M.

    Scientific Reports 14 ( 1 )  2024.12

    　View Summary

    The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of understanding environmental factors in disease transmission. This study aims to explore the spatial association between nighttime light (NTL) from satellite imagery and COVID-19 mortality. It particularly examines how NTL serves as a pragmatic proxy to estimate human interaction in illuminated nocturnal area, thereby impacting viral transmission dynamics to neighboring areas, which is defined as spillover effect. Analyzing 43,199 COVID-19 deaths from national mortality data during January 2020 and October 2022, satellite-derived NTL data, and various environmental and socio-demographic covariates, we employed the Spatial Durbin Error Model to estimate the direct and indirect effect of NTL on COVID-19 mortality. Higher NTL was initially directly linked to increased COVID-19 mortality but this association diminished over time. The spillover effect also changed: during the early 3rd wave (December 2020 – February 2021), a unit (nanoWatts/sr/cm2) increase in NTL led to a 7.9% increase in neighboring area mortality (p = 0.013). In contrast, in the later 7th wave (July – September 2022), dominated by Omicron, a unit increase in NTL resulted in an 8.9% decrease in mortality in neighboring areas (p = 0.029). The shift from a positive to a negative spillover effect indicates a change in infection dynamics during the pandemic. The study provided a novel approach to assess nighttime human activity and its influence on disease transmission, offering insights for public health strategies utilizing satellite imagery, particularly when direct data collection is impractical while the collection from space is readily available.

  • Lifestyle Differences in the Metabolic Comorbidity Score of Adult Population From South Asian Countries: A Cross-Sectional Study

    Sultana S., Nomura S., Sheng C.F., Hashizume M.

    AJPM Focus 3 ( 6 )  2024.12

    　View Summary

    Introduction: Metabolic comorbidities are involved in the development and progression of noncommunicable diseases. There is convincing evidence that lifestyles are important contributors to metabolic comorbidities. This study measured the metabolic comorbidity score of South Asian adults and identified its relationship with lifestyles. Methods: The authors studied 5 South Asian countries, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, using the World Health Organization's STEPwise approach to noncommunicable disease risk factor surveillance data between 2014 and 2019. This was a nationally representative and cross-sectional survey on participants aged 15–69 years. The sample size was 27,616. The outcome was metabolic comorbidity score, calculated on the basis of total cholesterol, fasting plasma glucose, blood pressure, and abdominal obesity. Total metabolic comorbidity score of each participant varied between 0 and 8. It was then divided into 3 ranges: the lowest range (total metabolic comorbidity score <3), medium range (total metabolic comorbidity score ≥3 and ≤5), and the highest range (total metabolic comorbidity score ≥6). On the basis of the outcome of nonparametric receiver operating characteristics analysis, the medium and the highest ranges together were considered as higher metabolic comorbidity score. The lowest range was considered as lower metabolic comorbidity score. The higher metabolic comorbidity score was coded as 1, and the lower metabolic comorbidity score was coded as 0. Thus, the outcome variable, metabolic comorbidity score, became a binary variable. Exposures included physical inactivity (<150 minutes of medium-to-vigorous physical activity/week), high daily sedentary time (≥9 hours/day), use of tobacco (present or past smoking or daily use of smokeless tobacco products), and consumption of alcohol (at least once per month in the last 1 year). Binomial logistic regression model produced the OR with corresponding 95% CIs. Results: The prevalence of higher metabolic comorbidity score was 34% among South Asian adults, 25% among the male respondents, and 41% among the female respondents. Participants who were physically inactive (OR=1.26; 95% CI= 1.17, 1.36), had high sedentary time (OR=1.24; 95% CI=1.11, 1.33), and consumed alcohol (OR=1.40; 95% CI=1.23, 1.53) showed higher metabolic comorbidity score than participants who were physically active, had low sedentary time, and did not consume alcohol respectively. However, the authors found an inverse association (OR=0.75; 95% CI=0.71, 0.81) between the use of tobacco and metabolic comorbidity score. Conclusions: One third of South Asian adults had higher metabolic comorbidity score. Physical inactivity, daily sedentary hours, and minimal alcohol consumption were associated with higher metabolic comorbidity score.

  • Global, regional, and national stillbirths at 20 weeks' gestation or longer in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

    Comfort H., McHugh T.A., Schumacher A.E., Harris A., May E.A., Paulson K.R., Gardner W.M., Fuller J.E., Frisch M.E., Taylor H.J., Leever A.T., Teply C., Verghese N.A., Alam T., Abate Y.H., Abbastabar H., ElHafeez S.A., Abdelmasseh M., Abd-Elsalam S., Abdissa D., Abdoun M., Abdulkader R.S., Abebe M., Abedi A., Abidi H., Abiodun O., Aboagye R.G., Abolhassani H., Abrigo M.R.M., Abu-Gharbieh E., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Adane M.M., Addo I.Y., Adema B.G., Adesina M.A., Adetunji C.O., Adeyinka D.A., Adnani Q.E.S., Afzal S., Agampodi S.B., Agodi A., Agyemang-Duah W., Ahinkorah B.O., Ahmad A., Ahmad D., Ahmadi A., Ahmed A., Ahmed H., Ahmed L.A., Ajami M., Akinosoglou K., Al Hasan S.M., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alanezi F.M., Alanzi T.M., Albashtawy M., Alemi S., Algammal A.M., Al-Gheethi A.A.S., Ali A., Ali L., Ali M.U., Alif S.M., Aljunid S.M., Almazan J.U., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Almidani L., Almustanyir S., Altirkawi K.A., Aly H., Aly S., Amani R., Ameyaw E.K., Amhare A.F., Amin T.T., Amiri S., Andrei C.L., Andrei T., Anoushiravani A., Ansar A., Anvari D., Anwer R., Appiah F., Arab-Zozani M., Aravkin A.Y., Areda D., Aregawi B.B., Artamonov A.A., Aryal U.R., Asemi Z., Asemu M.T., Asgedom A.A., Ashraf T., Asresie M.B., Atlaw D., Atout M.M.d.W., Atreya A., Atteraya M.S., Aujayeb A.

    The Lancet 404 ( 10466 ) 1955 - 1988 2024.11

    ISSN  01406736

    　View Summary

    Background: Stillbirth is a devastating and often avoidable adverse pregnancy outcome. Monitoring stillbirth levels and trends—in a comprehensive manner that leaves no one uncounted—is imperative for continuing progress in pregnancy loss reduction. This analysis, completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, methodically accounted for different stillbirth definitions with the aim of comprehensively estimating all stillbirths at 20 weeks or longer for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Methods: We extracted data on stillbirths from 11 412 sources across 185 of 204 countries and territories, including 234 surveys, 231 published studies, 1633 vital statistics reports, and 10 585 unique location-year combinations from vital registration systems. Our final dataset comprised 11 different definitions, which were adjusted to match two gestational age thresholds: 20 weeks or longer (reference) and 28 weeks or longer (for comparisons). We modelled the ratio of stillbirth rate to neonatal mortality rate with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression for each location and year, and then used final GBD 2021 assessments of fertility and all-cause neonatal mortality to calculate total stillbirths. Secondary analyses evaluated the number of stillbirths missed with the more restrictive gestational age definition, trends in stillbirths as a function of Socio-demographic Index, and progress in reducing stillbirths relative to neonatal deaths. Findings: In 2021, the global stillbirth rate was 23·0 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 19·7–27·2) per 1000 births (stillbirths plus livebirths) at 20 weeks' gestation or longer, compared to 16·1 (13·9–19·0) per 1000 births at 28 weeks' gestation or longer. The global neonatal mortality rate in 2021 was 17·1 (14·8–19·9) per 1000 livebirths, corresponding to 2·19 million (1·90–2·55) neonatal deaths. The estimated number of stillbirths occurring at 20 weeks' gestation or longer decreased from 5·08 million (95% UI 4·07–6·35) in 1990 to 3·04 million (2·61–3·62) in 2021, corresponding to a 39·8% (31·8–48·0) reduction, which lagged behind a global improvement in neonatal deaths of 45·6% (36·3–53·1) for the same period (down from 4·03 million [3·86–4·22] neonatal deaths in 1990). Stillbirths in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa comprised 77·4% (2·35 million of 3·04 million) of the global total, an increase from 60·3% (3·07 million of 5·08 million) in 1990. In 2021, 0·926 million (0·792–1·10) stillbirths, corresponding to 30·5% of the global total (3·04 million), occurred between 20 weeks' gestation and 28 weeks' gestation, with substantial variation at the country level. Interpretation: Despite the gradual global decline in stillbirths between 1990 and 2021, the overall number of stillbirths remains substantially high. Counting all stillbirths is paramount to progress, as nearly a third—close to 1 million in total—are left uncounted at the 28 weeks or longer threshold. Our findings draw attention to the differential progress in reducing stillbirths, with a high burden concentrated in countries with low development status. Scarce data availability and poor data quality constrain our capacity to precisely account for stillbirths in many locations. Addressing inequities in universal maternal health coverage, strengthening the quality of maternal health care, and improving the robustness of data systems are urgently needed to reduce the global burden of stillbirths. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

  • Changes in Healthcare Utilization in Japan in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Time Series Analysis of Japanese National Data Through November 2023

    Yuta Tanoue, Alton Cao, Masahide Koda, Nahoko Harada, Cyrus Ghaznavi, Shuhei Nomura

    Healthcare 12 ( 22 ) 2307 2024.11

    Accepted,  ISSN  2227-9032

    　View Summary

    Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic precipitated substantial disruptions in healthcare utilization globally. In Japan, reduced healthcare utilization during the pandemic’s early phases had been documented previously. However, few studies have investigated the impact of the pandemic’s later stages (2022–2023) on healthcare utilization rates, particularly in the Japanese context. Methods: We employed a quasi-Poisson regression model, adapted from the FluMOMO framework, to analyze temporal trends in Japanese healthcare utilization throughout the pandemic until November 2023. We estimated inpatient and outpatient volumes and hospital length of stay by bed type (general and psychiatric). Results: In general hospital beds, inpatient volumes remained significantly below pre-pandemic levels for every month until November 2023, with a reduction of 7.8 percent in 2023 compared to pre-pandemic levels. Psychiatric inpatient volumes, which had been declining before the pandemic, continued this downward trend, with the average occupancy rate decreasing by approximately 5.3% to 81.3% in 2023 compared to pre-pandemic levels. Significantly reduced outpatient volumes for both general and psychiatric care, in addition to prolonged lengths of hospital stay for psychiatric beds, were observed sporadically for several months in 2022 and 2023, persisting beyond the cessation of state of emergency and quasi-state of emergency declarations. Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic fundamentally altered healthcare utilization patterns in Japan. We observed a sustained reduction in general and psychiatric inpatient volumes relative to pre-pandemic baselines nationwide. The prolonged impact on healthcare utilization patterns, persisting beyond emergency measures, warrants continued monitoring of service delivery.

  • Changes in mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: descriptive analysis of national health statistics up to 2022

    Hirokazu Tanaka, Shuhei Nomura, Kota Katanoda

    Journal of Epidemiology (Japan Epidemiological Association)   2024.10

    Accepted,  ISSN  0917-5040

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Reviews, Commentaries, etc. 【 Display / hide 】

  • The importance of methodological vigilance: Reevaluating suicide trends in Japan post-2022

    Koda M., Harada N., Nomura S.

    Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences Reports 3 ( 2 )  2024.06

  • Correction to: Tracking Japan’s development assistance for health, 2012–2016 (Globalization and Health, (2020), 16, 1, (32), 10.1186/s12992-020-00559-2)

    Nomura S., Sakamoto H., Sugai M.K., Nakamura H., Maruyama-Sakurai K., Lee S., Ishizuka A., Shibuya K.

    Globalization and Health 17 ( 1 )  2021.12

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    Following publication of the original article [1], the authors reported a conversion error that concerned the estimated amounts of development assistance for health (DAH) for 2012–2015; when the authors converted the current prices of 2012–2015 to the constant prices of 2016 using the gross domestic product (GDP) deflator, they erroneously multiplied the current prices by the GDP deflator instead of dividing them. Please find the details of this error in this correction. Firstly, the ‘Results’ in the article’s Abstract stated that “Japan’s DAH was estimated at 1,472.94 (2012), 823.15 (2013), 832.06 (2014), 701.98 (2015), and 894.57 million USD (2016) in constant prices of 2016”, while it should state that “Japan’s DAH was estimated at 853.87 (2012), 718.16 (2013), 824.95 (2014), 873.04 (2015), and 894.57 million USD (2016) in constant prices of 2016”. Secondly, the first sentence of the article’s Results section stated that “Japan’s DAH was estimated at 1, 472.94 (2012), 823.15 (2013), 832.06 (2014), 701.98 (2015), and 894.57 million USD (2016) in constant prices of 2016”, while it should state that “Japan’s DAH was estimated at 853.87 (2012), 718.16 (2013), 824.95 (2014), 873.04 (2015), and 894.57 million USD (2016) in constant prices of 2016”. In addition to the above mentioned parts of the article, the conversion error affected Table 1, Fig. 1a, Fig. 2a, and Additional file 2, for the data of 2012–2015; please find (the corrected version of) these files in this correction. The errors have now been corrected in the original article. Furthermore, the authors would like to assure the reader that the discussions proposed in their article were based on the part of the results not related to the conversion by the GBD deflator (i.e. percentage value rather than amount) and, therefore, that the miscalculated amounts of DAH mentioned above do not affect the interpretation or conclusions of the study. The authors thank you for reading this correction, and apologize for any inconvenience caused.

  • Trends in suicide in Japan by gender during the COVID-19 pandemic, through December 2020

    Nomura S., Kawashima T., Harada N., Yoneoka D., Tanoue Y., Eguchi A., Gilmour S., Kawamura Y., Hashizume M.

    Psychiatry Research 300 2021.06

    ISSN  01651781

  • Military coup during COVID-19 pandemic and health crisis in Myanmar

    Han S.M., Lwin K.S., Swe K.T., Gilmour S., Nomura S.

    BMJ Global Health 6 ( 4 )  2021.04

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Research Projects of Competitive Funds, etc. 【 Display / hide 】

  • Reassessing and Utilizing Japan's Burden of Disease: Prefectural Analysis in the Post-COVID Era and the Challenge of New Methodologies

    2024.04
    -
    2027.03

    基盤研究(A), Principal investigator

  • with/postコロナ時代の保健医療課題への疾病負荷の活用と実証分析

    2021.04
    -
    2024.03

    MEXT,JSPS, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Principal investigator

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