Details of a Researcher

Papers - NOMURA Koji

Division display >> ／ All the affair displays 1 - 129 of about 129

"Estimating Flexible Functional Forms using Macroeconomic Data"

W. Erwin Diewert, Koji Nomura, and Chihiro Shimizu

Empirical Economics (Springer) 2025.03

Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, ISSN 03777332

The paper estimates a flexible functional form for a joint cost function using US aggregate data for the years 1970–2022. There are four outputs (consumption, government,investment and exports) and six inputs (imports, labour, machinery and equipment services, structure services, other capital services and land services). Curvature conditions on the joint cost function are imposed without destroying the flexibility of the functional form. Various elasticities of supply and demand are estimated along with technical progress bias terms for each input. When using aggregate time series data based on the System of National Accounts, the paper shows that it is probably better to estimate a joint cost function rather than a gross output function or a GDP function. The paper also shows that assuming that an aggregate production function has constant elasticities of substitution is not appropriate for the US. Finally, the importance of including land as an aggregate input is stressed.

Access to Document (DOI)

"Energy Price Surge and Widening Real Price Differentials in the Post-Pandemic Era: A Comparative Analysis of Seven Major Countries" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

KEO Discussion Paper (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University) ( 185 ) 1 - 44 2025.03

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

This paper aims to measure and analyze the changes in international price differentials in comprehensive final energy consumption accompanying the recent energy price surges across seven major countries (Japan, China, South Korea, the U.S., the UK, Germany, and France). For measuring international price differentials, we employ not only the Price Level Index (PLI) for energy but also the Real Price Level Index (Real PLI), which accounts for the price differentials of outputs produced using energy inputs. Real PLI is an indicator independent of exchange rate fluctuations. Our preliminary estimates from January 2015 to December 2024 reveal the following observations. First, the US has maintained an overwhelming advantage in real energy price differentials even before the pandemic, with the other six countries bearing energy price burdens 1.8 to 2.2 times higher than the U.S. Second, while energy prices surged similarly across major countries during the global economic recovery from the pandemic beginning in early 2021, the real price differentials relative to the U.S. also expanded in five countries (excluding China) during the same period. These differentials widened to 2.3–2.7 times at their peak and continue to persist at 2.3–2.5 times the U.S. level. Third, China has significantly suppressed energy price increases during this period, particularly for coal and electricity, maintaining its price differential with the U.S. at nearly the pre-pandemic level. As the second Trump administration pursues energy dominance by expanding the use of inexpensive fossil fuels, further widening of energy price differentials and loss of international competitiveness are inevitable if Japan and European countries continue their current decarbonization policies. The Japanese economy should consider shifting toward policies aimed at reducing these international price differentials.

Access to Document (DOI)

"How should companies face the GX (Green Transformation)?" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

SBI Research Review (SBI Financial and Economic Research Institute) 7 24 - 36 2025.02

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

政府はGX（グリーントランスフォーメーション）によって産業競争力の強化を目指すが、その実現のための前提条件は満たされていない。現在、脱炭素技術は依然として高コストのままであり、主要国間の温室効果ガス排出削減の負担格差はさらに拡大しようとしている。この四半世紀のグローバルなサプライチェーンの深化の基底には、削減負担の大きい日本や欧州から負担の小さい中国などへ生産移転が進み、世界全体のCO2排出量は増加する、カーボンリーケージ（炭素の漏れ）が存在していた。2010年代後半からは先進国の脱炭素政策の加速により、弊害はエネルギー多消費製造業に拡大している。GXの創出するグリーン需要は一部の企業に一時的な恩恵を与えるが、持続的な実需とはなりにくい。政策創出需要が減退すれば、日本はさらなる空洞化とともに、高コスト技術導入による生産性低下が不可避となる。脱炭素政策からの転換に備え、企業はバランスのある経営戦略が求められる。

"Indirect Steel Trade in the Postwar Japanese Economy" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

KEO Discussion Paper (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University) ( 184 ) 1 - 28 2025.02

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

Since the late 2010s, when the signs of a full-scale acceleration of global decarbonization policies began to emerge, steel production in Japan and Germany has declined almost linearly. While this decline is generally attributed to weak domestic demand, understanding changes in domestic demand within the steel industry, which primarily produces intermediate goods, requires identifying the sources of final demand. This study examines recent trends in steel production decline while measuring structural changes in Japan's direct steel trade and indirect trade through downstream products in the postwar economy.
In contemporary Japan, trends in domestic steel demand are heavily influenced by changes in indirect exports and imports, which are not readily observable in conventional statistics. Since the late 1980s, Japan’s indirect exports of steel have exceeded its direct exports. Additionally, the effective import dependence of steel (the sum of direct and indirect imports) has consistently increased since the late 1970s. Until around 1990, this rise was driven by an expansion in direct imports, whereas since the late 1990s, indirect imports have played a more significant role. If the acceleration of decarbonization policies further facilitates the offshore production of downstream products such as automobiles and machinery, the contraction of indirect steel exports and the expansion of indirect imports may lead to a self-reinforcing cycle of deindustrialization, exacerbating the decline in domestic production. Without considering indirect trade, such production decline risks being misinterpreted as merely a consequence of weak domestic demand.

Access to Document (DOI)

"Recent Steel Production Decline in Japan: The Interactive Effects of Carbon Neutrality Policy and Production Relocation" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Economic Statistics Research (Keizai Sangyo Toukei Kyokai) 52 ( Ⅲ ) 1 - 22 2024.12

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

本稿は、2018年末以降から現在まで続く日本の鉄鋼生産の急激な減退について、直接輸出入と下流製品に組み込まれる間接輸出入の両面から分析している。そうした生産減退は、欧州や日本を中心に脱炭素政策（カーボンニュートラル政策）が強化され、排出削減が困難であるという技術制約のある鉄鋼業においても従来以上の取り組みが求められるようになったdeep decarbonizationの模索・推進期とおおむね一致している。直近における鉄鋼の構造変化を把握する資料の利用には制約があるものの、近年の生産減退は、海外への生産移転が消極的に同意する環境規制と環境規制の強化が促す生産移転という、意図せざる相互作用とその循環構造によると評価される。現実を直視しない脱炭素政策の加速は、エネルギー多消費的な素材産業にこそ強みを持つ日本経済の産業基盤に対し深刻な影響を及ぼしている。

"Development of Industry-Level Productivity Account in Bhutan, 1990–2022"

Koji Nomura

(United Nations Development Programme) 2024.09

Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.), Single Work

This study constructs an industry-level productivity account for Bhutan's economy from 1990 to 2022, focusing on the impacts of hydropower development on economic growth and resource allocation efficiency. The analysis reveals that while hydropower has been the primary driver of Bhutan's economic growth, its contribution declined significantly post-democratization. Despite maintaining the region's highest capital investment, the economy shows a striking dichotomy between high labor productivity and low capital productivity, indicating fundamental limitations in Bhutan's hydropower-led development strategy.

"Estimating Flexible Functional Forms using Macroeconomic Data"

W. Erwin Diewert, Koji Nomura, and Chihiro Shimizu

TCER Working Paper Series (Tokyo Center for Economic Research) ( E-206 ) 2024.04

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

The paper estimates a flexible functional form for a joint cost function using US aggregate data for the years 1970-2022. There are four outputs (consumption, government, investment and exports) and six inputs (imports, labour, machinery and equipment services, structure services, other capital services and land services). Curvature conditions on the joint cost function are imposed without destroying the flexibility of the functional form. Various elasticities of supply and demand are estimated along with technical progress bias terms for each input. When using aggregate time series data based on the System of National Accounts, the paper shows that it is probably better to estimate a joint cost function rather than a gross output function or a GDP function. The paper also shows that assuming that an aggregate production function has constant elasticities of substitution is not appropriate for the US. Finally, the importance of including land as an aggregate input is stressed.

"Post-Pandemic Surges of Real Unit Energy Costs in Eight Industrialized Countries"

Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

RCGW Discussion Paper (Research Center on Global Warming, Develpment Bank of Japan) ( 70 ) 2024.03

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work, Lead author, Last author, Corresponding author

This paper develops a high-frequency indicator to assess real price and cost differentials for energy use across eight industrialized countries: China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and the U.S. The study assesses the overall energy cost burden using the real price level index (PLI) and the real unit energy cost (RUEC). The real PLI, unaffected by exchange rate fluctuations, provides a stable measure of real energy price differentials, while the RUEC indicates the challenges facing the energy transition. An analysis of RUEC trends from the first quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2023 highlights a substantial post-pandemic surge, particularly evident in Germany and Italy, where levels spiked by about 80% compared to pre-pandemic periods. This surge in Germany has coincided with a 20% decline in output within energy-intensive manufacturing by the end of 2023. Asian countries, on the other hand, managed to curb the post-pandemic RUEC surge to less than half of this level through energy subsidies and government interventions. Nonetheless, the higher RUEC levels in China and South Korea underscore the formidable challenges they encounter in propelling their energy transition initiatives forward. In Japan, about half of the limitations on the RUEC surge are attributed to reduced energy consumption resulting from the hollowing out of its industrial sector. Without a fundamental reevaluation of energy policies to ensure economic growth, the current path of the energy transition remains precarious.

"Improving the SNA: Alternative Measures of Output, Input, Income, and Productivity"

W. Erwin Diewert, Koji Nomura, and Chihiro Shimizu

Review of Income and Wealth 70 ( 4 ) 1142 - 1189 2024.01

Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted, ISSN 00346586

The current System of National Accounts (SNA) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) concept does not measure the income generated by the production sector since it includes depreciation and excludes capital gains and losses on assets used in the production sector. The paper suggests an accounting framework that measures the income generated by the production sector of an economy and implements this measure using the Augmented Productivity Database (APDB) developed by Asian Productivity Organization and Keio University for China over the years 1970–2020. Real gross and real net income generated by the Chinese production sector are decomposed into explanatory factors including TFP growth using the framework suggested by Jorgenson and Diewert and Morrison. TFP growth is further decomposed into technical progress and inefficiency components using the nonparametric approach developed by Diewert and Fox. The APDB has estimates for the price and quantity of agricultural, industrial, commercial, and residential land used in China. The paper argues that changes in land use should be treated in the same manner as inventory change and added to the alternative output measures. It turns out that Jorgensonian user costs for land are frequently negative. The problems associated with negative user costs are discussed in the paper.

Access to Document (DOI)

"A High-pressure Economy with a Sustainably Weak Yen is Desirable for the Japanese Economy" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura and Koichi Hamada

Y. Harada and Y. Iida (eds.) What is High Pressure Economy (Kinzai) 43 - 65 2023.11

Part of collection (book), Joint Work, Lead author, Corresponding author

本稿は、戦後日本の経済成長の経験を振り返りながら、1980年後半以降の為替レートが多くの年で「過度の円高」であり、そして過度の円高が導く国内経済におけるコスト削減がどのように実現されたのかを解明する。見いだされることは、1980年代半ばまで「高圧経済」によって運営されていた日本経済が「低圧経済」へと移行してしまったことであり、それによる賃金抑制と生産性停滞こそが長期にわたり日本経済を苦しめてきたデフレ圧力の源泉となってきた。日本経済の復活に向け、高圧経済の実現への転換をいかにすべきかを論じる。

"The Growing Impact of ICT Productivity via the Cost of Capital: Evidence from the U.S. and Japan"

Mun S. Ho, Koji Nomura, and Jon D. Samuels

Telecommunications Policy (Elsevier) 47 ( 9 ) 2023.10

Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted, ISSN 03085961

We identify and measure two impacts of industry-level total factor productivity (TFP) growth on aggregate price change in the U.S. and Japan. The first is a standard effect from the definition of aggregate GDP. TFP change lowers aggregate prices ceteris paribus. The second is that a change in TFP in the production of investment goods lowers the cost of capital via lower investment prices. We call this the cost-of-capital effect and formulate an expanded growth accounting framework to capture both effects. We apply it to a harmonized dataset for the two countries and find that the standard effect has fallen since the peak around 2000 due to lower TFP growth and a diminished share of GDP. However, the cost-of-capital effect has risen in importance and offsets part of this decline in the standard effect.

Access to Document (DOI)

"Measuring the Output of the Education Sector in Japan, 1955–2019" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Economic Analysis (Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office of Japan) 207 191 - 219 2023.06

Research paper (scientific journal), Single Work, Lead author, Last author, Corresponding author

Various methods have been considered in measuring non-market-produced educational services, but their proper evaluation requires the development of consistent measurements based on a common data foundation. This paper aims to approach price-quantity indices reflecting changes in the quality of education services using multiple approaches based on long-term time series data from the Education Services Production Database of Japan (ESJ) in Nomura (2020a), which is detailed crossclassification data on school education services in Japan, and the Extended Input-Output Table for Education Sector (EIOT) constructed in Nomura (2020b) based on the ESJ, covering 1955–2019. Four methods are applied: I. Unweighted output volume method, II. Output volume method, III. Input method, and IV. Hybrid method, in which the output volume method is applied to educational activities in a narrow sense and the input method to its auxiliary activities. In applying the Output volume method (II and IV), three output measures are defined: a. the number of students, b. total class hours of students, and c. total class hours of teachers. In Japan, where the number of students has been declining, applying the Output volume method based on the demand-side output indicators (a and b) is not necessarily effective as a quality-adjusted price/quantity indices. According to the measurement in this paper, IV. Hybrid method based on the supply-side output indicator (c) is evaluated as the most effective approach for capturing the quality changes from the point of view of the production account in the national accounts.

Access to Document (DOI)

"Secondary Products in Japan's Production System" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura and Kozo Miyagawa

Economic Analysis (Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office of Japan) 207 86 - 120 2023.06

Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Lead author, Last author, Corresponding author

Measuring benchmark production system, including secondary products, plays a crucial role in determining the accuracy of GDP. The purpose of this paper is to find a type of relationship between main activities (395 activities based on Japan Standard Industrial Classification) and secondary products (SDS 900 products) based on the Survey on Diversification of Sales (SDS) conducted in 201819 by the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry. Understanding the production structure of detailed secondary products by main activity enables us to examine the accuracy of the benchmark production system in the Japanese System of National Accounts (JSNA). Our examination shows that 13.0 trillion yen of the domestic production of secondary products (6.3 trillion yen in GDP or 1.2% of GDP) is likely to be omitted in the 2015 benchmark production in JSNA.

Access to Document (DOI)

"Benchmark Measurement of Wholesale and Retail Outputs in Japan: Has the Use of Economic Census Improved GDP in the JSNA?" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura and Kozo Miyagawa

Economic Analysis (Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office of Japan) 207 121 - 144 2023.06

Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Lead author, Last author, Corresponding author

The benchmark measurement of wholesale and retail outputs in Japan has been based mainly on the Census of Commerce, but since the 2011 benchmark year, it was switched to be based on the Economic Census, which was newly conducted in 2012. Our study investigates five benchmark years since 1995, the changes in the measurement framework have significantly impacted the quality of the Benchmark Input-Output Table, and the current benchmark estimates of wholesale and retail outputs are underestimated. The GDP shortfalls are estimated at 15.8 trillion yen (3.2% of the aggregate GDP) in 2011 and 11.3 trillion yen (2.1%) in 2015. This underestimation bias is a side effect of the overly decentralized nature of Japan’s statistical system. More integrated development of benchmarks and annual estimates is required in the Japanese System of National Accounts (JSNA).

Access to Document (DOI)

"How Can We Improve GDP in the JSNA?" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Economic Analysis (Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office of Japan) 207 1 - 21 2023.06

Research paper (scientific journal), Single Work, Lead author, Last author, Corresponding author

Access to Document (DOI)

"Improving the SNA: Alternative Measures of Output, Input, Income and Productivity for China"

W. Erwin Diewert, Koji Nomura, and Chihiro Shimizu

Vancouver School of Economics Discussion Paper (The University of British Columbia,) 23-04 2023.06

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

The paper defines and computes alternative measures of output, input and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) for the production sector of the Chinese economy. The current System of National Accounts (SNA) input measure that corresponds to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) does not measure the income generated by the production sector since it includes depreciation and excludes capital gains and losses on assets used in the production sector. The paper suggests an accounting framework that addresses these problems with the existing SNA gross income measure and implements a net income measure using the Augmented Productivity Database (APDB) developed by Asian Productivity Organization and Keio University for China over the years 1970-2020. Real gross and real net income generated by the Chinese production sector is decomposed into explanatory factors including TFP growth using the framework suggested by Jorgenson and Diewert and Morrison. TFP growth is further decomposed into technical progress and inefficiency components using the nonparametric approach developed by Diewert and Fox. The APDB has estimates for the price and quantity of agricultural, industrial, commercial and residential land used in China. The paper argues that changes in land use should be treated in the same manner as inventory change and added to the alternative output measures. It turns out that Jorgensonian user costs for land are frequently negative. The problems associated with negative user costs are discussed in the paper.

"The Over-Valued Yen and the Low-Pressure Economy Repressed Productivity in Japan"

Koichi Hamada and Koji Nomura

International Journal of Economics and Finance (Canadian Center of Science and Education) 15 ( 6 ) 1 - 13 2023.04

Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted, ISSN 1916-971X

In the post-war economy of Japan, the high-pressure economy as defined by Okun and Yellen maintained its real exchange rate relatively low and kept the economy mildly inflationary. Not only did it encourage short-term employment but it also fostered a long-term productivity trend as measured by its total factor productivity (TFP). International pressure for a stronger yen after the Plaza Accord, coupled with the restrictive monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, created a large exchange rate gap and accordingly, the extreme Japan-U.S. output price gap, referred to as the price level index (PLI), in 1995. It further caused the squeeze of domestic wages and led to the deflationary pressure that plagued the Japanese economy for decades. In our opinion, the exchange rate also depressed domestic capital accumulation caused by the internationally low nominal rate of return on capital and that situation caused the TFP stagnation in Japan.

Access to Document (DOI)

"Energy Input and Economic Growth: What Can We Learn from the Japanese Economic Experiences?" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Economic Analysis (Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office of Japan) 206 24 - 53 2023.03

Research paper (scientific journal), Single Work

What can we learn from the experiences of sustained energy productivity improvement (EPI) in the economic growth and structural change of the postwar Japanese economy to guide ap-propriate energy and environmental policies? This paper aims to derive implications for policy by discussing the structural factors contained within the macro-observed EPI gross indicators, es-pecially the factors behind the acceleration of the EPI since the late 2000s. The measurements in this paper show that there has been no policy-driven acceleration in the sustained realization of the EPI in the postwar Japanese economy, but rather a significant diminution in the speed of improvement over the past half-century until the late 2000s. The acceleration of the EPI in recent years has been accompanied by a shift of energy-intensive goods to overseas production, and domestic industries that are required to curb consumption have been forced to lower their capital and labor productivity. The evaluation, including price changes, shows that the real unit energy cost facing the Japanese economy rose sharply in 2021–22, increasing its vulnerability to energy price hikes. In an energy transition that will take decades, it is necessary to ensure economic efficiency during the transition period without obsessing over poor domestic emission reductions.

"Development of High-Frequency Indicators of Real Unit Energy Cost in Japan” (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

RCGW Discussion Paper (Research Center of Global Warming, Research Institute of Capital Formation, Development Bank of Japan) ( 68 ) 2023.03

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work, Lead author, Corresponding author

While carbon neutrality toward 2050 may provide growth opportunities for Japanese companies with advantages in energy-saving and other technologies, the impact of the increased cost burden on the competitiveness of the Japanese economy must be carefully monitored during the long-term transition process. In a Japanese economy that has had to face relatively high energy prices for a century and boasts a highly energy-efficient industrial structure, the costs of additional energy savings have already multiplied significantly. In addition, after more than a decade of policy support by the Feed-in Tariff (FIT) program, the expansion of renewable electricity has significantly increased the price of electricity in Japan, and the burden on households and industry has grown to several times what was assumed when the FIT program was introduced in 2012. It is increasingly important to observe the impact of energy price hikes on Japanese industry and households, as well as the cost burdens required for the energy transition, in near-real time. This paper introduces the development of monthly estimates of the Real Unit Energy Cost (RUEC) and its components, an indicator that comprehensively assesses the resilience of the domestic economy to energy price hikes, and reports preliminary figures through January 2023, the most recent month available.

"Half a Century of Experience with Labor Input and Productivity Growths in the Vietnamese Economy" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Okayama Economic Review (Economic Association of Okayama University) 54 ( 3 ) 37 - 59 2023.03

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

This paper aims to analyze changes in productivity over a half-century by measuring quality-adjusted labor input (QALI) in the Vietnamese economy for the period 1970–2020. The biggest barrier to the construction of productivity account for the Vietnamese economy is that compensation of employees (COE) is not estimated in the Vietnamese System of National Accounts (VSNA). The time-series estimates on hours worked and hourly wage rates, which are cross-classified by gender, education, age, and employment status, are constructed based on fragmentary available data in Vietnam. The constructed data enables to development of not only the QALI but also the COE and labor share with a micro foundation. In August 2022, the VSNA based on the 2008 SNA was released, resulting in a significant upward revision of GDP. Based on the new VSNA, which extends back to 1970 in this paper, the labor quality improvement has accelerated from 0.6% per year in 1970–2000 to 2.0% per year in 2000–20 (mainly through improvements in education). This acceleration explained 65% of the increase in QALI and 14% of the increase in labor productivity over the same period. This paper also finds that total factor productivity in the Vietnamese economy started to improve later than in the previous analysis, becoming more pronounced in the second half of the 2010s.

Access to Document (DOI)

"Industry Origins of Energy Productivity Improvement"

Koji Nomura

Energy Productivity and Economic Growth (Springer) 19 - 80 2023.01

Part of collection (book), Single Work

This chapter measures the industry origins of the sustained energy productivity improvement (EPI) in postwar Japan from 1955 to 2019 by explicitly considering changes in energy quality, such as the progress of electrification, and changes in industrial structure. The golden age of energy productivity according to its gross measure, which is a simple economy-wide indicator, was seen in Period-II (post-oil crisis: 1973–1990) when the annual growth rate of EPI accelerated to 2.7% from 1.3% in the preceding Period-I (high economic growth: 1955–1973). However, the adjusted EPI peaked in Period-I when energy quality and industrial structure changes are controlled (1.5%). It then decelerated to 1.4% in Period-II and almost zero in Period-III (post-bubble economy: 1990–2008). In Period-IV (post-global financial crisis: 2008–2019), the adjusted EPI recovered to 0.5%, largely because of changes in composition at the product level. Under certain assumptions, the baseline estimate of future gross EPI is expected to be 1.0% per annum, much lower than the policy target of 2.5% set by the Japanese government in 2021.

Access to Document (DOI)

"Toward the Energy Transition of Japan"

Koji Nomura

Energy Productivity and Economic Growth (Springer) 209 - 246 2023.01

Part of collection (book), Single Work

Transitioning to carbon neutrality in Japan by 2050 is a process that will take decades, and it will be more difficult if economic efficiency deteriorates in the process. Examining the discrepancy between past projections of greenhouse-gas emission reduction targets and their impact on economic growth and the actual economy realized can provide useful insights for future feasibility studies. In addition, the observed facts measured in the chapters of this book from the experience of the Japanese economic growth serve as lessons, which show three forms in which economic growth and emission reductions are compatible. While summarizing the prospects of international price differentials for electricity and renewable energy, this chapter discusses the problems of Japan’s current energy policy and the possibility of policy changes toward an energy transition.

Access to Document (DOI)

"Indirect Import of Electricity"

Koji Nomura

Energy Productivity and Economic Growth (Springer) 177 - 207 2023.01

Part of collection (book), Single Work

Even if Japan cannot import electricity directly, it can be understood as indirectly importing electricity by reducing domestic production of goods that consume large amounts of electricity and switching to imports. This chapter constructs Effective Import Dependency (EID) as an indicator of indirect dependence on electricity imports and measures the electricity EID from 1960 to 2018 for the Japanese economy based on an input–output analysis framework. The measurements show three major transition periods: a rise after the first oil shock, a fall from the 1980s, and a re-rise from the mid-1990s. In particular, during the recent re-rise period, the economy-wide electricity EID doubled from 10.3% in 1995 to 22.8% in 2018. The Japanese government has attributed the recent decline in domestic electricity demand to the decoupling of economic growth and energy consumption resulting from successful energy conservation policy, and it is increasingly confident about further tightening regulations. However, the measurements in this chapter show that the effect of increased electricity imported indirectly, which has not been directly observed, explains about 30% of the recent slump in domestic electricity demand.

Access to Document (DOI)

"Energy Productivity and Overall Efficiency"

Koji Nomura

Energy Productivity and Economic Growth (Springer) 121 - 176 2023.01

Part of collection (book), Single Work

This chapter analyzes the cyclical relationship between energy productivity improvement (EPI) and total factor productivity growth (TFPG). The first direction of the cycle is from TFPG to EPI. In Japan’s economic growth, technological changes that require more energy input per labor unit were robustly observed. Although this directly depressed energy productivity, it contributed to EPI by increasing labor productivity and TFP, offsetting the negative effect. This chapter formulates an EPI consisting of an energy-saving factor through an increase in the capital-energy ratio, an energy-enhancing factor through a decline in the labor-energy ratio, and an overall-efficiency factor as TFPG. The measurement shows that the most significant factor in achieving sustainable EPI in the postwar Japanese economy was TFPG, not the energy-saving factor. The second direction of the cycle is from EPI to TFPG. Since the 1990s, further energy-saving investment led to a significant decline in capital productivity, and TFPG tended to turn negative in some energy-intensive industries. In addition, EPI in the service sector has been achieved while reducing energy use per labor unit, which has been at the expense of labor productivity and TFPG. These suggest the difficulty of balancing the pursuit of EPI with the economy’s overall efficiency.

Access to Document (DOI)

"Real Energy Cost"

Koji Nomura

Energy Productivity and Economic Growth (Springer) 81 - 120 2023.01

Part of collection (book), Single Work

This chapter assesses the economic resilience of the Japanese economy to rising energy prices by measuring the real unit energy cost (RUEC). The Japan-U.S. level comparison shows that the RUEC gap has been widening since the U.S. shale revolution and, in recent years, has increased to a level 39% higher than the U.S., approaching the peak in the 1960s. The factors behind this are the narrowing of the energy productivity gap (Japan’s advantage has been halved over the past two decades) and the widening of the real energy price gap. The turning point when Japan’s RUEC started to rise was in the mid-1990s. Since then, real energy price growth has increased from 0.8% on average in 1973–1995, which included two oil shocks, to 1.7% in 1995–2019. During this period, the biggest factor in the acceleration of real energy prices was the 15-year-long decline in nominal wages from 1997.

Access to Document (DOI)

"Energy and Economic Growth"

Koji Nomura

Energy Productivity and Economic Growth (Springer) 1 - 18 2023.01

Part of collection (book), Single Work

This chapter provides an overview of the changes in energy consumption and energy productivity throughout Japan’s economic growth over the 135 years from 1885 to 2019. During this observation period, the Japanese economy succeeded in sustainably improving labor productivity, except for times of war and temporary recession periods. However, energy productivity has followed a U-shaped curve, declining until World War II and then moving on a track of steady improvement with repeated acceleration and deceleration. The sustained improvement in energy productivity in postwar Japan includes the effects of structural changes, such as rapid heavy and chemical industrialization, high energy prices caused by oil shocks, and prolonged economic stagnation. This chapter also provides an overview of each chapter’s focus and methodological framework and explains the structure of the productivity account developed in this book to analyze the sources of energy productivity changes.

Access to Document (DOI)

"Can Energy Saving be Accelerated? -Postwar Japanese Industrial Experience and Future Prospects" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Economic Statistics Research (Keizai Sangyo Toukei Kyokai) 50 ( Ⅲ ) 1 - 46 2022.12

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

近年のエネルギー価格の高騰や2050年のカーボンニュートラル目標を受け、省エネへの期待が再び高まっている。世界金融危機後の日本経済では電力需要が減少し、エネルギー生産性も改善したかようにみえる。本稿はその持続可能性を検討するため、1955年から2019年までの長期生産性勘定とそれに整合して構築されたエネルギー勘定に基づき、エネルギー生産性変化の構造的な要因を分析することを目的としている。簡易に観察されるマクロ指標である（グロスの）エネルギー生産性改善は、高度経済を実現した第I期（1955–73年）の年率1.3%から、オイルショック後の第II期（1973–90年）には2.7%へと大きく加速した。将来、政府はその再現を期待するが、エネルギー品質や産業構造の変化を統御した本稿での測定によれば、真のエネルギー生産性改善のピークはむしろ第I期（年率1.4%）にあり、第II期には1.3%へと、そして経済成長が低迷した第III期（ポストバブル経済期：1990–2008年）ではほぼゼロにまで落ち込んでいる。世界金融危機後の第IV期（2008–19年）では再び年率0.5%へと回復したが、それも製品レベルでの構成変化（海外への生産シフト）に大きく依存しており、技術的な改善による効果は限定的である。将来展望として、一定の仮定に基づくエネルギー生産性改善のスピードとしての本稿の試算では、（電力化や産業構造変化などの影響を含めた）グロス指標によっても年率1.0%ほどであり、政府目標の半分にも満たない。適切な政策運営のためには、そうした目標と現実との乖離がさらなる産業空洞化によって埋められることのないよう、エネルギー消費削減が実現される構造的要因の把握が求められる。

"Measuring Public Civil Engineering Output Prices Based on Bidding Data in Japan, 1989–2021" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura and Sho Inaba

KEO Discussion Paper (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University) ( 173 ) 1 - 34 2022.10

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work, Lead author, Last author, Corresponding author

This paper develops the monthly estimates on the successful bid rate based on the Japanese bidding data from 1989, when the competitive bidding system was introduced, to 2021. Using these estimates, we evaluate revisions to the input-cost-type output price used in the Japanese system of national accounts. As for the annual price index for public civil enginerring as a whole, the growth of the current price index based on the input method (“Construction Cost Deflators”) has increased by 36.3% over the entire measurement period of this paper (33 years), while the growth of price index adjusted for bidding rate is 26.9%. It suggests that the promotion of competition through the introduction of the bidding system contributed to Japan's long-term decline in the prices of public civil engineering. In particular, the deviation has become larger due to the impact of intensified price competition since the mid-2000s. Based on the adjusted price index measured in this paper, the current estimate of real net capital stock of the entire public civil engineering is assessed to be underestimated by 3.5% (19.0 trillion yen at the current price) as of the end of 2020.

Access to Document (DOI)

"Alternative Measures for Chinese Productivity Growth"

Erwin Diewert, Koji Nomura and Chihiro Shimizu

The 7th WorldKLEMS Conference, Manchester 2022.10

Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.), Joint Work

The paper constructs estimates of China’s Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth over the period 1970-2020 using primarily the Asian Productivity Organization (APO) data base augmented by additional data developed by Koji Nomura at Keio University. China's TFP growth will be measured using the following methods: (i) the exact index number method developed by Jorgenson (and his coworkers) and Diewert and Morrison and (ii) a nonparametric method developed by Diewert and Fox. Economy wide estimates of rates of return on assets will also be calculated. Estimates for quality adjusted labour developed by Nomura will be used as well as estimates for missing inputs such as Land. Finally, instead of using GDP as the output concept, alternative estimates of TFP growth using net output as the output concept will be provided. The alternative measure is useful in explaining Chinese real income growth.

"Effective Rates of Protection in the U.S. and Japanese Industries" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Economic Statistics Research (Keizai Sangyo Toukei Kyokai) 48 ( Ⅲ ) 16 - 46 2020.12

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

本稿は日米両国における商品別輸入相手国別関税マトリックス（関税額および従価税換算関税率）を構築し、日米国際産業連関表のフレームワークのもとで関税による産業保護率の日米格差を測定することを目的としている。関税による産業保護率の指標として、産業の生産物に対する名目保護率、中間投入される輸入財（輸入中間財）に課される関税を考慮した有効保護率とともに、本稿では間接的な輸入中間財の投入に課される関税を考慮した有効保護率を定義し、2011年、2015年および2018年を対象とした測定をおこなう。直接間接的な輸入中間財に課される関税を考慮すれば、食料品や農林水産品などに傾斜して保護的となる日本の関税体系は、自動車製造業や機械製造業などでは間接効果を含んだ有効保護率が負値となることが示される。製造業における競争力棄損を回避するためには、ネットの有効保護率として非保護効果が上回るような現行関税体系の見直しが求められる。

"Measurement of Labor Shares and Quality-adjusted Labor Inputs in Vietnam, 1970–2018"

Koji Nomura and Hiroshi Shirane

KEO Discussion Paper (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University) ( 156 ) 1 - 32 2020.12

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work, Lead author, Last author, Corresponding author

One of the largest obstacles to developing a productivity account in Vietnam is the lack of the estimate on compensations of employees in the System of National Accounts. This paper constructs the data for Vietnam on hours worked by type of workers, which are cross classified by gender, education attainment, age, and employment status, and on hourly wages in each type of labor for the period 1970–2018. The data constructed in this paper is used to estimate labor share at the aggregate level, which has a micro foundation, and to develop the measure of the quality-adjusted labor input. Our estimates show that the improvement in labor quality was very modest at an annual rate of 0.1% from 1970 to 2000, but accelerated to an average of 1.9% per year from 2000 to 2018, accounting for 57.9% of the growth of quality-adjusted labor input of 3.3%.

Access to Document (DOI)

"Measurement of Effective Import Dependency of Electricity” (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

RCGW Discussion Paper (Research Center of Global Warming, Research Institute of Capital Formation, Development Bank of Japan) ( 65 ) 2020.09

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

日本では直接的な電力輸入は無くとも、電力多消費的な最終財や中間財の国内生産を縮小し輸入へと切り替えることでは、間接的に電力を輸入しているものと解される。本稿では、間接的な電力輸入への依存度を示す指標として、最終需要構造や国際分業を反映した実効輸入依存度（Effective Import Dependency：EID）を構築し、日本経済における電力EIDの変化を測定する。1960年から2015年までの長期にわたる観察期間において、日本経済の電力EIDには、第一次オイルショック後の上昇期、1980年代からの低下期、そして1990年代半ばからの再上昇期という大きく三つの変動期が見いだされる。とくに近年の再上昇期では、一国経済の電力EIDは1995年の10.3%から2015年には21.9%へと倍増しており、近年の国内電力需要における低迷の背景には、間接的な電力輸入の拡大があったことを示唆している。省エネ政策による規制強化は、間接輸入の拡大により見かけ上の電力・エネルギー消費量の国内削減を実現しようとも、さらなる産業空洞化と低成長をもたらすことが危惧される。

"Measurement of Price, Quantity, and Quality of Education Service in Japan – Output Volume Method, Input Method, Hybrid Method, and Hedonic Method" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

New ESRI Working Paper (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Cabinet Office) ( 51 ) 2020.08

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

本稿は、日本の国民経済計算体系（JSNA）における教育の質の変化を反映した価格・数量指数の測定のため、学校教育サービスに関するクロス分類データとして構築された「教育サービス産出データベース」（ESJ）および「教育分析用拡張産業連関表（EIOT）」の長期時系列推計値に基づき、I.単純産出数量法、II.産出数量法、III.投入法、IV.ハイブリッド法、そしてV.ヘドニック法の体系的な適用をおこなう。教育サービスの産出量を定義する観察可能な産出指標としては、教育サービスの消費者としての視点から生徒数（欠席率の変化を考慮済み）および総生徒授業時間、またその生産者としての視点から総教員授業時間の3つが定義され、上記の方法論に基づく1955年から2017年までの日本の教育サービス産出における価格・数量指数の推計値により、望ましい測定論に関する検討をおこなう。
産出数量法および投入法による価格・数量指数の推計値によっては、教育サービスの品質変化に関する指標として、間接品質指数が定義される。それはESJで教育サービスに関する品質指標として直接に観察される複数の直接品質指数、またV.ヘドニック法の適用によってそれらが集計された直接品質指数との比較によって、長期にわたる教育サービスの品質変化に関する測定値の検討がおこなわれる。公立小・中学校におけるV.ヘドニック法の適用によれば、品質調整済みの価格・数量指数としての推計値は、長期傾向としてIV.ハイブリッド法による推計値に類似したものとなっている。IV.ハイブリッド法は、狭義の教育活動（a1）のみに産出数量法、その補助的活動（a2）には投入法を適用したものであり、III.投入法に代わりうる有効なアプローチであると評価される。

"Toward Improvement of Input Method for Measuring Education Services in JSNA – Construction of Extended Input-Output Table for Education Services (EIOT) in 1955–2017" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

New ESRI Working Paper (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Cabinet Office) ( 50 ) 2020.08

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

本稿は教育部門分析用拡張産業連関表（Extended Input-Output Table for Education Service：EIOT）の長期時系列表（1955–2017年を対象とした名目・実質表）を構築し、日本の国民経済計算（JSNA）における教育サービス産出における推計精度を検討しながら、現行の投入法による測定の精度改善の方向性を探ることを目的としている。構築されるEIOTは、その行部門（商品分類）を産業連関表基本表における基本分類と対応しながら、列部門として基本表における教育部門（国公立および私立の二部門）を詳細な教育主体別へと細分化した「主体別EIOT」、また教育主体によって提供される複合的なサービス生産を活動別に再定義した「スキル別EIOT」の二種類からなる。
非市場産出である教育サービス生産は、国公私立といった異なる制度部門によって提供され、狭義の教育サービスに加えて給食や研究活動など複合的な活動を含むものであり、その測定はSNAとしての統計概念に基づく複雑なプロセスに基づく。本稿での検討によれば、現行JSNAにおける教育サービスの国内生産額の推計値は1980年代より継続的に2–3兆円の過小に評価されている可能性が指摘される。それは基本表におけるベンチマーク推計値における時系列的な不安定性にも起因している。また1994年以降では、現行JSNA推計では付加価値価格指数の低下が大きく、教育サービス生産の成長率を過大評価する傾向にあると考えられる。本稿での主体的およびスキル別EIOTにおける投入法の適用と教育サービスの構造変化に関する多面的な評価は、教育サービス産出の測定法として投入法というアプローチの有効性を再評価させる。

"Development of Education Services Production Database of Japan (ESJ), 1955–2017" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

New ESRI Working Paper (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Cabinet Office) ( 49 ) 2020.08

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

本稿は、日本の国民経済計算体系におけるより望ましい教育サービスの産出指標を開発するため、詳細に定義された学校教育サービスにおける時系列比較可能なデータとして「教育サービス産出データベース」（Education Services Production Database of Japan：ESJ）を設計し、1955年から2017年におけるデータ構築について報告する。ESJは大きく、産出データ（生徒数・授業時間など）、教育サービスの生産側における品質データ（教員数、職員数、学級数、土地や資本設備など）、支出データ、そして加工統計として開発されるSNA概念データという4つのブロックからなる。各ブロックに属するすべてのデータ系列は、教育水準（e）×課程（p）×経営組織（o）のクロス分類ごとに定義され、さらに小中学校や高等学校では地域（r）別に、大学では学科（s）別の細分類を持つ。日本のすべての学校教育サービスは3,426分類（基礎分類）へと格付けられる。
ESJでは、一次統計として直接観察される在学者数などのデータより、長期欠席者数や平均授業時間を考慮した「総生徒授業時間」（すべての生徒が一年間に受けた総授業時間）や「総教員授業時間」（すべての教員が一年間に提供した総授業時間）など、加工統計としての教育サービスの産出指標も構築される。また基礎分類レベルでの教育サービスごとに、学校教育の生産活動は1.（狭義の）教育活動、2.補助活動、3.研究開発（R&D）活動、4.給食活動に区分して定義され、学校会計によっては直接的に得られない資本ストックおよび名目固定資本減耗も推計されるなど、SNA概念として望ましい教育サービスの国内生産額が推計される。

"Economic Evaluation of Society 5.0 for SDGs" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Research Report of the 21st Century Public Policy Institute (The 21st Century Public Policy Institute) 1 - 67 2020.07

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

"How Can Measurement of Benchmark Production Systems be Improved? – The Structure of Secondary Products by Main Activity based on the Survey on Diversification of Sales in Japan" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

RIETI Discussion Paper (The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)) 20-J-008 2020.02

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

Measuring benchmark production systems plays a crucial role in determining the accuracy of GDP statistics. The purpose of this paper is to find a type of relationship between main activities (JSIC 395 activities) and secondary products (SDS 900 products), based on the newly designed Survey on Diversification of Sales (SDS) in Japan. Cataloging the production structure of detailed secondary products by main activity enables the examination of the accuracy of the benchmark production system. According to our examination, 14.9 trillion yen (about 7.7 trillion yen in terms of GDP) of the domestic production value of secondary products may be missing in the current supply table in the 2015 benchmark year.

"Wholesale and Retail Service Price Indices in Japan: Retrospective Measurement from 1955" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

RIETI Discussion Paper (The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)) 20-J-007 2020.02

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

This paper develops a wholesale and retail service production database of Japan (WRJ) at a level subdivided into 5,740 categories for wholesale and 6,888 categories for retail, in order to re-examine the price-quantity breakdown of production values of wholesale and retail services and to revise the productivity account for commercial industry. According to our examinations based on WRJ, the current estimate on the service price of commerce in the Japanese system of national accounts (JSNA) is underestimated for 1980–2005. And conversely, it is highly likely that it is overestimated for 2005–17, in which all WRJ estimates based on different assumptions declined and the KLEMS aggregate input price in commercial industry also declined, whereas only the current JSNA estimate is increasing. It suggests that during this period, the growth rate of total factor productivity in commerce industry is underestimated by 0.3% per annum.

"Benchmark 2011 Integrated Estimates of the Japan-US Price-level Index for Industry Outputs"

Koji Nomura, Kozo Miyagawa, and Jon D. Samuels

Measuring Economic Growth and Productivity: Foundations, KLEMS Production Models, and Extensions (Academic Press) 251 - 281 2019.11

© 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. This paper provides new benchmark estimates of industry-level price differentials between Japan and the United States for 2011 based on a bilateral price accounting model anchored to the Japan-US input-output tables. We apply the model to translate available demand-side data on purchaser's price purchasing power parities (PPPs) for final uses (e.g., the Eurostat-OECD PPPs) and intermediate uses (e.g., the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry [METI] survey) to unmeasured producer's price PPPs for industry output. These PPPs allow us to produce price-level indexes at the industry level, which we use to assess price competitiveness between Japan and the United States We conclude that price competitiveness of Japanese service industries has considerably improved in the more recent time period. However, Japanese producers have a significant price disadvantage in comparison to their US counterparts in electricity and gas supply, and most of the agricultural producing industries.

Access to Document (DOI)

"Energy Productivity Improvement and Overall Efficiency" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

RCGW Discussion Paper (Research Center of Global Warming, Research Institute of Capital Formation, Development Bank of Japan) ( 64 ) 2019.09

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

「環境と成長の好循環」の実現のため、戦後日本経済の経験から何を学ぶことができるだろうか。本稿は、エネルギー消費分析用に拡張された日本経済の産業別生産性統計（1955–2016年）に基づき、エネルギー生産性の改善（energy productivity imporovment: EPI）と全体効率としての全要素生産性（total factor productivity: TFP）の測定を通じて、生産効率の観点から環境（EPI）と経済（TFP）との循環構造を分析することを目的としている。第一の方向性は、経済から環境である。EPIの実現は、エネルギー投入一単位あたりの資本・労働投入、そしてTFPによる寄与度へと分解される。経済成長のプロセスにおいては、同量の生産を実現するために、一単位の労働がより多くのエネルギー投入を必要とするような技術変化（労働浅化）がほぼ一貫して見いだされる。労働浅化は、労働から資本への代替、そして資本を稼働させるためのエネルギー消費の拡大という、二つの技術変化の結果として捉えられる。それは直接的にはEPIを低迷させるが、労働生産性とTFPを上昇させ、労働浅化によるマイナス効果を相殺してEPIに寄与している。戦後日本経済の長期EPIの実現は、全体効率の改善としてのTFP成長による貢献がもっとも大きな要因であり、省エネ投資による貢献を上回っている。
第二の方向性は、環境から経済である。TFP成長は、労働生産性、資本生産性、そしてエネルギー生産性変化の総合効果として解される。オイルショック後にはエネルギー多消費産業を中心として高いEPIが実現したものの、安価に利用可能な省エネ技術が制約されていく中で、その後の省エネ投資によっては資本生産性が大きく低下し、TFP成長がマイナスへと転じる傾向が見いだされる。また近年のサービス業では、労働浅化の逆行によってEPIが実現しており、それは労働生産性とTFPの成長を犠牲とするものである。こうした傾向は、EPIという一面の効率性改善の探求が、全体的な生産効率の改善と両立することの難しさを示唆している。

"Increasing Vulnerability of the Japanese Economy to Energy Price Fluctuations" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

RCGW Discussion Paper (Research Center of Global Warming, Research Institute of Capital Formation, Development Bank of Japan) ( 63 ) 2019.08

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

本稿は、日本経済における実質単位エネルギーコスト（RUEC）とその日米格差の測定によって、エネルギー価格高騰による経済的な耐性を評価することを目的としている。日米比較によれば、日米RUEC格差は米国のシェール革命以降に急速に拡大しており、近年では米国に比して60%上回る水準にまで拡大している。それは戦後のピークに達する水準であり、エネルギー価格変動に対する日本経済の脆弱性が相対的に高まっていることを示している。日米RUEC格差の拡大要因は、エネルギー生産性格差の縮小と実質エネルギー価格差の拡大の両面によっている。近年、米国のエネルギー生産性の改善率は高く、日本の優位性はこの20年間で半減している。
日本経済における長期的な傾向をみれば、RUECが上昇へと転じた転換点は1990年代半ばである。オイルショック後に強化されたエネルギー価格高騰に対する耐性は、この20年間に再び脆弱化している。第一の要因は、おもに賃金率低下によって誘導されたデフレ型の実質エネルギー価格の上昇である。1990年代半ば以降、二度のオイルショックを含む期間（1973–1995年）に比して、名目エネルギー価格の上昇率は1/3ほどに縮小されたが、実質エネルギー価格の上昇率としては年率1.0%から1.5%へとむしろ高まっている。デフレ型のRUEC上昇は、エネルギー価格高騰に対する耐性の脆弱化がエネルギー多消費産業のみではなく、より広範な産業活動へ及ぶことを意味している。第二の要因は、エネルギー生産性改善における低迷である。実質エネルギー価格上昇が逓増傾向にありながらも、安価に利用可能な省エネ技術は限られたものとなり、エネルギー生産性の改善率は逓減している。
長期化するデフレ経済は、エネルギー価格高騰に対する脆弱性も増大させてきた。日本経済におけるエネルギー価格高騰への耐性強化のためには、再エネ推進のためのコスト拡大の抑制、原子力や石炭利用を含めた適切なエネルギーミックスの実現とともに、労働生産性の改善を通じた賃金上昇や高付加価値化など、デフレ経済からの脱却のための経済政策が求められる。

"Benchmark 2011 Integrated Estimates of the Japan-U.S. Price Level Index for Industry Outputs"

Koji Nomura, Kozo Miyagawa, and Jon D. Samuels

BEA Working Paper (Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Department of Commerce) 2018.12

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

This paper provides new benchmark estimates of industry-level price differentials between Japan and the U.S. for 2011 based on a bilateral price accounting model anchored to the Japan-US input-output tables. We apply the model to translate available demand-side data on purchaser’s price PPPs for final uses (e.g. the Eurostat-OECD PPPs) and intermediate uses (e.g. the METI survey) to unmeasured producer’s price PPPs for industry output. These PPPs allow us to produce price level indexes at the industry level, which we use to assess price competitiveness between Japan and the U.S. Under the nominal exchange rate of 110.6 yen per dollar as of the beginning of July 2018, we estimate that producers in Japan have a pricing advantage in 66 of 106 industries in the manufacturing sector, and in 24 of 50 industries in the service sector. We conclude that price competitiveness of Japanese service industries has considerably improved in the more recent time period. However, Japanese producers have a significant price disadvantage in comparison to their U.S. counterparts in electricity and gas supply, and most of the agricultural producing industries.

"Measurement of Depreciation Rates using Microdata from Disposal Survey of Japan"

Koji Nomura and Yutaka Suga

The 35th IARIW General Conference, Copenhagen, Denmark 2018.08

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work, Lead author, Last author, Corresponding author

This paper estimates the asset service lives (ASL), the rates of depreciation, and the declining balance rates (DBR) based on a finely-defined classification of assets, which distinguishes 369 asset types, using data on ASL and aged-prices of disposed assets collected in the Survey on Capital Expenditures and Disposals from 2006 to 2014 in Japan. This survey collected 1,111,913 data of disposed assets from business accounts of private corporations, of which 936,861 are defined as retired assets acquired new and are used to estimate the survival profiles, and of which 84,291 are defined as sold assets for continued uses with positive prices are used to estimate the age-price profiles.
The Japan’s rates of geometric depreciation estimated in this study are broadly similar to the estimates at Statistics Canada (Baldwin, Liu, and Tanguay, 2015), but considerably higher than those used in the U.S. BEA (2013), e.g. 7.5%, 7.3%, and 3.2%, respectively, for industrial building construction, 7.6%, 6.7%, and 2.5% for office buildings, 29.1%, 27.9%, and 19.3% for automobiles, 24.4%, 24.9%, and 11.2% for telecommunication equipment, and 17.9%, 17.2%, and 11.0% for industrial machinery. The sources in these gaps are due to the shorter ASL and the higher DBR in Japan and Canada, compared to the U.S. The exceptional asset is computers. Japan’s rate of depreciation for computers is estimated as 29.6%, compared to 43.1% in Canada and 33.9% in the U.S. The gap is originated from much longer ASL observed in Japan (8.0 years on average), compared to Canada (4.9 years).

"Rebalancing Benchmark Input-Output Production System by Revision in Margin Matrix"

Koji Nomura and Kozo Miyagawa

Economic Statistics Research (Keizai Sangyo Toukei Kyokai) 46 ( I ) 29 - 55 2018.06

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

産業連関表（基本表）における卸・小売マージンは、日本の国民経済計算体系（JSNA）での商業生産額のベンチマーク推計値となるとともに、商品別マージン率はコモディティフローへと組み込まれ、GDP統計の精度に対して直接・間接的に大きな影響を与えている。野村・宮川・新井（2017）では産業連関表における商業マージン額について、その推計における諸課題を検討し、とくにはじめての「経済センサス–活動調査」に基づく2011年表において大幅な過小推計にあることを指摘している。本稿では、その再検討とともに基本分類レベルでのマージン表の改訂値を求め、産業連関体系のリバランスを通じてGDPにあたえる時系列的な影響の評価をおこなう。本稿での推計結果によれば、商業マージンの過小推計バイアスによるGDPとしての欠落は1995年では4.8兆円、2000年5.1兆円、2005年6.6兆円であり、2011年では25.6兆円と評価される。そうした改訂による名目GDP成長率としての影響は、2000年代半ばまでは年率0.1%ポイント未満と軽微であるが、2005–2011年では年率0.6%ポイントほど（年平均マイナス1.07%成長からマイナス0.44%成長へ）の上方改訂となる。現行のGDP統計に内在する過小推計バイアスは、かなり蓋然性が高いと考えられる諸仮定のもとで導かれたものであり、2011年基準JSNAにおけるGDP統計の再検討が求められよう。

"Progress on Measuring the Industry Origins of the Japan-U.S. Productivity Gap"

Dale W. Jorgenson, Koji Nomura, and Jon D. Samuels

Fifth World KLEMS Conference, Harvard University 2018.06

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

This paper reports recent progress in measuring price level indices and productivity gaps for Japanese and U.S. industries between 1955 and 2015. Price competitiveness is driven mainly by monetary policies in the two countries, but productivity gaps reflect relative progress in technology at the industry level. Using our new measure of the price level, we find that Japan lost price competitiveness with the U.S. in the late 1980’s, following the Plaza Accord of 1985. Japan did not regain price competitiveness until 2015 in response to rapid depreciation of the Japanese yen by the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy of quantitative easing under Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. In this paper we discuss the conceptual issues involved, document the data requirements, and describe improvements in the data and methods since our earlier paper, Jorgenson, Nomura, and Samuels (2016). A major improvement results from new benchmark purchasing power parity (PPP) estimates for outputs and KLEMS inputs by industry for the year 2011. Productivity in the U.S. exceeded that in Japan for the entire postwar period. In the 1980s and the 1990s, however, manufacturing productivity in Japan overtook the U.S. by a substantial margin. Over that same period, the gap in non-manufacturing productivity diminished, but not at the same rate as in manufacturing. Between 1991 and 2015, U.S. productivity growth exceeded that of Japan in manufacturing. Because the gap in non-manufacturing productivity remained stable over the period, the overall productivity gap widened.

"Productivity Growth in Asia and its Country Origins"

Koji Nomura

Des Kusum Das (eds.) Productivity Dynamics in Emerging and Industrialized Countries (Routledge) 81 - 112 2018.04

Research paper (other academic), Single Work

Recovery from the global financial crisis of 2008-09 has been notably slow in the European economy, with its growth rate for 2010-14 steady at 0.5 percent per annum on average, relative to 2.1 percent growth in the pre-crisis period of 2000-07 (as represented by 15 member countries of EU prior to enlargement). In contrast, the United States has managed to raise its growth rate to 1.9 percent for 2010-14, and is beginning to return to its long-term growth track. The Asian economy, which has become increasingly autonomous from the Western economies and even contributed to stabilizing the global economy at the time of the global financial crisis, has been maintaining a stable economic growth of 5.3 percent per annum on average during 2010-14. Yet, this represents a slowdown of 1 percentage point from the level recorded in the pre-crisis period. Our study indicates that it is mainly due to the reduction in the growth of total factor productivity (TFP) of the Asian economy.

Access to Document (DOI)

"Long-term Economic Growth and Energy Productivity Improvement in Japan - Changes in Energy Quality and Industry Outputs" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

RCGW Discussion Paper (Research Center of Global Warming, Research Institute of Capital Formation, Development Bank of Japan) ( 61 ) 2018.03

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

本稿は1885–2016年における日本経済の長期エネルギー生産性の推移を概観しながら、とくに第II期：高度経済成長期（1955–73年）、第III期：オイルショック後（1973–90年）、第IV期：ポストバブル経済期（1990–2008年）、そして第V期：ポスト世界金融危機（2008–16年）の4期間において、電力化の進行などエネルギー品質の変化や、産業構造の変化を明示的に考慮に入れたうえでのエネルギー生産性を測定し、その産業起因を分析することを目的としている。マクロレベルでの見かけ上の生産性改善の黄金期は第III期にみられるものの、エネルギー品質や産業構造の変化を統御すれば、生産性改善のピークはむしろ第II期であり、エネルギー多消費産業が相対的に拡大しながらもエネルギー生産性の改善を伴うものであったことが示される。第II期の年率2.0%から、第III期には年率1.5%、低成長となる第IV期では年率0.1%へと減速するが、第V期においては再び年率1.6%への回復している。しかしその要因分析によれば、それは必ずしも持続的な要因ではない。一定の仮定に基づけば将来におけるエネルギー生産性改善は年率0.2–0.6%と予測される。

"Measuring Quality-adjusted Labor Inputs in South Asia, 1970–2015"

Koji Nomura and Naoyuki Akashi

KEO Discussion Paper (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University) ( 143 ) 2017.12

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work, Lead author, Last author, Corresponding author

This paper attempts to adjust labor input for quality change over time, and quantify its impact on the TFP growth estimates, in six South Asian countries, i.e. Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, covering the period of 1970–2015. This work requires employment data differentiated into labor categories and their corresponding wage estimates for each of these countries. The database we compile are country’s employment and wage matrices cross-classified by four attributes, namely, gender, education, age, and employment status. Our findings suggest that it is significant to account for labor quality change. In the whole period of our observation, labor quality growths are considerable in all six South Asian countries included in this study, ranging from 0.7% per year on average in Bangladesh to 1.9% in Nepal, compared to the annual growths in total hours worked ranging from 1.4% in Sri Lanka to 2.6% in Bhutan. The changes in labor quality explain 27–46% of the quality-adjusted labor input (QALI) growth in the South Asian countries, implying downward revisions to their TFP growths estimated without considering the changes in labor quality of 0.4–1.1 percentage points per year on average.

Access to Document (DOI)

"Towards Improvement in Measurement of Wholesale and Retail Margin Rates in Japan"

Koji Nomura, Kozo Miyagawa, and Sonoe Arai

Economic Statistics Research (Keizai Sangyo Toukei Kyokai) 45 ( Ⅲ ) 23 - 52 2017.12

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

"Are Japan's Wholesale and Retail Prices Higher than Those in the United States? Estimation of margin rates using microdata from the Census of Commerce"

Koji Nomura and Kozo Miyagawa

RIETI Discussion Paper (The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)) 17-J-026 2017.03

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

"Can Improvement in Energy Productivity Sustain in UK and Germany?" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

RCGW Discussion Paper (Research Center of Global Warming, Research Institute of Capital Formation, Development Bank of Japan) ( 60 ) 2017.02

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

英独両国は、それぞれ1970年代後半および1980年代後半より、CO2排出とデカップリングした経済成長を実現してきた。とくに英国では、2000年以降にはエネルギー生産性の改善が年率3.1%へと加速し、それは1990年代の年率1.6%から倍増している。英国の経済成長率も年率1.7%と主要先進国の中で高いものの、生産活動におけるエネルギー生産性の大幅な改善は、近年のデカップリングの半分ほどを説明する要因となっている。独国ではエネルギー生産性の改善は英国での経験の半分ほどに留まるが、再生可能エネルギーが発電シェアの1/3ほどにまで拡大した現在、“Efficiency First”のモットーのもと、野心的な省エネ目標を次のエネルギー政策のコアとして設定している。日本も2030年に向けた「長期エネルギー需給見通し」では、年率2.3%ほどのエネルギー生産性の改善を目標としており、それはオイルショック後における日本経済の経験に匹敵する省エネを求めるものである。その実現可能性を考える上では、英独両国の経験から示唆を得られるであろう。
一国集計レベルで観測されるマクロのエネルギー生産性は、エネルギー価格変化や経済成長のパターンなどの経済的諸条件を背景として、生産構造の変化を反映した複合的な指標である。独国では、ミクロレベルでは省エネ事例が喧伝されるものの、2000–14年における年率1.5%のエネルギー生産性の改善は過去の経験値を上回るものではなく、また産業を細分化した本稿での測定によれば、その改善の2/3以上が産業構造要因に起因するものと評価される。この期間、賃金上昇抑制によって独国経済における内需の拡大は限定的であり、経済成長の半分は外需に依存している。英国に比して製造業が順調に成長した独国経済においても、個々の製造業におけるエネルギー生産性に大きな改善は見出せない。
英国の2000–14年における年率3.1%という高いエネルギー生産性の改善は、本稿での産業構造要因の統御によっては年率1.5%へと半減し、残されたエネルギー生産性改善の過半はサービス業での改善に起因する。一方、サービス業におけるエネルギー生産性は分子である景気変動の影響を強く反映して変動することから、必ずしもエネルギー需要をもたらさない生産拡大による同指標への影響を取り除くような試算によれば、マクロで観察される年率3.1%改善の2/3以上はやはり生産構造に関する要因に起因するものと評価される。英国でのBrexit後の移民流入の抑制による経済成長の減速、サービス業の成長率の低下、製造業への回帰による生産構造の変化は、英国における今後のエネルギー生産性の改善を大きく減速させるものと考えられる。

"Redefining the Picture of Myanmar's Economic Growth: Trade, Production, and Jade"

Koji Nomura and Hiroshi Shirane

KEO Discussion Paper (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University) ( 141 ) 2016.12

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

Access to Document (DOI)

"A Half Century of Trans-Pacific Competition: Price Level Indices and Productivity Gaps for Japanese and U.S. Industries, 1955-2012"

Dale W. Jorgenson, Koji Nomura, and Jon D. Samuels

D. W. Jorgenson et al (eds.) The World Economy – Growth or Stagnation? (Cambridge University Press) 469 - 507 2016.11

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

Access to Document (DOI)

"A Growth Accounting Framework for the Kingdom of Bhutan, 1990–2014"

Koji Nomura

Development Policy and Analysis Division, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) 2016.06

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

The purpose of this study is to develop a comprehensive time-series database on outputs, intermediate inputs, and labor and capital inputs by industry and to provide a first result of the growth accounting framework for the Kingdom of Bhutan during 1990–2014. In particular, the hydropower electricity generation has had a considerable impact not only on the production-side of GDP, but also on the demand-side of GDP in the recent Bhutanese economic growth. Our growth accounting framework is designed to identify the impacts by electricity.
The structure of this report is as follows. In section 2, the time-series Supply and Use Tables (SUT) are newly developed, sustaining the basic consistency with the Bhutan system of national accounts (BTSNA). The development of the time-series use tables enables to provide the comprehensive estimates of prices and quantities in outputs and intermediate inputs (energy, material, and service) by industry. In the SUT, the economic transaction between Druk Green Power Corporation (DGPC) as a producer of hydropower electricity and Bhutan Power Corporation (BPC) as a distributor of electricity is described, sustaining a consistency with the physical tables in the Electricity Account by NSB (2015).
In section 3, this study newly develops the labor database consisting of the number of workers, hours worked per worker, and hourly wage, which are cross-classified by gender, education attainment, age, and employment status by industry. Based on the data we develop, the time-series estimates of compensation of employees (COE) are estimated and the quality-adjusted labor inputs (QALI), as an appropriate measure of labor inputs recommended in the 2008 SNA are estimated in each industry.
In section 4, the time-series matrices of investment and capital stock by type of assets and industry are newly developed. Based on the developed time-series use tables and capital stock matrices, the rate of returns are estimated endogenously by industry. Using the estimated use costs of capital by type of assets and industry, capital services by industry are estimated.
In section 5, based on the estimated outputs and capital, labor energy, material, and service (KLEMS) inputs for Bhutan, the TFP growths by industry are developed for the whole periods of our observation of 1990–2014. The first set of the results at the industry and the aggregate levels are introduced. References and the details of the estimated tables are presented in sections 6 and 7, respectively.

"Use of General Equilibrium Model for Evaluating Japan's Energy" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

Energy and Resources (Japan Society of Energy and Resources) 37 ( 1 ) 43 - 47 2016.01

Research paper (scientific journal), Single Work

"Electricity Prices and Structural Changes in the 2000s in Italy" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura

RCGW Discussion Paper (Research Center of Global Warming, Research Institute of Capital Formation, Development Bank of Japan) ( 54 ) 2015.12

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

"A Half Century of Trans-Pacific Competition: Price level indices and productivity gaps for Japanese and U.S. industries, 1955-2012"

Dale W. Jorgenson, Koji Nomura, and Jon D. Samuels

RIETI Discussion Paper (The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)) 15-E-054 2015.05

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

"Energy Efficiency Improvement and Technical Changes in Japanese Industries, 1955-2012"

Yoko Konishi and Koji Nomura

RIETI Discussion Paper (The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)) 15-E-058 2015.05

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

"The Japan-U.S. Price Level Index for Industry Outputs"

Koji Nomura and Kozo Miyagawa

RIETI Discussion Paper (The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)) 15-E-059 2015.05

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

"Measurement of Quality-Adjusted Labor Input in Japan, 1955–2012" (in Japanese)

Koji NOMURA and Hiroshi Shirane

KEO Discussion Paper (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University) ( 133 ) 2014.12

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work, Lead author, Last author, Corresponding author

Access to Document (DOI)

"Do High Feed-in Tariffs Hinder Competition?" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura and Tomomichi Amano

RCGW Discussion Paper (Research Center of Global Warming, Research Institute of Capital Formation, Development Bank of Japan) ( 49 ) 2014.04

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

"Revising the 2005 US-Japan Bilateral Input-Output Table" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura, Kozo Miyagawa, and Kei Okamoto

Economic Statistics Research (Keizai Sangyo Tokei Kyokai) 41 ( 4 ) 61-82 2014.03

Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work

"Quality Changes in Japan's Labor Inputs, 1955-2011" (in Japanese)

Koji Nomura and Hiroshi Sihrane

RCGW Discussion Paper (Research Center of Global Warming, Research Institute of Capital Formation, Development Bank of Japan) ( 48 ) 2013.12

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

"Asset Service Lives and Depreciation Rates based on Disposal Data in Japan"

Koji Nomura and Yutaka Suga

Economic Measurement Group Workshop Asia 2013: Data Gaps and Economic Measurement 2013.10

Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.), Joint Work

"Estimation of Import Share Elasticity of Photovoltaic Modules" (in Japanese)

Koji NOMURA, Kanji YOSHIOKA, and Shiori OSAWA

KEO Discussion Paper (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University) ( 131 ) 2013.01

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work, Lead author, Last author, Corresponding author

Access to Document (DOI)

"Labor Productivity and Quality Change in Singapore: Achievements in 1974-2011 and Prospects for the Next Two Decades"

Koji Nomura and Tomomichi Amano

KEO Discussion Paper (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University) ( 129 ) 2012.09

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

Access to Document (DOI)

「社会資本統計の作成とその課題」

Koji Nomura

月刊『統計』 (日本統計協会) 2-7 2012.06

Research paper (scientific journal), Single Work

「復興に向けて求められる情報基盤」

野村浩二

伊藤滋・奥野正寛・大西隆・花崎正晴編『東日本大震災復興への提言―持続可能な経済社会の構築―』 (東京大学出版会) 2011.07

Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.), Single Work

A Note on Recent Progress in Measuring Capital

Koji Nomura

Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, Japan (The Institute of Life Cycle Assessment, Japan (ILCAJ)) 6 ( 2 ) 83-87 2010.04

Research paper (scientific journal), Single Work

Access to Document (DOI)

「温暖化対策の経済評価－わが国の中期目標における選択肢」

國則守生・野村浩二・英公子

『経済経営研究』 (日本政策投資銀行設備投資研究所) 30 ( 3 ) 43 2010.03

Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work

"Sources of Per Capita Real Income Growth in Asia, 1970-2007"

Nomura, Koji, Hideyuki Mizobuchi and Soyoen Myung

KEO Discussion Paper (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University) ( 120 ) 2010.02

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

"Economic Impacts by Policies to Reduce Carbon Emissions"

Nomura Koji

Yoichi Kaya edt. "CO2 Sakuegn wa Dokomade Kanouka?" (in Japanese) (Energy Forum) 226 - 283 2009.12

Research paper (other academic), Single Work

"The Industry Origins of Japanese Economic Growth"

Dale W. Jorgenson and Koji Nomura

D. W. Jorgenson (eds.) The Economics of Productivity (International Library of Critical Writings in Economics) (Edward Elgar Pub) 421 - 481 2009.09

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

"On Measuring the Productivity and the Standard of Living in Japan, 1955-2006"

W. Erwin Diewert, Hideyuki Mizobuchi and Koji Nomura

KEO Discussion Paper (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University) ( 115 ) 2009.02

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

Access to Document (DOI)

"A Survey of National Accounts in Asia for Cross-country Productivity Comparisons"

Koji Nomura, Eunice Y. M. Lau, and Hideyuki Mizobuchi

KEO Discussion Paper (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University) ( 114 ) 2008.11

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work, Lead author, Corresponding author

Access to Document (DOI)

"The Industry Origins of the U.S.-Japan Productivity Gap"

Dale W. Jorgenson and Koji Nomura

Economic System Research (International Input-Output Association) 19 ( 3 ) 315-342 2007.09

Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted

Access to Document (DOI)

「多部門一般均衡モデルによる二酸化炭素排出量評価 - 第一約束期間の限界削減費用と2030年展望-」

Koji Nomura

KEO Discussion Paper (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University) ( 107 ) 2007.07

Research paper (other academic), Single Work

Access to Document (DOI)

"Economic Growth and Information Technology in the U.S. and Japan"

Dale W. Jorgenson and Koji Nomura

Economic and Social Research Institute (Economic and Social Research Institute,Cabinet Office of Japan) 2007.06

Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.), Joint Work

Access to Document (DOI)

「環境保全のコストと政策の在り方」

Masahiro Kuroda and Koji Nomura

清野一治・新保一成編『地球環境保護への制度設計』 (東京大学出版会) 2007.01

Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.), Joint Work

「国民経済計算における土地のストックとサービス－生産要素としての非生産資産」

Koji Nomura

『住宅土地経済』 (公益財団法人日本住宅総合センター) 61 18-25 2006.07

Research paper (scientific journal), Single Work

"An Alternative Method to Estimate WiP Inventory on Cultivated Assets"

Koji Nomura

KEO Discussion Paper (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University) ( 101 ) 2006.03

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

Access to Document (DOI)

"The Industry Origins of Japanese Economic Growth"

Dale W. Jorgenson and Koji Nomura

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 19 ( 4 ) 482-542 2005.12

Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted

Access to Document (DOI)

"Can IT be Japan's Savior?"

Fumio Hayashi and Koji Nomura

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 19 ( 4 ) 543-567 2005.12

Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted

Access to Document (DOI)

"On Measuring Japan's Productivity, 1955-2003"

W. Erwin Diewert, Hideyuki Mizobuchi, and Koji Nomura

University of British Columbia, Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series (Department of Economics, University of British Columbia) 05-22 2005.12

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

"Asset Service Lives: Examination of Directly Observed Discard Data in Japan"

Koji Nomura

KEO Discussion Paper (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University) ( 99 ) 2005.12

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

Access to Document (DOI)

"Measuring Capital in Japan - Challenges and Future Directions"

Koji Nomura and Tadao Futakami

2005 OECD Working Party on National Accounts (OECD) 2005.10

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

"Toward Reframing Capital Measurement in Japanese National Accounts"

Koji Nomura

Keio Discussion Paper (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University) ( 97 ) 2005.06

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Single Work

"Turn the Tables! Reframing Measurement of Capital in Japanese National Accounts"

Koji Nomura

Conference on Next Steps for the Japanese SNA: "Towards More Accurate Measurement and More Comprehensive Accounts" (Economic and Social Research Institution, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan) 2005.03

Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.), Single Work

"Information Technology and Economic Growth in the U.S. and Japan"

Dale W. Jorgenson and Koji Nomura

Economic and Social Research Institute, International Collaboration Projects Meeting (Economic and Social Research Institute,Cabinet Office of Japan) 2005.02

Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.), Joint Work

"Information Technology and the Japanese Growth Recovery"

Dale W. Jorgenson and Koji Nomura

17th Annual TRIO Conference (Keio University) 2004.12

Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.), Joint Work

"Capitalizing Own-Account Software in Japan"

Koji Nomura

Program on Technology and Economic Policy (PTEP) (John F.Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University) 35 2004.12

Research paper (other academic), Single Work

"Can We Go Back to Data? Reconsideration of U.S.-Harmonized Computer Prices in Japan"

Koji Nomura and Jon D. Samuels

Program on Technology and Economic Policy (PTEP) (John F.Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University) 43 2004.08

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

"Technological Change and Accumulated Capital: A Dynamic Decomposition of Japan's Growth"

Masahiro Kuroda and Koji Nomura

Wassily Leontief and Input-Output Economics (Cambridge University Press) 256-293 2004.03

Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.), Joint Work

Access to Document (DOI)

"Cost of Reducing CO2 Emissions in Japan"

Masahiro Kuroda and Koji Nomura

Chang C. , Mendelsohn R., and Shaw D. (eds.) Global Warming and the Asian Pacific (Edward Elgar Publishing) 153 - 167 2003.10

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

Access to Document (DOI)

"Forecasting Baseline CO2 Emissions in Japan"

Masahiro Kuroda and Koji Nomura

Chang C. , Mendelsohn R., and Shaw D. (eds.) Global Warming and the Asian Pacific (Edward Elgar Publishing) 60 - 74 2003.10

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

Access to Document (DOI)

"Wage Differentials and Structure in the U.S. and Japan, 1960–2000 – Purchasing Power Parities for Labor Input"

Koji Nomura and Jon D. Samuels

Research Center on Global Warming (Development Bank of Japan) Discussion Paper (Development Bank of Japan) ( No.28 ) 29 2003.09

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

"Structural Change and Productivity Growth in Japan : 1960-2000"

Masahiro Kuroda, Kazushige Shimpo, Koji Nomura, and Koichi Hikita

RIETI-KEIO Conference on Japanese Economy - Leading East Asia in the 21st Century? (RIETI-KEIO) 2003.05

Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.), Joint Work

「資本測定の概念」

野村浩二

KEO Discussion Paper (慶應義塾大学産業研究所) ( 80 ) 1 - 42 2002.10

Research paper (other academic), Single Work

Access to Document (DOI)

「循環型経済システム構築に向けた産業連関表の計上手法に関する考察」

Koji Nomura

産業連関イノベーション＆Ｉ-Ｏテクニーク (環太平洋産業連関分析学会) 10 ( 4 ) 2002.10

Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.), Single Work, Accepted

Access to Document (DOI)

「鉱物資源の多国間一般均衡モデルと資源政策－銅地金/鉱石の国際寡占市場における分析－」

KEO Discussion Paper (慶應義塾大学産業研究所) ( 74 ) 2002.05

Research paper (other academic), Single Work

Access to Document (DOI)

"Technological Change and Capital Accumulation in Japan"

Masahiro Kuroda and Koji Nomura

KEO Discussion Paper (Keio Economic Observatory) ( 68 ) 2001.10

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

Access to Document (DOI)

「地球温暖化とエネルギー政策－日本経済の多部門一般均衡モデルによる我が国エネルギー需給見通し－」

くろだまさひろ、のむらこうじ

三田学会雑誌 (慶應義塾大学) Vol.94 ( No.1 ) 85-104 2001.04

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

Access to Document (DOI)

「家計部門の用途別エネルギー消費関数の計測と炭素税賦課による影響」

KEO Discussion Paper (慶應義塾大学産業研究所) ( 57 ) 2000.06

Research paper (other academic), Single Work

Access to Document (DOI)

「環太平洋地域における国際産業連関表－多部門一般均衡モデルの構築のためのデータベース－」

くろだまさひろ、のむらこうじ、おおつたけし

KEO Discussion Paper (慶應義塾大学産業研究所未来開拓プロジェクト) ( No.83 ) 2000.02

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

環太平洋地域の経済の相互依存の構造を捉える分析用具として、国際産業連関表の推計を試みた。対象としているは、環太平洋地域10力国（日本、韓国、中国、台湾、フィリッピン、タイ、マレーシア、インドネシア、シンガポール、米国）である。われわれは、環太平洋地域の多部門一般均衡モデルの作成を目指している。一般均衡モデルの目的とその構造に関しては、同プロジェクトのDiscusion paper、“環太平洋地域における多部門一般均衡モデルの構築（黒田昌裕・野村浩二）”を参照されたいが、そのモデル構築に先立って、われわれのプロジェクトの枠組みに則して、1990年環太平洋地域国際産業連関表を作成した。本稿では、その作成手続きの詳細を述べ、作成された産業連関表を用いた幾つかの観測事実をまとめておきたいと思う。われわれの産業連関表では、次節で示すように、産業分類を50部門（電力部門を火力発電とその他発電に区分すれば、51部門）としており、各国共通部門分類70部門（WG1で各国の統計局等との共同研究として開発したものであり、以下EDEN表と呼ぶ）およびアジア経済研究所の産業分類56部門（以下アジ研表と呼ぶ）と対応関係を持つ。EDEN表は、各国ごとの競争型産業連関表、いわゆるCheneryタイプの表である。一・方、アジ研表は、非競争型産業連関表、いわゆるIsardタイプの表である。当面の多部門一般均衡モデルの枠組みから、Isard型の非競争型の国際産業連関表を必要としている。また、モデルの目的がエネルギーの投入構造と化石燃料の投入構造、さらには、化石燃料使用にともなう環境汚染因子（002および80￠）の排出の構造を記述することが必要であり、EDEN表の付帯表としてのエネルギー投入物量表の情報を利用することが不可欠である。したがって、ここでの国際産業連関表は、EDEN表およびアジ研表の特性を生かしながら、多部門一般均衡モデル作成のための環太平洋非競争型国際産業連関表の作成を目指すことになる。アジ研表の中間投入に関する輸入マトリクスの情報を用いながら、われわれの産業部門分類50部門での非競争型産業連関表を作成し、各産業および最終需要部門でのエネルギー物量投入の構造から、エネルギー投入および環境汚染因子の排出係数をそれに対応させることによって、エネルギー効率の各国格差および環境汚染因子の排出の構造を知ることができる。環太平洋地域での輸出入を通じた各国経済の相互依存の構造から、各国の経済の相互依存を通じた環境因子の波及の構造を知ることができる。経済の相互依存の一般均衡的な描写は、別途一般均衡モデルに委ねることとし、本稿では、作成した産業連関表から観察できる幾つかの観測事実を整理しておきたい。次節で、ここでの国際産業連関表の枠組みを述べ、産業部門分類、エネルギー種別分類を提示し、推計の手続きを述べる。第3節では、推計した国際産業連関表を用いて、若干の観測事実を整理しておきたい。

「環太平洋地域における多部門一般均衡モデルの構築」

くろだまさひろ、のむらこうじ

KEO Discussion Paper (慶應義塾大学産業研究所未来開拓プロジェクト) ( No.86 ) 2000.02

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

"Productivity Comparison and International Competitiveness"

Masahiro Kuroda and Koji Nomura

Journal of Applied Input-Output Analysis (PAPAIOS) Vol.5 1999.12

Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted

「日米商品別相対比価の計測－日米貿易構造を通じた価格の相互依存のもとで－」

のむらこうじ、みやがわこうぞう

KEO Discussion Paper (慶應義塾大学産業研究所) ( 55 ) 1999.12

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

Access to Document (DOI)

「日米生産性比較と国際競争力」

くろだまさひろ、のむらこうじ

三田商学研究 (慶應義塾大学) Vol.42 ( No.5 ) 41-73 1999.12

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

"Measurement of Total Factor Productivity in Japan: How to Evaluate Impacts of New Technologies on TFP Growths"

Masahiro Kuroda and Koji Nomura

Tsu-Tan Fu (eds.) Economic Efficiency and Productivity Growth in the Asia-Pacific Region (Edward Elgar Publishing) 1999.07

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

「技術知識ストック推計における問題点」

野村浩二

技術構造分析に関する調査研究 (機械振興協会経済研究所) 27-45 1999.03

Research paper (other academic), Single Work

"An Explanation of The Productivity Paradox : TFP Spillover through Capital Accumulation"

Masahiro Kuroda and Koji Nomura

IMES Discussion Paper Series (BOJ) ( No.99-E-10 ) 1999.03

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

「環境政策の一般均衡分析」

くろだまさひろ、のむらこうじ

三田商学研究 (慶應義塾大学) Vol.41 ( No.4 ) 27-54 1998.10

Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution), Joint Work

「資本サービス価格の計測」

KEO Discussion Paper (慶應義塾大学産業研究所) ( 53 ) 1998.10

Research paper (other academic), Single Work

Access to Document (DOI)

"Application of Input-Output Table for Environmental Analysis (9) -CO2 Load of Space Solar Power Satellites" (in Japanese)

Kanji Yoshioka, Mikio Suga, Koji Nomura, Keiichiro Asakura

『産業連関イノベーション＆Ｉ-Ｏテクニーク』 (環太平洋産業連関分析学会) Vol.8 ( No.2 ) 28 - 44 1998.08

Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work

21世紀の電力生産はどこまで化石燃料依存から抜け出すことが可能であろうか。この問題に対する最も革命的選択肢の1つは，「太陽発電衛星」(Solar Power Satellite: SPS) による電力の供給である。なぜ，地上に代わって高度3600kmの人工衛星上という宇宙空間からの発電が優れているかを以下でまず説明し，次に，このシステムを支援する施設の生産をも含めた総合的なCO2の負荷量の分析を行う。産業連関分析の手法は，直接の負荷量のみでなく，1次，2次，3次と間接的な負荷量までも含めた総合的な計算を可能とする。はたしてSPSがどこまでCO2負荷量を軽減できるか。真に未来型発電システムたりうるかをI-O分析の視点から検討を試みる。

Access to Document (DOI)

「日本経済の多部門一般均衡モデルの構築と環境保全政策シミュレーション（II）環境保全政策と炭素税賦課シミュレーション」

くろだまさひろ、のむらこうじ

KEO Discussion Paper (慶應義塾大学産業研究所未来開拓プロジェクト) ( G-16 ) 1998.07

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

我が国の最終エネルギー消費は、平成6年度の総合エネルギー調査会での長期エネルギー需給見通し作成の際に前提とされた1992年度の実績から、1996年度までに大きく変動を示している。1992年度総最終エネルギー消費が原油換算で360百万kL(うち産業用181百万kL、民生用93百万kL、運輸用86百万kL)から、1996年度には総計で393百万kLにまで伸びている。1990年実績349百万kLと比較しても、産業用で年率約1.0%、民生用約3.0%、運輸用約3.0%と予想を上回った伸びである。とりわけ、民生、運輸用の需要が堅調であり、産業用も製造業エネルギー多消費産業(鉄鋼、化学、窯業土石、紙パルプ)のエネルギー消費原単位が1990年を境に反転して増加傾向を示しているのが特徴である。1996年実績で、総最終エネルギー消費に占める産業用、民生用、運輸用シェアーはそれぞれ、49.6%、25.9%、24.5%となっており、民生、運輸の2者のシェアーが、産業用を上回ってきているという特徴もみられる。また1992年から1996年のGDP成長率が年率1.8%程度であり、その間、最終エネルギー消費が年率2.2%となっていることから、エネルギー消費のGDP弾性値は、1.26という値を示している。この伸び率は、平成6年の需給見通しで想定されていた2000年度の総エネルギー消費388百万kLを1996年度ですでに上回っていることとなり、2010年のCO2排出削減目標に向けてのエネルギー需給の根本的な見直しが必要となっている。別の言い方をすれば、経済成長率が年率2～3%程度で推移することを見込んで将来を見通した場合、2010年のC02排出量を1990年レベルに安定化させるためには、2010年度の総エネルギー消費を400百万kLまで年率で0.2%程度の伸びで1996年以降推移するというシナリオを描く必要がある。よってその間のエネルギー消費のGDP弾性は、0.2～0.3という小さな値を考えていることになる。C02の排出が大きく化石エネルギーの使用に依存していることは言うまでもない。したがって、ありうべき対策としては、一方で、化石エネルギーから非化石エネルギーへの転換を進めるとともに、他方で、産業、民生、運輸のあらゆる部門で、省エネルギー化を進めるということになろう。環境保全、経済成長、エネルギー安全保障の観点から、各種の対策が、国民経済にいかなる影響を与えるかを推察した上での、政策選択が必要とされる。本稿では、次節で多部門一般均衡モデルでのエネルギー需給についての概要とBaU(Business as Usual)ケースにおけるシナリオを記述する。第3節では、モデル体系内における炭素税賦課の影響の論理フローと若干の予備的考察をおこない、第4節において、我が国の環境保全政策に対応して各種C02排出削減シナリオが経済諸部門に与える影響についてシミュレーション結果を報告する。

「日本経済の多部門一般均衡モデルの構築と環境保全政策シミュレーション（I）環境保全政策と多部門一般均衡モデルの構築」

くろだまさひろ、のむらこうじ

KEO Discussion Paper (慶應義塾大学産業研究所未来開拓プロジェクト) ( G-15 ) 1998.07

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

昨年12月に京都で開催された、いわゆるCOP3(Conference of Parties)において、京都議定書(KyotoProtocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change)として、参加161箇国が2008年から2012年の期間に地球温暖化ガスの削減に向けて努力することが合意をみた。議定書の発効要件として、(1)55箇国以上の批准、(2)批准した附属書Ⅰの締約国(先進国)のCO2総排出量が附属書Ⅰの全締約国のC02排出量の55%を超過することを要件とすることが定められている。必ずしも議定書の発効が確実かどうかについても疑問なしとはしないが、我が国の現状を踏まえて、現時点でそこでの目標の達成の可能性とそのための政策施策を検討しておくことは重要な課題である。この研究は、我が国の経済を定量的に捉える多部門一般均衡モデルを用いることによって、CO2排出量削減目標の達成の可能性を検討し、目標実現に向けての各種の施策導入が、我が国経済構造にいかなる影響をもたらすかを推察することを目的に行ったものである。各経済主体はその行動の原理として主体均衡の経済合理性を追求する。そこでは、各期の期首に与えられた諸条件を前提として、一期ごとの合理的行動を積み重ねて、逐次的に経済成長の経路を導くことになっている。このモデルによって京都議定書の目標対象期間2008-12年におけるC02排出量が求められ、目標値との関係で、新たな施策の導入が経済成長の逐次的経路に及ぼす影響を算定することができる。各種政策手段の導入の効果を算定するために、このモデルでは様々な政策に対応しうるフレキシビリティのあることが特徴といえる。本稿では、次節でCOP3でのいわゆる京都議定書の内容と我が国エネルギー需給構造との対応に触れた後、第3節で、環境保全対策に対する幾つかの経済的手段の意味を明らかにすることから始める。環境保全の経済的手段は、いわゆる市場オリエンテッドな炭素税や排出権売買などの手段と省エネルギー施策の法的手段やその他の誘導的手段に大きくは別れるかもしれない。政策手段の効果評価は、その環境保全の費用効果性(Cost Effectiveness)、効率性(Efficiency) 、公平性(Equity)の観点から総合的に判断すべきものである。第4節では、第3節の総論的説明を前提に多部門一般均衡モデルの構造を示す。構築したモデルによる各種シミュレーションについては、次稿(II)環境保全政策と炭素税賦課シミュレーションで考察することにする。

「宇宙太陽発電衛星のCO2負荷－若干のシミュレーション－」

よしおかかんじ、すがみきお、のむらこうじ、あさくらけいいちろう

KEO Discussion Paper (慶應義塾大学産業研究所未来開拓プロジェクト) 1998.03

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

「我が国における資本ストック推計の諸問題と固定資本ストックマトリックスの時系列推計」

経済統計研究 (通産統計協会) Vol.25 ( No.4 ) 1998.03

Research paper (scientific journal), Single Work

「宇宙太陽発電衛星のCO2負荷」

吉岡完治, 菅幹雄, 野村浩二,朝倉啓一郎

KEO Discussion Paper (慶應義塾大学産業研究所) 1998.02

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

「生産性パラドックスへの一つの解釈－Static and Dynamic Unit TFPの提案－」

黒田昌裕, 野村浩二

『金融研究』 (日本銀行金融研究所) Vol.16 ( No.4 ) 32-40 1997.12

Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted

Properties of Capital Input in Japan - Estimation of the Time-series Fixed Capital Stock Matrices

Koji Nomura

『産業連関イノベーション＆Ｉ-Ｏテクニーク』 (環太平洋産業連関分析学会) Vol.7 ( No.4 ) 32 - 40 1997.08

Research paper (scientific journal), Single Work

我が国の資本蓄積の構成を分解し、資本財の質的変化および構成変化に着目し、特に高度成長期において資本蓄積が旺盛であったばかりではなく、その質的な変化が大きかったことを検出している。また同時に価格側からの資本サービス価格の計測を通じて、本源的生産要素の相対価格の劇的な変化と資本蓄積との整合的な変位について歴史的に評価をおこなった。

Access to Document (DOI)

「アジア諸国の経済的相互依存の変化と日本経済」

黒田昌裕, 野村浩二

mimeo (慶應義塾大学産業研究所) 1-54 1996.02

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

"Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emission and Its Distributional Impacts"

Masahiro Kuroda, Koji Nomura, Nobuyuki Kobayashi, Morio Kuninori, Hideaki Tomita, and Kimiko Hanabusa

The JDB Symposium on the Environment and Sustainable Development (Japan Development Bank) 1995.11

Joint Work

「アジアにおける直接投資の動向とわが国機械工業の国際競争力に関する調査研究」

黒田昌裕, 野村浩二

mimeo (慶應義塾大学産業研究所) 1995.06

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

「長期接続産業連関表の推計と分析－1960-65-70-75-80-85-90年－」

野村浩二

mimeo (慶應義塾大学産業研究所) 1-54 1995.04

Research paper (other academic), Single Work

「アジア経済の相互依存の実態と分業構造」

黒田昌裕, 野村浩二

mimeo (慶應義塾大学産業研究所) 1995.02

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

Development of New Indicators of Purchasing Power Parities

Masahiro Kuroda, Kazushige Shimpo, and Koji Nomura

mimeo (慶應義塾大学産業研究所) 1994.08

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

「社会資本形成の推計-固定資本マトリックスの時系列推計において-」

野村浩二

『経済統計研究』 (通産統計協会) Vol.22 ( No.1 ) 1-29 1994.06

Research paper (scientific journal), Single Work

「円高傾向下での日米産業の競争力の分析」

黒田昌裕, 野村浩二

mimeo (慶應義塾大学産業研究所) 1-106 1994.02

Research paper (other academic), Joint Work

　 Previous page - Next page 　