論文 - 星野　崇宏

Semiparametric Bayesian Estimation for Marginal Parametric Potential Outcome Modeling: Application to Causal Inference

Takahiro Hoshino

Journal of the American Statistical Association （Journal of the American Statistical Association）  108 （ 504 ） 1189 - 1204 2013年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, 査読有り,  ISSN  01621459

　概要を見る

We propose a new semiparametric Bayesian model for causal inference in which assignment to treatment depends on potential outcomes. The model uses the probit stick-breaking process mixture proposed by Chung and Dunson (2009), a variant of the Dirichlet process mixture modeling. In contrast to previous Bayesian models, the proposed model directly estimates the parameters of the marginal parametric model of potential outcomes, while it relaxes the strong ignorability assumption, and requires no parametric model assumption for the assignment model and conditional distribution of the covariate vector. The proposed estimation method is more robust than maximum likelihood estimation, in that it does not require knowledge of the full joint distribution of potential outcomes, covariates, and assignments. In addition, the method is more efficient than fully nonparametric Bayes methods. We apply this model to infer the differential effects of cognitive and noncognitive skills on the wages of production and nonproduction workers using panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth in 1979. The study also presents the causal effect of online word-of-mouth onWeb site browsing behavior. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Real-Time Survey of Vaccine Safety of the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine in Workplace Vaccination at Keio University

Okumura K., Hara A., Inada I., Sugiyama D., Hoshino T., Yakoh T., Yokoyama H., Urushihara H.

Vaccines （Vaccines）  10 （ 9 ） 1461 2022年09月

査読有り

　概要を見る

The mRNA-1273 Moderna COVID-19 vaccine was introduced to combat the COVID-19 global pandemic in 2020. Although the safety of the vaccine has been investigated worldwide, real-world safety data is scarce in Japan. An online, real-time survey of adverse events following immunization (AEFIs) with mRNA-1273 was conducted in the setting of a workplace vaccination program at the School of Pharmacy, Keio University from 26 June 2021, to 11 June 2022. Participants were requested to take four surveys during a seven-day follow-up period after each of the first, second, and third booster doses. The maximum number of responses, from 301 respondents, was obtained on day 0 (vaccination date) for the first dose. 98% of respondents reported local and systemic AEFIs for the second dose on day 1. No noticeable difference in local reactions was seen among the three doses. Females reported more AEFIs than males, and the young group (18–29 years) reported a higher rate than the middle age group (≥30 years) after the first dose. Age and gender differences in rates decreased at the second and third doses. This survey confirmed that the safety profile of mRNA-1273 in a real-world setting was similar to that derived from the clinical trials, and that the agent was well-tolerated.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Joint modeling of effects of customer tier program on customer purchase duration and purchase amount

Nishio K., Hoshino T.

Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services （Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services）  66 2022年05月

最終著者, 責任著者, 査読有り,  ISSN  09696989

　概要を見る

Nowadays, many supermarkets implement a customer tier program to increase their profits because it is expected to raise customers' willingness to purchase by setting thresholds. However, designing an appropriate program is difficult because each customer's heterogeneous purchase behavior is difficult to capture. Therefore, we simultaneously modeled purchase frequency and amount through a marked point process approach while considering program effects and customer characteristics. The results clarified that the points pressure effect was particularly strong among customers who originally visited the store infrequently and had not attained the threshold set up in the customer tier program many times in the past. In addition, we found that the three-tier customer tier program was superior to the two-tier program with respect to the operating income in supermarkets.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effect by Data Combination

Kazuhiko Shinoda, Takahiro Hoshino

Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 36 2022年

最終著者, 査読有り

　概要を見る

It is important to estimate the local average treatment effect (LATE) when
compliance with a treatment assignment is incomplete. The previously proposed
methods for LATE estimation required all relevant variables to be jointly
observed in a single dataset; however, it is sometimes difficult or even
impossible to collect such data in many real-world problems for technical or
privacy reasons. We consider a novel problem setting in which LATE, as a
function of covariates, is nonparametrically identified from the combination of
separately observed datasets. For estimation, we show that the direct least
squares method, which was originally developed for estimating the average
treatment effect under complete compliance, is applicable to our setting.
However, model selection and hyperparameter tuning for the direct least squares
estimator can be unstable in practice since it is defined as a solution to the
minimax problem. We then propose a weighted least squares estimator that
enables simpler model selection by avoiding the minimax objective formulation.
Unlike the inverse probability weighted (IPW) estimator, the proposed estimator
directly uses the pre-estimated weight without inversion, avoiding the problems
caused by the IPW methods. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method
through experiments using synthetic and real-world datasets.


Effects of web-based learning for nurses on their care for pregnant women with hiesho: A randomized controlled trial

Sachiyo Nakamura, Shoko Takeuchi, Takahiro Hoshino, Naoko Okubo, Shigeko Horiuchi

Japanese Journal of Nursing Science in press 2022年

査読有り

Semiparametric Bayes instrumental variable estimation with many weak instruments

Kato R., Hoshino T.

Stat （Stat）  10 （ 1 ） e350 2021年12月

最終著者, 責任著者, 査読有り,  ISSN  2049-1573

　概要を見る

We develop a new semiparametric Bayes instrumental variables estimation method. We employ the form of the regression function of the first-stage equation, and the disturbances are modeled nonparametrically to achieve better predictive power of the endogenous variables, whereas we use parametric formulation in the second-stage equation, which is of interest in inference. Our simulation studies show that under small sample sizes, the proposed method obtains more efficient estimates and very precise credible intervals compared with existing IV methods with smaller mean squared error. We applied our proposed method to a Mendelian randomization dataset where a large number of instruments are available and semiparametric specification is appropriate. We obtained statistically significant results that cannot be obtained by the existing methods, including standard Bayesian IV.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Kernel canonical correlation analysis for data combination of multiple-source datasets

Masaki Mitsuhiro, Takahiro Hoshino

Japanese Journal of Statistics and Data Science （Springer Science and Business Media LLC）  3 （ 2 ） 669 - 691 2020年12月

最終著者, 責任著者, 査読有り,  ISSN  2520-8756

• Access to Document (DOI)

Positive-Unlabelled Survival Data Analysis

Tomoki Toyabe, Yasuhiro Hasegawa, Takahiro Hoshino

2020年11月

　概要を見る

In this paper, we consider a novel framework of positive-unlabeled data in
which as positive data survival times are observed for subjects who have events
during the observation time as positive data and as unlabeled data censoring
times are observed but whether the event occurs or not are unknown for some
subjects. We consider two cases: (1) when censoring time is observed in
positive data, and (2) when it is not observed. For both cases, we developed
parametric models, nonparametric models, and machine learning models and the
estimation strategies for these models. Simulation studies show that under this
data setup, traditional survival analysis may yield severely biased results,
while the proposed estimation method can provide valid results.


The impact of competitors store flyer advertisement on EDLP/HiLo chain performance in highly competitive retail market: GPS information and POS data approach in Japan

KATO Ryo and HOSHINO Takahiro

Journal of Advertising 48 （ 5 ） 569 - 587 2020年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, 査読有り

• Access to Document (DOI)

RFMC分析におけるClumpiness 指標の拡張と自社顧客の行動予測への応用：Clumpiness を活用した離脱時期と競合利用の予測手法の提案

星野 崇宏, 新美潤一郎

行動計量学 47 （ 1 ） 27 - 40 2020年03月

最終著者, 責任著者, 査読有り

Dynamic Two Stage Modeling for Category-Level and Brand-Level Purchases Using Potential Outcome Approach With Bayes Inference

Miyazaki K., Hoshino T., Böckenholt U.

Journal of Business and Economic Statistics （Journal of Business and Economic Statistics）  in press 2020年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  07350015

　概要を見る

© 2020, © 2020 American Statistical Association. We propose an econometric two-stage model for category-level purchase and brand-level purchase that allows for simultaneous brand purchases in the analysis of scanner panel data. The proposed model formulation is consistent with the traditional theory of consumer behavior. We conduct Bayesian estimation with the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for our proposed model. The simulation studies show that previously proposed related models can cause severe bias in predicting future brand choices, while the proposed method can effectively predict them. Additionally in a marketing application, the proposed method can examine brand switching behaviors that existing methods cannot. Moreover, we show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed method is higher than that of existing methods.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Parametric identification of the joint distribution of the potential outcomes

Hoshino T., Takahata K.

Stat （Stat）  9 （ 1 ） e254 - e254 2020年

最終著者, 責任著者, 査読有り

　概要を見る

We show the identification of the joint distribution of the potential outcomes under various parametric specifications. The key factor of the identification is the nonnormality of the distribution of the observed variables, with which we can obtain information of higher order moments that are not determined only by mean and variance. In particular, we show the identification of the joint distribution of the potential outcomes when it is specified by a normal mixture. Because any continuous distribution can be well approximated by a finite mixture distribution, our result may cover a wide class of distributions. The identification results derived are useful for estimating quantile treatment effects, causal mediation effects, and heterogeneous treatment effects, which cannot be estimated even if the unconfoundedness assumption is satisfied.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Prediction of the Customer Activity with Using the Improved Measure of Clumpiness

Junichiro NIIMI, Takahiro HOSHINO

Kodo Keiryogaku (The Japanese Journal of Behaviormetrics) （Behaviormetric Society of Japan）  47 （ 1 ） 27 - 40 2020年

ISSN  0385-5481

• Access to Document (DOI)

Fatigue-Aware Ad Creative Selection

Daisuke Moriwaki, Komei Fujita, Shota Yasui, Takahiro Hoshino

2019年08月

　概要を見る

In online display advertising, selecting the most effective ad creative (ad
image) for each impression is a crucial task for DSPs (Demand-Side Platforms)
to fulfill their goals (click-through rate, number of conversions, revenue, and
brand improvement). As widely recognized in the marketing literature, the
effect of ad creative changes with the number of repetitive ad exposures. In
this study, we propose an efficient and easy-to-implement ad creative selection
algorithm that explicitly considers user's psychological status when selecting
ad creatives. The proposed system was deployed in a real-world production
environment and tested against the baseline algorithms. The results show
superiority of the proposed algorithm.


Influenza vaccination effectiveness for people aged under 65 years in Japan, 2013/2014 season: Application of a doubly robust method to a large-scale, real-world dataset

Shibata N., Kimura S., Hoshino T., Urushihara H.

BMC Infectious Diseases （BMC Infectious Diseases）  19 （ 1 ） 586 2019年07月

　概要を見る

© 2019 The Author(s). Background: Influenza vaccination is recognized as a primary public health intervention which prevents the illness of patients and relieves the societal burdens of influenza for medical community as well as the economy. To date, no effectiveness study of influenza vaccination has been conducted including a large population with a wide age span, in Japan. Here, we evaluated the clinical effectiveness of influenza vaccination in a large Japanese population. Methods: We conducted a cohort study using a large-scale claims database for employee health care insurance plans. Vaccination status was identified using plan records for influenza vaccination subsidies. We excluded people aged 65 years or more because of the unavailability of vaccination records. Effectiveness of vaccination in preventing influenza and its complication was evaluated with doubly robust methods using inversed probability treatment weighting to adjust health conscious behaviours and other confounders. Results: During the 2013/2014 influenza season, 369,425 subjects with age range from 1 to 64 years were eligible. Vaccination rate was 39.5% and an estimated odds ratio (OR) for influenza onset was 0.775 after doubly robust adjustment. Age-stratified ORs were significantly reduced in all age groups; lowest in subjects aged 1 to 4 years (0.600) and highest in those aged 13 to 19 (0.938). ORs for all the influenza complication outcomes were also statistically significant (0.403-0.709). Conclusions: We confirmed the clinical effectiveness of influenza vaccination in people aged 1 to 64 years. Influenza vaccination significantly prevented influenza onset and was more effective in reducing secondary risks of influenza complications.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Influenza Vaccination Effectiveness in Japan, 2013/2014 Season: an Application of Doubly Robust Method to Large-scale, Real-world Dataset

Natsumi Shibata, Shinya Kimura, Takahiro Hoshino, Hisashi Urushihara

BMC Infectious Diseases 19 （ 586 ）  2019年06月

査読有り

マーケティングと行動経済学：二重過程理論と文脈効果に関するレビューと購買履歴データからの実証分析

星野 崇宏・竹内 真登

行動経済学 12 （ 1 ） 51 - 61 2019年03月

単著, 査読有り

• Access to Document (DOI)

Doubly robust-type estimation of population moments and parameters in biased sampling

Shimizu Y., Hoshino T.

Stat （Stat）  8 （ 1 ）  2019年01月

　概要を見る

We propose an estimation method of population moments or parameters in “biased sampling data” in which for some units of data, not only the variables of interest but also the covariates have missing observations, and the proportion of “missingness” is unknown. We use auxiliary information such as the distribution of covariates or their moments in random sampling data in order to correct the bias. Moreover, with additional assumptions, we can correct the bias even if we have only the moment information of covariates. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a doubly robust-type estimator for biased sampling data. This method provides a consistent estimator if either the regression function or the assignment mechanism is correctly specified. We prove the consistency and semi-parametric efficiency of the doubly robust estimator. Both the simulation and empirical application results demonstrate that the proposed estimation method is more robust than existing methods.

• Access to Document (DOI)

小学1年生から中学3年生を対象とした学力テストの垂直尺度化

山口一大・敷島千鶴・星野崇宏・繁桝算男・赤林英夫

心理学研究 印刷中 2019年

単著, 査読有り

Semiparametric Bayesian multiple imputation for regression models with missing mixed continuous–discrete covariates

Kato R., Hoshino T.

Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics （Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics）  in press 2019年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, 査読有り,  ISSN  00203157

　概要を見る

© 2019, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo. Issues regarding missing data are critical in observational and experimental research. Recently, for datasets with mixed continuous–discrete variables, multiple imputation by chained equation (MICE) has been widely used, although MICE may yield severely biased estimates. We propose a new semiparametric Bayes multiple imputation approach that can deal with continuous and discrete variables. This enables us to overcome the shortcomings of MICE; they must satisfy strong conditions (known as compatibility) to guarantee obtained estimators are consistent. Our simulation studies show the coverage probability of 95% interval calculated using MICE can be less than 1%, while the MSE of the proposed can be less than one-fiftieth. We applied our method to the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset, and the results are consistent with those of the previous works that used panel data other than ADNI database, whereas the existing methods, such as MICE, resulted in inconsistent results.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Doubly Robust-type Estimation of Population Moments or Parameters in Biased Sampling

Takahiro Hoshino and Yuya Shimizu

Stat in press 2019年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, 査読有り

A Bayesian data combination approach for repeated durations under unobserved missing indicators: Application to interpurchase-timing in marketing

Igari R., Hoshino T.

Computational Statistics and Data Analysis （Computational Statistics and Data Analysis）  126   150 - 166 2018年10月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, 査読有り,  ISSN  01679473

　概要を見る

© 2018 Elsevier B.V. Intermittent missingness in repeated duration analysis is common in applied studies, but has not been rigorously considered in statistics. Under intermittent missingness, whether any missing events exist between two observed events is unknown. In other words, the missing indicators are never observed. Thus, if there exist any missing events between two observed events, researchers observe only the cumulative duration of the two or more events. A quasi-Bayes estimation method that utilizes population-level information is used to appropriately estimate the parameters under unobserved intermittent missingness. The proposed model consists of the following: (1) a latent variable model, (2) a latent missing indicator model separating the true and composite durations, (3) mixtures of duration models, and (4) moment restriction from population-level information to deal with nonignorable intermittent missingness. A new estimation procedure is used to simultaneously combine likelihood and the objective function of GMM with the latent variables; this is called Bayesian data combination. The model is applied to the interpurchase duration in database marketing using the purchase history data of Japan; these data capture the purchase incidences and stores.

• Access to Document (DOI)

中高生におけるインターネット上のいじめ被害と加害の関連性：大規模横断調査による検討

浦野由平・大賀真伊・滝沢龍・星野崇宏・下山晴彦

臨床心理学 18 （ 4 ） 486 - 491 2018年07月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, 査読有り

Effectiveness of influenza vaccination for children in Japan: Four-year observational study using a large-scale claims database

Shibata N., Kimura S., Hoshino T., Takeuchi M., Urushihara H.

Vaccine （Vaccine）  36 （ 20 ） 2809 - 2815 2018年05月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, 査読有り,  ISSN  0264410X

　概要を見る

© 2018 Elsevier Ltd Background: To date, few large-scale comparative effectiveness studies of influenza vaccination have been conducted in Japan, since marketing authorization for influenza vaccines in Japan has been granted based only on the results of seroconversion and safety in small-sized populations in clinical trial phases not on the vaccine effectiveness. We evaluated the clinical effectiveness of influenza vaccination for children aged 1–15 years in Japan throughout four influenza seasons from 2010 to 2014 in the real world setting. Methods: We conducted a cohort study using a large-scale claims database for employee health care insurance plans covering more than 3 million people, including enrollees and their dependents. Vaccination status was identified using plan records for the influenza vaccination subsidies. The effectiveness of influenza vaccination in preventing influenza and its complications was evaluated. To control confounding related to influenza vaccination, odds ratios (OR) were calculated by applying a doubly robust method using the propensity score for vaccination. Results: Total study population throughout the four consecutive influenza seasons was over 116,000. Vaccination rate was higher in younger children and in the recent influenza seasons. Throughout the four seasons, the estimated ORs for influenza onset were statistically significant and ranged from 0.797 to 0.894 after doubly robust adjustment. On age stratification, significant ORs were observed in younger children. Additionally, ORs for influenza complication outcomes, such as pneumonia, hospitalization with influenza and respiratory tract diseases, were significantly reduced, except for hospitalization with influenza in the 2010/2011 and 2012/2013 seasons. Conclusions: We confirmed the clinical effectiveness of influenza vaccination in children aged 1–15 years from the 2010/2011 to 2013/2014 influenza seasons. Influenza vaccine significantly prevented the onset of influenza and was effective in reducing its secondary complications.

• Access to Document (DOI)

大規模調査データによる消費者の保険加入行動の理解(1)：属性やリスク資産保有との関係

竹内　真登・星野　崇宏

損害保険研究 79 （ 4 ） 1 - 38 2018年02月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

Inadvertent Learning on a Portal Site: A Longitudinal Field Experiment

Tetsuro Kobayashi, Takahiro Hoshino and Takashisa Suzuki

Communications Research in press 2018年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り

• Access to Document (DOI)

A Survival Analysis Incorporating Auxiliary Information by Bayesian Generalized Method of Moment: Application to Interpurchase-timing Modeling

Ryosuke Igari and Takahiro Hoshino

Journal of the Japanese Society of Computational Statistics 30 （ 1 ） 27 - 44 2017年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, 査読有り

• Access to Document (DOI)

企業ブランドイメージと広告費、財務指標の 関連性に関する実証分析

加藤諒・星野崇宏

日経広告研究所報 294   18 - 25 2017年09月

単著

An Out-of-Pocket Cost Removal Intervention on Fecal Occult Blood Test Attendance

Tabuchi T., Murayama H., Hoshino T., Nakayama T.

American Journal of Preventive Medicine （American Journal of Preventive Medicine）  53 （ 2 ） e51 - e62 2017年08月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, 査読有り,  ISSN  07493797

　概要を見る

© 2017 American Journal of Preventive Medicine Introduction To date, no comparative study has assessed the impact of a cost-removal intervention on fecal occult blood testing (FOBT). In 2012, the Japanese government introduced a nationwide project to remove out-of-pocket costs for FOBT. The study objective was to evaluate the differential impact of the intervention on FOBT attendance in the total population and various subgroups. Methods This study analyzed 309,103 people in national, repeated cross-sectional studies, observed pre- and post-intervention (2010 and 2013), using covariate-adjusted difference-in-differences estimates to compare intervention and no-intervention groups. The outcome measure was uptake of FOBT attendance resulting from the intervention. Stratified analyses were conducted according to sociodemographic and health-related characteristics. Results The intervention was associated with significantly positive uptake of FOBT in both genders, but the impact was greater in women than men: 6.7% (95% CI=5.2, 8.1) for women and 2.7% (95% CI=1.1, 4.3) for men in the covariate-adjusted models. Post-intervention, attendance increased in almost all subgroups in women. However, among men, some socially advantaged subgroups, such as high expenditure, high education, and public officers, showed no effect. Some subgroups such as current smokers and less than high school education were identified as hard-to-reach populations that may be less sensitive to the intervention, irrespective of gender. Conclusions This is the first comparative study of cost-removal intervention for uptake of FOBT. The intervention may increase FOBT attendance. However, the size of the effect is not great, especially in men, and differential effects occurred across subgroups including gender and socioeconomic differences.

• Access to Document (DOI)

ポイント付与と値引きはどちらが効果的か？：マグニチュード効果を導入したプロモーション効果の推定

中川宏道・星野崇宏

流通研究 (日本商業学会基幹査読雑誌) 20 （ 2 ） 1 - 15 2017年07月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, 査読有り

Respondents with low motivation tend to choose middle category: Survey questions on happiness in Japan

Shinya Masuda, Takayuki Sakagami, Hideaki Kawabata, Nobuhiko Kijima and Takahiro Hoshino

Behaviormetrika 44 （ 2 ） 593 - 605 2017年06月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り

• Access to Document (DOI)

Researchers’ choice of the number and range of levels in experiments affects the resultant variance-accounted-for effect size

Okada K., Hoshino T.

Psychonomic Bulletin and Review （Psychonomic Bulletin and Review）  24 （ 2 ） 607 - 616 2017年04月

共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  10699384

　概要を見る

© 2016, Psychonomic Society, Inc. In psychology, the reporting of variance-accounted-for effect size indices has been recommended and widely accepted through the movement away from null hypothesis significance testing. However, most researchers have paid insufficient attention to the fact that effect sizes depend on the choice of the number of levels and their ranges in experiments. Moreover, the functional form of how and how much this choice affects the resultant effect size has not thus far been studied. We show that the relationship between the population effect size and number and range of levels is given as an explicit function under reasonable assumptions. Counterintuitively, it is found that researchers may affect the resultant effect size to be either double or half simply by suitably choosing the number of levels and their ranges. Through a simulation study, we confirm that this relation also applies to sample effect size indices in much the same way. Therefore, the variance-accounted-for effect size would be substantially affected by the basic research design such as the number of levels. Simple cross-study comparisons and a meta-analysis of variance-accounted-for effect sizes would generally be irrational unless differences in research designs are explicitly considered.

• Access to Document (DOI)

顧客行動の多様性変数を利用した購買行動の予測

新美　潤一郎・星野　崇宏

人工知能学会論文誌 32 （ 2 ） B-G63_1 - B-G63_9 2017年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, 査読有り

• Access to Document (DOI)

プロセスシミュレーションを伴うコンジョイント測定による購買予測：写真提示を用いた操作と追跡調査による予測精度向上の確認

竹内　真登・星野　崇宏

行動計量学 44 （ 1 ） 45 - 56 2017年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, 査読有り

Predicting purchases with using the variety of customer behaviors: Analysis of the purchase history and the browsing history by deep learning

Niimi J., Hoshino T.

Transactions of the Japanese Society for Artificial Intelligence （Transactions of the Japanese Society for Artificial Intelligence）  32 （ 2 ）  2017年

ISSN  13460714

　概要を見る

© 2017, Japanese Society for Artificial Intelligence. All rights reserved. Nowadays, along with the popularity of E-Commerce, the marketing strategy of retail stores has been more complicated with O2O or Omni-channel. Therefore, Customer Relationship Management (CRM) is one of the important issue for the retail stores. It can be difficult to predict customers future behavior with the simple quantitive information such as purchase frequency since each customers are widely diversified. Although the company can obtain the variety of customers information from their online activity, the use of access history is still limited. In this paper, we defined “the variety of user access patterns” collected from their web browsing history and it shows the patterns they visit the website. Finally, we verified its effectiveness with developing a DNN model to predict customers future behavior.

効果的な効果検証？：非無作為化デザインによる刑事政策の因果効果の推定

高橋哲・只野智弘・星野崇宏

更生保護学研究 (日本更生保護学会) 9   52 - 74 2016年12月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, 査読有り

Online-Offlineチャネルにおける消費者の購買間隔と購買金額の同時モデリング

猪狩良介・星野　崇宏

オペレーションズ・リサーチ 61 （ 9 ） 589 - 599 2016年09月

単著, 査読有り

商品カテゴリー購買と複数ブランド購買の段階型同時分析モデル

宮崎　慧・星野　崇宏

行動計量学 43 （ 2 ） 167 - 180 2016年09月

単著, 査読有り

ユーザ別アクセス・パターン情報の多様性を用いた顧客行動の予測とモデリング

新美 潤一郎・星野 崇宏

応用統計学 in press （ 3 ） 121 - 143 2016年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り

• Access to Document (DOI)

A National Survey of Psychology Education Programs and Their Content in Japan

星野 崇宏

Japanese Psychological Research （Japanese Psychological Research）  in press （ S1 ） 4 - 18 2016年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  00215368

　概要を見る

© 2016 Japanese Psychological Association. Published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd. This study reports the results of a national survey of psychology programs in Japan, conducted by the Committee on the Education and Research of the Japanese Psychological Association, based on 443 responses from program heads of 378 colleges, universities, and graduate schools. We analyzed the data by institution and type of degree program. The results indicated that: (a) undergraduate-level psychological education in Japan is mainly provided by private universities (which account for 71% of all psychology graduates at this level), while Master's (60%) and Ph.D. (83%) programs are mainly provided by national and public universities; (b) the largest groups of faculty members by specialization are in clinical psychology and in developmental and educational psychology; (c) the dominant forms of teaching are lectures and seminars; and (d) most psychology major programs in Japan aim to improve students' academic and generic skills. Finally, we suggest how psychology programs in Japan can reform curriculum and better improve students' academic skills on the basis of their generic skills.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Are partial workplace smoking bans as effective as complete smoking bans? A national population-based study of smoke-free policy among Japanese employees

Tabuchi T., Hoshino T., Nakayama T.

Nicotine & Tobacco Research. （Nicotine and Tobacco Research）  in press （ 5 ） 1265 - 1273 2015年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  14622203

　概要を見る

© The Author 2015. Introduction: Although complete workplace smoking bans are generally recommended rather than partial bans, the latter are widespread in many countries, especially Japan. Our objective was to compare complete workplace smoking bans and partial bans for associations with employee smoking and secondhand smoke (SHS)-related discomfort/ill-health. We also evaluated complete bans versus no ban and partial bans versus no ban. Methods: Eleven thousand ninety eligible employees (weighted number: 34 353 241) aged 20-64 years in 2011 (response rate: 62.5%) were analyzed using a nationally-representative, population- based cross-sectional study. Adjusted prevalence ratios for self-reported current smoking and SHS-related discomfort/ill-health according to workplace smoke-free policies were calculated, using conventional regression and propensity score (PS) weighting (targeting population of average treatment effect among both treated [TET] and untreated [TEU]). Results: Both conventional regressions and PS weighting analyses showed complete bans were significantly associated with lower prevalence of current smoking and perceived SHS-related discomfort/ ill-health among nonsmokers than partial or no ban. In contrast, partial bans were not significantly associated with either outcome compared with no ban. Using several PS trimming levels, we found interesting differences between TET and TEU in a comparison between partial and no ban: that is, significant associations in TET estimations, but none in TEU estimations. Conclusions: Although complete smoking bans were associated with lower levels of employee smoking and SHS-related discomfort/ill-health compared with no smoking ban, partial bans were not. Findings from PS weighting of TEU suggest that partial workplace bans may not be any more effective for Japanese employees than no ban. Therefore, complete bans may be strongly recommended for future implementation, but careful interpretation of the data is necessary because of the cross-sectional study design.

• Access to Document (DOI)

反復横断データから消費者セグメントの構成比の変化・生成・消滅を理解するための潜在クラスモデルと段階推定法

加藤　諒, 星野　崇宏, 堀江　尚之

マーケティング・サイエンス 23   35 - 59 2015年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, 査読有り

• Access to Document (DOI)

解釈レベルの操作を伴うコンジョイント測定法の開発：マーケティングリサーチに生じるバイアスの排除に関する実証分析

竹内　真登, 星野 崇宏

マーケティング・サイエンス 23   15 - 34 2015年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り

• Access to Document (DOI)

Awareness and use of electronic cigarettes and heat-not-burn tobacco products in Japan

星野 崇宏

Addiction （Addiction）  in press （ 4 ） 706 - 713 2015年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  09652140

　概要を見る

© 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction. Background and Aims: In addition to some electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes), new heat-not-burn tobacco products Ploom and iQOS have recently begun to be sold by tobacco companies. These products are regulated differently in Japan, depending on whether the contents are liquid or tobacco leaf. Our objective was to estimate percentages of awareness and use of e-cigarettes and heat-not-burn tobacco products among the Japanese population, including minors. Design and Setting: An internet survey (randomly sampled research agency panellists) with a propensity score adjustment for "being a respondent in an internet survey" using a nationally representative sample in Japan. Participants: A total of 8240 respondents aged 15-69 years in 2015 (4084 men and 4156 women). Measurements: Adjusted percentages of awareness and use of e-cigarettes (nicotine or non-nicotine e-cigarettes) and heat-not-burn products among total participants; product types and percentages ever used among e-cigarettes ever users. Findings: Of respondents in Japan, 48% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 47-49] were aware of e-cigarettes and heat-not-burn tobacco products, 6.6% (95% CI = 6.1-7.1) had ever used, 1.3% (95% CI = 1.0-1.5) had used in the last 30 days and 1.3% (95% CI = 1.1-1.6) had experience of > 50 sessions. Seventy-two per cent (95% CI = 69-76) of ever users used non-nicotine e-cigarettes, while 33% (95% CI = 30-37) of them used nicotine e-cigarettes, which has the majority share world-wide; 7.8% (95% CI = 5.5-10.0) and 8.4% (95% CI = 6.1-10.7) of them used the new devices, Ploom and iQOS, respectively, with a relatively higher percentage among the younger population. Conclusions: Approximately half the respondents in a Japanese internet survey were aware of e-cigarettes and heat-not-burn tobacco products, 6.6% had ever used. More than 70% of ever users used non-nicotine e-cigarettes, the sale of which is not legally prohibited, even to minors, in Japan, and 33% of them used nicotine e-cigarettes; 3.5% of never smoking men and 1.3% of never smoking women had ever used e-cigarettes. Corresponding figures for use in the last 30 days were 0.6% and 0.3%, predominantly non-nicotine e-cigarettes.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Developmental Trajectories of Social Skills during Early Childhood and Links to Parenting Practices in a Japanese Sample

星野 崇宏

PLoS ONE （PLoS ONE）  10(8) （ e0135357 ） e0135357 2015年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  1932-6203

　概要を見る

Copyright: © 2015 Takahashi et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This study used data from a nationwide survey in Japan to model the developmental course of social skills during early childhood. The goals of this study were to identify longitudinal profiles of social skills between 2 and 5 years of age using a group-based trajectory approach, and to investigate whether and to what extent parenting practices at 2 years of age predicted developmental trajectories of social skills during the preschool period. A relatively large sample of boys and girls (N > 1,000) was assessed on three social skill dimensions (Cooperation, Self-control, and Assertion) at four time points (ages 2, 3, 4, and 5), and on four parenting practices (cognitive and emotional involvement, avoidance of restriction and punishment, social stimulation, and social support for parenting) at age 2. The results indicated that for each social skill dimension, group-based trajectory models identified three distinct trajectories: low, moderate, and high. Multinomial regression analysis revealed that parenting practice variables showed differential contributions to development of child social skills. Specifically, Cooperation and Assertion were promoted by cognitive and emotional involvement, Self-control by social stimulation, and Assertion by avoidance of restriction and punishment. Abundant social support for parenting was not associated with higher child social skills trajectories. We found heterogeneity in developmental profiles of social skills during the preschool ages, and we identified parenting practices that contributed to different patterns of social skills development. We discussed the implications of higher-quality parenting practices on the improvement of child social skills across early childhood.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Long-term radiographic evaluation of risk factors related to implant treatment: suggestion for alternative statistical analysis of marginal bone loss

星野 崇宏

Clinical Oral Implants Research （Clinical Oral Implants Research）  in press （ 10 ） 1283 - 1289 2015年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  09057161

　概要を見る

© 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd Objective: Secular change in marginal bone loss (MBL), which is the index adopted for implant success criteria, has often been used to evaluate risk factors. However, the need to revise these criteria has recently been indicated due to rapid developments in implant treatment. The purpose of this study was to evaluate risk factors by analyzing MBL with an alternative statistical method. Material and methods: The analyses were performed on the outcomes of 366 patients with 1,902 implants during an average follow-up period of 84.8 months (with a maximum follow-up of 258 months). Instead of evaluating annual MBL, time was calculated as one of the explanatory variables because the correlation between MBL and time was small (correlation coefficient of 0.09010). Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was used for exploratory assessment of each factor, and multiple regression analysis was then utilized to identify risk factors. The multiple regression analysis was performed twice, once among all implants and another in which one implant per patient was randomly selected. Results: As a result of multiple regression analysis, smoking habits showed a significant effect on MBL. Age, sex, diabetes mellitus, implant positions, guided bone regeneration, and sinus floor elevation did not affect MBL. IMZ ® implants were associated with significantly higher MBL than were ANKYLOS ® and SPI ® implants. There was no significant difference between Straumann ® and other implants. Conclusion: Our results showed that another statistical process, which eliminated the effect of time rather than comparing annual MBL, could be applied to evaluate MBL because the correlation between MBL and time was small.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Complete workplace indoor smoking ban and smoking behavior among male workers and female non-smoking workers' husbands: A pseudo-cohort study of Japanese public workers

Takahiro Tabuchi, Takahiro Hoshino, Hitomi Hama, Kayo Nakata (Yamada), Yuri Ito, Akiko Ioka, Akiko Ikeda, Tomio Nakayama, Isao Miyashiro, and Hideaki Tsukuma

BioMed Research International （BioMed Research International）  2014 （ Article ID 303917 ） 303917 2014年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  23146133

　概要を見る

A pseudo cohort study using national cross-sections (2001, 2004, 2007, and 2010) was conducted to examine differences in smoking prevalence under different smoking ban policies such as a complete workplace indoor smoking ban (early or recent implementation) and a partial smoking ban among male public workers and husbands of female nonsmoking public workers. The effectiveness of smoking bans was estimated by difference-in-differences (DID) with age group stratification. The results varied considerably by age and implementation period. Although DID estimates (positive value of DID estimate represents smoking cessation percentage) for both smoking bans on total male smoking were not significant, the over-40 age group indicated a significant DID estimate of 5.0 (95% CI: 0.2, 9.8) for the recent smoking ban. For female workers' husbands' smoking, the over-40 age group indicated positive, but not significant, DID estimates for the early and recent smoking bans of 7.2 (-4.7, 19.2) and 8.4 (-2.0, 18.7), respectively. A complete indoor workplace smoking ban, particularly one recently implemented among public office workers aged over 40, may reduce male workers' smoking and female workers' husbands' smoking compared with a partial smoking ban, but the conclusion remains tentative because of methodological weaknesses in the study. © 2014 Takahiro Tabuchi et al.

• Access to Document (DOI)

階層ベイズ動的サンプル・セレクションモデルによるWebサイトへの誘導とサイト閲覧行動の同時分析

猪狩　良介, 星野　崇宏

日本統計学会誌 43 （ 2 ） 185 - 214 2014年03月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り

継続時間と離散選択の同時分析のための変量効果モデルとその選択バイアス補正: Webログデータからの潜在顧客への広告販促戦略立案

星野　崇宏

日本統計学会誌 43   41-58 2013年09月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, 査読有り

Does removal of out-of-pocket costs for cervical and breast cancer screening work? A quasi-experimental study to evaluate the impact on attendance, attendance inequality and average cost per uptake of a Japanese government intervention

Takahiro Tabuchi, Takahiro Hoshino , Tomio Nakayama, Yuri Ito, Akiko Ioka, Isao Miyashiro, Hideaki Tsukuma

International Journal of Cancer （International Journal of Cancer）  133 （ 4 ） 972 - 983 2013年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  00207136

　概要を見る

Reducing out-of-pocket costs is known to improve mammography attendance, but an evidence gap remains concerning Pap smear testing. The Japanese government implemented a politically determined intervention to remove out-of-pocket costs for Pap smear tests and mammography attendance, costing US$148 million, in 2009. It targeted women when they reached the first year of a 5-year age group (i.e., 20, 25, 30 years) with the aim of reducing attendance inequality. Our objective is to evaluate the intervention in terms of uptake and average cost per uptake for cancer screening attendance and to assess socioeconomic inequalities in cancer screening attendance pre- and postintervention. A quasi-experimental study utilizing national repeated cross sections, observed pre- and postintervention, which compared intervention and comparison groups by the Difference-in-Differences method, was conducted. Outcome measures were uptake of cancer screening attendance resulting from the intervention with average cost per uptake and broad inequality indicators for cancer screening attendance according to socioeconomic inequality. In total, 34,043 age-eligible, noninstitutionalized women were analyzed. Uptake among the overall population was 13.9% point in the age- and income-adjusted model for Pap smear and 9.8% point for mammography, with an average cost of US$139 per uptake. The intervention increased inequality indicators in Pap smear attendance (more than +100%) but decreased inequality in mammography attendance (ranging from -12.9 to -74.1%) within the intervention group. In conclusion, removing out-of-pocket costs improves female cancer screening uptake in Japan but may not be cost-saving. Although cost removal reduces inequalities in attendance for mammography, it appears to increase inequalities in Pap smear attendance. What's new? Out-of-pocket costs may be a barrier to cancer screening, though their removal in some countries has met with mixed results. Here, analysis of uptake, government expenditure, and socioeconomic inequalities associated with a cost-free breast and cervical cancer screening program introduced in Japan in 2009 indicates that while attendance increased for both types of screening, overall spending for the program was considerable. Furthermore, while inequalities in attendance decreased for breast cancer screening, they increased for cervical cancer screening. Copyright © 2013 UICC.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Bias in Factor Score Regression and a Simple Solution

Takahiro Hoshino, Peter M Bentler

Analysis of Mixed Data : Methods & Applications (A.R. de Leon & K. C. C. Carriere,eds)    43 - 61 2013年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り

階層ベイズ動的モデルによるブランドスイッチングの分析: グレンジャー因果性検定の利用

宮崎　慧, 星野 崇宏

マーケティング・サイエンス 21 （ 1 ） 11 - 35 2013年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り

• Access to Document (DOI)

Validity and Reliability of the Social Skill Scale (SSS) as an Index of Social Competence for Preschool Children

Tokie Anme, Ryoji, Yuka Sugisawa, Emiko Tanaka, Taeko Watanabe, Takahiro Hoshino

Journal of Health Sciences 3   5 - 11 2013年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り

非集計Webアクセスデータを用いたサイト普及モデル : 多時点・複数サイトの階層ベイズモデリング

猪狩 良介, 星野 崇宏

マーケティングサイエンス （日本マーケティング・サイエンス学会）  20 （ 1 ） 43 - 67 2012年

共著, 査読有り

• Access to Document (DOI)

Conscientiousness mediates the relation between perceived parental socialization and self-rated health

Yusuke Takahashi, Robert W. Brent, Takahiro Hoshino

Psychology and Health （Psychology and Health）  24 （ 9 ） 1048 - 1061 2012年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  08870446

　概要を見る

The pathways between parenting behaviours, personality and physical health have all been separately studied. Prior research has paid little attention to the indirect effects of personality in the path between parenting behaviours and better health. The purpose of this study was to explore the mediational effects of conscientiousness on the relationships between parental socialisation of responsibility and self-rated health, and to examine potential age differences in this mediational pathway. In total, 736 female and 749 male members across Japan participated in this study. They were divided into three groups by age category: younger-, middle-aged and older-aged. Conscientiousness and health were concurrently rated, while parental socialisation of responsibility was retrospectively assessed. Our analyses revealed that parental socialisation of responsibility is positively associated with conscientiousness and self-rated health, that conscientiousness is positively associated with self-rated health, and that conscientiousness fully mediated the effect of parental socialisation of responsibility on self-rated health. The mediational links were consistent across younger, middle-aged and older-aged cohorts. Our findings suggest that greater parental socialisation of responsibility relates to higher conscientiousness, and consequently healthier adults. These findings imply that parental behaviours could be a plausible target for intervention to foster the development of conscientiousness and better health. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

• Access to Document (DOI)

[New trends in research on personality traits: contributions to economics and epidemiology].

Takahashi Y, Yamagata S, Hoshino T

Shinrigaku kenkyu : The Japanese journal of psychology 82 （ 1 ） 63 - 76 2011年04月

ISSN  0021-5236

New trends in research on personality traits: Contributions to economics and epidemiology

Takahashi Y., Yamagata S., Hoshino T.

Shinrigaku Kenkyu （Shinrigaku Kenkyu）  82 （ 1 ） 63 - 76 2011年04月

ISSN  00215236

　概要を見る

Research has shown that personality traits have strong predictive validity for economic variables (e.g., income, work attainment) and epidemiological variables (e.g., longevity, physical health), as well as for psychological variables such as problem behaviors, and mental disorders. Importantly, personality traits are predictive even after controlling for socioeconomic status and cognitive abilities. The authors believe that current personality research in Japan almost completely overlooks this perspective. In this article, the authors review these new trends in personality psychological research. They propose a model for research involving A (accurate assessments), B (big samples), C (controlling for covariates and confounders), D (developmental trajectories), and E (economic and epidemiological variables). They outline three future directions to embody personality psychology for prediction, prevention, public wealth, and population health.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Neural correlates of foreign-language learning in childhood: A 3-year longitudinal ERP study

Ojima S., Nakamura N., Matsuba-Kurita H., Hoshino T., Hagiwara H.

Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience （Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience）  23 （ 1 ） 183 - 199 2011年01月

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  0898929X

　概要を見る

A foreign language (a language not spoken in one's community) is difficult to master completely. Early introduction of foreign-language (FL) education during childhood is becoming a standard in many countries. However, the neural process of child FL learning still remains largely unknown. We longitudinally followed 322 school-age children with diverse FL proficiency for three consecutive years, and acquired children's ERP responses to FL words that were semantically congruous or incongruous with the preceding picture context. As FL proficiency increased, various ERP components previously reported in mother-tongue (L1) acquisition (such as a broad negativity, an N400, and a late positive component) appeared sequentially, critically in an identical order to L1 acquisition. This finding was supported not only by cross-sectional analyses of children at different proficiency levels but also by longitudinal analyses of the same children over time. Our data are consistent with the hypothesis that FL learning in childhood reproduces identical developmental stages in an identical order to L1 acquisition, suggesting that the nature of the child's brain itself may determine the normal course of FL learning. Future research should test the generalizability of the results in other aspects of language such as syntax. © 2010 Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Effect of Noncognitive Skills and Related Personality Traits to Productivity in Labor Market: A Review

Takahiro Hoshino

The Annual Report of Educational Psychology in Japan 50   164 - 175 2011年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

パーソナリティ特性研究の新展開と疫学・経済学など他領域への貢献の可能性

高橋　雄介, 山形　伸二, 星野 崇宏

心理学研究 82 （ 1 ） 63 - 76 2011年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, 査読有り

Propensity Score Adjustment for Internet Panel Surveys of Voting Behavior: A Case in Japan

Tetsuro Kobayashi,Takahiro Hoshino

Japanese Journal of Electoral Studies 27 （ 2 ） 104 - 117 2011年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り

Age and amount of exposure to a foreign language during childhood: Behavioral and ERP data on the semantic comprehension of spoken English by Japanese children

Shiro Ojima,Naoko Nakamura,Hiroko Matsuba-Kurita,Takahiro Hoshino,Hiroko Hagiwara

Neuroscience Research （Neuroscience Research）  70 （ 2 ） 197 - 205 2011年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  0168-0102

　概要を見る

Children's foreign-language (FL) learning is a matter of much social as well as scientific debate. Previous behavioral research indicates that starting language learning late in life can lead to problems in phonological processing. Inadequate phonological capacity may impede lexical learning and semantic processing (phonological bottleneck hypothesis). Using both behavioral and neuroimaging data, here we examine the effects of age of first exposure (AOFE) and total hours of exposure (HOE) to English, on 350 Japanese primary-school children's semantic processing of spoken English. Children's English proficiency scores and N400 event-related brain potentials (ERPs) were analyzed in multiple regression analyses. The results showed (1) that later, rather than earlier, AOFE led to higher English proficiency and larger N400 amplitudes, when HOE was controlled for; and (2) that longer HOE led to higher English proficiency and larger N400 amplitudes, whether AOFE was controlled for or not. These data highlight the important role of amount of exposure in FL learning, and cast doubt on the view that starting FL learning earlier always produces better results. © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd and the Japan Neuroscience Society.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Statistical Significance Testing with Mahalanobis Distance for Thresholds Estimated from Constant Stimuli Method

Takehiro Nagai, Takahiro Hoshino, Keiji Uchikawa

Seeing and Perceiving （Seeing and Perceiving）  24 （ 2 ） 91 - 124 2011年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  1878-4755

　概要を見る

The t-test and the analysis of variance are commonly used as statistical significance testing methods. However, they cannot assess the significance of differences between thresholds within individual observers estimated from the constant stimuli method; these thresholds are not defined as averages of samples, but they are rather defined as functions of parameters of psychometric functions fitted to participants' responses. Moreover, the statistics necessary for these statistical testing methods cannot be derived. In this paper, we propose a new statistical testing method to assess the statistical significance of differences between thresholds estimated from the constant stimuli method. The new method can assess not only threshold differences but also main effects and interactions in multifactor experiments, exploiting the asymptotic normality of maximum likelihood estimators and the characteristics of multivariate normal distributions. This proposed method could be used in similar cases to the analysis of variance for thresholds estimated from the adjustment method and the staircase method. Finally, we present some data on simulations in which we tested assumptions, power and type I error of the proposed method. © 2011 BRILL.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Overview of the Japan children's study 2004-2009; Cohort study of early childhood development

Yamagata Z., Maeda T., Anme T., Sadato N., Koizumi H., Anji Y., Shiotani Y., Iwasaki M., Kutsuki A., Kuroki M., Ichikawa N., Morita T., Koike H., Morito Y., Cheng S., Ishida H., Yanaka H., Tanaka D., Namba K., Fukushi T., Toyoda H., Kimura-Ohba S., Sawada A., Wong K., Sakakihara Y., Kawaguchi H., Matsuishi T., Sogon S., Tomiwa K., Awaya T., Matuzawa S., Itakura S., Okada M., Komada Y., Yamamoto H., Yamakawa N., Bonno M., Momoi M., Yamagata T., Shiokawa H., Daisuke N Saito, Uchiyama H., Ozaki T., Ogura T., Ikeda H., Negayama K., Nakagawa K., Morimoto K., Kobayashi K., Koeda T., Tamaru T., Seki A., Terakawa S., Takeuchi A., Konishi Y., Sakura O., Kawai M., Egami S., Hoshino T., Yato Y.

Journal of Epidemiology （Journal of Epidemiology）  20 （ SUPPL.2 ） S397 - S403 2010年12月

ISSN  09175040

　概要を見る

Background: There are still a lot of unknown aspects about the childhood development of sociability which are based on neuroscientific basis. Purpose of the Japan Children's Study (JCS) was to verify the normal process of child development of sociability; the trajectory and factors related development of sociability, and to collect findings and integrate the knowledge to make the plan of long-term and large scale cohort study. Methods: A child cohort study underway in Japan since 2005. There are the cohort study including a infant cohort study at age of 4 months to 30 months and a preschool cohort study at age of 5 years old to 8 years old. Questionnaires, direct observation of children and cognitive testing were performed. Results: In infant cohort study, 465 infants were recruited at 4 months and 367 children were followed up to 30 months, follow up rate was 78.9% and in the preschool cohort study, total 192 children (112 at 2005 and 80 at 2007) at age of 5 years old and 169 followed up to 6 years (follow up rate was 88.0%), and 79 children were followed up to 8 years old (follow up rate was 70.5%) old. Several new measurements to evaluate child sociability were developed. Some factors related to development of child sociability were found for example the 'praise' was related to child sociability in cohort study based on neuroscience findings. Conclusions: Though the trajectory of child sociability development were not clarified, some significant factors related to development of sociability, and the basic findings to conduct a long-term and large scale cohort study were provided. © 2010 by the Japan Epidemiological Association.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Gender differences of children's social skills and parenting using Interaction Rating Scale (IRS)

Anme T., Shinohara R., Sugisawa Y., Tong L., Tanaka E., Watanabe T., Onda Y., Kawashima Y., Hirano M., Tomisaki E., Mochizuki H., Morita K., Gan-Yadam A., Yato Y., Yamakawa N., Yamagata Z., Koizumi H., Wong K., Anji Y., Ishida H., Iwasaki M., Kutsuki A., Kuroki M., Koike H., Saito D., Sawada A., Shiotani Y., Tanaka D., Cheng S., Toyoda H., Namba K., Fukushi T., Morita T., Yanaka H., Sakakihara Y., Morimoto K., Nakagawa K., Itakura S., Tomiwa K., Sogon S., Matsuishi T., Ogura T., Okada M., Ikeda H., Sadato N., Momoi M., Shiokawa H., Yamagata T., Maeda T., Ozaki T., Anme T., Hoshino T., Sakura O., Konishi Y., Kobayashi K., Koeda T., Tamaru T., Terakawa S., Seki A., Takeuchi A., Kawaguchi H., Egami S., Komada Y., Yamamoto H., Bonno M., Yamakawa N., Kawai M., Yato Y., Negayama K.

Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences （Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences）  2 （ 2 ） 260 - 268 2010年10月

ISSN  18770428

　概要を見る

Background: The purpose of this paper is to describe the gender differences of the Interaction Rating Scale (IRS) as an evidence-based practical index of children's social skills and parenting. Methods: The participants in our study, which was conducted as part of a Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) cohort study project, were 370 dyads of children with their caregivers were followed up and surveyed at aged 18, 30, and 42 month. The participants completed the five minute interaction session and were observed using the IRS. Results: The results indicated the gender differences of IRS scores. Girls got rather high score at all ages. IRS can measure children's social skill development and parenting with high validity. Along with the qualitative differences of interaction between boys and girls, the IRS is effective in describing features of social skill development and parenting. Conclusion: The IRS provides further evidence of the fact that in order to study children's social skill development, it is important to evaluate various features of the caregiver-child interaction as a predictor of social skills. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Determining the direction of the path using a Bayesian semiparametric model

Kei Miyazaki, Takahiro Hoshino, Kazuo Shigemasu

Proceedings of 19th International Conference on Computational Statistics 19   1429 - 1436 2010年

研究論文（国際会議プロシーディングス）, 共著, 査読有り

Happiness is unique: A latent structure of emotion recognition traits revealed by statistical model comparison

Atsunobu Suzuki, Takahiro Hoshino, Kazuo Shigemasu

Personality and Individual Differences （Personality and Individual Differences）  48 （ 2 ） 196 - 201 2010年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  01918869

　概要を見る

Is an individual who is sensitive to the facial expressions of a given emotion also sensitive to those of other emotions? This study addressed this simple but fundamental question by examining the latent structure underlying the sensitivity scores for basic emotions expressed by faces (Suzuki, Hoshino, & Shigemasu, 2006a). Eight hundred and five participants took part in the study, and for each participant, the sensitivity scores for happiness, fear, anger, disgust, and sadness were calculated. Variants of a single- factor model were fit to the matrix of correlations among the five sensitivity scores. A solution for the best-fit model indicated an equal contribution from the single factor to the four negative emotions (path coefficient = 0.635) and a smaller contribution to happiness (0.183). Our results imply minimally over- lapped mechanisms underlying the recognition of positive and negative emotions. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Web調査の偏りの補正: 行動経済学における調査研究への適用

星野　崇宏

関西大学ソシオネットワーク戦略研究機構 ワーキングペーパー 97   1 - 18 2010年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著

調査不能がある場合の標本調査におけるセミパラメトリック推定と感度分析: 日本人の国民性調査データへの適用

星野　崇宏

統計数理 58 （ 1 ） 3 - 23 2010年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, 査読有り

Validity of caregivers' reports on head trauma due to falls in young children aged less than 2 years.

Fujiwara T, Nagase H, Okuyama M, Hoshino T, Aoki K, Nagashima T, Nakamura H

Clinical medicine insights. Pediatrics 4   11 - 8 2010年

潜在構造モデルによる複数カテゴリのセグメンテーション

小島 早都子, 田村 玄, 星野 崇宏

マーケティングサイエンス （日本マーケティング・サイエンス学会）  17 （ 1・2 ） 13 - 29 2009年03月

共著, 査読有り

就学前児の社会的スキルと広汎性発達障害(PDD)との関連

篠原　亮次, 星野　崇宏, 杉澤　悠圭, 童　連, 田中　笑子, 渡辺　多恵子, 恩田　陽子, 安梅　勅江

厚生の指標 12   20 - 25 2009年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 単著, 査読有り

A New Concurrent Calibration Method for Nonequivalent Group Design under Nonrandom Assignment

Kei Miyazaki, Takahiro Hoshino, Shin-ichi Mayekawa, Kazuo Shigemasu

Psychometrika （Psychometrika）  74 （ 1 ） 1 - 19 2009年

共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  0033-3123

　概要を見る

This study proposes a new item parameter linking method for the common-item nonequivalent groups design in item response theory (IRT). Previous studies assumed that examinees are randomly assigned to either test form. However, examinees can frequently select their own test forms and tests often differ according to examinees' abilities. In such cases, concurrent calibration or multiple group IRT modeling without modeling test form selection behavior can yield severely biased results. We proposed a model wherein test form selection behavior depends on test scores and used a Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. This method provided adequate estimates of testing parameters. © 2008 The Psychometric Society.

• Access to Document (DOI)

A Bayesian Semiparametric Item Response Model with Dirichlet Process Priors

Kei Miyazaki, Takahiro Hoshino

Psychometrika （Psychometrika）  74 （ 3 ） 375 - 393 2009年

共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  0033-3123

　概要を見る

In Item Response Theory (IRT), item characteristic curves (ICCs) are illustrated through logistic models or normal ogive models, and the probability that examinees give the correct answer is usually a monotonically increasing function of their ability parameters. However, since only limited patterns of shapes can be obtained from logistic models or normal ogive models, there is a possibility that the model applied does not fit the data. As a result, the existing method can be rejected because it cannot deal with various item response patterns. To overcome these problems, we propose a new semiparametric IRT model using a Dirichlet process mixture logistic distribution. Our method does not rely on assumptions but only requires that the ICCs be a monotonically nondecreasing function; that is, our method can deal with more types of item response patterns than the existing methods, such as the one-parameter normal ogive models or the two- or three-parameter logistic models. We conducted two simulation studies whose results indicate that the proposed method can express more patterns of shapes for ICCs and can estimate the ability parameters more accurately than the existing parametric and nonparametric methods. The proposed method has also been applied to Facial Expression Recognition data with noteworthy results. © 2009 The Psychometric Society.

• Access to Document (DOI)

ネット上の意見表明のバイアスとその補正について(<特集>情報の信頼性評価)

星野 崇宏

人工知能学会誌 （社団法人人工知能学会）  23 （ 6 ） 791 - 797 2008年11月

単著,  ISSN  9128085

就学前児の社会的スキル : コホート研究による因子構造の安定性と予測的妥当性の検討

高橋 雄介, 岡田 謙介, 星野 崇宏, 安梅 勅江

教育心理学研究 （Japanese Journal of Educational Psychology）  56 （ 1 ） 81 - 92 2008年03月

共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  215015

　概要を見る

Social skills are positive abilities that help children to interact with others in various situations. Many previous studies have found that failure in acquiring social skills or atypical development of social skills is predictive of later problem behavior, social maladjustment, and low academic achievement. Currently, however, few scales exist to measure the social skills of Japanese preschoolers. In Study 1, a large-scale cohort study was used to develop a scale that enables an appropriate measure of individual differences in preschoolers' social skills. The obtained 3-factor structure was consistent with published studies done in Western countries, and the scale was found to have excellent internal consistency and temporal stability. In Study 2, the relation between the newly developed scale, problem behavior, and autistic tendencies was analyzed. The results confirmed that the present scale demonstrates both concurrent and predictive validity. It is possible that early intervention based on screening with this scale might assist children to develop soundly.

• Access to Document (DOI)

ブランドイメージに関する広告政策を策定するための階層ベイズ的な選択モデルとその応用

星野 崇宏

マーケティングサイエンス （日本マーケティング・サイエンス学会）  15 （ 1・2 ） 27 - 44 2008年03月

単著, 査読有り

組織風土と不祥事に関する実証分析

星野　崇宏

一橋経済学 2 （ 2 ） 53 - 73 2008年

単著

Standard errors of estimated latent variables with estimated structural parameters

Takahiro Hoshino, Kazuo Shigemasu

Applied Psychological Measurement （Applied Psychological Measurement）  32 （ 2 ） 181 - 189 2008年

共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  01466216

　概要を見る

The authors propose a concise formula to evaluate the standard error of the estimated latent variable score when the true values of the structural parameters are not known and must be estimated. The formula can be applied to factor scores in factor analysis or ability parameters in item response theory, without bootstrap or Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The proposed method is valid when both the number of items and the number of subjects are large. However, simulation results suggest that the proposed method provides valid estimates for standard errors of latent abilities even when the numbers of items and subjects are not large. © 2008 Sage Publications.

• Access to Document (DOI)

A Bayesian Propensity Score Adjustment for Latent Variable Modeling and MCMC algorithm

Takahiro Hoshino

Computational Statistics & Data Analysis （Computational Statistics and Data Analysis）  52 （ 3 ） 1413 - 1429 2008年

単著, 査読有り,  ISSN  01679473

　概要を見る

The estimation of the differences among groups in observational studies is frequently inaccurate owing to a bias caused by differences in the distributions of covariates. In order to estimate the average treatment effects when the treatment variable is binary, Rosenbaum and Rubin [1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70, 41-55] proposed an adjustment method for pre-treatment variables using propensity scores. Imbens [2000. The role of the propensity score in estimating dose-response functions. Biometrika 87, 706-710] extended the propensity score methodology for estimation of average treatment effects with multivalued treatments. However, these studies focused only on estimating the marginal mean structure. In many substantive sciences such as the biological and social sciences, a general estimation method is required to deal with more complex analyses other than regression, such as testing group differences on latent variables. For latent variable models, the EM algorithm or the traditional Monte Carlo methods are necessary. However, in propensity score adjustment, these methods cannot be used because the full distribution is not specified. In this paper, we propose a quasi-Bayesian estimation method for general parametric models that integrate out the distributions of covariates using propensity scores. Although the proposed Bayes estimates are shown to be consistent, they can be calculated by existing Markov chain Monte Carlo methods such as Gibbs sampler. The proposed method is useful to estimate parameters in latent variable models, while the previous methods were unable to provide valid estimates for complex models such as latent variable models. We also illustrated the procedure using the data obtained from the US National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSY1979-2002) for estimating the effect of maternal smoking during pregnancy on the development of the child's cognitive functioning. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Bayesian Significance Testing and Multiple Comparisons from MCMC Outputs

Takahiro Hoshino

Computational Statistics & Data Analysis （Computational Statistics and Data Analysis）  52 （ 7 ） 3543-3559. - 3559 2008年

単著, 査読有り,  ISSN  01679473

　概要を見る

This article proposes a Bayesian method to directly evaluate and test hypotheses in multiple comparisons. Transformation and integration over the coordinates relevant to the hypothesis are shown to enable us to directly test the hypotheses expressed as a linear equation of a parameter vector, given a linear constraint. When the conditional posterior distribution of the parameter vector we are interested in is the multivariate normal distribution, the proposed method can be applied to calculate the p-value of hypotheses pertaining to the parameters in any complex model such as generalized linear mixed effect models with latent variables, by using outputs from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Further, the proposed testing can be implemented without prior information. Some applications are presented, and the simulation results are provided to compare the powers of this method with those of other methods of conventional multiple comparisons. Simulation studies have shown that the proposed method is valid for multiple comparisons under nonequivalent variances and mean comparisons in latent variable modeling with categorical variables. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Allometric Extension Model for Conditional Distributions

Hiroshi Kurata, Takahiro Hoshino, Yasunori Fujikoshi

Journal of Multivariate Analysis （Journal of Multivariate Analysis）  99 （ 9 ） 1985 - 1998 2008年

共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  0047259X

　概要を見る

When two groups are present, they are said to form an allometric model, if one group is the extension of the other group along the main axis of variation. The model is widely used in the context of principal component analysis, especially for the description of growth processes of creatures. In this paper, the notion of allometric extension model is applied to conditional distributions. More specifically, we derive a sufficient condition, for which the two conditional distributions given the sign of the first principal component form an allometric extension model. © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

• Access to Document (DOI)

構造方程式モデリングにおける検定統計量のBartlett補正

岡田 謙介, 星野 崇宏, 繁桝 算男

教育心理学研究 （Japanese Journal of Educational Psychology）  55 （ 3 ） 382 - 392 2007年09月

共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  215015

　概要を見る

Model selection is one of the most important steps in the application of structural equation modeling (SEM). In this process, the likelihood ratio test statistic, T, is a commonly employed index. Hypothesis testing can be performed on the basis that T asymptotically follows the χ2 distribution. Various fit indices have been proposed, most of which are based on the assumption that T asymptotically follows the χ2 distribution. When the size of the sample is small, however, the distribution of T deviates considerably from the χ2 distribution. This problem, especially pronounced when there is a large number of indicators per factor, is serious because it violates the theoretical justification of utilizing for model selection not only T, but also many other fit indices. In the present article, we propose a Bartlett correction of T to improve its approximation to the χ2 distribution. When the efficacy of our method was evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation, the results showed that this method was superior to the current standard.

• Access to Document (DOI)

学習科学研究の妥当性向上へ向けた統計解析法と複数データの統合手法について--傾向スコアによる共変量調整とデータフュージョン

星野 崇宏

教育システム情報学会誌 （教育システム情報学会編集事務局）  24 （ 3 ） 216 - 224 2007年

単著,  ISSN  13414135

Doubly Robust type Estimation for Covariate Adjustment in Latent Variable Modeling

Takahiro Hoshino

Psychometrika （Psychometrika）  72 （ 4 ） 535 - 549 2007年

単著, 査読有り,  ISSN  00333123

　概要を見る

Due to the difficulty in achieving a random assignment, a quasi-experimental or observational study design is frequently used in the behavioral and social sciences. If a nonrandom assignment depends on the covariates, multiple group structural equation modeling, that includes the regression function of the dependent variables on the covariates that determine the assignment, can provide reasonable estimates under the condition of correct specification of the regression function. However, it is usually difficult to specify the correct regression function because the dimensions of the dependent variables and covariates are typically large. Therefore, the propensity score adjustment methods have been proposed, since they do not require the specification of the regression function and have been applied to several applied studies. However, these methods produce biased estimates if the assignment mechanism is incorrectly specified. In order to make a more robust inference, it would be more useful to develop an estimation method that integrates the regression approach with the propensity score methodology. In this study we propose a doubly robust-type estimation method for marginal multiple group structural equation modeling. This method provides a consistent estimator if either the regression function or the assignment mechanism is correctly specified. A simulation study indicates that the proposed estimation method is more robust than the existing methods. © 2007 Psychometric Society.

• Access to Document (DOI)

インターネット調査に対する共変量調整法のマーケティングリサーチへの適用と調整効果の再現性の検討

星野　崇宏

行動計量学 （The Behaviormetric Society of Japan）  34 （ 1 ） 33 - 48 2007年

単著, 査読有り

　概要を見る

We showed that the propensity score weighted M-estimation method proposed by Hoshino (2005) can be applied in order to adjust for the bias in sampling surveys for marketing research. Further, using real data sets, we investigated the capabilities and the limitations of the propensity score adjustment method to the adjustment of the biased internet surveys and demonstrated the validity of Hoshino's method. By using the covariates selected the method proposed by Hoshino and Maeda (2006) in two similar surveys, we found that the effectiveness of the adjustment method using the propensity score...

Decline or improvement?: age-related differences in facial expression recognition

Atsunobu Suzuki, Takahiro Hoshino, Kazuo Shigemasu, Mitsuru Kawamura

Biological Psychology （Biological Psychology）  74 （ 1 ） 75 - 84 2007年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  03010511

　概要を見る

We examined age-related differences in facial expression recognition in association with potentially interfering variables such as general cognitive ability (verbal and visuospatial abilities), face recognition ability, and the experiences of positive and negative emotions. Participants comprised 34 older (aged 62-81 years) and 34 younger (aged 18-25 years) healthy Japanese adults. The results showed not only age-related decline in sadness recognition but also age-related improvement in disgust recognition. Among other variables, visuospatial ability was moderately related to facial expression recognition in general, and the experience of negative emotions was related to sadness recognition. Consequently, age-related decline in sadness recognition was statistically explained by age-related decrease in the experience of negative emotions. On the other hand, age-related improvement in disgust recognition was not explained by the interfering variables, and it reflected a higher tendency in the younger participants to mistake disgust for anger. Possible mechanisms are discussed in terms of neurobiological and socio-environmental factors. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Simpler Calculation of Posterior Distributions of the Parameters in Structural Equation Model

Kazuo Shigemasu, Takahiro Hoshino

Bayesian Statistics and its Applications (S.K.Upadhyay, & D.K.Dey,eds)    396 - 406 2007年

研究論文（学術雑誌）, 共著, 査読有り

認知的ソーシャルキャピタルとしての法意識・規範意識・契約観と対人信頼感の関連 : 東アジア価値観国際比較調査データから(<特集>「東アジア価値観国際比較調査」その2)

星野 崇宏

行動計量学 （日本行動計量学会）  33 （ 1 ） 41 - 53 2006年03月

単著, 査読有り,  ISSN  3855481

傾向スコアを用いた補正法の有意抽出による標本調査への応用と共変量の選択法の提案

星野　崇宏, 前田　忠彦

統計数理 54 （ 1 ） 191 - 206 2006年

単著, 査読有り

Disgust-specific impairment of facial expression recognition in Parkinson’s disease

Atsunobu Suzuki, Takahiro Hoshino, Kazuo Shigemasu, Mitsuru Kawamura

Brain （Brain）  129 （ 3 ） 707 - 717 2006年

共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  00068950

　概要を見る

There is contradictory evidence regarding whether the impairments of the recognition of emotional facial expressions in Parkinson's disease are specific to certain emotions such as disgust and fear. Generally, neurological case reports on emotion-specific impairments have been suspected of being confounded with the factor of task difficulty. Using a refined assessment method in which the difficulty factors were controlled by means of mixed facial expressions and item response theory, we attempted to clarify whether Parkinson's disease disproportionately impaired the recognition of specific emotions. We studied 14 patients with Parkinson's disease and 39 healthy controls who were matched in terms of gender, age, years of education and intelligence quotient. Whereas the refined method revealed that the patients with Parkinson's disease displayed significantly lower scores in disgust recognition alone, conventional methods failed to detect this impairment. In addition, control measures including face recognition abilities did not statistically explain the impairment observed in the patients. The results indicate that Parkinson's disease can indeed selectively impair the recognition of facial expressions of disgust; this provides concrete evidence for emotion-specific impairments that sufficiently withstands criticisms regarding the difficulty artefacts. Furthermore, the results support the proposed role of the basal ganglia-insula system in disgust recognition. This study effectively demonstrates the benefits of refining neuropsychological assessment by taking advantage of the modern psychometric theory. © The Author (2006). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Measuring Individual Differences in Sensitivities to Basic Emotions in Faces

Atsunobu Suzuki, Takahiro Hoshino, Kazuo Shigemasu

Cognition （Cognition）  99 （ 3 ） 327 - 353 2006年

共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  00100277

　概要を見る

The assessment of individual differences in facial expression recognition is normally required to address two major issues: (1) high agreement level (ceiling effect) and (2) differential difficulty levels across emotions. We propose a new assessment method designed to quantify individual differences in the recognition of the six basic emotions, 'sensitivities to basic emotions in faces.' We attempted to address the two major assessment issues by using morphing techniques and item response theory (IRT). We used morphing to create intermediate, mixed facial expression stimuli with various levels of recognition difficulty. Applying IRT enabled us to estimate the individual latent trait levels underlying the recognition of respective emotions (sensitivity scores), unbiased by stimulus properties that constitute difficulty. In a series of two experiments we demonstrated that the sensitivity scores successfully addressed the two major assessment issues and their concomitant individual variability. Intriguingly, correlational analyses of the sensitivity scores to different emotions produced orthogonality between happy and non-happy emotion recognition. To our knowledge, this is the first report of the independence of happiness recognition, unaffected by stimulus difficulty. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

• Access to Document (DOI)

傾向スコアを用いた共変量調整による因果効果の推定と臨床医学・疫学・薬学・公衆衛生分野での応用について

星野　崇宏, 岡田　謙介

保健医療科学 55 （ 3 ） 230 - 242 2006年

単著, 査読有り

A Propensity Score Adjustment for Multiple Group Structural Equation Modeling

Takahiro Hoshino, Hiroshi Kurata, Kazuo Shigemasu

Psychometrika （Psychometrika）  71 （ 4 ） 691 - 712 2006年

共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  00333123

　概要を見る

In the behavioral and social sciences, quasi-experimental and observational studies are used due to the difficulty achieving a random assignment. However, the estimation of differences between groups in observational studies frequently suffers from bias due to differences in the distributions of covariates. To estimate average treatment effects when the treatment variable is binary, Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983a) proposed adjustment methods for pretreatment variables using the propensity score. However, these studies were interested only in estimating the average causal effect and/or marginal means. In the behavioral and social sciences, a general estimation method is required to estimate parameters in multiple group structural equation modeling where the differences of covariates are adjusted. We show that a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimator, propensity score weighted M estimator (PWME) is consistent, even when we use estimated propensity scores, and the asymptotic variance of the PWME is shown to be less than that with true propensity scores. Furthermore, we show that the asymptotic distribution of the propensity score weighted statistic under a null hypothesis is a weighted sum of independent χ12 variables. We show the method can compare latent variable means with covariates adjusted using propensity scores, which was not feasible by previous methods. We also apply the proposed method for correlated longitudinal binary responses with informative dropout using data from the Longitudinal Study of Aging (LSOA). The results of a simulation study indicate that the proposed estimation method is more robust than the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method, in that PWME does not require the knowledge of the relationships among dependent variables and covariates. © 2007 The Psychometric Society.

• Access to Document (DOI)

恒常法により推定された閾値間の統計的有意差検定法

永井　岳大, 星野　崇宏, 内川　惠二

日本視覚学会誌 18   113 - 123 2006年

単著, 査読有り

構造方程式モデリングにおける適合度指標とモデル改善について : 展望とシミュレーション研究による新たな知見

星野 崇宏, 岡田 謙介, 前田 忠彦

行動計量学 （日本行動計量学会）  32 （ 2 ） 209 - 235 2005年09月

共著, 査読有り,  ISSN  3855481

因子スコアや潜在変数得点を用いた構造方程式モデルの母数推定の偏りの解決

光永　悠彦, 星野　崇宏, 繁桝　算男, 前川　眞一

行動計量学 32   21 - 33 2005年

単著, 査読有り

A Latent Variable Model with non-ignorable missing data

Takahiro Hoshino

Behaviormetrika 32   71 - 93 2005年

単著, 査読有り

高齢者における表情認識

鈴木　敦命, 星野　崇宏, 河村　満

高次脳機能研究 25 （ 3 ） 233 - 241 2005年

単著, 査読有り,  ISSN  1348-4818|1880-6554

• Access to Document (DOI)

欠測群の周辺分布の母数に対する傾向スコアを用いた重み付きM推定量の提案と介入効果研究への応用

星野　崇宏

行動計量学 （The Behaviormetric Society of Japan）  32 （ 2 ） 121 - 132 2005年

単著, 査読有り

　概要を見る

We propose a propensity score weighted M-estimation method for marginal parametric models for groups in which all subjects are missing. It is shown that the propose estimator is consistent and its limiting distribution is normal. We also propose a hypothetsis testing method using the proposed estimator. Using the proposed method, we estimate the intervention effect of maternal smoking during pregnancy on the development of the child's cognitive functioning from data obtained from the US National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth.

Interrelationship among the recognition of the six basic emotions in faces

Atsunobu Suzuki, Takahiro Hoshino, Kazuo Shigemasu

Japanese Journal of psychonomic society 23   107 - 108 2004年

共著, 査読有り

• Access to Document (DOI)

Bayesian Procrustes Solution

Kazuo Shigemasu, Takahiro Hoshino

Behaviormetrika 31   1 - 13 2004年

共著, 査読有り

傾向スコア解析法による因果効果の推定と調査データの調整について

星野　崇宏,　繁桝　算男

行動計量学 （The Behaviormetric Society of Japan）  31 （ 1 ） 43 - 61 2004年

共著, 査読有り

　概要を見る

In behavioral sciences, it is often difficult to execute an experimental study with random assignment. Therefore researchers usually do a quasi-experiment or a survey study without random assignment. However, under these studies the distributions of the covariates that would affect dependent variables usually differ with the values of the independent variables. To eliminate the influence of the covariates, various adjustment methods such as analysis of covariance have been applied to these data. Recently new adjustment methods using the propensity score proposed by Rosenbaum & Rubin (1983) ...

[Stagewise estimation for regression analysis when independent variables are latent variables].

Hoshino T

Shinrigaku kenkyu : The Japanese journal of psychology 74 （ 3 ） 218 - 26 2003年08月

ISSN  0021-5236

Stagewise estimation for regression analysis when independent variables are latent variables

Hoshino T.

Shinrigaku Kenkyu （Shinrigaku Kenkyu）  74 （ 3 ） 218 - 226 2003年08月

ISSN  00215236

　概要を見る

Psychological research often deals with psychological constructs that cannot be directly measured. Thus independent variables of regression analysis for an observable dependent variable are sometimes latent variables (factors) that are defined independently of the dependent variable. In this study we pointed out the problem associated with the use of factor analysis for the combined set of dependent variable and independent variables in such a cases; that is, the derived factors are different from those originally intended, and the true regression parameters cannot be reproduced. We proposed a stagewise estimation method to solve the problem. This method estimates parameters of measurement equation in the first stage, and then estimates parameters of structural equation in the second stage. Our proposed method enables calculation of standard errors of estimators using Bootstrapping method. Numerical studies showed that the proposed method improves the estimation efficiency over the conventional methods, and provides estimates which are robust with respect to misspecification of model.

• Access to Document (DOI)

調査データに対する傾向スコアの適用(<特集>品質経営のための調査の方法)

星野 崇宏

品質 （社団法人日本品質管理学会）  33 （ 3 ） 44 - 51 2003年07月

単著, 査読有り,  ISSN  3868230

潜在変数への観測変数の回帰に関する問題と段階推定による解決

星野　崇宏

心理学研究 74 （ 3 ） 218 - 226 2003年

単著, 査読有り

Market Segmentation Method From the Bayesian Viewpoint

Kazuo Shigemasu, Takuya Ohmori, Takahiro Hoshino

Between Data Science And Applied Data Analysis    595 - 602 2003年

共著, 査読有り

精神病理の症状と性格5因子モデルとの関係

佐々木 淳, 星野 崇宏, 丹野 義彦

教育心理学研究 （Japanese Journal of Educational Psychology）  50 （ 1 ） 65 - 72 2002年03月

共著,  ISSN  215015

　概要を見る

The purpose of the present study was to confirm the structure of scales measuring dominant psychopathologies, such as depression, anxiety, delusional ideation, and obsessional-compulsive disorder, in the context of the view of personality as a predispositional factor. Scales were administered to 362 university students. In Study 1, 14 subscales were subjected to a principal axis factor analysis with oblique rotation. Four factors were obtained. Factor 1 was mainly delusional ideations with negative emotion; Factor 2, depression, anxiety, and 2 psychopathologies of obsessional compulsive disorder; Factor 3, delusional ideation with positive emotion; and Factor 4, 2 psychopathologies of obsessional compulsive disorder. In Study 2, we calculated the correlations among the psychopathology and personality scales, and found that the variables in each factor showed the same pattern of correlation with personality. In Study 3, we used structural equation modeling in order to investigate the correlations among latent variables and personality. Each latent variable showed a different pattern of correlation with personality. We obtained a structure of psychopathology that reflected personality.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Bayesian Analysis of Structural Equation Modeling

Kazuo Shigemasu, Takuya Ohmori, Takahiro Hoshino

Measurement and Multivariate Analysis    207 - 216 2002年

共著, 査読有り

多次元項目反応理論での相関のある特性値の線形結合に関するテスト情報関数

星野　崇宏

教育心理学研究 （Japanese Journal of Educational Psychology）  49 （ 4 ） 491 - 499 2001年

単著, 査読有り,  ISSN  00215015

　概要を見る

In educational evaluation and psychological measurement, we often measure traits that contain several sub-traits. When tests, such as entrance examinations, are used for decision-making, often test users do not evaluate the sub-traits directly, but rather evaluate the linear combination of sub-traits in which weights were pre-specified by the test users. In the present research, we propose a new test information function and item information that enable us to evaluate linear combinations of sub-traits in which the traits are correlated. Nuisance dimensions of linear combinations are integrated out in the proposed information function. This will enable test editing in which linear combinations of sub-traits can be evaluated prior to executing the test. We also propose a method for comparing values of information functions that have different weights and/or different correlations. A numerical simulation study showed the validity of our methods. We also applied our methods to the item pool of Geometry and Statistics of the 1996 NAEP test.

ベイズ的アプローチによる因子平均の群間差・線形対比の有意性検定

星野　崇宏, 橋本　貴充, 繁桝　算男

教育心理学研究 （Japanese Journal of Educational Psychology）  49 （ 1 ） 31 - 40 2001年

単著, 査読有り,  ISSN  00215015

　概要を見る

The present article proposes Bayesian inference for multiple group factor analysis, via a Gibbs sampling algorithm. When this method is used, a significance test for the difference of factor means between groups and a test for linear contrast can be done to determine whether a point hypothesis is in the Bayesian canfidemce interval of the posterior distribution. Baysian inference is not used in research in educational psychology because of its arbitrariness in the selection of the prior distribution. However, all the methods described in the present article can be done with a noninformative prior distribution, thus excluding subjectivity. As a result, researchers will be able to use Bayesian inference easily and objectively. In order to compare the proposed method with a x2 asymptotic likelihood test in terms of their respective power, 1400 simulation data sets for N = 160 and N = 80 were generated. The proposed method has some advantages over the x2 test in that control of Type-1 errors is complete with small-sized samples, and also in that the Haywood case problem does not occur. The proposed method was used to analyze the relationship of age and intelligence as measured by the WAIS-R, and a composite hypothesis was evaluated.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Bayesian Inference for Finite Mixtures in Confirmatory Factor Analysis

Takahiro Hoshino

Behaviormetrika 28   37 - 64 2001年

単著, 査読有り