Papers - Fujiwara Ippei

Automation and Disappearing Routine Occupations in Japan

S Kikuchi, I Fujiwara, T Shirota

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 74 2024.12

ISSN  08891583

　View Summary

We examine the implications of automation technology in Japan since 1980, comparing different local labor markets with different degrees of automation exposure. First, we do not find evidence that automation reduces employment rate within demographic groups and automation encourages workers to move from regular to non-regular employment. Second, we show that automation shifts employment from routine occupations in the manufacturing sector to service sectors, while increasing the share of establishments and sales in the manufacturing sector. Finally, we show that this shift in labor demand is attributed to younger generations and non-college-educated workers.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Institute for Economic Studies, Keio University

I Fujiwara, Y Hirose

 2024

Connecting Exchange Rates to Fundamentals Under Indeterminacy

I Fujiwara, Y Hirose

Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series  2024

A Technology-Gap Model of ‘Premature’Deindustrialization

I Fujiwara, K Matsuyama

American Economic Review 114 (11), 3714-3745  2024

Re-Examining What We Can Learn About Counterfactual Results from Time Series Regression

I Fujiwara, A Pagan

CAMA Working Papers  2024

Aging and the real interest rate in Japan: A labor market channel

S Fujita, I Fujiwara

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 69, 101262 (Journal of the Japanese and International Economies)  69 2023.09

ISSN  08891583

　View Summary

This paper explores a causal link between aging of the labor force and the declining trend in the real interest rate in Japan. We develop a search and matching model that features heterogeneous workers with respect to their ages and firm-specific skills. Using the model, we examine the long-run implications of the sharp drop in labor force entry in the 1970s. We show that the changes in the demographic structure induce significant low-frequency movements in per capita consumption growth and thus the real interest rate. The model suggests that aging of the labor force caused the real interest rate to decline by 1 percentage point between 1980 and 2010 in Japan.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Automation and the disappearance of routine work in japan

S Kikuchi, I Fujiwara, T Shirota

Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)  2023

Automation and the Disappearance of Routine Work in Japan

K Shinnosuke, F Ippei, S Toyoichiro

Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) Discussion papers  2023

Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle and Sunspot Fluctuations

I Fujiwara, Y Hirose

 2023

The Delphic forward guidance puzzle in New Keynesian models

I Fujiwara, Y Waki

Review of Economic Dynamics 46, 280-301 (Review of Economic Dynamics)  46   280 - 301 2022.10

ISSN  10942025

　View Summary

When the central bank has information that can help the private sector better predict the future, should it communicate such information to the public? In purely forward-looking New Keynesian models, such Delphic forward guidance unambiguously reduces ex ante welfare by increasing the variability of inflation and the output gap. We call this phenomenon the Delphic forward guidance puzzle. In more elaborate models with endogenous state variables, a combination of Delphic forward guidance and preemptive policy actions may improve welfare. However, full information revelation is generally not optimal and what information needs to be revealed is highly model-dependent.

• Access to Document (DOI)

Competition and the Phillips Curve

I Fujiwara, K Matsuyama

Centre for Economic Policy Research  2022

Comment on “The welfare implications of massive money injection: The Japanese experience from 2013 to 2020”

I Fujiwara

Asian Economic Policy Review 16 (2), 243-244 (Asian Economic Policy Review)  16 ( 2 ) 243 - 244 2021.07

ISSN  18328105

• Access to Document (DOI)

Robot Penetration and Task Changes

A Kosuke, F Ippei, S Toyoichiro

Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) Discussion papers  2021

Exchange rate disconnect and the general equilibrium puzzle

Y Chen, I Fujiwara, Y Hirose

CAMA Working Paper  2021

Japan's uncertain fiscal outlook

I Fujiwara

East Asia Forum Quarterly 13 (3), 5-6  2021

Measuring Robot Quality: Has Quality Improvement Slowed Down?

F Ippei, K Ryo, S Shigenori, S Toyoichiro

Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) Discussion papers  2021

Measuring Robot Quality: Has Quality Improvement Slowed Down?

I Fujiwara, R Kimoto, S Shiratsuka, T Shirota

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP16556  2021

Robot Penetration and Task Changes

K Arai, I Fujiwara, T Shirota

Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)  2021

Comment on" The Welfare Implications of Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience from 2013 to 2020".

M Fukao

Asian Economic Policy Review 16 (2)  2021

Robots and labour: implications for inflation dynamics

I Fujiwara, F Zhu

BIS Paper  2020