Hirose, Yasuo



Faculty of Economics (Mita)



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Career 【 Display / hide

  • 2000.04

    Bank of Japan

  • 2010.04

    Keio University, Faculty of Economics, Associate Professor

  • 2017.04

    Keio University, Faculty of Economics, Professor

Academic Background 【 Display / hide

  • 2000.03

    Keio University, Faculty of Policy Management

    University, Graduated

  • 2006.12

    Johns Hopkins University, Graduate School, Department of Economics

    U.S.A., Graduate School, Completed, Doctoral course

Academic Degrees 【 Display / hide

  • Ph.D., Johns Hopkins University, Coursework, 2007.05


Research Areas 【 Display / hide

  • Macroeconomics

  • Monetary Economics


Books 【 Display / hide

  • Methods for Empirical Macroeconomic Analysis with DSGE models (DSGE Model ni-yoru Macro Jisshou Bunseki no Houhou, in Japanese)

    HIROSE Yasuo, Mitsubishi Economic Research Institute, 2012.06

Papers 【 Display / hide

  • Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited

    Yasuo Hirose, Takushi Kurozumi, Willem Van Zandweghe

    Review of Economic Dynamics (Elsevier)  37   255 - 274 2020.07

    Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted,  ISSN  10942025

     View Summary

    A large literature has established the view that the Fed's change from a passive to an active policy response to inflation led to U.S. macroeconomic stability after the Great Inflation of the 1970s. We revisit this view by estimating a generalized New Keynesian model using a full-information Bayesian method that allows for indeterminacy of equilibrium and adopts a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm. The estimated model empirically outperforms canonical New Keynesian models that confirm the literature's view. It also points to substantial uncertainty about whether the policy response to inflation was active or passive during the Great Inflation. More importantly, a more active policy response to inflation alone does not suffice for explaining the U.S. macroeconomic stability, unless it is accompanied by a change in either trend inflation or policy responses to the output gap and output growth. This extends the literature by emphasizing the importance of the changes in other aspects of monetary policy in addition to its response to inflation.

  • An Estimated DSGE Model with a Deflation Steady State

    Yasuo Hirose

    Macroeconomic Dynamics (Cambridge University Press)  24 ( 5 ) 1151 - 1185 2020.07

    Research paper (scientific journal), Single Work, Accepted,  ISSN  1365-1005

     View Summary

    Benhabib et al. [(2001) Journal of Economic Theory 96, 40–69] argue that there exists a deflation steady state when the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate is considered in a Taylor-type monetary policy rule. This paper estimates a medium-scale DSGE model with a deflation steady state for the Japanese economy during the period from 1999 to 2013, when the Bank of Japan conducted a zero interest rate policy and the inflation rate was almost always negative. Although the model exhibits equilibrium indeterminacy around the deflation steady state, a set of specific equilibria is selected by Bayesian methods. According to the estimated model, positive shocks to households’ preferences and wage markup, and a negative shock to monetary policy do not necessarily have an inflationary effect, in contrast to a standard model with a targeted-inflation steady state. An economy in the deflation equilibrium could experience unexpected volatility because of sunspot fluctuations, but it turns out that sunspot shocks have a limited effect on Japan’s output fluctuations and rather contribute to stabilizing the economy after the global financial crisis.

  • Review of Solution and Estimation Methods for Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models with the Zero Lower Bound

    Yasuo Hirose and Takeki Sunakawa

    Japanese Economic Review (Wiley)  70 ( 1 ) 51 - 104 2019.03

    Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted,  ISSN  13524739

     View Summary

    © 2019 Japanese Economic Association We review solution and estimation methods for nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models and their application, with a special focus on the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate. In a fully nonlinear setting, both the solution and estimation methods involve iterative procedures, and their computational expense grows rapidly with an increase in the dimensionality of state variables and parameters. We describe how the procedures deal with the dimensionality problem.

  • Identifying News Shocks with Forecast Data

    Yasuo Hirose and Takushi Kurozumi

    Macroeconomic Dynamics (Cambridge University Press)  forthcoming 2019

    Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted,  ISSN  13651005

     View Summary

    The empirical importance of news shocks - anticipated future shocks - in business cycle fluctuations has been explored by using only actual data when estimating models augmented with news shocks. This paper additionally exploits forecast data to identify news shocks in a canonical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The estimated model shows new empirical evidence that technology news shocks are a major source of fluctuations in US output growth. Exploiting the forecast data not only generates more precise estimates of news shocks and other parameters in the model, but also increases the contribution of technology news shocks to the fluctuations.

  • Changes in the Federal Reserve Communication Strategy: A Structural Investigation

    Yasuo Hirose and Takushi Kurozumi

    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (Wiley-Blackwell)  49 ( 1 ) 171 - 185 2017.02

    Research paper (scientific journal), Joint Work, Accepted

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Presentations 【 Display / hide

  • Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited

    Yasuo Hirose

    (EC)^2 Conference on Identication in Macroeconomics (University of Oxford) , 2019.12, Oral Presentation(general)

  • Is Exchange Rate Disconnected After All?

    Yasuo Hirose

    Annual West Coast Workshop in International Finance (University of Washington) , 2019.11, Oral Presentation(general)

  • Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited

    Yasuo Hirose

    International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance (Carleton University) , 2019.06, Oral Presentation(general)

  • Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited

    Yasuo Hirose

    Summer Workshop on Economic Theory (Hokkaido University) , 2018.08, Oral Presentation(general)

  • Solution and Estimation Methods for Nonlinear DSGE Models

    Yasuo Hirose and Takeki Sunakawa

    Japanese Economic Association Spring Meeting (University of Hyogo) , 2018.06, Public discourse, seminar, tutorial, course, lecture and others

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Research Projects of Competitive Funds, etc. 【 Display / hide

  • Estimation of nonlinear DSGE models and their application to macroeconomic analysis


    MEXT,JSPS, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research, 廣瀬 康生, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Principal Investigator


Courses Taught 【 Display / hide











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